Scott Barrett's Analytics Darlings: 2025 TEs

As I started my 2025 dynasty fantasy football rookie prospect evaluations, I was immediately blown away by the sheer number of record-breaking TEs in the NFL Draft class. I was so excited I couldn’t help but put this year’s TE article out a little early.

Of course, publishing this article before the Combine is largely a fool’s errand because athleticism is so massively important at the TE position.^[1] But this does, at the very least, give us a few rooting interests leading into the Combine.

So, for now, here are the five TE prospects in this year’s class, according to my pre-Combine prospect model.

Scott Barrett’s Analytics Darlings: 2025 Rookie Tight Ends

1. Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State

Height: 6’6”, Weight: 260 lbs, Age: 22.9

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 1 (TE1)

Warren played quarterback all four years in high school, initially committing to Virginia Tech as a three-star QB recruit before decommitting and signing with Penn State as a TE.

Due to his lack of experience playing the position, Warren was understandably slow to see the field and slow to break out. It certainly didn’t help that he was sharing the field with 4-star recruits TE Brenton Strange (Round 2 NFL Draft pick) and TE Theo Johnson (Round 4).

Warren “broke out” in 2023, finishing as the team’s No. 2 receiver in yardage. He tied Johnson in receptions (34) and touchdowns (7) but eclipsed him in YPG (32.5 vs. 26.2) and YPRR (1.41 vs. 1.26). These were solid competition-adjusted marks but nothing earth-shattering.

That all changed in 2024.

Warren’s 2024 season is arguably the greatest TE season in CFB history. In 16 games, Warren posted a 104-1,233-8 line as a receiver while adding 26-218-4 as a runner. His 1,451 yards from scrimmage is the most by any TE in Power Conference history and is +400 more than the next-closest mark this past decade (Brock Bowers in 2022).

Among all Power Conference TEs in PFF College history (2014-present), Warren’s 2024 season ranks 1st in… targets (135), receptions (104, most by +30), receiving yards (1,230, only TE over 975), first downs (67), receiving yards after the catch (693), and first downs per route run (0.151). Only Brock Bowers’ 2021 season ranks higher by YPRR (3.01 vs. 2.77). And Warren’s 2.82 YPTPA easily leads all Power Conference TEs over the past 15 years, with no one else over 2.40.^[2]

These numbers are surreal for any pass-catcher, let alone a TE. Among TEs with this level of competition, only Brock Bowers came close by YPRR and 1D/RR. Among all WRs from last year’s class, only Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. had seasons eclipsing both marks. And that’s just as a receiver! Warren’s 26-218-4 line as a runner is also remarkable. Among all players with at least 1,100 receiving yards in a single season, that ranks as the 4th-most rushing yards, on a top-5 list with Tavon Austin, Jeremy Maclin, Sammy Watkins, and Brandin Cooks. Of those, only Austin averaged more YPC than Warren’s 8.4.

Warren isn’t “the best TE prospect ever” because Brock Bowers exists; because Bowers was almost this impressive in all three of his college seasons, at a much younger age and against much tougher target competition. But Warren might come closer than any TE in recent memory.

Final Ruling / TLDR

Warren is a blue-chip TE prospect. If he tests as expected and his projected draft capital holds, I’d value only Brock Bowers and Trey McBride ahead of him in dynasty. At most, there are only three rookie WRs from this class I’d take ahead of him. In TE Premium leagues, there might only be one (Tet McMillan).

2. Harold Fannin, TE, Bowling Green

Height: 6’3”, Weight: 238 lbs, Age: 20.8

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 2 (TE3)

Fannin was a two-way star in high school, earning first-team All-Ohio honors as a senior, with 106 tackles, 6 forced fumbles, and 2 touchdowns on defense (safety), while adding 36 catches for 601 yards and 6 touchdowns on offense (wide receiver). Fannin was under-recruited (partly due to academic issues) before committing to Bowling Green as a TE.

Fannin appeared in 11 games as an 18-year-old true freshman, compiling a 19-218-1 line in a part-time role. Despite his youth and relative inexperience playing the TE position, Fannin would break out in 2023, recording a 44-623-6 line in 10 games. His 56.6 YPG easily led the team (by +38%) and ranked top-3 at the position nationally.

Mind you, this was despite a multi-week injury severely deflating this number.^[3] This becomes more apparent based on his 2.62 YPRR (98th percentile), which ranked behind only Brock Bowers (2.65). Fannin was just as impressive on a per-catch or per-target basis, averaging 9.2 YAC/R (98th percentile), 0.30 MTF/R (93rd percentile), and 10.8 YPT (93rd percentile).

This was all paving the way towards greatness.

Fannin’s 2024 season is arguably the greatest TE season in CFB history. (I know we just said this about Tyler Warren’s 2024 season. Bear with me…) In 13 games, Fannin turned 150 targets into 117 catches, 1,555 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Fannin’s 1,555 receiving yards isn’t only the most by any TE in FBS history, but it’s +203 more than any other TE all-time. His 117 receptions were also an all-time TE record. Perhaps better yet, he led the nation in both stats (all FBS players at all positions), becoming the first FBS TE to lead the nation in either stat.^[4]

His 2024 season holds PFF College-era records in targets (150), receptions (117), receiving yards (1,555), first downs (74), receiving yards after the catch (873), missed tackles forced (34, +10 more than the next-closest TE), and PFF Pass Route Grade (94.3).^[5]

More impressively, Fannin averaged 3.76 YPRR. This led all FBS players at all positions and is the most ever by a TE in PFF College history. Kyle Pitts’ 3.26 YPRR in 2020 is the only other instance of a TE reaching even 3.05 in a single season. Fannin’s 0.18 1D/RR is also easily a TE record and is the 6th-most by any FBS player at any position in PFF College history. Over the last eight years, there’s only one instance of an FBS player clearing both marks – DeVonta Smith in his Heisman-winning 2020 season.

Fannin’s 49.7% YMS and 3.71 YPTPA are also best-ever marks by a TE. Trey McBride’s 2021 season comes closest over the last 15 years but is still far off of Fannin by both YMS (37.1%) and YPTPA (2.83). Among WRs, Fannin’s 49.7% YMS ranks behind only 2017 D.J. Moore (53.4%) and 2014 Tyler Boyd (52.1%) in PFF College history.^[6] It’s mind-boggling to see a receiver garner nearly 50% of his team’s passing yards. Defenses knew there was only one player on the field they needed to account for and stop, but they couldn’t stop him, and Bowling Green was smart to force Fannin the ball. Despite the extra defensive attention, Bowling Green QBs averaged 10.4 YPA when targeting Fannin – this represented a 76% improvement versus all other throws (5.9 YPA).

Basically, by just about every stat that my model deems to be significant, Fannin’s 2024 season looks like the best TE season of all time and potentially better than any season from any WR in this year’s class. And we haven’t even mentioned a crucial point – Fannin will get drafted in April, and he’ll still have to wait another three months before he can legally celebrate with alcohol. He’s 2 years and 1 month younger than Warren, giving him, at least at surface level, the more impressive age-adjusted season.^[7]

Fannin and Warren both had record-breaking 2024 seasons. And although Fannin’s season might look better if age-adjusted, Warren’s looks significantly better if competition-adjusted, which is the more important factor. There’s a night-and-day difference between the Power Conference competition Warren was seeing in the Big Ten versus Fannin’s Group of Five competition in the Mid-American Conference. According to my data, Fannin’s 2024 strength of schedule ranks in the 27th percentile versus Warren’s 96th percentile and Colston Loveland’s 99th percentile.

Strength of schedule and Power Conference pedigree matter less at the TE position than for WRs. But it does still matter; it muddies the analytical waters, making us less sure of ourselves.^[8]

This is probably enough for us to confidently rank Warren ahead of Fannin (and Colston Loveland as well, if we factor in projected draft capital), but I don’t think it seriously diminishes Fannin as a “great TE prospect” in his own right. Don’t forget, in 2022, I was higher on Group of Five TEs Trey McBride and Isaiah Likely than just about anyone else. And now remember that Fannin’s production profile blows both of them out of the water, with no other TE in history (save for maybe San Diego State’s Tim Delaney in 1969) coming all that close.

Plus, Fannin was utterly dominant and at his best against his toughest competition. He faced two AP top-25 schools, tagging Penn State for 137 receiving yards (one of just three 100-yard games Penn State gave up all year) and then Texas A&M for 145 receiving yards (the most they gave up all year), with both games being only one-score losses. And then, in Bowling Green’s Bowl Game against Arkansas State, Fannin had 17 catches for 213 yards and a touchdown. That set the TE record for most receiving yards in a bowl game all-time and also tied the TE record (tied with Tyler Warren) for most receptions in any game all-time.

So, already, Fannin was reminding me of an uber-rich man’s Trey McBride or Isaiah Likely, but that’s going to be dependent upon how he does at the Combine. (The NFL Mock Draft Cognoscenti expects Fannin to bomb the Combine, so he might be closer to Likely – a sub-25th percentile athlete who fell in the Draft due to athleticism concerns – than McBride.)

Unfortunately, we have another concern that would invoke names like Jaheim Bell, Jaylen Samuels, Charles Clay, Brevin Jordan, Kyle Juszczyk, and Chris Cooley regarding fair comparisons. This concern – a big one – is that Fannin isn’t really a “TE” but is more of a fullback or H-back, that his upside is capped, and that he will never be a full-time player in the NFL. Mel Kiper called Fannin his No. 2-rated fullback/H-back in the class back in January, and then – to our horror – Fannin continually lined up as a fullback at Senior Bowl practices.

None of this really makes sense to me – Fannin is 6’3 and 238 pounds (nearly identical to Evan Engram), he just led the nation in catches and yards, and he spent most of his time inline in college while rarely ever lining up out of the backfield. Why would you want to turn this into the next Kyle Juszczyk? I have no idea. He wasn’t used like this at all in college.^[9]

So, this would be pretty bad^[10], but I don’t know that this is exactly the consensus opinion on Fannin. Others within the NFL Mock Draft Industrial Complex call Fannin more of “an oversized WR” than a true TE. While this may be a concern for NFL teams, this can actually be ideal for fantasy owners. If Fannin’s blocking^[11] is such a liability that it’s keeping him off the field, that would obviously stink.

But if he’s basically Trey McBride – playing nearly every snap and never being asked to pass-block – it typically doesn’t get much better than that for fantasy. So, if this is a knock on Fannin, it’s not a terrible one. (I’ll discuss all this at greater length in the Oronde Gadsden section. Gadsden possesses the same wart, but his might be malignant.)

Final Ruling / TLDR

Fannin and Warren both offer elite upside, but Warren carries considerably less risk and should be ranked a tier above. While Fannin’s analytics profile slightly outperforms Colston Loveland’s – even after adjustments for strength of schedule – Loveland’s superior projected draft capital makes him the better prospect in my eyes.

Nonetheless, Fannin’s numbers are off the charts, and he looks like a legitimately great TE prospect with drool-inducing upside. No matter what happens next, he’s a player I’ll be targeting heavily in rookie drafts.

3. Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan

Height: 6’5”, Weight: 245 lbs, Age: 21.0

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 1 (TE2)

Colston Loveland graduated from Gooding High School as a 4-star recruit with 235 career catches, 3,141 yards, and 35 touchdowns. He was named the 2021 Idaho Gatorade Player of the Year as a senior. This was on the back of a 62-968-13 receiving line and a 33-352-4 rushing line, while also recording 57 tackles, 18 tackles for a loss, 5.5 sacks, and two interceptions on defense.

Loveland played sparingly as an 18-year-old true freshman alongside upperclassmen TEs Luke Schoonmaker (Round 2 NFL Draft pick) and Erick All (Round 4). The following season, he broke out as the team’s TE1 – ahead of TE2 A.J. Barner (Round 4) – finishing just 3 receptions and 140 receiving yards shy of WR Roman Wilson (Round 3) for the team-highs in both categories. Michigan finished with an undefeated 15-0 record, while Loveland led the team in receiving in their national championship victory over the Washington Huskies.

This all paved the way toward a historically great 2024 season. Although he was technically less productive this season, his numbers might be just as impressive as Warren’s if controlling for how bad Michigan was on offense. Loveland’s 34.7% receiving yardage market share is the most by any Power Conference TE in at least 15 years. Impossibly, he accomplished this record-breaking feat despite missing three games.

Loveland’s YMS would then jump to 39.2% if we were to account for the three games he missed, which would have been the most by any Power Conference TE in at least 50 years.^[12] This would also more easily clear 2024 Tyler Warren’s 33.8% or 2022 Sam LaPorta’s 32.2%^[13], who rank 2nd- and 5th-best in this stat since 2014.

Among all Power Conference TEs with at least 215 routes run, only Brock Bowers averaged more YPRR than Loveland in 2023 (2.65 vs. 2.38), and only Warren beat him out in 2024 (2.77 vs. 2.67).^[14] Loveland’s seasons rank (respectively) 17th- and 7th-best since 2015, with Bowers being the only other TE with multiple seasons inside of the top 20.

The only real criticism I’m seeing from the NFL Mock Draft Cognoscenti is that he’s much more of a liability as a blocker in comparison to Warren. But for fantasy, that’s probably more a feature than a bug, especially when that TE is carrying Round 1 projected draft capital.

Final Ruling / TLDR

As alluded to in the footnotes, Loveland reminds me of a slightly richer man’s Sam LaPorta. If his projected draft capital holds, he looks like one of the five best TE prospects to come out in at least a decade.

4. Oronde Gadsden II, TE, Syracuse

Height: 6’5”, Weight: 236 lbs, Age: 21.8

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 5 (TE8)

Gadsden was a 3-star WR recruit coming out of high school and is the son of former Miami Dolphins WR Oronde Gadsden.^[15]

Gadsden barely saw the field as an 18-year-old true freshman WR. Syracuse changed his position to TE heading into the following season (2022), and Gadsden immediately broke out. In 13 games, Gadsden compiled a 61-975-6 line, averaging a team-high 75.0 receiving YPG, which was also 1.99 times as much as the next-closest Syracuse player. If we call Gadsden a TE this season, his 975 receiving yards would be the 2nd-most (behind Tyler Warren) by any Power Conference TE in at least a decade. By YPTPA, this would again rank 2nd-best behind only Warren this past decade.^[16]

But I’m not sure if we should call Gadsden a TE in 2022, even if Syracuse’s website listed him as such – only 6 of his 450 routes during the 2022 season came as an inline TE.^[17] Still… I don’t necessarily know how much this matters. Even if you want to call him a WR, it was a pretty insane season. 2.64 YPTPA as a 19-year-old WR is a 92nd percentile age-adjusted WR season. Tetairoa McMillan (proj. Round 1) and Emeka Egbuka (proj. Round 1) are the only WRs from this year’s class to beat that mark.

A season-ending Lisfranc injury on the opening drive of Syracuse’s second game derailed Gadsden’s 2023 season. He added an additional 25 pounds of playing weight (up to 240) and returned for the 2024 season, posting a 73-934-7 line through 13 games. If we call him a TE this season, his 934 receiving yards would rank top-5 by any TE this past decade, behind names like Warren, Mark Andrews, and Brock Bowers.

Gadsden mostly reprised his role as the team’s Power Slot, but he did see significantly more action inline, running 26.5% of his routes inline (up from 1.3% in 2022). This wasn’t too far off that of Warren (33.0%) or Loveland (31.1%). But in bad news, he wasn’t any good from this alignment, averaging just 1.23 YPRR versus Warren’s 3.73 or Loveland’s 3.91.

Sure, the counting stats were there for Gadsden on a pass-heavy Syracuse offense that led the FBS in pass attempts, completions, and passing yards. But he fell to (just narrowly) third on the team in receiving YPG, and he averaged just 1.93 YPRR (which ranked only 6th-best in the class).

The biggest knock on Gadsden is something I’ve previously considered to be a strength: Gadsden is “a TE in name only.” Critics argue he’s just a big slot WR and not a true tight end. That can be a major advantage or a significant drawback, dependent entirely upon playing time.

In fantasy, we want WRs masquerading as TEs – players who rarely pass-block and function as every-down WRs while benefiting from the TE designation (where fantasy points go a longer way). This is an extremely valuable role but has become increasingly rare to find in a full-time capacity. And if you’re not a full-time player, it’s nearly impossible to matter for fantasy.

Over the last three seasons, Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce are the only TEs to rank top-15 in route share while running fewer than 22.5% of their routes inline. Those are two all-time greats and all-time great outliers. Gadsden devotees will raise Darren Waller comparisons, and maybe he can grow into that, but Waller played inline on 61.9% of his snaps across his back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. So, that doesn’t work for me.

The best comparison for Gadsden, given his concerning lack of inline production^[18], is probably 2021 Mike Gesicki, when he ranked third at the position in routes run, despite running just 7.0% of his routes inline. Eagles-era Jordan Matthews (a WR) would also work as a comp. And maybe also Dalton Kincaid (or at least what the Bills hoped for when they drafted Kincaid).

But these aren’t very inspiring comps to me. Kincaid hasn’t come close to living up to his draft capital or hype, and Matthews and Gesicki are rarities, just two players over a 10-year sample who both fizzled out by the time their rookie contract was up. So, this is an archetype that rarely pans out.^[19] But then, it also feels a bit like a dying breed in today’s NFL.

On the first pass, I was sure Gadsden would be one of “My Guys” – a player I’d want on all of my rosters. But the more I dug into his profile, the more I seemed to fall into a spiral of pessimism; the more I began to suspect Gadsden would be doomed to be a part-time NFL player with a capped snap share (due to his various limitations). Perhaps he really is the ultimate “tweener,” as his height-weight combo suggests – he’s not quite good enough to be a full-time WR because he won’t be able to consistently beat NFL-caliber CBs^[20], and then if his inline YPRR was legitimately terrible against collegiate competition, what makes us think he can effectively win against NFL linebackers and safeties as a TE?

But I don’t really think things are this grim. Not for a player with such incredibly dank stats. Gadsden is of an archetype that – by necessity – carries a low hit rate but also tremendous upside when it does hit. (Remember, in fantasy football drafts, we want to be leaning into upside because #UpsideWinsChampionships.) So even if the odds are greater that Gadsden doesn’t pan out than that he’s the next Mark Andrews (just an absolute freak from Day 1), the next Mike Gesicki (a team values this skillset enough to award him with high-end draft capital), or the next Darren Waller (if he can grow into that, continuing to bulk up, and learn the nuances of the position)… I’m going to want to be betting on that upside.

Final Ruling / TLDR

Gadsden is an extremely high-risk / high-reward prospect. If you know me, you know those are my favorite cost-adjusted bets to me. So he’s very likely to be a player I’ll want to be drafting and want to be betting on. But so much of his projection seems like it will come down to his Combine performance and then to draft capital and landing spot.

If his Round 5 projected draft capital holds, he’ll no doubt be a long-shot bet, however. And any dynasty player drafting him will have to remain patient.

5. Gunnar Helm, TE, Texas

Height: 6’5”, Weight: 249 lbs, Age: 22.6

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 3 (TE6)

Helm was a three-star recruit who turned down offers from Alabama and Auburn to play for Texas. He played sparingly and accomplished very little through his first three seasons with the Longhorns – playing behind TE Ja’Tavion Sanders (Round 4 NFL Draft pick) – before breaking out in 2024.

But Helm broke out in a major way, compiling a 60-786-7 line for the No. 4 ranked Longhorns. His 786 receiving yards is the 12th-most by any Power Conference TE since at least 2014. And he led Texas in receptions despite competing for targets with WR Matthew Golden (proj. Round 1) and WR Isaiah Bond (proj. Round 2).

All this sounds great, but the major concern here is that his numbers aren’t too dissimilar from that of Sanders; Helm averaged 49.1 YPG in 2024, just barely ahead of Sanders’ 48.7 in 2023, or Sanders’ 47.2 YPG in 2022. Keep in mind, Sanders’ target competition was at least on par but probably tougher than Helm’s, and Sanders is also 6 months younger or was 2.5 years younger in 2022. The jury is still out on Sanders – who likely fell in the Draft after bombing the Combine (46th percentile SPORQ) – but this does raise a question over how much Helm’s production was merely a product of Texas’ offense and scheme.^[21]

Helm’s career-best 1.63 YPRR isn’t anything to write home about either. Warren, Fannin, Loveland, Gadsden, Brant Kuithe, Terrance Ferguson, and Bryson Nesbit^[22] all had seasons over 2.00 YPRR.

Final Ruling / TLDR

He’s “fine,” but maybe too unexciting for me. I doubt he’ll be a player I actively go out of my way to draft unless he blows up the Combine.

NFL Likes Them, My Model Doesn’t

• It will be hard to sell you on consensus TE4 Elijah Arroyo (proj. Round 2) based purely on the numbers, although every film expert I’ve talked to is enamored with him. Like with most TEs, Arroyo accomplished very little as an 18-year-old true freshman. He was then unfortunately plagued by injuries over his next two seasons – he suffered a season-ending injury in the fourth game of his sophomore season, which would also cost him the first five games of his junior year. After compiling just 11 catches through his first three seasons, Arroyo “broke out” in 2024 with a 35-590-7 line. But I wouldn’t call it a truly spectacular breakout seeing as how he finished just fourth on the team in receiving yards. The best stat working in his favor is that he averaged 9.1 YAC/R in 2024, a mark which ranks 6th-best of any Power Conference TE since 2015 (96th percentile). That being said, proj. Round 5 TE Terrance Ferguson’s 2024 season ranked right behind him in 7th place (9.0 YAC/R). And, in truth, Ferguson’s 2024 season looks analytically identical in almost every regard (including target competition), minus the fact that Ferguson’s 2.05 YPRR was considerably better than Arroyo’s 1.70. The film bros may very well be right – perhaps Arroyo’s poor injury luck is gumming up the works here – it’s just hard to argue in his favor based purely on the numbers.

• Consensus TE5 Mason Taylor (proj. Round 3) is an even tougher sell, having never cleared 1.25 YPRR in any season at LSU. Stanford’s Dalton Schultz is the only TE in my database (since 2014) to have a 600-yard season in the NFL despite never eclipsing 1.25 YPRR in any collegiate season. Taylor also accounted for a pathetic 6 of his team’s 96 receiving touchdowns over the last three seasons. That said, he has a Hall of Fame pedigree – his father is Hall of Famer Jason Taylor, and his uncle is Hall of Famer Zach Thomas – and he’s also an early declare. The best stat on him is probably that he was an immediate contributor in his 18-year-old true freshman season, starting 13 of 14 games and totaling 414 receiving yards (at the time, the 2nd-most ever by an LSU TE).

Super-Deep Sleeper Tight Ends

Brant Kuithe, TE, Utah

Height: 6’2”, Weight: 236 lbs, Age: 25.3 (lol)

Proj. Draft Capital: UDFA (TE22)

Kuithe is 25 years old. He was in the same high school recruiting class as Kyle Pitts. And he’s projected to go undrafted in the 2025 NFL Draft.

So, obviously, this is a tough sell, but my boy deserves a shoutout because the stats are incredibly dank, and my model has liked him since the first Trump term.

Kuithe has seasons ranking in the 99th, 97th, and 95th percentiles by YPRR. He cleared a 1.75 YPRR in all 6 seasons at Utah. For perspective, Elijah Arroyo, Gunnar Helm, and Mason Taylor have never hit that once in any season. He also has two 98th-percentile seasons by MTF/R.

Fellow Utah Ute TE Dalton Kincaid (Round 1 NFL Draft pick) was outproduced by Kuithe in 2021. And, even in Kincaid’s breakout 2022 campaign, Kuithe was outproducing Kincaid prior to his Week 4 season-ending injury. Kuithe then sat out all of 2023, and Utah’s TE1 totaled just 166 receiving yards in his absence. Still, a COVID-shortened 2020 season and poor injury luck from 2022-2023 likely only played a minor role in Kuithe’s seven years at Utah; he could have (should have) declared for the Draft in 2021 but chose to remain in school, signaling that he received only minor interest from NFL teams. Likely exacerbating the issue is his tweener size and tweener usage – just 18% of Kuithe’s career routes have come inline, only slightly ahead of Gadsden’s 14%.

So, although the stats are dank, I think it’s pretty clear he’s a longshot to hear his name called in April.