Scott Barrett's 2025 Rookie WR Dynasty Rankings

In this article, I will rank the top 2025 rookie wide receivers for your dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts.

I will approach this year’s article only slightly differently from past seasons. Rather than rank these prospects entirely by their analytics profile, I am now more heavily weighing both projected draft capital (courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database) and Brett Whitefield’s film score as key variables. However, the bulk of the analysis below will remain very analytics-driven.

For a deeper dive into a player’s film-based evaluation, please consult the (totally free to read) Fantasy Points Prospect Guide.

Tier 1 [Round 1-Caliber]

Unranked — Travis Hunter, WR, Colorado

Height: 6’0.5”, Weight: 188 lbs, Age: 21.9

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): DNQ

Proj. Draft Capital: top-5 overall pick

In 2024, Travis Hunter did the unthinkable. He won the Heisman Trophy, the Biletnikoff Award (best WR in the nation), and the Bednarik Award (best defensive player in the nation). That’s an unprecedented trifecta — essentially, he was not only the best player in college football, but he was basically the best and 2nd-best players in college football. If not, it was probably just the greatest season by any player in CFB history.

Hunter led all Power Conference WRs in receptions (96) and receiving touchdowns (15) while ranking third in receiving yards (1,258). On defense, he was just as dominant, allowing only 222 yards (0.52 yards per route run allowed) and just one touchdown while recording four interceptions. In total, he played 1,552 snaps last year, or 119.4 per game.

Hunter’s counting stats are undeniably impressive — especially given that, last year, only 5.4% of his routes came from the slot, meaning he faced tougher coverage. But there’s a caveat: he benefited from Colorado’s hyper-fast-paced, pass-heavy offense. On a per-route basis, his numbers look merely "OK" rather than generationally elite — he averaged just 2.51 yards per route run (YPRR), tied with Emeka Egbuka but behind 14 other Power Conference WRs and two TEs (Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland) from this year’s class.

This has led to a common refrain on social media: “Hunter’s numbers as a WR aren’t actually elite.” I’d disagree. And, I think, with more context, so would you.

Hunter had the lowest expected YPRR of any WR in this year’s class and one of the lowest of any WR since 2019, running over twice as many routes from four- and five-wide receiver sets than three-wide receiver sets.^[1] By career personnel-adjusted YPRR, Hunter (+91%) easily clears all other proj. Round 1-2 WR in this year’s class, and is much closer to a Malik Nabers (+105%) or Marvin Harrison Jr. (+104%) than a Tet McMillan (+69%) or Luther Burden (+77%).

Hunter was also further disadvantaged by screens, of which he wasn’t a very large part of at Colorado, although this was a major part of their offense. Only two FBS teams threw more screens than Colorado’s 112 last season, yet Hunter accounted for just 21.4% of those targets. The few he did get were tough to watch on tape: he'd catch a touchdown, stay on the field for a 12-play series on defense, then immediately be asked to take a screen. So, it did make sense for Deion Sanders to give him a bit more of a breather by taking this off of his plate, and focus on the tougher routes. Unsurprisingly, on plays that actually require a WR to create separation and beat coverage, Hunter fared much better.

Hunter also appears more dominant by yards per team pass attempt (YPTPA) than YPRR, posting an 88th percentile age-adjusted YPTPA in 2024 — the fifth-best individual season from any Power Conference WR in this year’s class. And by the same logic, this figure too could be adjusted upwards.

Another dank stat working in Hunter’s favor? Hunter, alongside a stacked list of names, has the 14th-best career passer rating when targeted (137.8) of any drafted WR since 2019. Another stat working against him? He was a total non-factor in terms of yards after the catch, which we rarely see improve at the next level. That’s not ideal, but his YAC was good enough on all short-area work. And then, downfield, that’s not how he wins — that’s where he uses his elite ball skills.

So, is he the best WR in this year’s class? How high should you draft him? I’ll just come right out and say it — I have no idea how to value this generationally unique prospect. I’m very open to the idea that he’s the best WR prospect in this class — Lance Zierlein, based on film study, has him as both the highest-graded WR and CB in this year’s class. But I also don’t think an analytics model can appropriately capture his ceiling and upside.

Hunter was insanely productive as a WR — so much so that if we spotted Hunter an additional six receiving yards in 2024, he’d have more receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns than Marvin Harrison Jr. had in any collegiate season. And he did all this while spending the bulk of his practice time at an entirely different position and logging an additional 59.7 snaps per game on defense. Who knows what his numbers would look like if he focused on WR full-time, without splitting his attention and depleting his energy reserves on defense? Simply put, maybe we haven’t come close to seeing him reach his true (fantasy) potential.

Things get trickier from a fantasy perspective. Even if Hunter is the best WR in the class, he still might not even be worthy of a Round 1 rookie pick in fantasy. Because, well… we have no precedent for how this plays out.

Hunter’s Bull Case

A team — let’s say the Browns — views Hunter as a WR first and foremost. They commit to developing him exclusively at the WR position (close to zero defensive snaps, though special teams work is fine), meaning he’s no longer splitting reps, focus, and practice time between offense and defense. He can add some bulk to his 6’1” 188-pound frame, no longer having to engineer for cardio. And then, with no more split reps, divided focus, or extra fatigue, Hunter refines his craft, maximizes his potential, and emerges as a top-5 WR in the NFL.

Hunter’s Most Likely Scenario

The NFL team drafting Hunter views him as both an elite WR prospect and an elite CB prospect. But because it’s much harder to be a full-time receiver who works in on packages as a CB than the reverse of that, the team drafting Hunter will likely view him as a CB first and foremost.

If that’s the case, it’s hard to imagine him getting more than a dozen snaps per game on offense (only in key pre-defined packages). In this scenario, I think the best we could hope for is around a 25% route share… Of course, there is a world where a team drafts Hunter to (primarily) play CB, and he’s just too good — too much better than the team’s other WRs — to keep him off the field. So, perhaps that route share winds up being higher than 25%.

But even so, we’ve never (within the Fantasy Points Data era) seen a WR finish top-45 at the position while running a route on fewer than two-thirds of a team’s dropbacks. The closest thing to an outlier would be 2024 Marvin Mims, who averaged 7.6 FPG on 10.6 routes run per game (28% route share), but 7.6 FPG isn’t helping your fantasy team win any games. In fantasy football — a game driven by power-law players — it seems impossible for Hunter to become an impact player if he’s not a full-time WR.

Still, the most likely scenario is not always as important as the less likely but more impactful scenario. Sure, it’s hard to imagine Hunter as an impact player for fantasy if he’s only a part-time WR, but his power law-upside feels massive should he commit to WR full-time.

And then, there really is a world where Hunter is just the NFL’s Shohei Ohtani. I think it’s more likely than the NFL Mock Draft Industrial Complex is suggesting — when you have someone who has already done the impossible, you can’t put any limits on his upside or potential. Remember, the game of football (and fantasy football especially) is one ruled by freaks and outliers — players like Tom Brady, Alvin Kamara, Tyreek Hill, and Rob Gronkowski in their prime, players who no one saw coming, who ultimately helped redefine the game and the positions they play. Pre-hindsight, most would have said it would be impossible for them to do what they did.

TLDR / Conclusion

Ultimately, there's just too much we don't know right now. So, I will wait until the NFL Draft (when we learn his draft capital, his team, and what that team plans to do with him) before making any firm declarations about his fantasy value. If a team invests top-10 draft capital and commits to him as a full-time WR, he looks like a future league-winner in dynasty leagues.

But if Hunter is drafted primarily as a cornerback with only situational offensive usage, it seems nearly impossible for him to ever become fantasy-relevant. Or maybe he is just “built different” to the extreme and can be a two-way 110-snap-per-game player in the pros. But right now, all we have is raw talent and uncertainty. The draft will tell us how the NFL actually views him, and that will dictate how we should value him in fantasy football.

1. Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona

Height: 6’4”, Weight: 219 lbs, Age: 22.1

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 64.6 Pro Day SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: top-15 overall pick (WR1)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 1 (WR1)

McMillan entered college as a consensus 5-star recruit and made an immediate impact at Arizona. As a 19-year-old true freshman, he led the team in receiving touchdowns (8) while finishing with 702 receiving yards — the most of any FBS freshman that year.

He leveled up significantly in the following season, recording a 90-1,396-10 line through 13 games. That’s the third-most receiving yards of any Power Conference WR over the last three seasons, trailing only 2023 Malik Nabers and 2023 Rome Odunze.

In 2024, McMillan posted an 84-1,319-8 line through 12 games. While his per-game production only slightly improved from the year prior (107.8 to 109.9), the broader context makes this performance more impressive. Arizona’s next-closest receiver had only 323 receiving yards. McMillan finished with more than four times that number(!), walking away with a 44.3% yardage market share — the 6th-best mark of any Power Conference WR this past decade. He was the only player defenses needed to account for and stop, defenses were selling out to stop him, and they still couldn’t stop him — QB Noah Fifita averaged 10.12 YPA when targeting McMillan, but just 5.83 YPA when targeting all other receivers.

He’s the first Power Conference WR to clear 1,200 receiving yards in back-to-back seasons since A.J. Brown. He joins CeeDee Lamb (1,098), Ja’Marr Chase (1,047), Jordan Addison (1,047), and Malik Nabers (1,005) as the only WRs since 2019 to average more than 1,000 yards per season throughout their careers and leads the group with 1,138. He also owns two of the three best YPTPA seasons of any Power Conference WR in this year’s class, eclipsing 3.00 YPTPA in both years.^[2]

McMillan’s numbers look even more impressive within the broader context of his usage. He ran only 23% of his career routes from the slot but led the class in career YPRR from the slot (3.24).^[3] He has a Power Conference-high 1,079 receiving yards against single coverage over the last two seasons, more than twice that of Emeka Egbuka, Luther Burden, or Matthew Golden. And less than 4% of his career yards have come on screens.

The only concern with McMillan, and it feels very nitpicky, is that he was much better against man rather than zone coverage throughout his career, which doesn’t align with the current NFL meta — NFL defenses have increased their rate of zone coverage in three of the last four seasons, deploying it on 70.8% of their plays in 2024.

Physically, McMillan and Drake London look like clones of each other, but the comparison works on multiple levels beyond that. Like London, McMillan is shockingly elusive for his size. Excluding screen targets, he forced 25 missed tackles in 2024, the 3rd-most by any Power Conference WR in PFF College history (since 2014). Despite excelling in contested catch situations, this doesn’t mean he struggles to separate — he recorded 18 contested catches in 2024 (14th-most this past decade), but only 23% of his targets were contested. And the hope for McMillan is that his future NFL team will utilize him much like how London was deployed in 2024 (37% of his routes and 47% of his targets coming from the slot), taking better advantage of his slot prowess than Arizona did.

TLDR / Conclusion

The London comparison mostly fits, although London was a slightly better prospect as he was younger with significantly tougher target competition. That said, McMillan still stands head and shoulders above every other WR in this class. His strongest green flag might be that he possesses zero damning red flags, unlike every other WR we’ve yet to discuss. So, let’s not overthink this — McMillan is the easy WR1 in this year’s class, multiple tiers ahead of anyone else (besides, potentially, Travis Hunter), and is worthy of consideration as the best non-Jeanty dynasty asset in this year’s class.

Tightly Clustered Tier 2 [Round 2]

2. Luther Burden III, WR, Missouri

Height: 6’0”, Weight: 206 lbs, Age: 21.4

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 92.5 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 2 (WR4)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 3 (WR9)

Coming out of high school, Burden was the consensus No. 1-ranked WR in his class and the No. 4-rated player overall. He turned down offers from more prestigious programs to stay local, joining the Missouri Tigers.

Burden made an immediate impact as an 18-year-old true freshman, leading Missouri in all-purpose touchdowns (5 receiving, 2 rushing, 1 punt return).

The following year, he exploded for an 86-1,212-9 receiving line in 13 games, gaining 1.77X as many receiving yards as the next-closest Missouri WR (Theo Wease). This resulted in a 3.21 YPTPA, the best season of any Power Conference WR in this year’s class. This looks even better if factoring in his age (age 19), yielding a 97th-percentile age-adjusted YPTPA — the 2nd-best mark of any WR over the past three years, behind only Malik Nabers’ 2023 (98th percentile). This also appears more impressive if factoring in his tough strength of schedule (86th percentile) — especially relative to a Tetairoa McMillan (59th percentile in 2024, 64th percentile in 2023) — and for a team otherwise devoid of NFL-level talent on offense.^[4]

Burden is primarily a slot WR (60% career slot rate) but also a YAC god and a missed-tackle-forced machine. In 2024, he forced a missed tackle on nearly half of his receptions (0.49) — the highest mark of any Power Conference receiver in PFF College history (min. 60 receptions). In 2023, he averaged 8.4 yards after the catch per reception (94th percentile). Burden also rushed 34 times for 234 yards (6.88) and 4 touchdowns throughout his career, which my model liked to see — rushing production is weirdly predictive for WR prospects.

The NFL Mock Draft Cognoscenti tells us that Burden is an easy top-5 WR in this class, deserving of a top-35 pick overall. If that’s correct, and we assume the NFL is better at talent evaluation than some fantasy nerd, it’s hard not to get excited. Top-35 draft capital is great, and especially great for a WR of Burden’s fantasy-friendly archetype — he oozes with PPR cheat code upside alongside, potentially, a guaranteed every-week floor of about 1.5 screen targets per game.

That being said, I’m not sure Burden is as good at football as his projected draft capital currently implies.

An extremely high percentage of Burden’s 2023 came on screens and deep slot targets.

We can’t entirely write off production coming on screens and deep slot targets, but I typically discount this sort of production to a high degree. In both instances, the WR is not being asked to beat a cornerback with their route running, athleticism, or physicality — the real determining factor for future NFL success.

Screens are “manufactured touches” or “gimme/layup throws” with a 91% expected completion rate. It’s nice to know a player has the sort of athleticism or after-the-catch abilities to be featured in this role, which Burden certainly has. But it’s agnostic to what will truly matter at the next level.

Slot production is only slightly devalued in my model, but deep slot production is heavily discounted. Slot fades are not indicative of a WR's skill or talent, but rather highlight an at least borderline level of competency from the offensive play-caller, who — even if they don't know a lot — at least knows enough to exploit one of the most obvious and potent efficiency hacks at the college level. Even if it were true that Burden was an elite “slot fade artist” in college, we don’t know how well that will translate from college to the pros, where you lose the wide hashes, and slot fades become significantly less common. That’s the key point here. But some other minor points involve the disparity in talent between slot and outside cornerbacks at the college level, the avoidance of press coverage, the popularity of two-high and quarters coverage at the NCAA-level, etc.

One could argue that “just because he wasn’t asked to run ‘real’ routes doesn’t mean he can’t.” But, minus screens, 26.1% of Luther Burden’s targets in this season came as contested targets. This ranked 4th-most of any Round 1-3 slot WR (>40% of routes coming from the slot) over the past decade, on a top-6 list that includes only Treylon Burks, Malachi Corley, Luke McCaffrey, and Ja’Lynn Polk. This raises further concerns over his ability to separate and win on “real” routes.

In short: Burden’s 2023 production was great but potentially fraudulent.

But if 2023 was misleading, then 2024 was just downright bad. He averaged just 56.3 YPG (2.32 YPRR), less than teammate and proj. Round 7 WR Theo Wease’s 68.0 (2.65 YPRR). Burden recorded only one 100-yard game this season. And all year, he had only 10 catches gaining 20-plus yards, which ranked 126th among all FBS receivers, and 32nd among all FBS WRs invited to this year’s Combine.

Ultimately, it’s hard to avoid the dreaded “gadget” label with Burden. 32.3% of his career targets have come behind the line of scrimmage — the 4th-most of any Round 1-2 WR this past decade, behind only Kadarius Toney (36.0%), Wan’Dale Robinson (34.8%), and Rondale Moore (33.1%). It’s tough to pin this on poor QB play, given that Brady Cook is considered a draftable NFL prospect, expected to go in Round 6. Maybe Burden can be more than just a gadget WR, even if that’s how he got most of his production. But his poor contested target rate doesn’t inspire much confidence. If anything, it justifies the coaching staff’s decision to keep him in a “screen merchant” role.

Brett Whitefield compared Burden to Wan’Dale Robinson based on film study, and the production profile supports that, both at a college and NFL level.^[5] Robinson’s 2021 season was actually better than Burden’s 2023 season, posting a 97th percentile age-adjusted YPTPA. But Burden was incomparably more dynamic with the ball in his hands^[6]. He is also a vastly superior athlete to the slower, miniature-sized Robinson, giving him a much higher ceiling if things click at the next level.

A note from our resident SPORQ dork, Ryan Heath: “Burden is an elite athlete, recording a 92.5 SPORQ Score. If we’re saying his closest list of comparisons consists of players like Percy Harvin (92.4), D.J. Moore (85.1), and Deebo Samuel (71.1) at the high-end of the spectrum, and Treylon Burks (55.8), Wan’Dale Robinson (35.5), and Amari Rodgers (21.1) at the low-end, it’s important to note that Burden is — athletically — much closer to the former group than the latter. Maybe Burden can actually win with raw athleticism in the NFL, even if he is a below average route-runner and separator, much like Deebo Samuel.” The counter-argument to this, from Rich Hribar when discussing Burden, “Trying to find the next Percy Harvin has led to Rondale Moore.”

TLDR / Conclusion

In a best-case scenario, Luther Burden is D.J. Moore or Deebo Samuel. In a worst case, he falls somewhere on a spectrum that includes names like Wan’Dale Robinson, Malachi Corley, and ArDarius Stewart. There’s a world where he becomes a high-volume PPR cheat code and another where he’s just a gadgety slot WR whose production doesn’t quite translate. Still, that upside helps set him apart from some of the other WRs in this class. Emeka Egbuka, for example, feels like a much safer bet — he’s less likely to be a true burden to your fantasy team — but Burden offers significantly more upside, and that’s what really moves the needle in fantasy. Even so, it feels pretty gross for me to see Burden ranked as my WR2. More than anything, there’s just a steep drop-off from McMillan to anyone else, and then a tightly clustered tier with little separating Burden from even Jayden Higgins (my WR6). So, although Burden is technically my WR2, he’s unlikely to be a player that ends up on (m)any of my dynasty teams. Luckily, this year’s RB class is elite, and then, TEs Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland might be the real WR2 and WR3 from this year’s class.

3. Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State

Height: 6’1”, Weight: 202 lbs, Age: 22.6

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 66.6 Pro Day SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 1 (WR3)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 2 (WR8)

As a high school junior, Egbuka posted an 83-1,607-25 receiving line, while adding four rushing touchdowns, three punt return touchdowns, and two pick-six touchdowns on defense (8 total interceptions). He was unanimously rated the No. 1 WR recruit in the 2021 class.

As an 18-year-old true freshman, Egbuka didn’t contribute much to the Buckeyes beyond special teams, competing for playing time alongside Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, and Marvin Harrison Jr.

The following season, with Olave and Wilson in the pros and an injury limiting JSN to only three games, Egbuka broke out significantly. He recorded a 74-1,151-10 line through 13 games. Although 2nd-best on the team (112 yards behind MHJ), this was good for the 5th-most receiving yards in the Power 5, and the 3rd-most in Ohio State history at the time. His 3.01 YPRR average ranks as the 5th-best single-season of any Power Conference WR in this year’s class.^[7]

Egbuka fell off of a cliff in 2023, recording nearly half as many receiving YPG as Marvin Harrison Jr. (100.9 vs. 51.5). Egbuka suffered an ankle injury against Maryland (Week 6), requiring tightrope surgery. He missed three games, and was somewhat eased back into playing time upon his return. If we were to be as generous as possible, removing his least-productive games — the game in which he suffered this injury and then his first two games back with less — his YPG climbs to 61.9, and his YPRR jumps from 1.95 to 2.15. So, even with injury adjustments, it was a pretty disappointing year.

Ebguka’s numbers were only slightly better in Ohio State’s national championship-winning 2024 campaign. He recorded an 81-1,011-10 line, but through 16 games, that amounted to just 63.2 YPG. 18-year-old true freshman Jeremiah Smith had 300 additional yards on only 14 additional routes, but we won’t hold it against him that Smith would be the 1st overall pick if he were draft-eligible this year, and that WR3 Carnell Tate (48.9 YPG) is currently the consensus WR1 and a projected top-5 overall pick in the 2026 Draft. So, this isn’t anything like Luther Burden getting out-produced by Theo Wease last season.

On one hand, Egbuka ranks top-3 in the class in both career YPRR (2.61) and career 1D/RR (0.126), well ahead of Tetairoa McMillan (2.37, 0.106). He did this despite the toughest target competition in the class. On the other hand, he profiles as a slot-only WR^[8] who never led his team in receiving yards and was only a little above average after the catch. He’s also a non-early declare with only one truly impressive season.

Analytically speaking, Egbuka reminded me a little bit of Jarvis Landry and Amon-Ra St. Brown — slot WRs who each impressed by age-adjusted YPTPA^[9] despite elite target competition. But digging deeper, I found an interesting wart Egbuka carries that hints at suspect upside and would put him alongside a much less sexy list of cohorts.^[10] In short, Egbuka offers essentially no vertical element to his game, averaging just 10.1 career YPG on deep targets. This would easily be the lowest figure from any Round 1 WR in at least a decade. And if we included WRs selected in Round 2, he’d rank behind only Curtis Samuel (who had more career carries than receptions in college) and Parris Campbell.

TLDR / Conclusion

Brett Whitefield mostly nailed it during our Film vs. Analytics episode on Egbuka (paraphrased): “Egbuka is one of the most NFL-ready WRs in this class. He has a really high floor but a questionable ceiling — it's almost like his ceiling is touching his floor. For a comparison, I think he’s exactly Jakobi Meyers. Would you spend a mid-Round 1 rookie pick on Meyers if he were six years younger?” I’m not really a big fan of Egbuka for similar reasons. You should know by now that I place a high premium on upside. But admittedly, upside is harder to gauge pre-Draft.

Egbuka will be massively landing spot-dependent, as with all slot-only WRs. But if he lands in a favorable spot, and if Egbuka’s projected draft capital sticks, my model is going to like him a lot more than all this implies. (For instance, if he goes to Denver and we hear Sean Payton invoke the name “Michael Thomas” or explicitly say “he’ll be our Joker,” he might be one of my favorite players in this year’s class.) But right now, in a vacuum, he’s yet another WR I’m not all that excited to draft, despite him technically ranking as my WR3.

If you haven’t picked up on it, this isn’t a very good WR class. Minus McMillan, I think there’s a good chance I’ll leave most of my rookie drafts without a single WR added to my team.

4. Matthew Golden, WR, Texas

Height: 5’11”, Weight: 191 lbs, Age: 21.8

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 99.0 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 1 (WR2)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 2 (WR6)

As a 19-year-old true freshman at Houston, Golden finished 2nd on the team in receiving YPG (53.1) behind Tank Dell’s 107.5. The following season, he dropped to 3rd on the team in receiving YPG (44.9) behind two players you’ve never heard of (Sam Brown and Joseph Manjack IV).^[11]

Golden then transferred to Texas, recording a 58-987-9 line through 16 games. This amounted to just 61.7 receiving YPG, good enough for the team-high, but a pretty atrocious mark for a projected Round 1 WR’s career-high.

Golden supporters can point to his supposedly tough target competition — WR Isaiah Bond and TE Gunnar Helm are projected Day 2 picks — alongside sub-mediocre QB play. But that’s where things get tricky for me. On one hand, Quinn Ewers is a projected Round 2 pick. On the other, Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell (the ASS god) look a bit better at the professional level than their collegiate-level analytics profile implied at the time. And, keep in mind, Ewers was significantly worse last year than he was in 2023 — dealing with a torn oblique, healthy for maybe only two or three games — finishing 37th of 47-qualifying Power Conference QBs in PFF Pass Grade.^[12]] My model also doesn’t like Bond and Helm anywhere near as much as their projected draft capital implies, but, again, this too could be heavily influenced by poor QB-play.

If we wanted to be as favorable as possible, I suppose it is impressive that Golden immediately stepped in as Texas’s No. 1 receiver — on a top-5 team, no less — while adjusting to a brand new playbook. He also improved as the season progressed and the schedule toughened, averaging 95.0 YPG (36.2% YMS) with a 3.18 YPRR over his final six games. For perspective, a 3.18 YPRR over a full season would have led all Power Conference WRs with at least 200 routes run. But here’s the flip side: that’s all we have. Golden isn’t even a one-year wonder; he’s a six-game wonder. And even then, these numbers are heavily inflated, as Isaiah Bond was hurt for the entirety of this stretch, recording just four catches across these six games.

Perhaps the most damning stat on Golden is that he averages just 1.85 YPRR, failing to clear the all-important 2.00 threshold.

Career YPRR is among the most predictive metrics we have. When evaluating college prospects, we typically use 2.00 career YPRR as a very low threshold a player needs to clear to get into the Day 1-2 conversation.

That’s because the track record of all Day 1-2 prospects who failed to clear that mark is atrocious. In reality, we’ve only ever seen three players fail to clear that mark and not become a total bust at the NFL level – Terry McLaurin (91.5 SPORQ), D.K. Metcalf (99.9), and Brian Thomas Jr. (93.3). Notably, all three — along with Golden (99.0) — are elite athletes. Metcalf and BTJ were also early-declares, like Golden, and both had elite target competition, which may or may not be the case here. Even so, we’re still talking about a 97-99.95% implied bust rate overall. Golden also never came close to 2.00 career YPRR, unlike Metcalf and BTJ^[13], and Golden’s career-best 2.10 YPRR (in 2024) pales in comparison to Metcalf (2.83), BTJ (2.61), and McLaurin (2.19).

Not only is Golden’s production subpar relative to a typical Day 1-2 prospect (implying significant bust risk for the NFL team drafting him in Round 1), but he’s also of an archetype that is typically much less valuable for fantasy than from a real-world NFL perspective. His 0.188 career TPRR ranks 43rd of 48 Combine-invite WRs from this year's class and in the 9th percentile among all Round 1-2 WRs this past decade. Actually catching those targets is another issue. Golden is frequently cited as having “great hands,” but he averaged one drop every 14.4 career targets, which ranks bottom-10 in this year’s class. We can contrast this figure to that of Jayden Higgins or Jack Bech, who both average one drop every 50.0 career targets. And then, in terms of generating yards after the catch (once the ball is actually caught), Golden averages just 4.25 yards after the catch per minus screens throughout his career, which ranks just 34th-best of 43 qualifying WRs in this year’s class (20th percentile historically).

Sure, he’s freakishly fast. But so are all of the greatest Day 1-2 busts of the past two decades.

Besides his athleticism, the one stat working in Golden’s favor is that a class-high 58.4% of his career targets resulted in a first down or touchdown. This is a weirdly predictive statistic — more predictive than first downs per route run (1D/RR) from a college-to-pros standpoint, although 1D/RR is one of the most predictive metrics we have for WRs once they’re already in the NFL. Another horrifying stat working against him? He averaged less than 1.00 YPRR against man coverage in each of his last two seasons, ranking 45th of 46 qualifying WRs in this year’s class over the last two years (0.83).

TLDR / Conclusion

If you couldn’t tell, my model and I mostly detest Golden — he doesn’t have anything close to a Round 1-caliber analytics profile. Maybe Quinn Ewers really is one of the most disappointing QBs in recent memory — and maybe that’s unfairly dragging him down — but even then, I’m not convinced Golden is a better prospect than Isaiah Bond. Ultimately, Golden’s ranking is entirely propped up by projected draft capital — he’s the only WR outside of McMillan who appears to be a lock to get selected in Round 1. Even if this is giving me major Henry Ruggs vibes, draft capital is too crucially important and impactful to a player’s NFL success — even above and beyond its predictive value — to rank him any lower. Plus, no one after him blew me away. There’s a tight, murky tier after McMillan that feels like a three- or even five-way tie.

5. Elic Ayomanor, WR, Stanford

Height: 6’2”, Weight: 206 lbs, Age: 21.9

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 86.7 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 2 (WR5)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 2 (WR2)

Ayomanor moved from Canada to the United States in high school to pursue football more seriously. A record-breaking track and field standout^[14], he was lightly recruited out of high school — partly because he played just one full year of football in the United States and only two games as an upperclassman, having his 2020 season cancelled due to COVID and then suffering a season-ending injury in his second game of the 2021 season. That same injury led him to take a medical redshirt year as a freshman at Stanford in 2022.

Despite the delayed start, Ayomanor broke out immediately at age 20 in 2023, posting a 62-1,013-6 line through 12 games — becoming just the second Stanford WR to hit 1,000 yards since 2000. He had 2.5X as many receiving yards and 3.0X as many touchdowns as the next-closest Stanford receiver. His 941 yards when lined up out-wide ranked 4th-best among Power Conference WRs, on a top-6 list that included only Rome Odunze, Troy Franklin, Brian Thomas Jr., Tetairoa McMillan, and Marvin Harrison Jr.

If these numbers don’t immediately jump off of the page, they should, with more context.

On a Stanford team otherwise devoid of NFL talent, Ayomanor faced a 91st-percentile strength of schedule^[15] — significantly tougher than, for example, Tetairoa McMillan (64th percentile) — while dealing with far worse QB play than any other comparably productive receiver in the Power Five. Among 62 qualifying QBs by PFF Pass Grade, Shedeur Sanders (Travis Hunter), Jaxson Dart (Tre Harris), Noah Fifita (Tetairoa McMillan)^[16], Brady Cook (Luther Burden), and Kyle McCord (Emeka Egbuka) ranked 8th, 9th, 15th, 18th, and 25th, respectively. Stanford’s Ashton Daniels ranked 56th — 7th-worst.

For those skeptical of PFF grades: just 42.9% of Ayomanor’s career targets coming 15 or more yards downfield have been deemed catchable per PFF charting — the lowest rate among all Combine-invite WRs in this class, and the 2nd-lowest of any WR drafted since at least 2022.^[17] All of this, and let’s not forget his extreme inexperience for the position, having logged just one full game of football across the three years leading up to this breakout.

The following season — still at Stanford with the same awful QB, but now adjusting to a brand-new offense, a new coach, and a move to a new conference — Ayomanor’s production declined slightly, finishing with a 63-831-6 line through 12 games. His 36.2% YMS remained elite (97th percentile), perfectly mirroring his 36.2% in 2023. That puts him in rare company — one of only two Power Conference WRs this past decade to post a YMS of at least 36% across multiple seasons — and is exactly what you'd hope to see or would need to see when you’re stuck on a bad team with bad QB play^[18] and your raw counting stats aren’t quite as impressive as some of your peers. However, this time, the added context makes him look a little worse.

4-star freshman Emmett Mosley V made his first appearance in Week 5 and immediately became a key part of the offense. From then on, Mosley led the team in catches and touchdowns, while Ayomanor only narrowly edged him out in yardage (597 to 525) despite running 28 more routes. That’s not ideal, but there are two ways to look at this. Maybe Mosley is a future star^[19], and we shouldn’t penalize Ayomanor too severely, like we wouldn’t have penalized Justin Jefferson for getting out-shined by Ja’Marr Chase in his final season. Or perhaps Mosley’s production speaks to Ayomanor drawing extra defensive attention as the clear focal point of the offense, as it is notable that his YMS actually improved within this sample (37.0%).

A key negative working against him is his lack of YAC – his 4.5 career YAC/R ranks in the 11th percentile among all Round 1-2 WRs drafted this past decade. Remember, this is something we rarely see improve at the next level, although Chris Olave (3rd percentile) is one key exception. And Olave (88th percentile 40-yard dash), like Ayomanor (79th percentile Speed Score) are among the best athletes from within this group.

Ayomanor is a tricky prospect, and far from a sure thing. But the more you dig into his profile, the more there is to like.

As alluded to earlier, his QB wasn’t doing him any favors. Neither, it appears, was his offensive play-caller. Just 10% of his career targets have come from the slot, less than any other projected Round 1-3 WR in this year’s class. He saw only 4 screen targets in his entire career, representing just 1.9% of his career targets, both marks ranking the lowest of any WR in this year’s class. And within that context, his YAC doesn’t seem so bad — remember, it’s much easier to wrack up YAC on screens — or at least pushes him (4.30) above projected Day 1-2 WRs Matthew Golden (4.25) and Isaiah Bond (4.14) by career YAC/R minus screens.

TLDR / Conclusion

Ayomanor’s production profile doesn’t immediately jump off the page, but the more I dug in, the more I liked. And the more I studied the rest of the class, the more I appreciated Ayomanor. He’s still a tricky evaluation, with some legitimate concerns but also intriguing contextual factors that make his production look far more impressive than they appeared at first glance. While not a stellar or flawless prospect, I found little fault with Brett Whitefield’s lofty ranking for him (WR2 based on film).

Ayomanor’s combination of high-end market share, production in a difficult offensive environment, and flashes of dominance (e.g. his performance against Travis Hunter) makes him a prospect I feel comfortable betting on. He’s not a can’t-miss prospect, but in a weaker class, he’s one of the better WR options available, especially at cost.

6. Jayden Higgins, WR, Iowa State

Height: 6’4”, Weight: 214 lbs, Age: 22.4

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 89.3 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 2 (WR6)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 2 (WR5)

Tier 3 [Round 3]

7. Jaylin Noel, WR, Iowa State

Height: 5’10.5”, Weight: 194 lbs, Age: 22.7

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 95.7 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 3 (WR10)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 2 (WR3)

Production models often struggle to properly value two high-end, yet-to-be-drafted WRs on the same team. That’s exactly why I was too low on Justin Jefferson coming out. I recognized that both he and Ja’Marr Chase looked great — with Chase clearly ahead — but not that they were both freakishly elite. The core challenge is that we’re comparing two unknowns, and market share metrics — a key component of my model — are inherently relative. Without draft capital to help clarify the matter, it’s difficult to know how much a player’s production should be adjusted for the presence of a similarly unproven teammate.

This becomes even more difficult when both receivers nearly mirror each other in production.

First off, just take a second to marvel at this. No other Iowa State WR had over 141 yards last year.^[20] Together, Higgins and Noel combined for an absurd 62% YMS. Emeka Egbuka never cleared even half that mark in any of his four seasons at Ohio State.

Again, this is murky territory. The first step is determining which of these two WRs had the more impressive analytical resume. And although they were nearly identical by raw counting metrics, this feels easy.

We have to give Higgins the clear edge for several reasons.

Higgins was more efficient (as evidenced by the superior YPRR) despite being tasked with the tougher assignment, running 71% from his routes from out-wide over the last two seasons (versus Noel’s 28%). Within this context, Higgins stands out. Over the last two seasons, he was dramatically more efficient than Noel both when lined up out-wide (2.73 vs. 2.05)^[21] and from the slot (3.00 vs. 2.83).^[22]

Adding more fuel to the fire, Higgins is younger, although by only 101 days.^[23] There are also a few potential red flags I’m seeing from Noel that aren’t there for Higgins. Noel forced only 7 missed tackles over the last two seasons^[24], a suspiciously low figure for a slot WR with 126 catches over this sample. Noel’s 0.03 MTF/R (minus screens) ranks worst of any RB, WR, or TE invited to this this year’s combine.^[25]

So Higgins looks better. But the more challenging question is: “How do Higgins and Noel stack up against the rest of the class?”

Surprisingly well.

Despite my initial concerns, my model liked both players. Over the past two seasons, Higgins and Noel ranked 2nd and 7th, respectively, among all Power Five WRs in total receiving yards — despite competing with each other for targets and being disadvantaged by subpar quarterback play^[26]. Of 55 qualifying QBs, Iowa State’s Rocco Becht ranked 44th in PFF Pass Grade last year.

Earlier in this article, I compared Tetairoa McMillan favorably to Drake London. But it appears Higgins belongs in that same tier — his profile fits almost perfectly alongside both.

As for Noel, I was especially encouraged by his versatility. He excelled (>2.50 YPRR) as an underneath slot option in 2023 (7.7 aDOT), before adding more of a vertical element to his game (12.2), with no drop-off in efficiency. That suggests he may be more than just a slot-only receiver at the next level — or at least that there’s a bit of Tyler Lockett to his game.

At this point, you might be wondering if I’m too low on both WRs. But the primary concern is essentially the inverse of what we saw with Travis Hunter. Both ran an inordinately high percentage of their routes with only two WRs on the field (30-31% over the last two seasons) — exponentially higher than Travis Hunter (only six such routes throughout his entire career) — resulting in near class-highs for expected YPRR and a deflated personnel-adjusted YPRR. So, I feel pretty good about where I have them ranked.

While my production model slightly favored Higgins, Noel wasn’t far behind. Both tested as high-end athletes (95.7 athleticism score for Noel, 89.3 for Higgins) and graded well according to Brett Whitefield’s film study (WR3 for Noel, WR5 for Higgins), although Noel was slightly higher in both categories. Still, I’d place Higgins a tier ahead, even if they sit side by side in the rankings.

TLDR / Conclusion

Despite potential model bias and concerns around expected YPRR, both Higgins and Noel graded out exceptionally well. Their profiles stack up favorably — and often more cleanly — than several higher-ranked WRs in this class. Unlike some of those names, I actually like them at cost and wouldn’t mind drafting them.

8. Isaiah Bond, WR, Texans

Height: 5’10.5”, Weight: 180 lbs, Age: 21.1

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 86.5 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 3 (WR9)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 2 (WR7)

With Bond, we’ll find all the same concerns as with his college teammate, Matthew Golden. Except he just looks significantly worse by every measure. He’s not as fast as Golden (4.39 vs. 4.30)^[27], despite being 11 pounds lighter. Neither cleared our 2.00 career YPRR threshold, but Bond’s 1.73 was a little worse than Golden’s 1.85. Perhaps most damning of all, Bond has cleared 100 YFS just once across his 41-game career.

Of course, we’ll have the same excuses as well — i.e. that Quinn Ewers is stinky — but we have a new one this time as well, and it makes Golden look comparatively worse and Bond quite a bit better.

*takes a deep breath*

Last season, Bond suffered an ankle injury against Oklahoma, missing more than half of that game. He tried to play through it the following week against Georgia, but was minimally effective, and sat out the following game against Vanderbilt. His snaps were limited in the regular season finale against Texas A&M (51% snap share).

The next week, against Georgia, Bond aggravated that injury (he got rolled up on by Texas’ RB when he was blocking downfield), leaving the game with a 54% route share. He missed the team’s next game against Clemson, and was limited across Texas’ final two games of the year (31% snap share).

If we exclude all of these games (including the games he missed), then Bond looked quite a bit more like Texas’ WR1 than Golden.

*exhales*

And Bond’s track record heading into 2024 was also significantly better than Golden’s. Bond’s age-19 2023 season at Alabama was actually quite impressive, recording an 80th percentile age-adjusted YPTPA. He wasn’t as productive as his teammate Jermaine Burton, but Burton was a Round 3 NFL Draft pick (despite massive character concerns) and is 2.7 years older. Meanwhile, with a softer strength of schedule and lesser target competition, Golden never cleared a 38th-percentile age-adjusted YPTPA at Houston before his modest career-high 62nd percentile last year.

If we’re being generous, we can attribute Bond’s underwhelming production to injury, poor QB play^[28], and strong target competition. But that’s all we have — excuses. If you’re drafting Bond, you’re betting on him being an outlier, and there’s not much in the data to support that bet.

That said, all of this applies equally to Golden — who, despite failing to outproduce a healthy Bond, is projected to go nearly 50 picks earlier. That doesn’t make much sense when Bond’s profile is, in many way,s superior. The only plausible explanations (analytically) are Golden’s (possibly inflated) 40-time boosting his stock, and off-field concerns dragging Bond’s down.

TLDR / Conclusion

Bond and Golden feel like the same prospect to me. I’m not even sure Golden is better, although he’ll go much earlier in rookie drafts. Once again, I kind of hate this WR class. And even if I wouldn’t call myself a massive Bond fan, he does appear to be a pretty great arbitrage play on Golden, especially if you buy into the thesis that Quinn Ewers is Christian Hackenberg 2.0.

9. Tre Harris, WR, Ole Miss

Height: 6’2.5”, Weight: 205 lbs, Age: 23.2

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 62.0 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 2 (WR7)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 3 (WR11)

Upon transferring to Ole Miss in 2023, Harris was immediately great, leading the team in receiving — 54-985-8 through 12 games — while running 85% of his routes from out-wide. Among all Power Conference WRs, he ranked 2nd-best in both YPRR and 1D/RR when lined up out wide. The only WRs (min. 200 perimeter routes) joining him in the top-3 of either metric were Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Troy Franklin.

Harris was great in 2023. In 2024, he was historically great, posting one of the (analytically) best seasons in college football history.

Harris averaged 5.15 YPRR, the highest mark by any FBS WR in PFF College history. On perimeter routes — which accounted for 88% of his total routes — he averaged 5.13 YPRR. For perspective, the next-closest Power Conference WR since 2018 is DeVonta Smith in his Heisman-winning 2020 season, and he wasn’t even in the same stratosphere, recording just 3.68 YPRR.

Harris also averaged 128.8 receiving YPG, which ranks 4th-best since 2018. And if we exclude the one game he left early due to injury, he jumps to 3rd-best (141.0), exceeding 80 receiving yards in 7 of 7 full games.

We could stop here and bask in these stats' sheer dankness. It’s hard to imagine Harris not being one of “My Guys” in this year’s draft — the numbers are just too ridiculous, right? Right?!

Well… you may have noticed Harris is only my No. 9-ranked WR in this year's class. The only way that could happen for a player with stats like these is if the red flags are both extremely damning and seemingly endless. And yeah — they are.

• A) Harris is already 23 years old, and once we account for the inherent competitive advantage that comes with age, his production looks far less impressive. His best season, at least according to my model (which ignores anything beyond a player’s age-21 season), came in 2023, when he posted an 85th percentile age-adjusted YPTPA — a mark seven other Power Conference WRs in this class have surpassed. This concern doesn’t have much to do with a dynasty owner getting fewer usable seasons from an asset — it’s about how age skews his production, and how the track record for older WR prospects is historically awful. Over the past decade, 15 WRs who were at least 23 years old on draft day were selected in Rounds 1-2. Only two have ever made a Pro Bowl.

• B) Harris put up huge numbers at Ole Miss, but that came after three underwhelming seasons at G5 Louisiana Tech. He didn’t “break out” as the Bulldogs’ No. 1 receiver until his third year, and even then, his production was far from dominant when adjusting for the level of competition. For perspective, in 2022 — Harris’ best statistical season before joining Ole Miss — Tez Johnson, another Group of 5 receiver, ranked 2nd in YPRR (3.52), while Harris ranked 27th (3.21).^[29]

• C) If Harris’ record-breaking 2024 season isn’t ignored or discounted due to his advanced age, small sample bias is another concern. He missed 5 games and ran exactly 200 routes in 2024, perfectly hitting my typical minimum 200 route cutoff. My model might have ignored it if he ran one fewer route. Further, he benefited from a much softer strength of schedule over this span, compiling over 50% of his yards against the only non-Power Conference schools he faced — G5 Georgia Southern (225 yards), FCS Furman (179 yards), and G5 Middle Tennessee State (130). Against Power Conference schools, Harris’ YPG falls from a historically great 128.8 to just 99.2.

• D) After being way too damn high on Elijah Moore^[30] (I’m sure we all remember), I worry that my model might have a blind spot for Lane Kiffin WRs^[31] — or at least for the impact Kiffin’s play-calling has in making receivers look better than they are. Kiffin’s aggressive, pass-heavy, motion-laden, play-action-spamming, modified veer-and-shoot offense is not just great for counting stats, but is inherently designed to scheme WRs open rather than forcing them to win 1-on-1 against CBs consistently.^[32] Even Nick Saban has acknowledged this, saying: "[Kiffin] likes to throw the ball… he comes up with really good schemes to get players open."^[33] And so, it’s worth noting… Ole Miss didn’t skip a beat without Harris. Across the five games he missed, the offense saw only a 3% drop-off in passing yards per game (355.1 vs. 343.4). More damning than that, Jordan Watkins — a projected UDFA (current consensus WR67) — stepped seamlessly into Harris’ role, averaging 120.0 receiving YPG over that stretch. Consider that Watkins faced exclusively Power Conference schools over this 5-game sample, and now remember that Harris averaged just 99.2 YPG against Power Conference schools. That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for Harris being an irreplaceable talent.

• E) Perhaps most damning of all, an alarmingly high number of Harris’ targets have come as contested targets. As we’ve discussed in previous iterations of this article, this is highly predictive and indicative of a player who might struggle to separate in the pros. My working theory is this: If you're overly reliant on contested catches (even if you’re an exceptional contested catch artist), you’re probably not getting open a lot. And if you’re not consistently getting open in college, you will struggle to separate in the NFL. It's honestly surprising Harris was as productive as he was with this red flag — or that it even existed at all, with Jaxson Dart as his QB^[34] and Lane Kiffin scheming him open. But here we are.

TLDR / Conclusion:

The favorable stats on Harris are undeniably dank, but the red flags are real, significant, and hard to ignore. So, at the very least, that means Harris fits the mold of a high-risk, high-reward prospect — the prospect you know I tend to gravitate toward. It's important not to get too caught up in the negatives and overlook the positives, especially in fantasy football where “upside is nearly all that matters.” And at the very least — unlike some of the other WRs in this class (Matthew Golden, Isaiah Bond) — Harris actually produced.

Tier 4 [Day 3]

10. Jack Bech, WR, TCU

Height: 6’1.5”, Weight: 214 lbs, Age: 22.4

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): DNQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 2 (WR8)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 2 (WR4)

Bech is both a one-year wonder and a late breakout, a brutal archetype regarding historical hit rate.

And even his one productive season — his age-21 2024 campaign — wasn’t exactly wonderful.

His 1,034 receiving yards were the fourth-most in TCU history, behind only Josh Doctson (2015), Quentin Johnston (2022), and Jalen Reagor (2018).^[35] The raw counting stats look nice, but they came against lesser competition, especially for Power Conference standards (48th percentile strength of schedule, 3rd-softest of any Power Conference team). And his QB play was fairly strong, with QB Josh Hoover ranking 12th-best of 66-qualifying Power Conference QBs in PFF Pass Grade.

Efficiency-wise, this resulted in just a 72nd percentile age-adjusted YPTPA, which lags behind the age-21 seasons of some other one-year wonder and/or late-breakout WRs from this year’s class:

• Pat Bryant (91st percentile)

• Xavier Restrepo (86th percentile)

• Ja’Corey Brooks (82nd percentile)

• Tai Felton (80th percentile)

Keep in mind that Bryant (2.12), Restrepo (2.45), and Brooks (2.04) all cleared our critical 2.00 career YPRR threshold, but Bech did not (1.86).

One potential excuse? My model views his target competition as the toughest from this group, playing alongside projected Round 3 WR pick Savion Williams. But I’m not sure that holds up under closer scrutiny. Williams is largely a bet on upside and raw athleticism, and even his biggest fans will tell you he’s far from a finished product. Further, Bech averaged 35.3 routes per game to Williams’ 24.3 — a significant gap, largely because Williams spent 33% of his snaps playing QB/RB over his final six games. During that latter stretch, Bech ranked just 3rd on the team in YPG (55.3), trailing Eric McAllister (58.8) and J.P. Richardson (58.0), and 4th in YPRR (1.71) also behind Williams. And McAllister — who isn’t even one of the top-100 projected WRs in next year’s draft — still finished with a better YPRR (2.89) than Bech (2.44) across the full season.

Keep in mind, this was easily Bech’s best season.

And we could stop right here and totally write off Bech. Outside of the first five weeks of the 2024 season, he has zero 100-yard games in 40 career appearances (30.6 YPG). By receiving YPG, he was LSU’s 8th-most productive receiver as a sophomore (16.7) and then TCU’s 9th-most productive receiver as a junior (18.3). Successful NFL players simply do not have disappearing acts such as this on their college résumés.

But things are rarely that simple — especially for a player projected to go top-75. Of course, it’s never a good sign when you’re forced to make so many excuses for a player — and that tends to matter more than the excuses you will make — but in Bech’s case, there are a few worth considering.

Bech's freshman season was… extremely interesting. Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Bech were all 18-year-old freshmen playing for the LSU Fighting Tigers in 2021. But it was Bech who led the group in receiving yards (489)^[36], while also leading the entire team (which also included Kayshon Boutte and Trey Palmer) in receptions (43). It wasn’t an all-time great freshman season by any stretch (52nd percentile age-adjusted YPTPA) but it was easily the best age-18 season of any WR in this year’s class, even before factoring in Bech’s elite target competition.

But what was most interesting about this season was that Bech played a brand new position. He played WR all throughout high school^[37] but was recruited to LSU as a TE. He was officially listed as a TE his freshman season, spent all of his practice time in the TE room, and played 30% of his snaps inline with 63% coming from the slot. Again, for emphasis, he led the team (a stacked team) in receptions this year, despite being an 18-year-old true freshman playing a brand new position.

Bech disappeared as a sophomore at LSU, dropping to 7th among the team’s WRs in YPG (16.7). But he also moved back to WR full-time in this season, under new HC Brian Kelly, and suffered a stress fracture (which further led to shin splints) in the preseason. Kelly insisted by late September that Bech was finally healthy and needed to be more involved in the offense, and although he never was, it feels easy to make excuses for a player who was hampered by injury all throughout his first preseason with a new position group while also fighting for playing time alongside more-seasoned and future NFL talent in Malik Nabers, Kayshon Boutte, and Brian Thomas Jr.^[38]

In the following season, with TCU, Bech missed four games due to an undisclosed injury. Even so, he didn’t start in any of the eight games he played, and he never reached a 50% route share in any of those games. There’s not much public information relating to Bech’s injuries beyond what I’ve already referenced.

Still, in April, heading into his breakout 2024 season, Bech said: “I feel great, finally the way my body should feel. [It’s the best] I felt since probably the end of my freshman year. I got hurt going into my sophomore year and was trying to bounce back last year.” Perhaps it is true that we can write off Bech’s disappointing sophomore and junior seasons due to injury, but we would have to assess this likely excuse to get even mildly excited about Bech as a prospect.

After running just 8.7% of his career routes from the perimeter heading into this season, Bech saw that spike to 71.4% in 2024. One could argue this was his third new position in four years, shifting from inexperienced TE to oft-injured slot WR to a healthy X WR.^[39]

Ultimately, none of these excuses feel compelling, and there isn’t much to get excited about unless we bend the rules. So, Bech remains a fairly tough sell from an analytics perspective, with Brett Whitefield’s film score^[40] and projected draft capital^[41] doing much of the heavy lifting within his final ranking.

TLDR / Conclusion

Projected draft capital tells us Bech is a potential Round 2 pick. Brett Whitefield tells us this is the 4th-best WR in this year’s class. The analytics profile is pretty terrible — historically awful for a Day 1-2 WR — but he’s a fine WR10 in a bad class, even if only because of how highly I value Brett Whitefield’s opinion.

11. Tez Johnson, WR, Oregon

Height: 5’10”, Weight: 154 lbs, Age: 22.9

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 20.8 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 3 (WR14)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 5 (WR22)

Before joining Oregon, Johnson spent three years with the Troy Trojans, in the Group of Five. In his final and best season there (2022), Johnson ranked 2nd-best of all 276-qualifying Group of Five WRs in YPRR (3.52).

But Johnson first popped up on my radar in 2023 — his first year at Oregon — when he compiled an 86-1,182-10 line through 14 games. He averaged 3.45 YPRR, ranking 2nd-best in the Power 5, between Malik Nabers (3.64) and Marvin Harrison Jr (3.44).

I knew that Johnson was Bo Nix’s adopted little brother and they played together in high school. Naturally, I wondered how much their pre-existing chemistry contributed to Johnson’s elite 2023 season — and, more importantly, how he would fare without Nix in 2024. Ultimately, Johnson slipped to 2.60 YPRR, ranking just 17th-best among all Power Conference WRs or 12th-best among all Power Conference WRs from this year’s class. Still, he ranked 3rd-best in 1D/RR (0.147), and finished just one yard shy of the Power Conference-high in yards after the catch (604) — after leading all WRs in the year previous (727).

There are several other stats that would make Johnson look like one of the best prospects in the class, but it feels like a poor use of our time when his analytics profile is riddled with so many glaring concerns.

• A) Johnson has one of the most fraudulent production profiles I’ve ever seen — gimmicky to the extreme — with his negatives almost looking like a caricature of our nitpicks with Egbuka. Over the last two seasons, only 9.5% of Johnson’s yards came from out-wide, and a whopping 27.1% of his targets came on screens. His career aDOT is a pathetically low 7.1.

• B) Johnson bested teammate Troy Franklin by YPRR in 2023, but not by much (3.45 vs. 3.32), and Franklin was more productive in fewer games played. Both ranked inside the top-5 at the position among all Power Conference WRs, alongside Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Luther Burden. Despite technically ranking behind Johnson, Franklin’s 2023 season was significantly more impressive to me, after factoring in age (Franklin is 8 months younger) and usage (80.3% of Franklin’s routes came when lined up out-wide). But here’s the issue: Franklin fell to Round 4 in the Draft and was wholly unimpressive as an NFL rookie.^[42] This makes me question whether Oregon WR production is artificially inflated, similar to the concerns we raised about Tre Harris and Lane Kiffin’s system. There may be something inherent to Oregon’s offense or scheme that boosts WR production, making these players look better on paper than they actually are.

• C) Johnson’s YPRR was elite in 2023, but he looked far less impressive by YPTPA (just 24th-best among all Power Conference WRs). And although he sports the best career TPRR in this year’s class, I don’t think he offers true PPR cheat code potential in the pros. Given Johnson’s poor athleticism, I’d be shocked if he gets Day 2 draft capital. But even if he does, given his low playing weight, I’m skeptical he’ll ever be more than just a part-time player at the professional level. (Remember, we discussed in the Travis Hunter section how damaging this is for a player’s fantasy prospects). Why should we expect him to be a full-time player at the pros (up against much bigger DBs) when he wasn’t a full-time player in college? In 2022, at Troy, he ran a route on just 61.1% of the team’s dropbacks in games active. The following season, at Oregon, he earned a route share of just 63.3%, well below Franklin’s 89.3%. This may have something to do with Johnson’s very significant size concerns, which we’ll get to soon.

• D) But the most damning concern is Johnson’s low playing weight. At 154 pounds, he’s a total outlier, basically a strong wind gust away from an injury designation. Among all Combine-invited WRs since at least 2000, only two WRs have weighed less than 165 pounds and recorded a catch in the NFL: J.J. Nelson (156 pounds) and Tutu Atwell (155 pounds). To be fair, Xavier Worthy and Tank Dell both weighed in at exactly 165 pounds (11 pounds heavier than Johnson), but Dell is two inches shorter (superior BMI), and Johnson is nowhere near as fast as Worthy. And, well, that’s the other part of this. It’s not only that Johnson is built like he’s been stranded on a remote island for a decade. It’s also that he’s an extremely subpar athlete (20.8 SPORQ Score). It’s easy to overlook Worthy’s low playing weight when he holds the Combine record in the 40-yard dash. Johnson, meanwhile… Of the 1,100 WRs to run the 40-yard-dash at the Combine since 2000, Johnson’s Speed Score ranks 8th-worst (0.01st percentile).

TLDR / Conclusion

Oh look! We’re forced to bet on another outlier again. How fun! Listen, if I’m telling you Tez Johnson is the WR11 in this year’s class, I’m really telling you there are only 10 WRs in this class with an analytics profile worthy of a Round 1-3 pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

12. Jalen Royals, WR, Utah State

Height: 6’0”, Weight: 205 lbs, Age: 22.2

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 90.1 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 3 (WR11)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 3 (WR10)

As a freshman in 2021, Royals recorded a 7-92-2 line through 11 games at Georgia Military. He transferred to Utah State in 2022, recording zero catches on 23 routes run. In 2023, Royals led all Group of Five receivers in receiving touchdowns (15), but his 71-1,080-15 line wasn’t considerably better than that of WR2 Terrell Vaughn (89-933-11) in an equal amount of games (13). Vaughn went undrafted that year and never joined an NFL team.

Royals went off in 2024, recording a 55-834-6 line through 7 games, before suffering a season-ending foot injury. His 119.1 YPG is the 13th-most by any Group of Five WR this past decade.^[43] In games active, Royals recorded a 2.91 YPTPA (would be 75th-best this past decade) and a 39.5% YMS (45th-best).

We can just cut to the chase here: My model has a serious bias against older small-school WRs, and so do I. The hit rate on Group of 5 WRs is atrocious^[44], and Royals’ analytics profile doesn’t appear significantly better than that of fellow Group of Five wideout Ricky White^[45] and Tory Horton.

Royals is predominantly an outside WR (13% career slot rate), but also very much a screen merchant, as 16.8% of his career yards have come on screens, on par with Tez Johnson (17.0%) and Luther Burden (16.8%). He is a high-level athlete (90.1 SPORQ)^[46], which is more than enough to push him above White (22.4) and Horton (75.6), but is never enough on its own.^[47]

TLDR / Conclusion

I hate this year’s WR class.

YOLO Tier

Favorite Deep Sleeper: Elijhah Badger, WR, Florida

Height: 6’1.5”, Weight: 200 lbs, Age: 23.7

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 67.0 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: UDFA (WR37)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 4 (WR14)

Badger redshirted as a freshman in 2020 due to academic ineligibility and a COVID-shortened season that limited Arizona State to just four games. He did little the following year, buried behind NFL-caliber talent — Ricky Pearsall (Round 1), Rachaad White (Round 3), Johnny Wilson (Round 6), and Jalin Conyers (projected Round 6) — on a Jayden Daniels-led offense that somehow managed just 194.7 passing yards per game.

With Daniels and all but Conyers gone, Badger broke out in the following season as a 21-year-old. He compiled a 70-866-7 line through 12 games, gaining nearly 1.75X as many receiving yards as the next-closest Sun Devil receiver (28.6% YMS). His 2.149 YPTPA ties Jaylin Noel’s age 21 season, and would rank in the 74th percentile if age-adjusted.

Badger’s numbers slightly diminished in the following year (2023), as Arizona State’s schedule toughened up (90th percentile), and he missed some time at the end of the season due to a back injury. He saw more slot usage in this season, running 33% of his routes from the slot (a career-high), and averaging 3.36 YPRR on those routes. Interestingly, that ranked tied with Luther Burden in his supposedly elite 2023 season, behind only Malik Nabers (4.35) and Tetairoa McMillan (3.73) among Power Conference WRs with at least 100 slot routes. Most notably, Badger became the first Power Conference WR in the PFF College era to record 25-plus missed tackles forced in multiple seasons (25 in 2022, 26 in 2023).

Badger then transferred to Florida and was used in an entirely different way. Formerly a missed tackles forced-machine working in the shorter area of the field, Badger was utilized primarily as a deep threat for the Gators, with his aDOT jumping from 8.8 to 17.3. Despite the transition, and despite joining a brand-new team with a new playbook and missing a large chunk of training camp with a back injury, Badger thrived in this new role, leading the team with 67.2 YPG. More impressively, he averaged 2.96 YPRR, leading all Power Conference WRs from this year’s class (min. 200 routes).

You know I don’t typically like fifth-year WRs, especially those who have never reached 900 receiving yards in a single season. But there’s enough here to view Badger as one of the more intriguing sleepers in this class. For instance, he holds the PFF College-era record in career missed tackles forced per reception, just above Luther Burden. And this is partly why I’ve been viewing him as a significantly cheaper or poorer man’s version of Burden.

He also compares favorably to Ricky Pearsall if you want to go helmet scouting. Although, unlike Pearsall, at least Badger cleared our all-important 2.00 career YPRR threshold (2.25)^[48], hitting at least 2.00 YPRR in each of his final three seasons.

TLDR / Conclusion

In addition to all this, Badger is decently athletic (67.1 SPORQ) and Brett Whitefield liked his film (WR14) significantly more than any other talent evaluator in the industry. But he’s still a very longshot to one day reach fantasy relevancy, let alone hear his name called in April. So, he’s just another name to monitor, more than anything else for now.