Deebo Samuel is now a Washington Commander.
After a year of trade speculation, the San Francisco 49ers are getting back a fifth-round pick in exchange for Samuel. The 29-year-old’s contract is the reason why 49ers GM John Lynch “only” netted a Day 3 selection.
Washington is on the hook for Samuel’s entire 2025 salary ($17.4M). It’s a hefty number. For reference, Samuel’s contract is 18th-most expensive among wide receivers, and he’s right in line with the Eagles’ A.J. Brown upcoming pay this season ($17.6M).
Jayden Daniels was a fantasy football league winner at his Round 9 ADP last year, and his mistake-free play just carried the Commanders to the NFC Championship game. Samuel’s addition is an obvious boost to Daniels’ already lofty outlook.
However, does Deebo’s acquisition merit a huge change in Washington’s team outlook? Samuel and top wideout Terry McLaurin are two very different receivers in the way that they win.
Let’s dig in.
Fantasy Fallout: Washington Commanders
Samuel is a yard after the catch monster – not a route technician. Dicing up cornerbacks in man coverage with slick releases has never been Deebo’s game. Instead, Samuel thrives off of big gains on short-area targets, and that’s exactly what the Commanders need.
Washington OC Kliff Kingsbury called a screen pass on 16.1% of Jayden Daniels’ attempts last season, which was the fourth-highest rate in the league. Only Chicago (17%), Miami (16.9%), and Tampa Bay (16.3%) called a screen more often than the Commanders.
A whopping 25.3% of Deebo’s targets last season were from designed plays, like screens. That was the fifth-highest rate among wide receivers, per Fantasy Points Data. In fact, at least 18% of Deebo’s targets have been off designed screens in four straight seasons.
Samuel should continue to get funneled all of the designed screens and short throws off of RPO that he can handle after he’s led all wide receivers in yards after the catch per reception in each of the last four seasons. It’s an incredibly impressive feat, although his margin as the league’s best player after the catch is shrinking.
Deebo Samuel is still a YAC monster
| Year | YAC/R | Rank |
| 2021 | 10.2 | 1st (by +1.6 YAC/R) |
| 2022 | 9.0 | 1st (by +1.9) |
| 2023 | 8.8 | 1st (by +0.5) |
| 2024 | 8.4 | 1st (by +0.4) |
From Fantasy Points Data
This is a perfect fit, purely from a football perspective.
What about the game within the game?
With Daniels under center, Terry McLaurin finally broke free from the mid-range WR3 purgatory last season, en route to his first career top-15 finish in fantasy points per game. McLaurin finished the fantasy football season with 15.8 FPG (WR15), seven-tenths behind WR14 Drake London (16.5).
While he had a very useful fantasy season, McLaurin did so with WR3-level volume. McLaurin’s 6.7 targets per game only ranked 34th among wide receivers. Daniels is just that good already.
According to Fantasy Points Data, 82.5% of McLaurin’s targets were charted as catchable last season, which was 19th-best among 85 qualified receivers. Adjusted for target depth, McLaurin received some of the best QB play in the league. It’s unquestionable. McLaurin’s 13.7-yard average depth of target was 15th-highest.
Between the deep and intermediate shots to McLaurin and the schemed/RPO targets to Samuel, we have a clear pathway where both wide receivers have differentiated skill sets and both can co-exist as WR2-3 in fantasy football.
Volume and the scoring upside that comes with volume are the name of our game, though. Will either McLaurin or Samuel get enough volume to really beat their average draft position in 2025?
Washington was already among the highest-volume offenses last season. The Commanders averaged 64.8 plays per game (fifth-most), and a whopping 62.1% of those plays were no-huddle (league-high). There is a good chance that the Commanders will lead the NFL in plays/game in 2025, especially if Daniels continues to ascend.
So, the quarterback and play volume are clearly there.
I just doubt that one of these two wideouts starts pushing for 8-9 targets per game. Washington’s targets will condense around their top two wideouts, but McLaurin’s share of those looks was only 21.7% last season. McLaurin has never been a massive target earner. He’s lived in between a 20% and 22% target share for four straight seasons.
There could be an unnamed third wideout here to draw targets, too. McLaurin is entering his age 30 season while Deebo might be a one-year rental – he’s a free agent after 2025. Washington certainly should entertain drafting a wide receiver in April. The Commanders have a clear need for depth with Zach Ertz, Dyami Brown, and Olamide Zaccheaus all hitting free agency in a few weeks.
McLaurin’s current average draft position in Underdog’s Pre-NFL Draft Best Ball contests is 26 overall (WR14), which will cool off considerably. I suspect a move into Round 4. Meanwhile, Deebo’s ADP (71 overall | WR38) will surely rise.
My primary concern is that, while the overall quarterback and play volume are amazing here, we’ve already seen McLaurin’s best career season while playing with significantly worse target competition. He finished as the WR15 last year — is there upside for more? Given that he’s always in the 20-22% target share range, there is not much more meat left on the bone for McLaurin.
Deebo is still a freight train after the catch, but he was a shell of himself to close out last season due to injuries. Deebo’s down year culminated in a career-low 53.7 scrimmage yards per game, and missing time is nothing new here. Samuel has missed multiple games due to injury in 5-of-6 seasons as a pro. Now on a new team, Samuel has a risky profile that I typically do not want to touch in Round 6-7 of fantasy drafts.
Just like last year, I want to draft as much Jayden Daniels (38 overall ADP) as I can get my hands on. Due to his rushing upside, we already know that he’ll be scoring 20+ FP with regularity. Daniels is a high floor, high ceiling player with extremely low risk in Round 4 of early best ball drafts.
Given how shaky the RB market is with this incoming rookie crop, it makes a ton of sense to use your Round 3-4 selections on these extremely high floor, high ceiling QBs – like Daniels, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson. On Underdog specifically, the drafts are 20 rounds right now. Your margin for error is greater at RB/WR, simply due to depth.
With this investment and hopefully some incoming help along the offensive line, Daniels has passed Josh Allen as the QB1 in dynasty. Remember when everyone was “worried” about his age? Daniels turns 25 in December. That’s four years younger than Allen, Lamar, and Joe Burrow.
Washington Commanders Fallout – TL;DR
Jayden Daniels’ stock just keeps rising.
Terry McLaurin remains the WR1, but I question the target earning upside for fantasy football.
Deebo Samuel is still a YAC monster, but there are clear risks in Round 6-7.
Bump down Austin Ekeler’s target projection slightly.
Will the Commanders add more target competition? They’re probably going to draft a receiver. Dyami Brown, Noah Brown, and Olamide Zaccheaus are all hitting free agency.
Fantasy Fallout: San Francisco 49ers
On the flipside, the 49ers pass catchers just got much easier to project this coming season. Everyone gets a small bump up in targets, just to varying degrees.
Without Deebo Samuel, the 49ers are replacing around 95 targets per season. Of which, about 25% are the “designed” plays like screens.
Christian McCaffrey is clearly the best-suited 49er to absorb most of the lost Deebo looks. CMC turns 29 years old this summer, and GM John Lynch said at the NFL Combine that he “thinks” that McCaffrey will be able to do portions of the 49ers OTA workouts in May. We’ll see. CMC suffered from bilateral Achilles’ tendonitis that caused him to miss Weeks 1-8, and then he tore the PCL ligament in his knee in Week 13 against Buffalo.
In his last full season in 2023, CMC was RB4 in targets per game (4.9) and 23% of those looks were off of screens. There is a world where McCaffrey shares some of the rushing load with Isaac Guerendo, but his passing down usage does not take a step back.
McCaffrey signed a two-year extension last summer that will keep him tied to San Francisco until next year.
George Kittle (15.8 PPR FPG) just nudged out Brock Bowers (15.5 FPG) as the TE1 on fantasy points per game basis last year. Kittle has finished as a top-3 scoring TE by FPG in six out of his last 7 seasons, dating back to 2018.
Historically, Kittle’s scoring has been negatively correlated with Deebo. This means that when Deebo does well, Kittle typically doesn’t, and vice versa.
Over the last three seasons, Kittle has played in seven games with Samuel out, in which he averages 18.9 FPG. In 24 contests with Samuel on the field, Kittle’s scoring dropped by -7.8 FPG.
Kittle deserves a big boost up from his current Round 5 ADP on Underdog (52 overall).
Finally, we get to these 49ers wideouts.
Brandon Aiyuk is coming off of reconstructive ACL/MCL surgery in November, requiring at least nine months of rehab until he’s cleared to practice. Aiyuk will be hard-pressed to make the field in Week 1 – just 10 months removed from surgery. I don’t expect Aiyuk’s ADP (75.5 overall) to climb yet, given that his price is almost entirely injury-related.
Between the Samuel trade and Aiyuk’s already questionable timeline to return, Jauan Jennings (72 overall ADP) is set to leap at least one round in early best ball drafts.
Jennings was three catches and 25 yards shy of an 80/1000 receiving season, and he would have gotten there, if he hadn’t been ejected for fighting before halftime of the Week 18 finale.
Once again, Aiyuk was at the top of Fantasy Points Data’s Average Separation Score metrics, but Jennings also fared pretty well:
Among the 113 qualified receivers with 200 or more routes on the season, Aiyuk ranked #1 in A.S.S. (0.25) and route Win Rate (30.5%) by significant margins.
Jennings was 13th-best by Win Rate (19.5%) and a decent 26th by A.S.S. (0.10).
Most importantly, Jennings broke out as the 49ers zone buster last year. These were typically the types of coverages that Samuel would crush in his prime. Jennings is a solid separator, has strong hands, and finds ways to find the soft spot in zone. Jennings’ 2.8 yards per route run vs. zone coverages tied Nico Collins and Justin Jefferson for sixth-best last season.
Meanwhile, second-year wideout Ricky Pearsall will benefit the most from simply getting onto the field more with Samuel gone.
Here’s a look at the 49ers’ Route Share Report last season. Note that Pearsall only had three games last season in which he ran a route on 70% or more of the team’s pass plays:
Until Aiyuk is back to full health, Jennings will remain the 49ers X-receiver and have a full-time role, no matter what. Ricky Pearsall will have to play more by default, but I suspect he will be the distant #5 target behind Kittle, Jennings, Aiyuk, and CMC.
Pearsall also might not see the field very often in 2-WR sets – it’ll be Aiyuk and Jennings – when all three receivers are healthy.
San Francisco 49ers Fallout – TL;DR
Christian McCaffrey is the best-suited 49er to absorb most of the lost Deebo looks. If he’s healthy for 15 games, CMC is a mid-range RB1 with 18-19 FPG at worst.
George Kittle is too cheap again.
Ricky Pearsall will have to play more by default, but there are still some big concerns. When they’re all healthy, Pearsall is the #5 target behind Kittle, Jennings, Aiyuk, and CMC. He will be off the field in 2-WR sets, in favor of Aiyuk and Jennings.
If you draft a 49er pass catcher in Rounds 5-7 of best ball drafts, earmark Brock Purdy in Round 9-10. This offense is so easy to stack.
