2025 Fantasy Football Bounce-Back Candidates

In the 2024 fantasy football season, the following players all were busts at their ADPs in uniquely disappointing ways.

My goal is to examine each situation to determine whether they have a plausible path to redemption in 2025. My research may lead me to issue a buyer-beware on several of these players.

Marvin Harrison Jr., Wide Receiver, Arizona Cardinals

2024 ADP: WR9; 2024 Finish: WR30

Harrison had a great season by most standards, finishing as only the eighth rookie WR in the last 10 years to record 800+ yards and 8+ TDs. However, a WR30 finish on 11.6 FPG was still massively disappointing, given the context. With high expectations comes heavy scrutiny, and without any serious WR competition on the team, Harrison had mediocre marks, including his 34th-ranked target share (21%) and 37th-ranked YPG (52.1).

Harrison still had opportunities to succeed with many high-leverage downfield targets — ranking 6th in air yards share (43.4%) and 10th in aDOT (14.1) — but this type of usage has inherently high variance. Only two WRs with over a 13.0 aDOT finished within the top-20 fantasy WRs last year (Courtland Sutton and Terry McLaurin). Deep usage comes with lower success rates and lower catchable target rates, which was the case for Harrison, as his 71.9% catchable target rate ranked just 72nd.

Moreover, Harrison saw one of the lowest success rates in the league when targeted on the perimeter. He was much more productive over the middle of the field, but those targets were few and far between.

Harrison and Kyler Murray’s play styles simply do not mesh well together. Per Fantasy Points Data, Murray gets rid of the football in 2.5 seconds or under on 52.5% of his dropbacks, the 5th-highest rate in the league. With his deeper aDOT, Harrison’s routes don’t have time to fully develop before Murray releases the football.

Murray seldom attempts deep passes, ranking 27th at 10.2%. He was largely ineffective on those attempts, with a 24th-ranked completion rating of 35.2% and a 21st-ranked accuracy throw rate of 20.6%. So, we have a quarterback with unfavorable deep passing tendencies and one of the quickest release rates paired with a receiver who has one of the highest aDOTs in the league.

With these trends in place, it did not take long for TE Trey McBride to become Murray’s favorite target. With his shorter aDOT of 6.4 yards, he was heavily utilized over the middle of the field. This led him to dominate all TEs in multiple categories, including having the highest first-read target share by a TE in Fantasy Points Data history at 33.7%.

The hope for Harrison to improve and be utilized more heavily next season falls on the shoulders of HC Jonathan Gannon and OC Drew Petzing. The bar was set low in 2024, with Harrison having zero designed plays. Given he adds little after the catch — ranking 80th in YAC/R (2.5) and 82nd in MTF/R (0.03) — I am not convinced this coaching pair, heading into its third year together, will utilize Harrison any differently in 2025.

Harrison brings more real-life value to the Cardinals’ offense by stretching the field to open up the run game and McBride underneath. For that reason, I don’t have confidence in him breaking into the top 20 next season, and I will target other players around his ADP with a more realistic path to fantasy upside.

Tyreek Hill, Wide Receiver, Miami Dolphins

2024 ADP: WR2; 2024 Finish: WR18

Hill played arguably the best football of his career in 2023, finishing as the WR2 with 23.5 FPG alongside a mind-bending 4.05 YPRR, the best by any WR in the Fantasy Points Data era. He led many statistical receiving categories that correlate well with fantasy production in the following season.

2023

However, a WR18 finish on 12.8 FPG made him one of the biggest “non-injury” busts of last season. I find it hard to believe that Hill hit the age cliff two years early in just his age-30 season — drop-offs in fantasy production this staggering don’t typically occur overnight.

2024

An undisclosed wrist injury in training camp likely had a significant impact on Hill’s level of play. Ligament damage severe enough to require surgery can affect a receiver's ability to make tough or contested catches, secure the ball, or make subtle adjustments when a defender is nearby and in open space. But luckily, wrist injuries don't tend to linger after surgery, which Hill had in February. This leaves him plenty of time to recover before training camp heading into the 2025 season.

Hill’s season-long numbers were also negatively impacted by his QB’s health. In the six games Tua Tagovailoa missed, the Dolphins averaged 12.5 PPG, with Hill averaging a measly 9 FPG in that span. In the 11 games Tagovailoa started, the Dolphins averaged 24.1 PPG, scoring on 48.6% of their drives. This would have ranked among the most efficient offenses in the league, trailing only the Lions (51.6%). And Hill clearly benefitted from Tagovailoa's presence, averaging a much more respectable 15.3 XFP/G with him on the field (~WR13).

When he’s healthy, Tagovailoa is an extremely fantasy-friendly quarterback for his receivers. Over each of the last two seasons, he’s ranked top-10 in passer rating and completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), top-5 in passing YPG, and top-3 in highly accurate throw percentage. In total, he generated the 5th-most fantasy points for his receivers last year.

The Dolphins' horrendous offensive line — ranked 31st in adjusted yards before contact per attempt — greatly limited HC Mike McDaniel's ability to draw up explosive downfield passing plays; the team ranked 30th in passing plays of 20+ yards (34), and dead last in passing plays of 40+ yards (3). That was a far cry from their marks in 2023, when they ranked 8th in passing plays of 20+ yards (59), and 4th in passing plays of 40+ yards (12).

Instead, McDaniel opted to get the ball out of Tagovailoa's hands as fast as possible, resulting in his league-low 2.22-second average time to throw and a bevy of screen targets for De'Von Achane and Jonnu Smith. This new approach was wildly successful, as Smith ranked 5th-best among all receivers by 1D/RR (.139) while seeing double the designed target rate (20.2%) of Hill.^[1] McDaniel's scheme will favor whichever player gives the Dolphins' offense the best chance of success. Without competent O-line play to allow downfield routes to develop, that player was Smith (and Achane) instead of Hill in 2024.

Dolphins players still have confidence in both the coaching staff and ownership, who have vocalized their desire to bolster the offensive line — they’ve already signed guard James Daniels — and should continue to address the unit in the NFL Draft. On the low end, I believe a healthy Hill is 90% of the player he was in 2023. With many likely to sour on his late-second-round ADP, I will instead target him at that “discounted” price tag.

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills

2024 ADP: TE6; 2024 Finish: TE30

Kincaid’s TE11 finish as a rookie in 2023 alongside the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis (vacating 241 targets) propelled his draft stock. Relative to his TE6 ADP, Kincaid’s sophomore season was a massive disappointment. So, what went wrong?

Injuries in Week 6 and Week 10 played a significant role, with the latter causing Kincaid to miss three games. The severity of the wear and tear he experienced last season was likely under-reported, so his hypothetical path to fantasy redemption in 2025 would begin with a full bill of health.

Kincaid was also massively unlucky in terms of target quality. His 69.0% catchable target rate ranked lowest among 35 qualifying TEs, while players around his 8.3 aDOT have historically averaged closer to an 80% catchable target rate. After their AFC Championship loss, Josh Allen outlined his desire to improve the quality of his pass attempts going forward and confirmed the heavy toll injuries had on Kincaid.

Despite lacking connection with Allen and his injuries, Kincaid improved in several fantasy-relevant areas from 2023 to 2024.

His 0.51 XFP/RR and 0.28 TPRR both ranked first in 2024, signaling he is one of the best TEs in the league at commanding target volume on a per-route basis. Per Fantasy Points' expected TD model, Kincaid scored about 2.1 fewer TDs in 2024 than is typical of his volume and target locations, suggesting we can expect some positive regression in the scoring department.

But the most significant barrier to Kincaid seeing an increase in volume is his snap split with Dawson Knox. Despite being measurably better as a receiver, Kincaid’s 57.7% route participation rate ranked just 25th, with Knox cutting in for a 48.3% route share.

So, why did Kincaid run only 13 more routes than Knox in 1-TE sets last season? With the direction the league has been heading, the route share of a TE who cannot block well will be capped. There are very few exceptions to this trend, mainly consisting of TEs who can outplay their team’s slot receiver.^[2] Due to Kincaid’s size in comparison to Knox’s, he can’t play in line as a blocker, meaning we are likely to see this timeshare again next season. His only potential glimmer of hope here comes from HC Sean McDermott vocalizing a desire for Kincaid to bulk up in the offseason. This is nowhere near guaranteed to work, but it may be a positive sign if Kincaid were to show up bigger to training camp.

Although we can expect a turnaround in target quality for Kincaid next season, he has an uphill battle to more volume and higher route participation. Given the success the Bills' offense saw last season, ranking 2nd in PPG and EPA/Play, there is little reason they would need to change their approach. I believe in Kincaid's receiving talent and ability, but his role in this Bills’ run-first offense, which features a spread-out target distribution, caps his fantasy potential. I currently have him ranked as my TE13, with plenty of confidence that he can return his ADP value but less that he can finish inside the top 10.

Breece Hall, Running Back, New York Jets

2024 ADP: RB2; 2024 Finish: RB16

A hot streak at the end of the 2023 season and the expectation of a healthy Aaron Rodgers made Hall a popular preseason pick to finish as the RB1 in 2024. However, the Jets were an unmitigated disaster, and Hall struggled to replicate the success he had experienced the year prior. Hall forced missed tackles at just half the rate he did in 2023 (off a recent ACL tear). MTF/Touch is normally a pretty stable stat from year to year, so Hall’s sudden dropoff suggests he wasn’t playing at full health in 2024.

2023

2024

Despite being far less effective as a rusher, newly added rookie RB Braelon Allen stole away 92 attempts on the ground. This was another blow to Hall, especially given that the Jets ranked last in overall rushing volume (21.4 attempts per game).

Also of note are Hall's dramatic splits on man/gap vs. zone run concepts — he's been significantly more efficient running man/gap for the past two consecutive seasons.

Despite this, the Jets ran zone at the 8th-highest rate in the league in 2024, potentially due to their offensive linemen's inability to win 1-on-1 against defenses in man/gap. But this may not change in 2025, as new HC Aaron Glenn and OC Tanner Engstrand both come from the Detroit Lions coaching staff, where they ran zone concepts at the 5th-highest rate in the league last season.

Hall’s rushing ability and production are only part of the fantasy equation, as most of his value comes from his utilization as a receiver out of the backfield. Hall was the 3rd-most-targeted running back in the league in 2024, and the most-targeted in 2023. In 2024, 50.8% of his fantasy points came from his receiving volume, and in 2023, it was even higher at 54.8%. Adding Justin Fields at QB may bode well for Hall, as Fields has checked down at the league's highest rate over the past two seasons (15.4%).

But Fields comes with two caveats. First, he is not a high-volume passer, with a career average of 25.4 pass attempts per game. Second, teams tend to stack the box at higher rates against Fields-led offenses. Over the last two seasons, Najee Harris (2024) and Khalil Herbert (2023) saw the highest and 6th-highest stacked box rate in the league, respectively. Pairing that with the Jets' lowly offensive line — ranked 22nd in adjusted rushing yards before contact per attempt — means Hall will find even tougher sledding in 2025.

The only realistic hope Hall has of bouncing back next season is contingent on seeing extremely high receiving volume. Given that Fields has historically been a low-volume passer in his career, I don’t see Hall as a consistently high weekly fantasy scorer. With the expectation that Hall has an early 3rd round ADP, I would look to invest in a player in a more well-established offense.