2025 UFL Bell Cow Report

In this article, I’ll give my detailed thoughts on every backfield in the UFL. I’ll review every relevant RB's potential upside, downside, and bell cow potential. This article should help everyone playing UFL DFS (or the few of you who play redraft UFL fantasy) gain a better understanding of the RBs in the league.

I’ll be going team-by-team, but for those of you who hate reading, you can skip to the rankings at the end of this piece.

Supplemental Material

Statistically Significant: Weighted Opportunity

Bell Cow or Bust: The Optimal RB Strategy

Who were the top bell cows in 2024?

Most efficient bell cows of 2024

Immediately, you might ask, “What is that differential column?” The differential column is simply the difference between a player’s WO/G and their actual DraftKings fantasy points per game. This is a measure of efficiency.

Bell cows in the red zone

Arlington Renegades

If there is one thing we know about Arlington, it’s that they want their run game to revolve around a big, bruising back. Last year’s workhorse (De’Veon Smith) is no longer with the team, but he’s been seamlessly replaced by the similarly sized Kalen Ballage. Ballage is joined by 2024 holdover Dae Dae Hunter, and spring football rookie Ike Irabor out of Union College.

Update: Irabor was cut, and De’Veon Smith was signed by the Renegades. I would be surprised if both Ballage and Smith were active on gameday, as they are fairly redundant players. But if both are active, I’d anticipate they split the ‘workhorse’ role that I highlighted below.

Looking back at last season, Smith earned 63% of backfield-weighted opportunity (the 2nd-most of any player) after recording 69% of backfield-weighted opportunity in the 2023 XFL season with Arlington. This is close (especially in spring football) to true bell cow usage.

The fantasy value here primarily derives from red zone usage and a solid pass game role. Smith has averaged 3.0 red zone carries per game (would have ranked 5th-best last year) and 2.8 targets per game (would have ranked 8th-best) in his two seasons with Arlington. It gets even better close to the goal line; Smith averaged 1.0 carries per game inside the five over the last two years – a mark that would have ranked behind only CJ Marable and John Lovett last year.

Thankfully, we have a good idea that role will belong to Kalen Ballage (and recently signed De’Veon Smith). Ballage (6’1”, 230 pounds) is the only RB on the roster with the size to command a notable goal role. He’s been spotted in practice making plays in the receiving game, and most importantly, he’s earned early praise from HC Bob Stoops. When asked about camp standouts, Stoops did not hesitate to say, “Kalen Ballage, our RB. I really believe he has a chance to make some plays.”

Ballage last saw action for the San Antonio Brahmas in the 2023 season (where he finished 3rd in the XFL in weighted opportunity, at 12.8 WO/G), but unfortunately tore his Achilles in the Brahmas' 5th game. I don’t know if we can bank on efficiency from a 29-year-old RB who is ~24 months removed from an Achilles tear, but the volume should be there. If Smith winds up inactive in Week 1, I’d view Ballage as a fringe top-5 fantasy RB, with a chance to crack the top-3 if Arlington can maintain leads and consistently get the ball inside the five. But if we see both backs active on gamedays, this will be a very gross committee with minimal fantasy upside.

Dae Dae Hunter will be the passing down back here. That’s interesting for showdown contests, sure, but we need to remember that this RB2 role was already borderline worthless; non-De’Veon Smith RBs averaged just 6.9 WO/G last year.

Birmingham Stallions

Birmingham's backfield is the easiest in the league to analyze, as its trio of RBs (CJ Marable, Ricky Person, and Larry Rountree) were all with the team in 2024.

There was a clear hierarchy within this backfield. Rountree was active only three times last season – exclusively in games that either Marable or Person missed. If we exclude the games with Rountree, Marable earned 50.1% of backfield-weighted opportunity, while Person earned 49.9%.

I’m sure NFL fans already have this comparison at the front of their brains, but this backfield is so evenly split that it can only be compared to the 2024 Detroit Lions. Marable draws a bit more work in the passing game (3.0 targets per game, 53% route share) than Person (2.0 targets per game, 38% route share), and Marable (24) drew more red zone opportunities than Person (17) in their games together.

Still, Person was able to even out these slight discrepancies with better efficiency because he plays like a runaway train and earned the 3rd-best PFF rushing grade (80.0) in the UFL last season as a result.

For fantasy, neither of these backs offers true bell cow potential for as long as the other remains healthy. In their seven regular-season games together, Person scored more than 15.0 DraftKings points just twice (high of 18.2), and Marable only hit a high of 14.5.

But we can get excited for a potentially massive workload if either player misses time. Person set season-high marks in backfield weighted opportunity share (59% in Week 5, 84% in Week 8) in his two games without Marable. Marable earned 86% of backfield weighted opportunity when Person missed Week 10. So, there is bell-cow potential here, but the prerequisite is a missed game from Person or Marable.

My only other nitpicky concern here is that backfield goal line carries may take a hit with Alex McGough (the 2023 USFL MVP) back under center for the Stallions. This Birmingham offense is based on RPO and read-option concepts, which generally gives their QB quite a bit of control over who handles the ball near the goal line. Last season, Birmingham QBs combined for 6 carries inside the 10, but McGough handled 11 such carries during his 2023 MVP campaign.

Assuming that trend holds, I wouldn’t be surprised if this backfield fell short of the collective 22.0 WO/G that Birmingham averaged last year – but you could argue that if McGough makes this offense more efficient, a few stolen goal-line carries from the QB won’t matter for these RBs’ fantasy success. That’s not to mention the possibility that Matt Corral could start – which would undoubtedly increase both RBs’ involvement at the goal line relative to what we’ve seen the last two years.

DC Defenders

The 2024 Defenders featured one of the least efficient backfields in modern spring football history (collective 3.4 YPC). There were two main reasons for the problematic run game: DC saw its PFF run-blocking grade drop from 71.9 in 2023 to 57.3 in 2024, and star RB Abram Smith tore his ACL during last season’s training camp.

The line issues remain up in the air. Nine different linemen earned at least 120 offensive snaps for the Defenders last season, and only two of their top-5 (by PFF grading) returned for 2025. Maybe a 34-year-old DJ Fluker can be the anchor at tackle that DC needs, but I do come into this season with some trepidation about the quality of this offensive line. Given the turnover year-over-year, along with the sheer number of injuries DC’s offensive line sustained last year, it’s difficult to say how much they will improve – but I do expect at least a moderate step forward (given how bad they were a year ago, after being above-average in 2023).

Update: Fluker was cut.

I highlighted this in my UFL power rankings, but it’s hard to understate how important the run game is for DC. DC averaged 29.8 PPG in 2023 (the single-best offensive season in spring football history) on the back of 157 carries and 5.0 YPC from Abram Smith. In 2024, the team’s YPC dropped to 3.4 (a ~23% dip from 2023), and DC averaged just 20.9 PPG.

Smith appears fully healthy (now 12 months removed from his ACL tear). He heads a backfield featuring former Colt Deon Jackson and a holdover from the 2024 season in Darius Hagans.

I fully expect Smith to command this backfield, while Hagans and Jackson are left fighting for the minimally valuable RB2 role in this offense.

In Smith’s last full season (2023), he averaged 12.7 WO/G (would have ranked 5th-best in the 2024 UFL), but was quite efficient on that workload (14.9 DraftKings FPG, would have ranked 3rd-best last year). He played on 72% of his team’s snaps, a mark that would have only trailed Darius Victor in the 2024 UFL. And he set the modern spring record for regular-season rushing yards (789), granted he earned 44% of those yards in just two games.

Smith is the rare spring football RB who can push for 20-plus carries in an individual game, but a lack of receiving work largely caps his fantasy upside. And it’s not entirely his fault; DC RBs earned the 2nd-fewest targets (22) in the 2023 XFL season, and the fewest targets (21) in the 2024 UFL season. This passing offense doesn’t scheme up targets to RBs, and QB Jordan Ta’amu is often liable to run rather than check down (a common issue for Konami QBs).

That leaves Smith as the UFL’s Derrick Henry. He’s dust in games DC will need to throw (0.09 TPRR in 2023), but he can break slates when he gets fed against a favorable run defense. That’s generally easy to handle for DFS (play Smith in games you expect DC to win handily), but Smith’s full-season fantasy viability will come down to just how good of a team the Defenders end up being this year.

Houston Roughnecks

Mark Thompson is no longer with Houston, leaving TJ Pledger and Kirk Merritt as the most likely candidates to lead a backfield that also includes spring football veteran ZaQuandre White and former Akron RB Lorenzo Lingard.

My expectation here is that one of Lingard or White will get cut, with the remaining player fighting to be active on gameday as the Roughnecks RB3. Based on what we saw last season, that RB3 role isn’t worth much; Tiyon Evans averaged just 1.8 WO/G in Weeks 1 through 4 before Houston opted to stick with two active RBs on gamedays for the remainder of the year.

Merritt and Pledger should form the classic version of a ‘thunder and lightning’ backfield. Merritt is a converted WR, and it shows in both his play style and target numbers (Merritt’s 5.3 targets per game is the most by any RB in modern spring football history). He was remarkably efficient – ranking behind only Anthony McFarland in weighted opportunity differential (+2.5). But this was almost entirely a function of his receiving prowess. Merritt earned just nine carries in his three games, and was rather inefficient on those touches (3.1 YPC).

Still, Merritt did earn two carries inside the five last season (largely because he’s Houston’s two-minute back, and they weren’t willing to substitute in those situations), so there is some tangible TD equity here beyond a great receiving floor.

At a base level, this is a fairly compelling fantasy profile. Merritt should earn more targets than any RB, have the opportunity for modest rushing work (plus the occasional goal-line carry), and be one of the most efficient RBs in the UFL.

But you can paint a pretty excellent upside case here. As Ryan Heath pointed out in his 2024 article on weighted opportunity, hyper-efficiency (like what we saw from Merritt last year) is a proven precursor to an increase in volume. Coaches watch film from the year before, see players like Merritt jump off the screen, and decide they need to force-feed them the ball. Curtis Johnson has already stated this offseason that “Kirk Merritt is one of the better players we have.”

Now, I don’t trust Johnson to make optimal decisions, but I do think Merritt’s play from last season (and his dynamism in the receiving game) will lead to an increase in the 11.0 WO/G he averaged in 2024. I wouldn’t be shocked if Merritt finished 2025 as a top-4 fantasy RB by both usage and production.

TJ Pledger rounds out the backfield and is the far less exciting player within the duo. He was partially held back by an inept offense last season (Houston’s 15.8 PPG was the 3rd-worst offensive output in modern spring football history). Still, his raw usage was mediocre in his games with Merritt. Pledger averaged 6.8 DraftKings FPG and 8.6 WO/G in those contests – and Merritt earned the team’s lone goal-line carry.

The bull case for Pledger revolves entirely around offensive efficiency. He’s likely total dust for fantasy if the Roughnecks are among the league’s worst offenses or if they average the pathetic 74.9 rushing YPG we saw in 2024. But if Houston can emerge as an average or above-average offense, Pledger will have opportunities to push for 15-plus carries in positive game scripts – which could make him a solid fantasy asset.

Update: TJ Pledger was cut. ZaQuandre White and Lorenzo Lingard will serve in Pledger’s role. If both players are active along with Merritt, it would be nearly impossible to use them in fantasy outside of single-game showdown contests. But if only one of White or Lingard is active, we could roughly assign them Pledger’s projected role.

Memphis Showboats

If any backfield is a guessing game this year, it’s Memphis. The Showboats are led by a new HC (Ken Whisenhunt) who has been incredibly ambiguous regarding personnel and training camp standouts throughout his media availability.

And it doesn’t help that every Memphis RB is new to spring football. DeWayne McBride, Deneric Prince, Jalen Jackson, and Jacob Kibodi make up the Showboats backfield.

Again, we really have no information here – so we will primarily be relying on Whisenhunt’s historical tendencies combined with these RBs prior resumes. Historical tendencies don’t provide much optimism for a true bell cow; Whisenhunt’s RB1 accounted for just 17.6% of team XFP (ranked 6th-worst in the NFL heading into the 2019 season) from 2009 to 2018.

Ahead of the 2017 season, Scott Barrett noted that “his RB1s haven’t been very productive, ranking fifth-worst in fantasy points per game, seventh-worst in weighted opportunity per season, and implying a lack of fondness for a bell-cow running back, seventh-worst in weighted opportunity percentage.”

We all remember Austin Ekeler’s absurdly efficient 2019 season (19.6 FPG on 15.0 XFP/G) – where Whisenhunt stubbornly gave Melvin Gordon a better workload (15.3 XFP/G) despite Gordon ranking almost perfectly neutral in efficiency (15.6 FPG).

None of this suggests exciting, bell cow upside for the Memphis backfield. Whisenhunt seems to have a natural aversion to feeding his RB1, even when that player is outrageously efficient.

So, we are likely looking a committee here. The final question is what that committee will look like.

DeWayne McBride (a former Round 7 pick) and Deneric Prince (formerly of the Chiefs) feel like the favorites for RB1 snaps. McBride averaged a rather unimpressive 3.5 YPC on 40 preseason carries in 2023 and 2024 – but he did run for 1,713 yards in 11 games in his final college season. Prince isn’t too different; he averaged 3.9 YPC on 36 preseason carries over the last two years, and averaged 91.1 rushing YPG in his final season at Tulsa.

Update: McBride was cut, leaving Prince as the favorite for RB1 snaps in Week 1.

And we will see Jackson and Kibodi mix in as well. Jackson averaged 3.8 YPC on 19 attempts with Jacksonville during last year’s preseason, and he has the density (5’8”, 220 pounds) to steal goal-line carries if he ends up active on gameday. Kibodi isn’t too different statistically, logging 3.9 YPC across 18 career preseason carries and earning 60.8 rushing YPG during his final season at Louisiana.

We could spend more time discussing these players' historical and preseason stats, but that feels rather pointless when their fate is in the hands of the league’s most ambiguous coach (who likely wants a committee). I can’t provide any particularly firm takes, but Prince has the best chance at emerging as the lead back here.

Michigan Panthers

Michigan looks like another straightforward backfield, with Matthew Colburn (last year's RB10 by WO/G) and Nate McCrary returning from the 2024 team. Jaden Shirden joins the backfield as a 22-year-old rookie out of Monmouth after spending the 2024 offseason with the Carolina Panthers. And Toa Taua (another 2024 Panthers holdover) appears to be the most likely cut candidate after logging just 37 snaps (all in a meaningless Week 10 game) last season.

Update: Taua was cut.

Colburn has played with OC Marcel Bellefeuille since 2023, and while he’s always led Bellefeuille’s backfields, RB1 usage here seems to be capped at around ~65% of backfield-weighted opportunity. And that’s a significant headwind to there being a true bell cow in Michigan (last season’s 4th-most valuable fantasy backfield by WO/G).

Over Bellefeuille’s last two seasons, we have only seen his RB1 earn more than 65% of backfield-weighted opportunity once (in a game where both active RBs stayed healthy). Last year, after Wes Hills was ruled out for the season, Colburn averaged just 8.7 WO/G and 4.7 DraftKings FPG in his two games with McCrary.

Now, that’s not to say the RB1 here can’t pop for fantasy – Colburn and Hills combined for four games over 15.0 DraftKings points last year (the 3rd-most of any team) and collectively scored 44.4 DraftKings points in Week 5.

I fully expect Colburn to start the season as the lead back, commanding between 55% and 65% of backfield weighted opportunity on top of slightly above-average efficiency (7th-best by weighted opportunity differential last year).

The more interesting discussion is over this RB2 role. If either Shirden or McCrary stands out, they could force a true 50-50 committee or even usurp Colburn as the lead RB in Michigan.

McCrary’s offensive familiarity likely makes him the favorite for that role – along with his slightly larger, 6’0”, 215-pound frame. Last season, we saw the similarly-sized Wes Hills earn 66% of goal-line carries and 73% of red-zone carries. And that seemed to hold up after Hills was injured; McCrary earned 7 of 9 red zone carries in his two games with Colburn last year.

But I’m also very intrigued by Shirden. I’ve sat through a number of non-public virtual press conferences with Panthers coaches, and they’ve given nothing but praise to Shirden. On March 3rd, Panthers HC Mike Nolan noted that Shirden “showed a little bit today and got my attention” and followed that up on March 12, saying, “the back from Monmouth isn’t too shabby.”

Bellefuille also complimented Shirden (compliments directed toward specific players have been extremely rare for both coaches), noting on March 6th that Shirden was displaying great hustle and athleticism.

Those compliments are a great sign, but I wonder if Shirden could command goal-line carries given his smaller frame (5’8”, 195). That makes me think if Shirden was ever active, it might be at Colburn’s expense rather than McCrary’s (if we assume Michigan wants a larger back for red zone work).

It’s hard to see a ton of upside in any individual RB here with lead-back usage almost certainly capped at ~65%. If the price is right, I’m still excited to take chances on these backs in DFS – even if Michigan’s RB1 doesn’t have a great opportunity to crack the top-5 in terms of full-season DraftKings scoring.

San Antonio Brahmas

This was the single most valuable fantasy backfield in the UFL last year (22.3 WO/G) – both John Lovett and Anthony McFarland ranked in the top-3 in WO/G. McFarland and Lovett are slated to return in 2025, joined by former Giants practice squad member Jashaun Corbin out of Florida State.

And this makes for an easily projectable backfield. McFarland will soak up a handful of carries, plus the hyper-valuable (and often designed) backfield passing game work (finished 2nd among UFL RBs in targets last year). Lovett will earn the majority of carries – especially near the goal line – where he earned +44% more inside the five carries than any other UFL RB.

The issue is that these backs naturally cap each other’s upside. In their four regular-season games together, Lovett averaged 9.2 WO/G, and McFarland averaged 11.9 WO/G. For fantasy purposes, I’d generally aim to play McFarland in games we expect San Antonio to play from behind, and Lovett when we expect San Antonio to maintain a lead.

Of course, I need to acknowledge the massive efficiency gap here. McFarland was the most efficient RB in the UFL last year (+3.2 WO differential), while Lovett was the least efficient RB who earned double-digit WO/G (-2.2 WO differential).

Efficiency as extreme as what we saw from McFarland is incredibly rare. As I’ve already noted in this piece, hyper-efficiency is a proven precursor to an increase in volume. And that potential increase in volume has to be more likely after Lovett was tremendously inefficient in 2024.

While I still anticipate Lovett dominating near the goal line, I wouldn’t be shocked if McFarland saw a tangible bump on the 13.6 opportunities per game he averaged last year. If he could maintain last season’s efficiency and push for ~16 opportunities per game, we’d be looking at ~19.4 DraftKings FPG. Regardless, McFarland is a clear top-3 fantasy option for as long as he’s healthy.

We could see either of these backs emerge as a true bell cow in the event of an injury. Lovett averaged an 81% snap share and a truly incredible 21.9 WO/G in his four games without McFarland last year (would rank behind only 2023 Wes Hills as the 2nd-best workload in spring football history), while McFarland earned 18.8 WO and a 68% snap share in his lone game without Lovett. Unless this coaching staff develops serious trust in Jashaun Corbin, I’d treat either McFarland or Lovett as the clear RB1 in the UFL should the other miss time.

St. Louis Battlehawks

The Battlehawks return last season’s primary ball carrier in Jacob Saylors and special teams asset Kevon Latulas on top of a new addition – Jarveon Howard from Alcorn State.

While we haven’t learned much from training camp or offseason press conferences, it’s fair to anticipate Saylors leading the way while Howard and Latulas fight for RB2 duties.

Last year, St. Louis notably rotated their primary back early in the season – all of Wayne Gallman, Mateo Durant, and Saylors had games with at least 60% of backfield snaps in the first five weeks of the year.

But Saylors eventually emerged as the lead back – earning 15.5 WO/G from Week 4 until the end of the season (tied for the 3rd-best workload in spring football history). He finished the season as the league’s 4th-most efficient RB by weighted opportunity differential (+1.7) (Mateo Durant, interestingly, finished 3rd-best) and behind only Anthony McFarland in YFS per touch. A RB as efficient as Saylors should be expected to earn around the 67% of backfield snaps we saw in his final seven games last year.

That puts Saylors right there as the UFL’s premier bell cow. But I do worry we could see his usage take a notable hit relative to last season if Manny Wilkins starts at quarterback over Max Duggan.

About 39% of Saylors' regular season fantasy production came from receiving (he finished 3rd among UFL RBs in targets per game), but Wilkins targeted RBs just 15% of the time (11th-most among UFL QBs) compared to 19% for AJ McCarron (4th-most). While that on its own won’t lead to a dramatic dropoff in fantasy scoring, I’m generally worried about Wilkins' willingness to run the ball close to goal line. Wilkins averaged 1.0 inside the five carries per start last year, which would rank as the most-ever by a spring QB over a full season.

If Wilkins starts, avoids targeting RBs, and runs the ball near the goal line, it’s easy to see something like a ~10% dropoff in fantasy scoring for Saylors. Not to mention the broader risk of a less efficient offense with St. Louis going from a clear top-3 QB in McCarron to largely unknown talents in Wilkins or Duggan.

Still, Saylors’ usage is undeniably great, and I expect it to stay that way heading into 2025. He’s a clear top-3 fantasy RB in the UFL, while Latulas and Howard fight for backfield scraps here (the Battlehawks RB2 averaged just 6.2 WO/G last season).

Full-Season UFL RB Fantasy Rankings