2023 Week 15 Top DFS Values

NFL DFS is a tough game. But whether you are playing cash games or tournaments, you need to be acutely aware of the slate’s top values.

These are the best plays of the slate once price, matchup, median projection, and a player’s floor and ceiling are factored in.

You’ll want to maximize your exposure to these players in cash games (50/50s, head-to-head contests, etc). And you’ll be mixing these players into your tournament lineups alongside some of our favorite GPP plays – which are discussed in Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

It’s important to note that ownership will not be a factor in this article. These are simply the best values of the slate once all other variables are considered. Plays are listed in descending order of salary, but a full ranking of the slate’s best plays in order can be found in Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

QB

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (VS. WAS)

DraftKings: $6,000 (QB11) | FanDuel: $7,200 (QB11)

Stafford put an end to his fantasy downswing with 10 TDs and 23.7 DraftKings FPG over his last three games. With Stafford once again finding his groove, why wouldn’t we want to play him against the league’s worst passing defense? The Commanders are (by far) the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing passers (+7.0 passing FPG). Washington is so bad they’ve allowed over 22.0 DraftKings points to Desmond Ridder, Geno Smith, and Tommy DeVito. We’ve been targeting QBs facing this defense all year, and that won’t change in Week 15. Stafford is the top QB value on both sites.

RB

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers (@ ARI)

DraftKings: $9,300 (RB1) | FanDuel: $10,500 (RB1)

McCaffrey is a god. (You know this.) The 49ers have a 30.0-point implied total, and he gets a Cardinals defense that is giving up an absurd +8.3 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs over the last 5 weeks, and +5.3 across the full season (2nd-most). The last time these teams played, CMC scored 51.7 DraftKings points – the 13th-highest fantasy score by a RB since 2010. If you are paying up for anybody in cash games this week, it’s McCaffrey.

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams (VS. WAS)

DraftKings: $7,500 (RB3) | FanDuel: $9,600 (RB2)

Christian McCaffrey is the closest thing we’ve seen to LaDainian Tomlinson since LaDainian Tomlinson. And the only other RB who comes close is probably peak-Todd Gurley (2017-2018). And while Kyren Williams isn’t quite peak Todd Gurley, nor is he 2023 Christian McCaffrey, he’s probably the other RB we currently have who comes close. In 9 games, Williams ranks 1st in snap share (83.2%), 3rd in XFP/G (18.5), 1st in red zone XFP/G (7.5), and 3rd in FPG (20.4)… Everyone wants to play Matthew Stafford against this pillow-soft Commanders’ pass defense. But Washington’s run defense has been just as bad, giving up a league-high +8.8 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+8.8). Williams is a top-3 value at the position on DraftKings and a viable cash game play – but Christian McCaffrey takes priority in that format, of course.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ GB)

DraftKings: $7,000 (RB7) | FanDuel: $7,600 (RB9)

Rachaad White is Mr. Consistency – as we’ve been saying. He’s finished top-13 at the position in DraftKings (DK) fantasy points scored in 8 straight games. Counting backwards, he’s finished: 4th, 10th, 12th, 13th, 12th, 1st, 12th, 13th. Over this span (since Week 7), he leads all RBs in both snaps and XFP, while ranking behind only Christian McCaffrey in total fantasy points…And now he draws a Packers that is giving up 25.7 DK FPG to opposing RBs over their last 5 games. White is a top-5 RB value on both sites, just barely outside of the cash game conversation.

Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys (@ BUF)

DraftKings: $6,700 (RB11) | FanDuel: $7,000 (RB12)

The Cowboys turned into a pass-first team in Week 8, but that hasn’t hampered Pollard’s volume – he’s averaging 15.9 XFP/G since Dak Prescott started breaking every slate. Over the full season, 15.9 XFP/G would rank 6th-best among slate-eligible RBs. Last week, Pollard did end up with 16 carries plus 8 targets, and could see similar target volume again this week, against a Buffalo defense that surrenders the 2nd-highest check-down rate in what is clearly the best offensive environment of the slate (50.5 total). Pollard is a top-3 value (and cash game viable) on FanDuel, and a top-6 RB value on DraftKings.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, New England Patriots (VS. KC)

DraftKings: $5,800 (RB17) | FanDuel: $6,500 (RB16)

Last week, Elliott played on 91% of the team’s snaps (but 100% of the RB snaps), earning 22 carries and 8 targets (23.3% target share). This is legitimately insane (super rare, super valuable) usage. And Elliott was shockingly efficient/productive last week, leading the position with 27.0 fantasy points. Even in a tough matchup (although Kansas City has struggled against RBs in recent weeks) and behind a disgustingly low implied point total (14.5), Elliott is still one of the best values on the slate… But if you’re looking for an argument to fade him in tournaments it’s “Well, he’s Ezekiel Elliott and he’s chalk.”

Antonio Gibson, WR, Washington Commanders (@ LAR)

DraftKings: $5,200 (RB23) | FanDuel: $5,600 (RB30)

After Brian Robinson went down last week, Gibson played on 69% of the team’s snaps, handling 8 of 15 carries, 12 of 12 routes, and 4 of 4 targets out of the backfield. With a key caveat being that Chris Rodriguez earned 7 carries…This week, Gibson should really dominate the backfield – because the Rams are 6.5-point favorites, and Gibson is of the skillset that thrives in negative gamescript. And the matchup is also favorable for Gibson – over the last 5 weeks, the Rams are giving up the 3rd-most receiving schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+3.3), but the 4th-fewest to RBs on the ground (-3.0).

WR

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys (@ BUF)

DraftKings: $9,200 (WR2) | FanDuel: $9,200 (WR2)

You can argue this matchup is favorable – Buffalo has struggled against slot WRs in recent weeks, and they funnel volume towards the short-to-intermediate levels of the field where Lamb feasts. You can argue (probably more convincingly) that this is a much tougher matchup than the field thinks… Ultimately, I don’t think it really matters all that much when Lamb has easily been the most valuable player in fantasy over the last two months of the season – Lamb has scored at least 16.5 DK fantasy points in 8 straight games, averaging an obscene 28.6 DK FPG over this stretch (most of any player at any position). Lamb is a strong value for those who can afford to pay up at WR, but make no mistake – Christian McCaffrey is a much stronger play in cash formats.

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams (VS. WAS)

DraftKings: $7,300 (WR8) | FanDuel: $8,000 (WR7)

Nacua is on pace to tie Ja’Marr Chase’s modern rookie receiving record, and he’s clearly underpriced on this slate – ranking 5th among slate-eligible WRs in DraftKings FPG (18.3) and 4th in XFP/G (18.4), despite being priced as the WR8 by DraftKings salary. But we want to play Nacua this week mainly because of his outstanding matchup. Nacua isn’t quite a cash game play, but he’s still an outstanding value, and we prefer him over Cooper Kupp in all formats this week.

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets (@ MIA)

DraftKings: $5,800 (WR17) | FanDuel: $6,900 (WR16)

Last week Garrett Wilson led all WRs in XFP (28.3) and first-read target share (47.6%). He’s now seen at least 12 targets and gained at least 80 receiving yards in 5 of his last 6 games with Zach Wilson under center. Over this span, he ranks 1st in XFP/G (22.3) and 14th in FPG (14.8). Somehow, he’s priced as just the WR18 on DraftKings this week ($5,800)… Miami ranks 6th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing WRs (+4.0) and 7th-worst in FPG allowed to opposing WR1s (18.3). In some ways, Wilson profiles as the perfect DFS value. That’s probably true for cash games, but this contest has some serious weather concerns, and, of course, Zach Wilson is throwing the football for New York. So, he’s relatively easy to get away from in tournaments if you need to save on ownership.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (@ NE)

DraftKings: $6,100 (WR15) | FanDuel: $6,500 (WR19)

Don’t look now, but Rashee Rice is finally a full-time player – logging a career-high 82% route share on Sunday. He’s run a route on over 60% of the team’s dropbacks in three straight games, and that’s led to 17.1 XFP/G and 20.4 FPG – marks that rank 11th and 4th among all WRs over the full season. On a per-route basis, Rice is earning targets at a higher rate than Travis Kelce, CeeDee Lamb, and Mike Evans. This week, he draws a New England defense that’s been one of the three softest schedule-adjusted matchups for opposing WRs since Week 7. He’s one of the strongest plays of the slate on DraftKings.

Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers (VS. TB)

DraftKings: $4,900 (WR25) | FanDuel: $6,100 (WR27)

Without Christian Watson, Reed’s route share has jumped from 59% to 67%. That might not seem like much, but Reed ranks 18th of 96 qualifying WRs in FP/RR (0.52). This means if he had this route share all year, he’d be averaging an extra +1.7 FPG. Reed also gets an excellent on-paper matchup – Tampa Bay is giving up the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot WRs (+3.4). It’s a near-perfect spot for a clearly underpriced Reed, but you can certainly question the upside for tournaments, as nearly 25% of his usage this year has come from designed throws and rush attempts.

Demarcus Robinson, WR, Los Angeles Rams (VS. WAS)

DraftKings: $3,600 (WR38) | FanDuel: $5,600 (WR32)

Atwell suffered a game-ending concussion early in the 4th quarter of last week’s game. Robinson took full advantage of this opportunity; his route share ballooned up to 93%, which allowed him to see 179 air yards (48.5% air yardage share) and 10 targets (24.4% target share), including 3 end zone targets. He finished the week, ranking 6th among WRs in XFP (22.7), scoring 13.6 fantasy points… With Atwell unlikely to return for this week’s game, and Robinson up against the league’s worst secondary, he pops as a top DFS value this week, priced at just $600 off of the site minimum on DraftKings.

TE

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs (@ NE)

DraftKings: $7,600 (TE1) | FanDuel: $7,500 (TE1)

Kelce is having his worst year (for fantasy purposes) since 2019, but he’s still the TE1 by nearly every metric, and most importantly: fantasy points. It’s tricky to make a compelling upside case for Kelce with his production at 4-year lows in an offense that’s merely ‘good’ instead of ‘all-time great’, but we can at least say this – he’s clearly a top positional value on FanDuel due to their pricing dynamics. Kelce costs you as much as the WR11 on FD and is merely $900 more expensive than Trey McBride despite projecting multiple points better industry-wide. He’s a justifiable fade in tournaments, but a clear value over on FanDuel.

Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals (VS. SF)

DraftKings: $5,200 (TE5) | FanDuel: $6,600 (TE4)

McBride has a brutal matchup (bottom-5 schedule-adjusted), but everything else about him screams value, especially if he’s viewed as a WR. McBride is the cash game play on DraftKings but merely a solid value on FanDuel due to the nature of FD’s TE pricing.

Chig Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans (VS. HOU)

DraftKings: $2,900 (TE21) | FanDuel: $5,000 (TE17)

If you need to punt TE on DraftKings, Okonkwo is the most efficient way to do it. He’s faced with a top-3 on paper matchup and – importantly – has seen impressive usage relative to his salary with Will Levis under center. Okonkwo’s 8.2 XFP/G with Levis at QB makes him the top usage-based TE value of the slate (2.82X).