A lack of NFL football, or football in general, is a terrible thing. But football is still hanging around, thanks to the UFL! And since DraftKings is offering DFS tournaments, it’s time to discuss the top plays and contrarian options so we can bink some UFL tournaments.
I’ll go position by position, highlighting my favorite plays for tournaments. I'll include a TL;DR for those who don’t want to read my reasoning and just want the top-value plays. I’ll also include teams’ implied totals directly below to help readers get a sense of the offenses Vegas thinks will put the most points on the board.
Team Totals
Birmingham Stallions (20.0) @ Michigan Panthers (18.5)
Memphis Showboats (14.5) @ DC Defenders (22.5)
Houston Roughnecks (15.25) @ Arlington Renegades (23.75)
San Antonio Brahmas (16.25) @ St. Louis Battlehawks (23.25)
TL;DR
In the TL;DR, I’ll list the top plays in order of value (according to me). This isn’t super strict, it does not factor in ownership, and in some cases, it’s sort of arbitrary. It also doesn’t matter nearly as much as my readers think it does. What matters is maximizing the correlations within your lineups, and ensuring you include at least a few players on each tournament team who should be on the lower end of ownership (I highlight a few in my write-ups). Get creative!
Plays ranked in order, with tier 1 in bold, and assumes notable questionable players suit up…
QB: Manny Wilkins, Alex McGough, Bryce Perkins, Jordan Ta’amu, Kellen Mond, Luis Perez
RB: Kirk Merritt, Ricky Person, Nate McCrary, Jacob Saylors, Dae Dae Hunter, Jarveon Howard, Kalen Ballage, Abram Smith, Jalen Jackson, Jashaun Corbin, John Lovett
WR/TE: Cornell Powell, Malik Turner, Isaiah Winstead, Jacob Harris, Ty Scott, Jonathan Adams, Marcus Simms, Davion Davis, Sal Cannella, Chris Rowland, Justin Hall, Tyler Vaughns, Jontre Kirklin
QB
Bryce Perkins ($9,400) – Perkins looked awesome on Sunday, finishing the day with 18.9 DraftKings points on a 75% snap share. Perkins has now played 11 quarters of football in his spring career, averaging 25.4 fantasy points per four quarters. We sadly can’t quite price Perkins for all 4 quarters of action this week; the broadcast and Twitter reports both suggested the Panthers wanted this to be closer to a 50/50 split before Perkins played too well to be kept off the field. We can’t touch Perkins in cash for that reason, but he makes for a great tournament play this week – and I’d consider him the overall QB1 in season-long formats if we assume he will outright claim the starting job within a few weeks.
Kellen Mond ($9,200) – Mond was one of the biggest fantasy disappointments of Week 1. He was frequently missing throws, logging a rather pathetic 5.1 YPA. But far more distressing to his fantasy value was the lack of designed rushes (just 1 in Week 1). I pointed out in my Week 1 UFL article that the upside case for Mond largely revolved around designed rushing. Without a handful of designed carries every game, I’m not sure we can treat Mond as much more than a Luis Perez-type player with a bit more upside thanks to his scrambles. All of this can still change; I was optimistic the designed runs would occur near the goal line, and San Antonio didn’t run a single play inside the 10 last week. For Week 2, I don’t mind attempting a buy-low in DFS tournaments (especially in larger fields), but Mond’s season-long outlook certainly took a hit after what we saw on Saturday.
Manny Wilkins ($9,600) – Wilkins looked incredible last week running the football, finishing with 10 carries (3 designed, 7 scrambles) for 43 yards and 2 TDs. He earned 50% of the Battlehawks inside the five carries and was generally efficient as a passer (8.6 YPA). On the broadcast, Joel Klatt noted that HC Anthony Becht wanted to play QB2 Max Duggan for at least a drive in the first half, but Wilkins played too well for that to be viable. These are all great signs for Wilkins – who is aggressively underpriced if you assume anything close to 100% of snaps. The only issue is that Wilkins is extremely limited as a passer, so I’ll largely be playing him with zero or one stacking partners throughout my lineups.
Alex McGough ($9,500) – McGough faced 19 pressures last week, easily the highest mark of any UFL QB. And this was essentially an offensive line issue; Birmingham registered the single-worst PFF pass blocking grade (23.5) I’ve ever seen in professional football. The good news is that I still anticipate McGough finishing the year as a top-3 UFL fantasy QB (he did run for 84 yards on Sunday). The bad news is he’s playing the Michigan Panthers this week – a team that finished 2nd in PFF pass rush grade last year (81.4) and returned almost every defensive starter. Birmingham’s offense is likely to struggle again if they can’t keep McGough clean, but I do like taking shots here in DFS tournaments in the hope Birmingham (the most successful franchise in spring football history) figures out their protection issues. After all, McGough has one of the greatest QB fantasy seasons of all time under his belt.
RB
Week 1 Weighted Opportunity:
Kirk Merritt ($6,300) – I usually go in order of DraftKings price, but Merritt’s usage was so encouraging that he needs to be discussed first. Merritt ranked behind only Abram Smith in snap share (73%) and route share (70%), earning 4 targets and 8 carries. That may not seem like eye-popping usage, but we need to remember that Houston ran only 50 plays (Merritt earned an opportunity on 24% of them), including just one play inside the 10. Merritt dominated touches between the tackles, which likely makes him the favorite for goal line carries regardless of gamescript. I noted in the UFL Bell Cow Report that Merritt could finish as a top-4 fantasy RB in the UFL. After seeing how he was used in Week 1, he’s the clear RB2 in UFL fantasy behind only Jacob Saylors. This makes him a screaming DFS value priced as the RB11 on DraftKings – granted I will have some added trepidation this week if Anthony Brown is the announced starter.
Update: Anthony Brown is the starter. I still like Merritt, but this decreases his upside for Week 2.
Jacob Saylors ($10,000) and Jarveon Howard ($6,000) – Saylors picked up right where he left off in 2024, leading Week 1 in weighted opportunity. St. Louis came out massively run-heavy (44% pass rate) in a dominant victory that led to Saylors barely playing in the 2nd half. We can likely anticipate a similar game plan this week; the Battlehawks are 7.0 point favorites and San Antonio was just gashed on the ground by Kalen Ballage in Week 1. Hyper-efficiency from this backfield feels like a near-lock with how well Manny Wilkins can run – but I do wonder if we see this become closer to a 50/50 split after Howard averaged 8.8 YPC on 13 attempts. After the first quarter, we saw a relatively even split in carries between this duo. Both are strong DFS plays this week, but I do prefer Howard a bit more for tournaments in case he closes the gap in usage here. And for season-long purposes, I’d consider Howard a top-10 fantasy asset at RB, with the potential to move into the top-6.
Abram Smith ($8,700) – Smith returned to the role he earned in 2023. He didn’t do much with it last week (3.7 DraftKings points), but this is an even better spot. Smith’s carry-heavy role makes him an easy comparison to Derrick Henry, and we always want to play Henry in games we expect his team to win. That’s no different for Smith. This week, the Defenders are favored by 8.0 points, and Smith could push for 20 carries if DC can stay in control throughout the contest. He’s a great pairing with the Defenders’ defense.
Anthony McFarland ($8,200) – McFarland easily had the most frustrating usage of any player in Week 1. After leading the UFL in every efficiency stat that matters last season, he was relegated to RB3 on San Antonio, earning fewer touches (5) than John Lovett (9) and Jashaun Corbin (7). Even worse, McFarland’s snap share was 25%, and 4 of his 5 touches came on a single drive in the 2nd quarter. I still believe McFarland’s talent will win out long-term, but it’s hard to see a path to a top-8 fantasy finish for season-long purposes if this usage continues. For DFS this week, the only RB I’d consider on San Antonio is Corbin ($4,500) – but even that feels thin despite a near-minimum price tag.
Kalen Ballage ($8,000) and Dae Dae Hunter ($5,500) – This backfield was almost as surprising as San Antonio in terms of raw usage. Ballage looked great as a runner, and finished the week with the highest PFF rushing grade (79.9) of any RB. Hunter was the opposite, averaging just 2.5 YPC and earning a 50.2 PFF rush grade (2nd-worst of all Week 1 RBs). Considering those stats, I can’t understand how Hunter finished the week with 16 carries – the most of any RB. Despite Hunter weighing 40 pounds less than Ballage, he out-carried Ballage between the tackles and earned 6 red-zone carries (twice as many as Ballage). Infuriatingly, De’Veon Smith ($7,800) played just three snaps (all of which were in the T-formation at the one-yard line), recording 3 carries and 3 rushing TDs.
I’m not quite sure what to make of this. Hunter was inefficient on his carries last year (57.5 PFF rush grade), and Ballage was running like one of the best modern spring football RBs of all-time in Week 1. Not to mention the X-factor of Smith stealing the highest-value touches in this backfield. The immediate hope is that Arlington makes Smith (who barely plays on offense or special teams) inactive in Week 2 – which would massively boost the TD equity of both Arlington RBs. Assuming the Renegades keep all three backs active, I’d consider Ballage and Hunter as compelling matchup-based DFS plays this week. In Week 1, the Houston Roughnecks allowed an absurd 268 rushing yards to St. Louis. It isn’t hard to make a case for hyper-efficient rushing from either back (especially Ballage) if Houston’s run defense remains as bad as it was in Week 1.
Nate McCrary ($5,600) and Matt Colburn ($7,500) – McCrary was the listed starter in Week 1, and he lived up to the RB1 moniker, earning 58% of backfield weighted opportunity and 100% of red zone touches. Moving forward, I’d consider McCrary a fringe top-5 fantasy RB for the remainder of the year. He’s almost certainly capped at ~65% of backfield usage, but when you combine the leading role with great red zone usage, you get a fairly compelling fantasy asset. For DFS, he’s one of the most mispriced RBs of Week 2 – clocking in as a top-5 value in our projections.
Deneric Prince ($7,000) and Jalen Jackson ($5,000) – Jackson led the way here in terms of weighted opportunity, but Prince beat him out in both snap share (60%) and route share (68%). HC and OC Ken Whisenhunt has returned from his leave of absence – and I noted in the UFL Bell Cow Report that Whisenhunt has historically been adverse to a single bell cow RB. I still expect a split moving forward, but I do think it’ll be Prince that wins out in terms of usage (likely capped at around ~65% of backfield weighted opportunity). A few more weeks of data will help a lot here, and I can’t say I expect much from a backfield when it’s connected to a team with a 14.5-point implied team total in Week 2.
Ricky Person ($6,800) – Person is looking at something resembling a bell cow workload now that CJ Marable (personal) has been ruled out of Week 2. Person set season-high marks in backfield weighted opportunity share (59% in Week 5, 84% in Week 8) in his two games last season without Marable. Marable earned 86% of backfield weighted opportunity when Person missed Week 10. I feel safe calling Person a top-6 value at RB in DFS. Still, I do worry about generally offensive ineptitude against the league’s best defense after what we saw from Birmingham in Week 1.
WR/TE (Quick Hits)
Hakeem Butler ($8,500) posted a goose egg last week on just 1 target. This is concerning, but roughly expected with Manny Wilkins at QB. St. Louis isn’t going to throw unless they have to, and the passing offense is more concentrated around screens (which boosts the floor of Jahcour Pearson) – something that doesn’t really play into Butler’s skillset. His season-long outlook isn’t great (fringe top-12 WR), but I still want to take shots in DFS tournaments because we know he’s a big-play machine.
Ty Scott ($8,400) led all Week 1 pass catchers in targets (10). He’s the main cog in DC’s passing attack, and after a hyper-efficient 2024, he has as good a chance to finish as the overall WR1 as any player in the UFL. He’s a great DFS value until he hits a $9,500 price tag.
Deon Cain ($8,100) and Davion Davis ($4,700) are the only WRs we can trust in Birmingham. Cain earned a 75% route share and 7 targets (4 more than the next-closest Stallion) – which is rather encouraging after Birmingham had him capped at ~60% of routes for most of 2024. Davis is only part-time in the (fairly valuable) Birmingham slot role, but he’s cheap enough that we can feel okay taking shots on him in DFS tournaments (ideally stacked with McGough).
Jonathan Adams ($6,600) is probably too cheap after earning a 27% target share in Week 1. Interim HC Jim Turner did note in Week 1 that he wanted to rotate all positions as much as possible, so I do wonder if we see Adams’ 65% route share in Week 1 jump closer to 90% now that Ken Whisenhunt (who said he will play the best players) is back as the HC and OC. Following that logic, we could also see more playing time and target volume for slot WR Kwamie Lassiter ($4,800) – who feels like a decent buy-low in tournaments after doing nothing with a 77% route share last week.
Cornell Powell ($4,500) earned 6 targets in Week 1 on a team-leading 79% route share for the Defenders. He will get out-targeted by Ty Scott, but a full-time role on the outside is worth far more than his Week 2 DraftKings price implies. He’s a cash game lock this week.
Isaiah Winstead ($4,400) was a listed starter in Week 1, but far more surprising than his 75% route share was that he ran 57% of his routes from the slot after running just 25% of his routes from the slot in 2024. Winstead’s floor is notably higher than in 2024, thanks to the shorter targets his slot designation enables. I still don’t expect massive fantasy production here, but he’s the best value among Arlington WRs this week.
Jacob Harris ($4,100) earned a near-full-time route share (71%) in Week 1, and finished 2nd on the team in target share (21%) – behind only Jontre Kirklin ($9,500). On film, it looked like the Brahmas treated Harris as their version of Mike Evans, feeding him deep targets where he would use his size (6’5”, 210) to box out opposing defensive backs. Assuming this continues, Harris is one of the best WR values of Week 2 – but I worry about how much he will accomplish as a pass catcher after how poor Kellen Mond looked throwing in Week 1.
Malik Turner ($3,800) recorded a 93% route share and 9.0 fantasy points in Week 1, largely commanding the slot role that Trey Quinn vacated. Any full-time WR priced under $4,000 is a massive luxury for DFS, and Turner is no exception. That said, Turner is still the clear WR3 in Michigan for as long as Siaosi Mariner ($7,400) and Marcus Simms ($7,900) remain active on gamedays.
