Week 17 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, meaning Week 18 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 18 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.
Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 18 DFS:
Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos (VS. KC)
DraftKings: $6,400 (QB6) | FanDuel: $7,800 (QB7)
The Broncos need to win in Week 18 to secure a playoff spot, and they have a great chance to do so against a Kansas City team resting their starters. The game total here (38.5) doesn’t indicate much offensive upside for Denver, but I want exposure to an offense that will be doing everything they can to secure a win – especially against 2nd-string defenders.
Nix averages 21.5 DraftKings FPG since Week 8, which ranks 5th-best among slate-eligible QBs over the full season. His impressive play in the 2nd half of the year has led to the Broncos passing more; Denver’s +4.2% pass rate over expectation over that stretch ranks top-7 over the full year. We can nitpick the game environment, but it’s hard to be down on Nix when he’s a borderline lock for ~35 pass attempts against a backup defense in a must-win game.
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers (@ ATL)
DraftKings: $5,800 (QB13) | FanDuel: $6,900 (QB24)
Young has played the best football of his career over the last few weeks – going over 23.5 DraftKings points twice in his last 5 games. The Panthers don’t have any incentives beyond figuring out what they have in Young, but this is a great game to do so. Atlanta has struggled massively in defending the pass this season – ranking as the 5th-softest schedule-adjusted defense for opposing passers this year (+1.8 passing FPG). And with Carolina listed as 8.0-point underdogs here, Young should get plenty of opportunities to prove he’s (potentially) Carolina’s QB of the future. He’s a screaming value on FanDuel this week (along with teammate Adam Thielen).
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons (VS. CAR)
DraftKings: $8,500 (RB2) | FanDuel: $9,200 (RB2)
It doesn’t get much easier than this. Robinson earned 94% of backfield XFP and the highest snap share of his career (92%) in Week 17. It’s clear Atlanta is finally giving Robinson all the work he can handle, and I don’t expect that to change in a must-win game for the Falcons in Week 18.
And Carolina is the ideal matchup for Robinson – the Panthers rank as the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+5.7 FPG), allowing the league’s highest success rate (62%) on zone rushing concepts (which make up 77% of Robinson’s rush attempts). Combine the best possible matchup with a must-win game, and it’s safe to call this the best week of the year to play Robinson.
Ameer Abdullah, RB, Las Vegas Raiders (VS. LAC)
DraftKings: $5,100 (RB36) | FanDuel: $6,300 (RB24)
Abdullah is coming off the 3rd-best RB workload of the week by XFP (22.6). He earned 20 carries (his most in a game since 2017) and 83% of snaps inside the 10-yard line, demonstrating shockingly great TD equity for a RB who has primarily been relied on in the passing game.
The Week 18 matchup with the Chargers sets up well for Abdullah’s pass game role as the Raiders are listed as 5.5-point underdogs. And if he can push for the majority of backfield carries on top of his usual receiving role, there is no reason he should be priced as a low-end RB3 on DraftKings. Abdullah looks like arguably the best avenue to save salary at the RB position this week.
Michael Carter, RB, Arizona Cardinals (VS. SF)
DraftKings: $4,700 (RB48) | FanDuel: $5,800 (RB32)
Emari Demercado is on IR, Trey Benson has missed multiple games with an ankle injury, and James Conner left Week 17 early with a knee injury. With Arizona eliminated from the playoffs, there is no reason for the team to push any of their injured backs to play – which opens the door for a potential bell cow workload from Michael Carter.
Carter handled an 86% snap share, 55% route share, and 89% of backfield XFP after Conner left Week 17’s game with about 11 minutes remaining in the 2nd quarter. Assuming these injured RBs can’t suit up for Arizona, Carter will rank among the best RB values on the slate thanks to his dirt-cheap price tag (and the team’s lack of interest in playing DeeJay Dallas).
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (VS. NO)
DraftKings: $8,000 (WR2) | FanDuel: $8,900 (WR3)
Tampa Bay needs to win to secure the division, and Mike Evans is just 85 receiving yards away from his 11th consecutive 1,000-yard receiving season – a feat Baker Mayfield has noted he’d like to see Evans accomplish. This is the setup we look for in Week 18: a situation where both player and team incentives should lead to a massive fantasy performance. The best part? Marshon Lattimore is no longer on the Saints – so Evans should be able to do whatever he wants to this New Orleans secondary. The massive spread (Tampa Bay -14.0) could cap Evans’ upside, but we did see virtually every Buccaneers pass catcher have a great game in Week 17 despite a similarly massive game line. I’m still excited to play Evans in a game where he could tie Jerry Rice in the record book.
Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers (@ ATL)
DraftKings: $6,200 (WR14) | FanDuel: $6,400 (WR28)
The Panthers haven’t had anything to play for in several weeks, but that hasn’t stopped them from scoring fantasy points. Thielen averages 19.9 DraftKings FPG since Week 13, a mark that would rank 3rd-best among slate-eligible WRs over the full season. Carolina has been no stranger to negative game scripts over that stretch, and Week 18 should be no different, with the Panthers listed as 8.0-point underdogs. We know this passing offense flows through Thielen, and he draws a great matchup – Atlanta ranks as the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+4.4 FPG). This game is shaping up as the best offensive environment of the slate (47.5 total), which will make Thielen pop in projections across the industry.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Miami Dolphins (@ NYJ)
DraftKings: $5,800 (TE4) | FanDuel: $6,300 (TE5)
Tua Tagovialoa’s status in Week 18 is still up in the air, but Smith is set up for success regardless of who plays QB for Miami this week. Since Week 11, Smith has averaged 19.0 DraftKings FPG and 0.15 1D/RR – marks that would both rank top-6 among WRs over the full season, yet Smith is priced as the WR20 on the Week 18 main slate. The matchup is solid – New York has allowed the 7th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+2.6 FPG) to opposing TEs since Week 12. And even if Tyler Huntley ends up starting – his league-leading 31% TE target rate (since 2021) will only bolster Smith’s workload. He’s a great play in a must-win game for the Dolphins.
Chig Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans (VS. HOU)
DraftKings: $3,800 (TE14) | FanDuel: $5,400 (TE11)
Over the last three weeks, Okonkwo averages 16.2 XFP/G, 15.6 DraftKings FPG, and a 33% first-read target share. These are high-end WR2 numbers, but DFS pricing hasn’t come close to properly adjusting for Okonkwo’s new role with Mason Rudolph under center. Rudolph’s aDOT (7.5) is a full yard shorter than Will Levis’ aDOT (8.5), and that’s directly benefitted Okonkwo, who has seen his TPRR jump from 0.15 with Levis to 0.23 with Mason Rudolph. And while nothing on paper says Houston is a positive matchup for TEs, the Texans are locked into the 4 seed in the AFC – so Okonkwo should be fighting for targets against backups on the Texans defense.
