The NFL off-season continues to speed by since the 2025 league year opened in mid-March, which saw several marquee players switch teams — catch up on all of the key skill position movement in our 2025 NFL Free Agency Trackers. I recently broke down the shifting Super Bowl LX odds following the start of the new league year and revealed my initial 2025 NFL Power Rankings for the upcoming season. We’re less than a month away from the NFL Draft but, with most of the major free agency moves out of the way, the 2025 NFL season win totals for all 32 teams were first dropped by ESPN Bet.
The Buffalo Bills are pacing the NFL with a win total at 11.5 (-140 to the over), just ahead of the Baltimore Ravens (+100), Kansas City Chiefs (+110), and Philadelphia Eagles (+110) at the same victory mark. The Cincinnati Bengals (+100) and Los Angeles Chargers (+120) sit at 10.5 wins at the top of the AFC. The Detroit Lions (-130), San Francisco 49ers (+110), and Washington Commanders (+120) are the NFC teams sitting at 10.5 wins. The books have pegged the Cleveland Browns as the league’s worst team at 4.5 wins (-135), followed closely by the New York Giants (-130), Las Vegas Raiders (-145), New Orleans Saints (-150), New York Jets (-160), and Tennessee Titans (-160) at 5.5 victories.
The San Francisco 49ers are expected to have the NFL’s biggest turnaround, as their total sits 4.5 wins higher than their final 2024 record, followed by the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots at 3.5 additional victories from last season. The Minnesota Vikings are facing the biggest potential downturn, with their total sitting 5.5 wins lower than their final 2024 record, followed by the Detroit Lions at 4.5 fewer victories.
Be sure to check out Brolley’s Best Bets: 2025 NFL Futures for my favorite bets all off-season long!
Schedule Notes
Division Matchups
AFC East — AFC North and NFC South
AFC North — AFC East and NFC North
AFC South — AFC West and NFC West
AFC West — AFC South and NFC East
NFC East — NFC North and AFC West
NFC North — NFC East and AFC North
NFC South — NFC West and AFC East
NFC West — NFC South and AFC South
AFC teams have nine home games and eight road games and NFC teams have eight home games and nine road games. Each team has three unique games from the rest of their division and those games are listed below.
2025 NFL Season Win Totals
The odds are courtesy of ESPN Bet as of March 27.
| Team | Win Total (O/U) | Unique Games | 2024 Record |
| Buffalo Bills | 11.5 (-140/U+110) | Phi, KC, @Hou | 13-4 (10-7) |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11.5 (+100/-130) | LAR, Hou, @KC | 12-5 (10-6-1) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.5 (+110/-140) | Det, Bal, @Buf | 15-2 (8-9) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11.5 (+110/-140) | @Buf, @TB, LAR | 14-3 (11-6) |
| Detroit Lions | 10.5 (-130/+100) | @KC, @LAR, TB | 15-2 (12-5) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10.5 (+100/-130) | Ari, Jax, @Den | 9-8 (10-7) |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 (+110/-140) | @Cle, @NYG, Chi | 6-11 (5-12) |
| Washington Commanders | 10.5 (+120/-150) | @Mia, @Atl, Sea | 12-5 (10-6-1) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10.5 (+120/-150) | Min, Pit, @Mia | 11-6 (12-5) |
| Los Angeles Rams | 9.5 (-145/+115) | @Bal, @Phi, Det | 10-7 (9-8) |
| Green Bay Packers | 9.5 (-140/+110) | @Den, @Ari, Car | 11-6 (9-8) |
| Denver Broncos | 9.5 (-105/-125) | GB, Cin, @NYJ | 10-7 (12-5) |
| Houston Texans | 9.5 (+100/-130) | TB, Buf, @Bal | 10-7 (7-8-2) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9.5 (+115/-145) | @Hou, @Det, Phi | 10-7 (10-7) |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 (-150/+120) | @LAC, @Sea, Atl | 14-3 (11-5-1) |
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 (-135/+105) | @LV, @SF, NO | 5-12 (8-7-2) |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8.5 (-130/+100) | @Pit, @Was, Min | 10-7 (6-10-1) |
| Arizona Cardinals | 8.5 (-130/+100) | @Cin, @Dal, GB | 8-9 (11-6) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 (-120/-110) | Sea, Ind, @LAC | 10-7 (11-6) |
| Miami Dolphins | 8.5 (+100/-130) | Was, LAC, @Ind | 8-9 (7-10) |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.5 (+110/-140) | @NYJ, @Car, Ari | 7-10 (7-9-1) |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 (-145/+115) | @Ind, @Min, Was | 8-9 (6-10-1) |
| New England Patriots | 7.5 (-135/+105) | NYG, LV, @Ten | 4-13 (7-9-1) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.5 (-180/+135) | Car, NYJ, @Cin | 4-13 (9-7-1) |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6.5 (-160/+125) | Atl, Mia, @Pit | 8-9 (9-8) |
| Carolina Panthers | 6.5 (-125/-105) | @Jax, @GB, Dal | 5-12 (8-9) |
| New York Jets | 5.5 (-160/+125) | Dal, Den, @Jax | 5-12 (6-11) |
| Tennessee Titans | 5.5 (-160/+125) | NO, NE, @Cle | 3-13 (2-14) |
| New Orleans Saints | 5.5 (-150/+120) | @Ten, @Chi, NYG | 5-12 (7-10) |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5.5 (-145/+115) | Chi, Cle, @NE | 4-13 (9-8) |
| New York Giants | 5.5 (-130/+100) | @NE, @NO, SF | 3-14 (4-11-1) |
| Cleveland Browns | 4.5 (-150/+120) | SF, Ten, @LV | 3-14 (4-13) |
Brolley’s Best Bets
Las Vegas Raiders over 5.5 wins (-110, ESPN Bet)
Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Placed March 26
The Raiders saw six quarterbacks drafted before they were on the clock at 13th overall last spring. The offense struggled to 18.2 PPG (29th overall) and four victories with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell leading the group. New GM John Spytek wasn’t waiting around to address their quarterback issues this off-season, swinging a deal to reunite Geno Smith and Pete Carroll in the desert. Geno immediately raises the floor for this struggling franchise and gives Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers a steadier hand at the trigger. Owners Mark Davis and Tom Brady brought in Carroll and Smith to start turning the franchise around, as the Raiders have just one winning season in the last eight seasons.
Smith produced three straight winning seasons as the starter in Seattle, including twice with Carroll as head coach. He finished with 7 or more victories in each of his 14 seasons in Seattle, and he’s never finished with fewer than 6 victories during his 18-year coaching career. The Raiders should also have better injury luck after finishing behind only the 49ers in games lost to injuries. Las Vegas has to navigate a difficult AFC West, which has the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos all lined at 9.5 wins or better. The Raiders have easier matchups against the Giants, Browns, Patriots, and the AFC South to provide some relief. Las Vegas isn’t quite ready to compete for a playoff spot, but it is being lined as one of the NFL’s worst teams at this win total.
Bets I Considered
Detroit Lions over 10.5 wins (-130, ESPN Bet)
Why I like the over: The Lions have easily cruised over their win totals in each of the last three seasons, besting their marks by at least 2.5 victories in each of those campaigns. Dan Campbell’s crew topped last season’s win total by 4.5 victories, tying the Chiefs with an NFL-best 15 wins. The Lions have finished as a top-five offense in each of the last three seasons, and they return most of their key offensive pieces. Detroit earned the NFC’s top seed despite losing the most games to injury by any defense. That included 12 games lost by Aidan Hutchinson, who was the favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year award before he broke his tibia and fibula.
Why I ultimately passed: The Lions had their offensive and defensive coordinators sniped during the coaching carousel, with Ben Johnson heading to the Bears and Aaron Glenn taking the Jets gig. The 2023 Eagles were the last team to lose their offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching jobs in the same off-season, and Philadelphia ended up firing their replacements after losing six of its final seven games. Detroit has to navigate six games in the NFL’s best division, which has every team lined at 8.5 wins or better. They also get unique games against the Chiefs, Rams, and Buccaneers because of last year’s first-place finish.
San Francisco 49ers over 10.5 wins (+110, ESPN Bet)
- Why I like the over: The 49ers won double-digit games in four of five seasons from 2019-23 before last year’s 6-11 campaign from hell — the 49ers lost the most games to injuries last season. San Francisco’s defense has a chance to be significantly improved with Robert Saleh returning to coordinate the unit. The 49ers have a chance to significantly upgrade their roster when they select 11th overall in April, and they own seven picks inside the first four rounds. The 49ers will also benefit from playing a last-place schedule, which gives them unique games against the Giants, Bears, and Browns. They’re also scheduled for games against the AFC South and NFC South, which puts double-digit wins well within reach with much better luck in 2025.
- Why I ultimately passed: I’m already locked into San Francisco tail outcomes, with Best Bets on the 49ers to win the Super Bowl at +1600 odds and Brock Purdy to win the MVP at +3500. I don’t want to be too heavily into the 49ers since I believe they could have a wider range of outcomes than most teams depending on how their rookie class pans out. CBS Sports’ Doug Clawson wrote that other teams spent $321 million on 49ers free agents through the first four days of free agency. Meanwhile, San Francisco spent only $37 million on free agents to create the largest free agency spending deficit in NFL history at $284 million. The 49ers will need a couple of their seven picks in the first four rounds to be key contributors right out of the gates.
Chicago Bears under 8.5 wins (+105, ESPN Bet)
- Why I like the under: Chicago came nowhere close to its 8.5-win total last season, finishing with five victories in Caleb Williams’ first season. Chicago even missed the third-fewest games to injuries last season, ahead of only the Eagles and Ravens. The Bears haven't cleared their win total in six straight seasons and they’ve topped eight victories just once in the last 12 years. They own a 1-10-1 win total record since 2013, but bookmakers have once again set their win total at 8.5 victories. It takes a small leap of faith to trust Williams to show significant improvement after he absorbed league highs in sacks (68) and sack yards (466). The Bears have to navigate six games in the NFL’s toughest division. The Lions, Vikings, and Packers combined for a 40-11 record (.784 winning percentage) and three playoff berths last season.
- Why I ultimately passed: Chicago’s front office went all-in this off-season to give Williams his best chance at success entering his second season. They landed the most-coveted head coaching candidate by stealing Ben Johnson from the Lions. Ryan Poles landed Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson to completely revamp the interior of their offensive line. The Bears benefit from a last-place schedule, which gives them unique matchups against the Saints and Raiders. Based on win totals, they also have matchups against two of the league’s worst teams, the Browns and Giants.
Pittsburgh Steelers over 8.5 wins (-120, ESPN Bet)
- Why I like the over: All Mike Tomlin does is post winning seasons, which is required to finish above an 8.5-win total. He’s never posted a losing season in 18 years while reaching 9+ victories in 15 of those campaigns. Tomlin’s teams have finished over their win total 13 times, including in each of the last five seasons despite significant quarterback issues. Pittsburgh made a rare splashy move in the off-season by trading for D.K. Metcalf, who will give whoever is at quarterback one of the NFL’s most intimidating perimeter WR duos.
- Why I ultimately passed: Pittsburgh’s win total is baking in that Aaron Rodgers will sign with the franchise at some point this off-season, but I wouldn’t put it past him to retire. The Steelers would be stuck with Mason Rudolph and potentially a rookie at quarterback if Rodgers descends permanently into the darkness. Pittsburgh has a pair of difficult matchups against the division-rival Ravens and Bengals, as well as matchups against the NFC North, which has four teams lined at 8.5 wins or better.
Miami Dolphins under 8.5 wins (-130, ESPN Bet)
- Why I like the under: The Dolphins fell below expectations last season with just eight victories, and they could be a team on the brink of blowing up if they take another step back early this season. Tyreek Hill failed to reach 1000 receiving yards in his first season in his 30s, and he demanded a trade after the season, which he walked back some in the last few months. Tua Tagovailoa has concussion concerns for the rest of his career, which are exacerbated behind one of the NFL’s worst O-lines. Mike McDaniel tried to cover up those issues with the NFL’s quickest time to throw at 2.27 seconds and the shortest aDOT of 6.4 yards. The Dolphins drew matchups against the AFC North and a pair of tougher unique games against the Chargers and Commanders, who are each lined at 10.5 wins.
- Why I ultimately passed: The Dolphins ripped off 9+ wins in four straight seasons, including in Mike McDaniel’s first two seasons, before falling a win short of 9 victories last year. They could get back into the AFC postseason race with better health after several key players on both sides of the ball missed significant time. McDaniels’ offenses ranked inside the top six in yards in his first two seasons, and they have more than enough firepower to get back on track in 2025. Miami’s schedule isn’t too daunting with matchups against the NFC South, a unique game against the Colts, and a pair of contests against the Jets and Patriots.
Carolina Panthers over 6.5 wins (-125, ESPN Bet)
- Why I like the over: Bryce Young and the Panthers got off to a rough start in Dave Canales’ first season as head coach, opening the year with a 1-7 record through eight weeks. They ended the season with four victories over their final nine games, and it could’ve been even better if not for three one-score losses to playoff teams in the Eagles, Buccaneers, and Chiefs. The offense is trending in the right direction under Young and Canales, and they added Tre’von Moehrig and Tershawn Wharton to a defense that’s ranked bottom four in yards allowed the last three seasons. They also locked up Jaycee Horn to a long-term extension, and they figure to aggressively attack their defense through the draft. The Panthers should have better injury luck after losing the third-most games to injuries last season. They have six matchups against the NFC South, and they drew games against the Jets and Patriots as part of their matchups against the AFC East.
- Why I ultimately passed: Carolina has finished under its win total in six of its last seven seasons. I’d like to see a larger body of improved play from Young before I jump in with both feet with the Panthers. Carolina still figures to have one of the league’s worst defenses even with Derrick Brown returning from a season-ending injury. They drew a unique game against the Packers and four matchups against the NFC West, which has all four teams lined at 8.5 wins or better.
