2025 Pre-NFL Draft Underdog Best Ball Values

For addicts like myself, pre-NFL Draft best ball contests offer a low-commitment fantasy football experience early in the offseason. The format also creates massive value opportunities that won't ever be available again; I've identified the five best for you below.

Chris Godwin

Underdog ADP: 55.8 (WR32)

Godwin’s transition back to a slot-receiving role last season was wildly successful. His 16.1 FPG ranked 2nd-best, and the Buccanneers' concerted effort to retain Godwin signals mutual confidence he’s healthy enough to resume that WR1 campaign. That makes his WR32 ADP outright offensive.

The loss of former OC Liam Coen will be felt, but his replacement coming from within the organization - passing game coordinator Josh Grizzard - suggests Godwin’s role should remain intact. Godwin led all WRs in YPG (22.0) and FPG (4.8) on screens, a level of designed-play efficiency that will not be lost on Grizzard. There is a great chance he features Godwin the same way Coen did, which is not currently priced into his ADP.

Through the first 7 weeks, Godwin led the NFL in receptions (50) while ranking 2nd in receiving yards (576) and TDs (5) as the focal point of the Buccaneers’ high-flying passing attack. Not only was he a front-runner for the overall WR1, but the triple-crown as well. Across the full season, Godwin also ranked top-6 in receiving YPG and top-3 in 1D/RR — metrics strongly correlated with next-season fantasy production.

I have little concern over the "emergence" of Jalen McMillan, who commanded just an 8% TPRR in three full games alongside Evans and Godwin. Even across the full season, while benefitting from his teammates' injuries, McMillan averaged just 35.5 receiving YPG, ranking 9th among rookies and well behind players like Rome Odunze, Keon Coleman, and Ricky Pearsall. In an offense brimming with talent, there is more than enough volume to go around - Baker Mayfield generated the 2nd-most fantasy points for receivers last season.

With the expectation that this Buccaneers offense picks up right where it left off, Godwin will remain one of the most reliable high-upside players in the league. Take advantage of Underdog drafters valuing a top-producing WR miles below his ceiling.

Courtland Sutton

Underdog ADP: 53.5 (WR29)

Underdog drafters selecting Sutton as just the WR29 are failing to recognize how impressive his WR13 finish was last season. Sutton was one of only two WRs with over a 13.0 aDOT to finish within the top-20 fantasy WRs last year, making him one of the best deep-threat assets in best ball.

Early growing pains were expected in an offense led by a rookie QB, but from Week 8 onwards, Sutton recorded 15.2 FPG, 80.4 Rec Yards/G, and 2.65 YPRR. Over a full season, those marks would have ranked 4th-best, 6th-best, & 7th-best respectively, landing him in bonafide WR1 territory.

2024 Weeks 8-18

Sutton had a valuable connection with Nix - 15th-ranked first-read target share (31.%) - and Nix was not afraid to air the ball out - 2nd-most pass attempts greater than 20 yards (71) - leading Sutton to the 3rd-highest air-yard share (44.9%). Sutton is more than deserving of that high-level trust from his QBs; no receiver has more “hero” catches over the last 2 years than Sutton (15). The moniker of a “one-dimensional” catch-point bully has little merit, as Sutton also had the highest EPA on targets vs man coverage in 2024.

Sutton has solidified his role as the centerpiece of the Broncos’ passing attack and was their only WR to run above a 75% route share in any game last year. Injuries earlier in his career have caused some to shy away, but he’s now gone two consecutive seasons without a lower-body injury. It’s no surprise why HC Sean Payton has vocalized his confidence in the current WR room, stating there are higher priorities elsewhere on the team.

A WR29 ADP is borderline insulting when all signs point to another top-15 season, making Sutton one of the best-value picks in best ball.

Alvin Kamara

Underdog ADP: 59.5 (RB19)

Kamara is being heavily discounted due to his age (29) and his 14 missed games since 2021. Kamara still has an average fantasy finish of RB12 over the last 4 seasons, showing he can easily outperform his Underdog ADP of RB19 if he stays relatively healthy.

The addition of Kellen Moore as HC adds a new level of expertise in the run game. Last season, the Eagles had the most rush attempts per game (36.5), and Saquon Barkley led the league in touches per game (23.6) while ranking 3rd in EPA/Rush (0.10). An aging Kamara should have no issues handling this type of workload - he was fed the most volume as measured by backfield expected fantasy points (19.4 XFP/G) last season.

A significant portion of Kamara’s fantasy production comes from his receiving volume - 43.4% of his fantasy points in 2024 & 46.1% in 2023 - and he remains a top-tier receiver out of the backfield. His volume should persist so long as Derek Carr is his QB; Kamara is the most targeted RB over the last two seasons (6.4 targets per game).

There is minimal threat to Kamara’s lead-back role on the current depth chart, and I doubt the team uses significant draft capital on an RB given their other positional needs. Regardless, Moore has already noted his admiration for Kamara and desire to keep him as a feature piece in this offense.

Volume remains king for RBs and Kamara’s unparalleled usage is too mouth-watering to ignore. I expect him to smash his RB19 ADP, with nothing short of a top-12 finish next season.

Rashid Shaheed

Underdog ADP: 101.4 (WR52)

Shaheed was on the cusp of a “3rd-year breakout” before his knee injury in week 7. Before that injury, he averaged 13.2 XFP/G (would have ranked ~WR23 over the full season). Underdog drafters don’t believe in Shaheed meeting those expectations with his WR52 ADP.

Shaheed was far and away Carr’s favorite target, with the 3rd-highest first-read target share (29.8%) & 5th-most receiving yards per game (58.2) among deep threat WRs (13.0+ aDOT). By virtually every metric, Shaheed was the Saints' WR1 when he and Olave played together over the first 7 weeks.

2024 Weeks 1-7

Carr's lofty 14.7% deep pass rate (ranking 4th) and Shaheed’s 5th-highest aDOT (17.7) were a match made in fantasy heaven. Shaheed was able to cash in on that connection - 2nd-highest air-yard share (48.2%) - with 3 TDs of 40+ yards; nobody excels at scoring game-breaking TDs more than Shaheed.

He’s now gone over 16.0 Underdog points in 5 of his last 20 healthy games - that’s more than Chris Godwin, Jaylen Waddle, and Chris Olave have over the past two years.

Deep threat receivers are advantageous in best ball because the impact of spike-week performances is magnified, and this high-upside volatility has been a staple of Shaheed in this Saints’ offense. Shaheed ranks 15th in YPRR (2.11) since entering the league in 2021 and may be approaching the most favorable fantasy situation of his career. WR52 feels like the absolute floor for one of the most explosive players in the league.

Jakobi Meyers

Underdog ADP: 73.3 (WR41)

Meyers has been one of the most reliable and underrated fantasy WRs for the last several years. Despite back-to-back top-25 fantasy finishes, Underdog drafters are still behind the curve, selecting Meyers as just the WR41 overall.

Despite an anemic Raiders’ offense - ranked 29th in scoring (18.2 PPG) - Meyers earned a commendable stat line, highlighted by his 14.9 XFP/G (would have ranked ~WR15 over the full season). Meyers finished 11th in targets per game (8.3), 16th in receiving yards per game (68.5), & 17th in AY Share (34.8%). Meyers has also been highly touted for having some of the best hands in the league and our film charters praise him as the “definition of a possession receiver with terrific spatial awareness.”

These accolades are even more impressive considering the Raiders’ starting QBs collectively ranked 27th in passer rating (82.1), generated the 7th-fewest fantasy points for receivers, and led Meyers to a lowly 68th-ranked catchable target rate (75.2%). The addition of Geno Smith - who generated the 10th-most receiving value in 2024 - should net the entire receiving corps a boost in target quality and fantasy production.

With the off-season additions and upgrade in leadership, the Raiders are trending in the right direction. Meyers should benefit substantially with a great chance to break into the top 20 WRs in 2025, making him an excellent value pick in best ball leagues.