Welcome to the semifinals. This is your Week 16 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE; top-20 plays at RB; top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week plays at QB and TE for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit.
Good luck this week!
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (TNF)
The playoff scenarios in this game are simple. The Broncos can clinch an AFC Wild Card berth with a win. The Chargers have to win and get losses from the Colts and Dolphins to get into the playoffs this week. Cincinnati will be watching this game intently.
Start ‘Em
Courtland Sutton – Since his random Week 7 goose egg vs. New Orleans, when he didn’t get a single target, Sutton exploded over his last seven games for 45/601/4 receiving (19.0 PPR FPG – WR9). He’s earned eight or more targets in seven straight outings. Denver came out of their bye last week and funneled him 41% of the first-read targets. Sutton caught 4/53/1 receiving back in Week 6 vs. Los Angeles.
Ladd McConkey – Despite a lingering knee injury, McConkey was not at all limited last week. He ran a route on 84% of the Chargers pass plays, and turned his seven targets into 5/58/1 receiving. The Chargers are +8% more pass-heavy than expected over their last four games with McConkey, and the extra pass volume is fueling a late-season breakout for the shifty rookie. In this span, he’s been targeted a team-high 34 times and tallied up 26/381/1 receiving (17.5 PPR FPG – WR12). McConkey has aligned in the slot on 80% of his routes over his last four games, which means that he’ll largely avoid Broncos top CB Pat Surtain.
Bo Nix – Over the last 10 weeks, Nix is QB7 in FPG (19.9) – tied with Sam Darnold. The only problem as of late is that Nix isn’t running as near as much as he once was earlier in the season. In fact, he’s averaging just 10.3 rushing yards per game and has one TD on the ground over his last seven starts. Denver is doing a terrific job at keeping Nix clean – their 27% pressure rate allowed is tied for third-best.
Sit ‘Em
Justin Herbert – His fantasy football season has screeched to a halt over the last month with weekly scores of QB13 (vs. Baltimore), QB31 (vs. Atlanta), QB19 (vs. Kansas City), and QB18 (vs. Tampa Bay). Three of those 4 matchups were very easily exploitable. Herbert was the QB22 in fantasy scoring when these two teams met back in Week 6. Denver has allowed 19 or more FP to a quarterback in just 2-of-14 games (Lamar Jackson and Jameis Winston). The Chargers passing volume should remain solid. Denver is tough to run on, and Los Angeles was the second-most pass-heavy team in Week 15 with a +13.4% pass rate over expectation.
Quentin Johnston – Will see a ton of Broncos top CB Pat Surtain on Thursday.
Stone Smartt – Chargers TE Will Dissly will miss another game with a shoulder injury. However, Hayden Hurst was designated to return off of I.R. this week, and he will return on Thursday night. Hurst practiced fully on Tuesday-Wednesday. Smartt tallied 5/50 receiving while running a route on a season-high 57% of the pass plays last week.
Javonte Williams and Audric Estime – McLaughlin (7/23 rushing), Williams (6/15), and Estime (5/13) each received five handoffs in Week 15 out of their bye. Jaleel McLaughlin is out this week with a quad injury, which will condense the touches to Williams and Estime this week. Don’t be tempted. Continue to avoid this awful committee.
Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal – Speaking of awful committees, avoid the Chargers RBs again for the fourth straight week. The Broncos are allowing just 3.5 YPC over the last 10 weeks, which is third-fewest in this span. J.K. Dobbins will be eligible to return off of injured reserve in Week 17.
Josh Palmer
Devaughn Vele
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (Saturday | 1p ET)
The Texans and Chiefs have already clinched their AFC playoff spots. Kansas City needs a win and Buffalo loss to lock down the #1 seed again, but that seems highly unlikely. The Bills are 2 TD home favorites over the Patriots. The Texans are pretty much sealed as the #4 seed. Houston could jump up as high as the #3 seed and leap Pittsburgh, but they’ll need to beat Kansas City and Baltimore in Weeks 16-17 to do so.
Must Start
Joe Mixon – In the 10 games that he’s started and finished, Mixon is averaging 20.8 carries and 88.5 rushing yards per start. He’s piled up 12 TDs. And, he’s consistently involved as a receiver. Mixon has at least 2 receptions in 9-of-10 games. Add it all up… and he’s the RB2 in fantasy football (21.5 PPR FPG), just behind Saquon Barkley (22.2 FPG). We’ll need all of the volume that we can get because this is a tough matchup as +3 point road underdogs in Kansas City. The Chiefs have allowed just 3.4 YPC and a 38% success rate (second-fewest) when facing zone-blocking this season. 65% of Mixon’s carries are zone-blocking runs.
Nico Collins – In his last 16 games with C.J. Stroud dating back to last season, Collins has racked up 105 receptions for 1,648 yards and 10 TDs on 144 targets. That’s 20.6 PPR points per game. Collins is a baller, no matter the coverage. He’s WR3 in yards per route run (2.84) vs. two-high safety coverages and WR3 in efficiency against single-high looks (3.68 YPRR).
Start ‘Em
Travis Kelce – Unless he scores two TD in his next 3 outings, this will easily be a career-low in TDs for Kelce. He’s scored just twice through 14 games. His 50.6 yards per game are also a career-low. You have no other choice but to keep playing him as a mid-range TE1.
Stream ‘Em
Dalton Schultz – I have not written up Schultz all season, and for good reason. He’s terrible. Schultz is TE26 by FPG. However, I’m mildly interested in him this week only because this is the best possible matchup. Kansas City allows the most receptions and yards per game to tight ends. Backup TE Cade Stover (appendix) is out.
Sit ‘Em
DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy – These two wideouts continue to be TD-dependent WR4/FLEX options. Hopkins was held under 40 yards for the fourth time in his last 5 outings last week. Worthy finally got involved in the red-zone offense last week, and he quietly has four or more receptions in five straight games. Since Week 8, Hopkins is WR36 in fantasy points per game (12.3) and Worthy (10.0) is WR44. The Chiefs are using a full-blown rotation after Worthy at receiver. JuJu Smith-Schuster has run two more routes than Hopkins over the last two weeks. Marquise Brown (shoulder) is practicing in full, and he’s trending towards a season debut on Saturday.
Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt – Once again, this Chiefs backfield was split in Week 15. Pacheco didn’t get a bump in his role, whatsoever. Kareem Hunt and Pacheco each played on 37% of the snaps vs. Cleveland, and each RB got 13 handoffs. Hunt was slightly more effective (45 yards) than Pacheco (32 yards). This has turned into a nightmare.
Patrick Mahomes – Will try to play with a high ankle sprain. This has been a second straight disappointing fantasy football season for Mahomes. He’s finished as a top-10 weekly scorer among quarterbacks just seven times in his last 32 games (21.8%). For reference, that’s as many top-10 scoring weeks as Trevor Lawrence (7) over the past two seasons. Lawrence has appeared in six fewer games (26.9% top-10 rate in fantasy).
C.J. Stroud – It has been a season to forget for Stroud. He hasn’t finished as a top-10 scoring QB in weekly output since Week 5. Essentially, Stroud has been completely unusable for the entire year. Stroud has sunk to QB26 by fantasy points per game (14.7). His TD% (3.7), YPA (7.1), and sack rate (9%) have all fallen off compared to his rookie season (4.6% TD | 8.2 YPA | 7.1% sack). The Texans' offensive line isn’t very good, but Stroud is also not doing his protection many favors by holding the ball for 2.76 seconds per throw (sixth-slowest). Stroud’s 72.6% catchable throw rate ranks 30th-of-43 QBs, and it’s one-tenth worse than Cooper Rush (72.7%).
Tank Dell – Has just two scoring weeks where he’s finished among the top-24 receivers in fantasy football this season.
Dalton Schultz
John Metchie – Nursing a shoulder injury.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Saturday | 4:30p ET)
The Steelers have already clinched their AFC playoff berth, and they’ll take the AFC North with an upset. Baltimore is a -6 favorite. If the Ravens win on Saturday, they’ll clinch a playoff berth and have a good chance to win the division with two games left to play. The Ravens' remaining schedule (at Texans, vs. Browns) is easier than the Steelers' (vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals).
Must Start
Lamar Jackson
Derrick Henry – After scoring a TD in 11 straight games to start his season – 15 scores in total – Henry hasn’t hit paydirt since Week 12 vs. Pittsburgh. The King wasn’t needed last week. His 46% snap rate in Week 15 tied a season-low. This game should be closer. I’m keeping Henry as a Must Start RB1. Pittsburgh is getting waxed for a league-high 5.48 YPC off of zone-blocking concepts over the last 10 weeks. Henry leads all RBs in YPC (6.15) when the Ravens use zone run blocking.
Start ‘Em
Mark Andrews – After back-to-back games with 0 catches in Weeks 3-4, Andrews has come to life with 39/449/8 receiving (13.2 PPR FPG – TE5) over his last 10 outings. He’s making the most of low volume (4.4 targets per game – TE17) thanks to a league-best connection with Lamar Jackson. 91% of his targets have been charted as catchable since he rejoined the offense in Week 5, which is third-best among TE behind Pat Freiermuth (94% catchable target rate) and George Kittle (92%). And more good news – Andrews’ 77% route participation in Week 15 marked the second-highest rate of his season.
FLEX Plays
Zay Flowers – Tied with Khalil Shakir as the WR29 by fantasy points per game (13.3). Flowers led the Ravens in targets (7) last week, but was held in check for 6/53 receiving. Pittsburgh plays a league-high 67% single-high safety coverage, and they didn’t deviate from their usual defensive gameplan in Week 12 when these two sides met. The Steelers deployed Cover-3 (41%) and Cover-1 man (28%) on 72% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks. The Ravens move Flowers around so much that he’ll avoid Steelers top cover man Joey Porter on the majority of his routes. Flowers is crushing single-high coverages to the tune of 2.85 yards per route run (WR13) on a 28% target share (WR11). By comparison, Flowers’ volume (21% TS – WR22) and efficiency (1.53 YPRR – WR39) has fallen off vs. two-high safety coverages.
Najee Harris – Once again, Harris projects like a lower end FLEX. This is his second straight brutal matchup. Baltimore is allowing just 3.44 YPC (second-fewest) over the last 10 weeks.
Stream ‘Em
Pat Freiermuth – Over the last two weeks, Freiermuth leads the Steelers in targets (8) for 6/70/2 receiving. His 81% route involvement last week was the third-highest rate of his season.
Sit ‘Em
George Pickens – Has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury. He’s set to miss another. Pickens hasn’t practiced yet this week.
Rashod Bateman – Questionable to play (foot). He will see coverage from Steelers CB Joey Porter on Saturday. Bateman was held to 2/30 receiving on five targets vs. Pittsburgh in Week 11. Ravens secondary receiver Nelson Agholor (concussion) is also questionable.
Russell Wilson – SuperFlex only.
Calvin Austin – Led the Steelers in routes (92% participation) and receiving (5/65) last week without Pickens. The Ravens are no longer a sieve secondary. Over the last eight weeks, they’ve been a neutral matchup by schedule adjusted FPG allowed to receivers (20th).
Isaiah Likely – All of the way back in Week 1, Likely was targeted 12 times for an outlier 9/111/1 receiving. Since then, he’s averaging 3.1 targets and 24.2 receiving yards per game with 3 TDs across 12 outings.
Justice Hill
Jaylen Warren
Van Jefferson and Mike Williams
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons need a win to stay alive in the NFC South race. Despite beating them twice this season, Atlanta (7-7) finds itself half of a game back from Tampa Bay (8-6). The Falcons are -8.5 favorites over the Giants. Their playoff lives will likely be determined next week at Washington.
Must Start
Bijan Robinson – Over their last three games since the bye week, Atlanta is the third-most run-heavy team (-10.6% PROE). As a result, Robinson has piled up 26, 22, and 22 carries in his last three starts (319 rushing yards, 2 TD). This game calls for another run-heavy attack with their rookie QB making his debut. The Giants are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (138.6) and a league-high 7.2% explosive run rate over the last 10 weeks.
Start ‘Em
Malik Nabers – He finally scored again! Nabers reeled in his first TD grab since Week 3 last week. As always, Nabers remains a volume-based WR2. He’s earned at least 27% of the Giants targets in 10-of-12 games. He’ll need all of the looks that he can get this week. Drew Lock has targeted Nabers 25 times this season — but this duo has just 13/148 receiving as a result. This is an amazing matchup. Over the last eight weeks, the Falcons have allowed a league-high +7.8 schedule-adjusted FPG above average to receivers.
Drake London – WR20 in FPG (15.1). The Falcons couldn’t have gotten much worse QB play from Cousins as of late, and this offense was already trending run-heavy. Not much will change in terms of game planning this week. I’m expecting Penix to provide a spark for the Falcons' dormant deep passing attack. In his last three starts, Cousins’ 16% turnover-worthy throw rate on passes of 10+ air yards led all QBs ahead of Drew Lock (15.4%). London remains a lower-end WR2.
FLEX Plays
Tyrone Tracy
Sit ‘Em
Darnell Mooney – Coming off of a zero. Mooney was uninvolved last week because Atlanta had no faith in their QB. The Falcons should lean very run-heavy in Week 16. Over the last eight weeks, the Giants have been a neutral matchup by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to receivers (18th).
Michael Penix – With the NFC South title up for grabs, the Falcons are making the change to Penix. It had to be done. We called for Cousins’ benching last week on Matchup Points. Kirk Cousins owns a 9:14 TD-to-INT ratio in his other 12 starts not against the Buccaneers this season. Penix is in play for SuperFlex leagues as a lower-end QB2.
Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton
Ray Ray McCloud
Kyle Pitts
Devin Singletary
Drew Lock – The Giants are going back to Lock, per HC Brian Daboll. Tommy DeVito has a concussion.
Stash ‘Em
Tyler Allgeier
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are holding on to a 5% chance at making the playoffs. They’ll need to win out and have the Broncos and/or Chargers collapse in Weeks 17-18. Cincinnati plays at home vs. Denver in Week 17.
Must Start
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins – In their nine games together, Chase has exploded for 65/955/11 receiving (25.4 PPR FPG – WR1). Chase’s only legitimate competition for WR1 is Puka Nacua (23.7 FPG in seven full games). Meanwhile, Higgins has piled up 50/669/6 receiving (17.0 PPR FPG – WR10). This is an unbelievable spot for Chase. In nine outings with Higgins on the field, Chase is averaging an unreal 0.87 fantasy points per route run vs. single-high safety coverages. This would easily lead all receivers over Puka Nacua (0.80 FP/RR vs. 1-hi). Cleveland deploys the second-most single-high safety coverage at 65%.
Joe Burrow – In nine games with his top two wideouts, Burrow is putting up a league-winning 23.2 FPG. For reference, this makes Burrow the QB3 in fantasy, behind only Lamar Jackson (26.1) and Josh Allen (25.1). The Bengals are the most pass-heavy team (+10.3% above expected) in a landslide over the Chiefs (+6.3%). Burrow leads all QBs in attempts, TDs, and yards.
Chase Brown – Since the Bengals lost Zack Moss (neck) for the season, Brown has put up an unreal 23.2 PPR FPG as the bell cow. In fact, the only RB with more PPR points per game since Week 9 is Saquon Barkley (23.7).
David Njoku – This would be an amazing spot if Njoku were healthy. At worst, he’s a low end TE1. Cincinnati allows a league-high 6.5 receptions and 67.1 yards per game (third-most) to tight ends.
FLEX Plays
Jerry Jeudy – The change to Dorian Thompson-Robinson is warranted, given that Jameis Winston’s play style hasn’t changed a bit. The volume hack is over. Winston was averaging a league-high 40.6 attempts per game. Jeudy has been an absolute beast with the volume and sometimes competent quarterback play that Winston has provided. The only receivers that are averaging more PPR FPG since Week 8 are Ja’Marr Chase (28.2) and Mike Evans (21.4). Jeudy is WR3 by FPG (21.1) and he’s turned his consistent volume (9.7 targets per game – WR6) into a Chase-like 112.3 yards per game. I’m bumping him way down from a Must Start WR1 to a WR3 with DTR under center. Thompson-Robinson hasn’t topped 165 yards in any of his three career starts. Across 155 dropbacks in 2023-24, DTR owns a 1:7 TD-to-INT ratio and he’s averaging a league-low 3.7 YPA. Just 67% of Thompson-Robinson’s career attempts have been charted as catchable. For reference, Drew Lock’s catchable throw rate this season is 66%. Anthony Richardson has a 63% catchable throw rate.
Jerome Ford – Unfortunately, the great Nick Chubb suffered a broken foot on Sunday. His season is over, and his career has to be in jeopardy at this point. It’s awful for such a talented player. Ford was the Browns lone bright spot offensively vs. Kansas City, ripping off a 62-yard TD for their only score. Cleveland will bring back D’Onta Foreman up to the active roster in place of Chubb, and we’ll see more of Pierre Strong moving forward. Ford is a decent bet for 13-15 touches as a FLEX option in a pretty good matchup vs. Bengals in the fantasy semifinals.
Sit ‘Em
Cedric Tillman – Has missed the last three games with a concussion.
Elijah Moore
Mike Gesicki – Has just 19 receptions for 185 scoreless yards (4.2 FPG) in nine games with Tee Higgins.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson – Stream the Bengals D/ST.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
The Lions are no sure thing for the #1 NFC seed, with the Eagles and Vikings also sitting at 12-2. This team is so well-coached that it can overachieve and overcome the injuries it has sustained. Detroit will be rooting hard for Philadelphia and Minnesota to lose in Weeks 16-17.
Must Start
Jahmyr Gibbs – One of the most consistent players in fantasy football, Gibbs now gets a chance to win some leagues as the Lions lone man left standing. David Montgomery suffered a season-ending knee injury last Sunday. This locks in Gibbs as a workhorse to close out Weeks 16-17 on the road in Chicago and San Francisco. Without Montgomery on the field, Sione Vaki and Craig Reynolds will mix in. Gibbs has finished as a top-24 scorer among RBs in 13-of-14 games – which is a remarkable rate. Chicago has allowed the third-most rushing yardage (127.6 per game) and 11 TDs over the last 10 weeks.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Start ‘Em
DJ Moore and Keenan Allen – The Bears targets have largely concentrated around these two. Over the last five weeks, Allen (29%) and Moore (26%) are well ahead of Odunze (21%) by target share. Allen has turned his 50 targets into 27/312/4 receiving (16.4 PPR FPG – WR12). Moore is getting so many layup receptions off of screens to bolster his fantasy floor. Moore has 36/360/2 receiving (18.0 FPG – WR7) since Week 11.
Jared Goff – After shredding the Bills for 494 yards and 5 TDs, Goff was the QB2 in scoring (41.3 FP) last week. That’s just two-tenths of an FP behind Josh Allen’s 41.5 FP performance. Buffalo just sat back in two-high coverage 61% of the time, and Goff crushed them. Unfortunately for the Lions, they just lost team leader and TD machine David Montgomery (knee) for the season. Fortunately for Goff and fantasy football, the Lions are more likely to lean on their passing game to close out the season. Not only is Montgomery’s loss a big part of their run game, their defense has now suffered multiple catastrophic injuries after losing more starters in DL Alim McNeill and CB Carlton Davis. It just means that the Lions are slightly more likely to play in higher-scoring games in Week 16-17 on the road in Chicago and San Francisco. This will be just the second and third time that Goff has played outdoors all year, with his only other game being in the rain in Green Bay.
Sam LaPorta – Has earned at least 17% of the Lions targets in six out of his last 7 games. As a result, LaPorta has rejoined the low-end TE1 radar. He has 29/332/4 receiving (12.3 PPR FPG – TE7) since Week 8.
FLEX Plays
Jameson Williams – As always, Williams is on the board as a WR3/FLEX. He’s WR36 by FPG (12.7). This is a spot for a deep bomb. Chicago is allowing a +9.9% completion rate over expectation on throws of 20+ air yards, which is fourth-highest.
Sit ‘Em
D’Andre Swift – Over the last four weeks, Swift has been held to 186 scoreless rushing yards on 57 carries (3.3 YPC). He has 2 or fewer receptions in 9-of-14 games this season. Roschon Johnson will return this week after missing the last two games with a concussion. Over their nine games together, Johnson (35% snap rate) has cut in just enough to be a problem for Swift (62% snaps). The main problem for Swift is at the goal line. This duo split carries inside-the-10 by a 12 to 10 margin, in favor of Swift.
Rome Odunze
Caleb Williams
Tim Patrick
Cole Kmet
Roschon Johnson
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Start ‘Em
Jonathan Taylor – Last week’s mind-breaking fumble at the goal-line cost his team dearly, and it cost fantasy football manager’s 8 would-be FP in the process (6 pts for TD, -2 for fumble). Brutal. In his eight games with Richardson as the starter, Taylor has minimal passing down involvement (12 targets, 7/73/1 receiving). It’s left him as more of a lower-end RB2 who’s forced to rely on touchdowns. The Titans allow a league-high 1.3 TDs per game to opposing running backs.
FLEX Plays
Tony Pollard – The Titans got drubbed last week by the Bengals, and Pollard (45%) played fewer snaps than Tyjae Spears (55%) for the first time all season. He’s missed a ton of time due to injuries this season, but Spears has routinely been a thorn in Pollard’s side in the passing game. In 10 games together, Spears has been more involved as a receiver (42% participation, 34 targets) than Pollard (34% participation, 27 targets). This leaves Pollard forced to rely on just early-down work and goal-line carries as a lower-end RB2 or FLEX for the fantasy semifinals.
Calvin Ridley – After appearing to turn a corner midseason, Ridley has just 12 receptions for 145 yards and 0 TD over his last three games. The Titans are going to draft a QB next April, and ride out this season with Mason Rudolph under center. Rudolph has targeted Ridley 38 times this season, connecting for 22/284 receiving. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3/FLEX, even though this is another pretty good matchup. The Colts allow the 10th-most receiving yards per game (110.1) to opposing outside receivers. Ridley was held without a catch on 8 “targets” from an injured Will Levis when these teams met back in Week 6.
Sit ‘Em
Michael Pittman – In nine starts with Richardson, Pittman has 37/409 receiving and 0 TD (8.5 PPR FPG).
Josh Downs – In six games with Richardson, Downs is seeing a pathetic 3.7 catchable targets per start. That’s WR58 overall. It’s a shame for a player of his caliber. For reference, Downs was seeing 8.2 CTGT/G in five starts with Flacco. That’d be third-most behind Nabers and Chase. Despite rarely seeing catchable volume, Downs is still averaging more yards per game (46.2) than Pittman (45.4) with Richardson under center.
Anthony Richardson – Has completed 50% or fewer of his passes in 8-of-9 full starts. He's been unusable for fantasy. He’s finished outside of the top-16 scoring QBs in 6-of-9 games. Richardson’s rushing is the only reason that he’s remotely viable in SuperFlex formats. He’s added 36/187/4 rushing over his last four starts.
Mason Rudolph – Stream the Colts D/ST. The Titans scored points on just 22% of their possessions in Rudolph’s three starts from Weeks 7-9, which was the league-low in this span.
Nick Westbrook – Dealing with an ankle injury. He didn’t practice on Wednesday.
Chig Okonkwo
Tyler Boyd – Dealing with a foot injury. He didn’t practice on Wednesday.
Stash ‘Em
Tyjae Spears
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Arizona’s path to the playoffs includes this must-win in Carolina. Week 17 on the road in Los Angeles will determine their postseason lives.
Must Start
James Conner – Fresh off of ripping the Patriots for 138 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs last week, Conner gets an ideal matchup to keep up the momentum. The Panthers are getting destroyed for an unbelievable 171.8 rushing yards per game over the last 10 weeks. That’s easily the league-high. Conner will have an amazing role on Sunday. Trey Benson (ankle) is questionable and the Cardinals placed Emari Demercado (back) on injured reserve last week.
Chuba Hubbard — Over the last two weeks, Hubbard has received a prime-CMC role, where he doesn’t leave the field unless he needs a sip of water for one play. Hubbard has been on the field for 94% and 97% of Carolina’s plays over the last two weeks.
Trey McBride – Even though he still hasn’t scored a receiving TD yet this season, McBride is TE3 by FPG (14.5). It’s a bummer that his quarterback hasn’t played better. With a few more touchdowns, McBride could push Bowers and Kittle as the TE1. He has earned at least 26% of the targets in four straight games since the bye week, piling up 40 receptions for 386 yards (on 51 targets) in the process. If there were ever a week for a touchdown… The Panthers have allowed a league-high 10 receiving TD to tight ends.
Start ‘Em
Kyler Murray – Once again, it was another disappointing day for Murray last week. The Cardinals cruised over the Patriots, and Murray was held to just 10.1 FP in the process. This has been a roller-coaster season. Murray has finished as a top-12 scoring QB seven times this year, but completely outside of the top-20 altogether in an equal amount of games. We should chase a spiked scoring week. The Panthers allow the sixth-most passing FPG (16.3). The Cardinals season is now on the line, so it’d be great to see Murray start scrambling more to move the offense. He’s averaging just 21 rushing yards per game over his last four starts since the bye week.
FLEX Plays
Adam Thielen – Carolina changed up their receiver rotation last week after Xavier Legette (hip) left injured. Thielen led the Panthers in routes and targets, but Jalen Coker was elevated to a starting role in his return. Coker was involved on 83% of the pass plays last week. Thielen still ran 72% of his routes lined up in the slot last week, and he has earned at least 22% of the Panthers' targets in three straight games. The Cardinals have limited opposing outside receivers to the second-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG below average (-7.5), but they’re a neutral matchup for slot receivers (-0.5 SA FPG allowed | 17th) over the last eight weeks.
Marvin Harrison – It has been a forgettable rookie season for the rookie. Harrison is WR43 by FPG (11.2). He has topped 60 or more yards receiving in 4-of-14 games. This is another amazing matchup. The Panthers are giving up the ninth-most receiving yards per game (110.3) to opposing outside receivers.
Sit ‘Em
Jalen Coker – In play as a desperation FLEX. Coker has earned at least 16% of the Panthers targets in three of his last 4 games, turning his 23 looks into 13/265/2 receiving. Coker split time outside and in the slot evenly last week (50% alignment in both spots).
Xavier Legette – Dealing with a hip injury.
David Moore
Michael Wilson
Bryce Young
Trey Benson
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
The Eagles can clinch the NFC East title with a win over the Commanders. Speaking of which, Washington is in the driver’s seat for the #7 seed. However, the Commanders need to win and for the Falcons and Seahawks to both lose to secure their spot ahead of Week 17.
Must Start
Jalen Hurts – Last week, Hurts dropped back to pass 35 times. It was easily the most passing volume for this offense since Week 3. He was excellent. Hurts diced the Steelers for 290 yards and 2 TDs while completing 78% of his throws. Hurts has scored at least 2 TDs – on the ground or through the air – in 11-of-14 starts.
Jayden Daniels – Over his last three games, Daniels has finished as fantasy’s QB1, QB2, and QB7 by scoring output. Now that he’s fully over a painful midseason ribs/chest injury, Daniels has rushed 27 times for an explosive 174 yards (6.4 YPC) and 2 TD over his last three starts. I’m pretty much ignoring the film and data from this matchup midseason. Daniels was clearly not healthy during the short week on TNF in Week 11 when these two teams met. His average depth of target in that game was 3 yards and his average time to throw was 2.2 seconds because he was trying to avoid hits in the pocket.
Saquon Barkley
Start ‘Em
A.J. Brown – That’s more like it. Brown exploded for 8/110/1 receiving last week with the Eagles’ pass rate getting out of the basement. Washington wasn’t trying to mess around and play man coverage against the Eagles back in Week 11. In that game, the Commanders deployed zone coverage on a season-high 88% of passing downs.
Terry McLaurin – The Commanders concentrated the targets around McLaurin (32% share) in Week 15 with Noah Brown (kidney) sidelined. Since he was held to one catch for 10 yards in Week 11 vs. Eagles, McLaurin has exploded for 20/248/5 receiving over his last three starts. He’ll seek his revenge with a healthy QB this time around.
Brian Robinson – As expected, we saw Robinson’s usage tick way up out of the Commanders bye week. He played on 73% of the snaps, which marked his second-highest involvement of the season. Robinson tied a season-high in carries (21/65 rushing) and he had 3 receptions for 22 yards last week. It was just the third time all season where B-Rob caught more than one pass in a game. This huge elevation in workload makes Robinson a stronger RB2. He’ll need all of the volume that he can get this week because the Eagles allow a league-low 3.4 YPC (last 10 weeks).
Zach Ertz – Passed through the league’s concussion protocol. He will play. As always, Ertz is in play as a lower end TE1. Over his last eight games, Ertz leads the Commanders in targets (19% share) by a hair over McLaurin (18%). Ertz has 35/341/4 receiving (11.9 PPR FPG – TE7) in this span.
FLEX Plays
DeVonta Smith – The Eagles big jump in pass rate culminated in a season-best game from Skinny Batman as he shredded the Steelers for 11/109/1 receiving. I remain skeptical that the Eagles will suddenly start passing way more. At the very least, the targets are heavily concentrated without Dallas Goedert (knee). Brown (45%) and Smith (42%) have accounted for a whopping 87% of the first-read targets over the last two weeks.
Sit ‘Em
Grant Calcaterra
Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets
Despite starting 1-4, the Rams control the NFC West. They’re in the lead with 3 games left to play. Los Angeles just needs to survive in New York. If they win, the Rams will control their own destiny at home in Weeks 17-18 vs. Cardinals and Seahawks.
Must Start
Puka Nacua – In his seven full games this season, Nacua has piled up 56/759/3 receiving (22.8 FPG). For reference, this would make him WR2 by a considerable margin in fantasy points per game behind Ja’Marr Chase (24.0 FPG). Nacua’s 43% first-read target share in his seven healthy games would be WR1 over Malik Nabers (42%) this season.
Davante Adams – Delivered a classic 9/198/2 hammer vs. Jacksonville, winning fantasy weeks in the process. The Rodgers-to-Adams buddy connection continues to be in full swing. Adams has earned 11 or more targets in 5 of his last 6 games.
Kyren Williams – Williams has played at least 79% of the Rams snaps in 13-of-14 games. He’s just a TD machine with 29 total TDs across his 26 starts dating back to last year.
Start ‘Em
Garrett Wilson – In their eight games together, Adams (9.5) holds the slight lead in targets per game over Wilson (8.4 T/G). As a result, Wilson is more of a WR2 in fantasy. He has 43/534/3 receiving (14.6 PPR FPG – WR23) since Week 7. Unlike the matchup with the Jaguars last week, the Rams play very little man-to-man coverage. Los Angeles runs zones on 74% of their opponents’ dropbacks. However, the Rams have been a sieve for efficiency to boundary receivers, allowing 2.25 yards per route run. That’s tied with the Jaguars for second-most.
Cooper Kupp – If you survived last week’s disaster, then you’re at least rewarded with a good matchup. Kupp was shut down by the 49ers league-best coverage unit vs. slot receivers. It’s a polar opposite matchup here. The Jets have been cleaned out for +4.0 schedule-adjusted FPG above average over the last eight weeks. That’s sixth-most. Kupp has 34/406/5 receiving (14.9 FPG – WR21) in seven full games with Nacua.
FLEX Plays
Breece Hall – Somewhat surprisingly, Hall was able to play through a knee injury on Sunday. It’s the same leg that he suffered the ACL tear in 2022. Hall was not close to full-go vs. Jacksonville. He needed the Jets layup, go-ahead TD at the end of the game to salvage an ugly day (11 touches, 51 scrimmage yards, TD). The Jets went with a split backfield as rookie Isaiah Davis (39% of snaps) mixed in fairly heavily. Braelon Allen (19% of snaps) only got two carries. Allen is nursing a back injury. Hall was only healthy enough to play on 50% of the snaps. He’s a back-end FLEX option to close out the fantasy season.
Stream ‘Em
Matthew Stafford – Since Week 8, Stafford is QB14 by FPG (18.4) and QB7 by yards per game (258.9). This is a lean week at quarterbacks, which has left us thin of truly great streaming choices. I’m back in here. Everyone has finally come around to the fact that the Jets secondary stinks, but that has been the case since midseason. Over the last eight weeks, New York allows the seventh-most schedule-adjusted passing FPG above average (+2.1).
Aaron Rodgers – Since acquiring Davante Adams, the Jets are the fourth-most pass-heavy offense (+5.6% pass rate over expectation). This trails only the Bengals, Chiefs, and Bills in this span. Rodgers has not set the world on fire by any means despite the great volume – he’s QB18 in FPG (17.1) and QB16 in yards per game (233.5) since Week 7. However, he’s definitely in play as a streamer for 1-QB leagues this week. We’re starving for good game environments this week. There isn’t a game with a total above 49 points in Week 16. Rams-Jets has the fifth-highest over/under (46.5). The Rams allow 7.8 yards per pass attempt (third-most).
Sit ‘Em
Allen Lazard
Tyler Conklin
Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell
Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis
Tyler Higbee – Set to make his season debut on Sunday.
Stash ‘Em
Blake Corum
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (4:05p ET)
The Seahawks are now fighting for their playoff lives as +3 home underdogs. Seattle has to win-out to give themselves a chance at the NFC West crown in Week 18 at Los Angeles.
Must Start
Justin Jefferson – Seattle has ramped up their two-high safety coverage exponentially as of late. They’ve run 2-high safeties on at least 56% of their opponents' dropbacks in five straight games. Jefferson’s efficiency drops when he’s faced two-high coverages (2.06 yards per route run) compared to single-high looks (3.46 YPRR).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Since Week 8, JSN is WR5 in fantasy points per game (20.2 PPR). His 36% target share last week tied a season-high.
Start ‘Em
Aaron Jones – As always, Jones is among the best RB2 plays on the slate. Across his 13 full starts, Jones is RB16 in fantasy points per game (15.5 PPR). He’s bounced back for 190 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs across his last two starts, and Jones is poised for another good game here. Seattle is allowing the third-most YPC (4.6) over the last 10 weeks.
Jordan Addison – He has become way more consistently involved as of late with at least 19% of the targets in five straight games, culminating in a stellar 30/473/5 receiving (21.5 PPR FPG). Addison has six or more targets in every game in this span after hitting that mark just once in seven contests between Weeks 1-10. Over their seven games together, Jefferson (28%) leads the way in first-read target share, followed closely by Addison (26%). Hockenson (18% FR share) is a distant secondary option.
Sam Darnold – Across his 14 starts, Darnold is QB7 by yards per game (252.1), he’s QB3 by TD% (6.8), and QB8 by FPG (19.1). Nothing about this matchup is overly exciting. Over the last eight weeks, the Seahawks are 20th in schedule adjusted FPG allowed to passers.
FLEX Plays
D.K. Metcalf – If he were 100% healthy, then Metcalf would be a no-brainer Must Start. However, I remain convinced that he’s still feeling the effects of a knee injury that cost him two games in Weeks 8-9. Over his last five games since the bye week, Metcalf has 22/272 receiving without a TD (9.8 FPG). Before the injury in Weeks 1-7, Metcalf was looking like a borderline WR1 with 35/568/3 receiving (15.4 FPG). This is an unbelievable matchup. The Vikings allow a league-high 127.4 yards per game to opposing outside receivers.
Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet – Both of the Seahawks RBs are dealing with injuries. Walker hasn’t practiced in three weeks (calf). Charbonnet missed Wednesday with an oblique issue. Obviously, if one of these 2 starts without the other, then that RB is Must Play. For now, we’re projecting the Seahawks to have both of their running backs on Sunday. Even if Walker is good to go, Charbonnet is playing way too well to be sent to the bench. This is likely a committee if both backs are able to play.
Sit ‘Em
T.J. Hockenson – Once again, I remain lower on Hockenson relative to consensus. This role is just mid. Since Week 9, Hockenson is averaging 5.7 targets per game. That’s tied with Hunter Henry for 10th-most. By fantasy points per game, Hockenson (9.6) is merely the TE16.
Geno Smith – Despite suffering a knee injury last week, Smith is apparently good to go for Week 16. He returned to full practice on Wednesday, and he isn’t even on the injury report. You can’t play him outside of SuperFlex formats.
Noah Fant
Tyler Lockett
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders (4:25p ET)
Must Start
Brock Bowers – It has been a lean two weeks for Bowers (6/84 receiving). At the very least, we’re going to get Aidan O’Connell back under center this week. O’Connell is off of the injury report. Bowers leads the Raiders in targets (34) over Jakobi Meyers (25) on O’Connell’s 136 pass attempts this season. Bowers’ route participation hit a season-high 96% last week.
Brian Thomas – The Jaguars rookie phenom shredded the Jets for 10/105/2 receiving in a highly impressive blowup game. Thomas had already emerged as a strong fantasy WR2, but he’s making a case for WR1 status in his final two games vs. the Raiders and Titans. Neither of those secondaries have the cornerback talent to run with Thomas. The rookie wideout has earned 10 or more targets in three straight games since Jacksonville’s bye week, turning those looks into an electric 22/267/3 receiving (22.6 PPR FPG). I’m calling it now – Thomas will be drafted near the Round 1-2 turn of 2025 drafts.
Start ‘Em
Jakobi Meyers – In nine starts without Davante Adams on the field, Meyers has turned his 84 targets into 57/650/1 receiving (14.4 PPR FPG – WR27). By targets per game (9.3), Meyers ranks WR8 in this span. He’s among the best WR2 plays on this slate in an ideal matchup.
Stream ‘Em
Brenton Strange – Once again, Strange is the top streaming option on the slate. As of Wednesday morning, he’s available in 78% of Yahoo! leagues. Strange was spammed by short-area targets last week, hoovering 11-of-12 for 73 yards. This is the old Engram role. Across five starts this season, Strange has consistently earned targets, and he has 23/193/2 receiving (10.9 PPR FPG – TE8). This is an amazing matchup. The Raiders allow +5.0 schedule-adjusted FPG above average to tight ends over the last eight weeks (second-most).
Sit ‘Em
Alexander Mattison – The Raiders placed Sincere McCormick (ankle) on I.R., ending his season. We’re down to Mattison and Ameer Abdullah alone in the backfield. I just can’t get there. Mattison is averaging a career-low 3.3 YPC. Abdullah will cut in on passing downs. He’s been involved on at least 33% of the Raiders passing plays in six straight games.
Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby – For the 112th time this season, the Jaguars backfield flipped again last week. Etienne (14/65 rushing) took three more handoffs than Bigsby (11/42). Continue to avoid this committee.
Mac Jones
Aidan O’Connell
Parker Washington
Tre Tucker
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (4:25p ET)
The Dolphins are both holding onto very slim playoff chances. Miami will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss. San Francisco has essentially already been eliminated in the NFC after their loss in last Thursday’s slopfest vs. Los Angeles.
Must Start
De’Von Achane – Even if he’s held in check again on the ground, it won’t matter. Achane is essentially a WR2 in PPR leagues. In nine games with Tua starting, Achane has tallied up 54/361/5 receiving (13.3 PPR FPG ~WR31). Miami can’t run the ball effectively whatsoever with injuries at the tackle spots really slowing them down. LT Terron Armstead (knee) is in danger of missing another game, while RT Austin Jackson’s (I.R.) replacement Kendall Lamm (back) is also hurt.
George Kittle – Was the lone 49ers player who didn’t completely fail last week vs. Rams (4/61 receiving). Over the last eight weeks, the Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most schedule-adjusted FPG above average (+3.8).
Jonnu Smith – Has finished as a top-8 scoring TE in five straight games. Smith is TE4 by FPG (16.3) since Week 5, which is just marginally behind Bowers (16.9) and Kittle (16.8) in this span. This is not an easy matchup. The 49ers are erasing tight ends to 35.1 yards per game (league-low), thanks in large part to LB Fred Warner.
Start ‘Em
Tyreek Hill – Miami’s targets are likely to settle around Hill, Achane, and Smith this week. Jaylen Waddle is extremely questionable with a knee injury. In his nine full games with Tua under center, Hill has turned his team-high 72 targets into 50/641/5 receiving (16.2 PPR FPG – WR15).
Jauan Jennings – Has 45/576/6 receiving (19.8 FPG) in seven starts where he’s played at least 70% of the snaps with Purdy under center. Jennings has been a stud this season, but this is a very difficult spot here. We think that he’ll see shadow coverage from Dolphins top CB Jalen Ramsey. It’s a concern. Ramsey is allowing just 0.18 FP per route run in his coverage (10th-fewest). Jennings is more of a WR2/FLEX this week.
Brock Purdy – Absolutely melted down last week with the season on the line. Purdy completed just 14-of-31 passes for 142 scoreless yards vs. Rams. This offense really missed his second-reaction scrambles to move the chains last week. Purdy ran once for 3 yards in Week 15. He projects as a lower end QB1 here. This is not a good week for quarterbacks. At the very least, Purdy’s passing volume should be solid. The 49ers are down to their fourth-string RB Patrick Taylor on Sunday.
Tua Tagovailoa – Speaking of meltdowns, Tua heaved 3 INTs in last week’s loss to Houston. After four straight games where he finished as the QB10 or better in weekly scoring, it was an ugly QB26 scoring performance for Tua in Week 15. At the very least, the passing volume should remain amazing here. Since Week 8, Miami is the third-most pass-heavy team by pass rate over expectation (+7.4%). The volume has propelled Tagovailoa to 273.1 yards per game on 37.9 passes per game over his last eight games. Both of those figures are fourth-most in this span.
FLEX Plays
Patrick Taylor – Rookie RB Isaac Guerendo is out with a hamstring injury. Taylor is a volume-based RB2/FLEX, at worst. They have nothing left in their backfield besides recent signing Israel Abanikanda. It’s really hard to get overly excited here. San Francisco’s run game has been stuck in the mud without LT Trent Williams (ankle). There is a little bit of appeal with the matchup if Williams can return. Miami has struggled to defend zone-blocking runs over the last 10 weeks (4.62 YPC allowed – eighth-most).
Sit ‘Em
Deebo Samuel – This is his fourth straight week on the sit list. Samuel is coming off an embarrassing game, and he’s clearly looking toward the offseason. This year is shaping up just like 2022 for Samuel. He’s dealt with multiple injuries (calf, wrist, oblique), and he was sick with pneumonia in Week 7. In his 12 games where he’s finished, Deebo has turned his 63 targets into 43/569/1 receiving while adding just 34/95/1 on the ground as a runner (10.0 FPG – WR44). He hasn’t gone over 40 scrimmage yards in five straight games.
Jaylen Waddle – Nursing a knee injury.
Raheem Mostert
Malik Washington
Ricky Pearsall
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (4:25p ET)
The Bills are huge Texans fans on Saturday. Buffalo (12-3) is Kansas City’s only loss this season, and they need the Chiefs to lose two of their remaining three games to take the #1 seed in the AFC. The Bills should take care of business twice: once against the Patriots (Weeks 16-18) and once at home against the Jets in Week 17.
Must Start
Josh Allen – Over his last eight games, Allen has exploded for a league-best 29 fantasy points per outing. This is the best that he’s ever played in his career, hands down. The Bills have handed him the keys. Buffalo (+9%) trails only Cincinnati in pass rate over expectation (+11%) since Week 7, if we exclude the Week 13 snow game vs. 49ers. Allen (279.4) trails only Burrow (299.9) in passing yards per game in this span. The playoffs are close, which means that Allen always runs more. In his last five outings, Allen has piled up 8.8 carries and 54.6 yards per game with 8 scores. Unreal.
Start ‘Em
James Cook – Remains atop the RB2 pile entering the semifinals. Despite the mediocre volume, Cook has made up for it with 14 all-purpose TDs in 13 starts attached to Josh Allen. New England has been cleaned out for 124.7 yards per game on the ground over the last 10 weeks. That’s fourth-most.
Khalil Shakir – Over his last eight games, Shakir has emerged as a strong PPR WR2 with 51/525/2 receiving (14.4 PPR FPG – WR24). He’s earned at least 18% of the targets in every contest in this span.
FLEX Plays
Rhamondre Stevenson – Hasn’t scored a TD in five straight games, but he has gone over 77 scrimmage yards 4 times in this span. New England will likely have to ditch their run game this week because they’re massive +14 underdogs.
Stream ‘Em
Drake Maye – Once again, I view Maye as a great streaming option in fantasy football. He’s by no means winning you weeks single-handedly, but Maye has been extremely usable for our game. Maye is averaging 18.7 fantasy points per start, which would make him QB9 this season. He’s available in 87% of Yahoo! leagues. The Patriots will have to throw all day long here, and the Bills are no longer a fearsome matchup. Over the last eight weeks, Buffalo has allowed the fifth-most schedule-adjusted passing FPG above average.
Hunter Henry – As always, Henry is on the board as a potential streaming option. At least he’s consistently involved. Henry has earned at least 17% of the Patriots targets in six out of his last 7 games. Buffalo just got hammered for 7/111 receiving by Sam LaPorta last week.
Sit ‘Em
Dalton Kincaid – It has been a second season to forget. Kincaid is TE18 by FPG (8.3). He was involved on just 54% of the pass plays in his return to the field last week.
Demario Douglas – Hasn’t finished higher than WR31 in PPR fantasy scoring in eight straight games. Douglas’ 54% route participation in Week 15 marked the second-lowest rate of his season. Kayshon Boutte remains the top Patriots wideout in routes, and they use a ton of 2-TE sets because their wideouts stink.
Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman – In a game where Josh Allen attempted 34 passes, Amari Cooper was a ghost for Buffalo. He ran just 15 routes and wasn’t targeted vs. Detroit. With Khalil Shakir as the top target and both Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid back on the field, Cooper was involved on just 41% of the pass plays. He’s droppable. Coleman (46% route share) played just a little bit more. At least he made a big splash play last week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (SNF)
The Buccaneers are riding hot after winning four-straight games, and they now control their own destiny with the Falcons falling apart. Despite losing both matchups vs. Falcons this year, Tampa Bay is 8-6 and Atlanta is 7-7. The Buccaneers will be in the driver’s seat with a victory in Jerry’s World. Tampa Bay plays at home in Weeks 17-18 vs. Panthers and Saints.
This game has the highest total on the board (48.5 over/under). In Week 16, only two games have a total of 48 or more points.
Must Start
CeeDee Lamb – After his disastrous performance on Thanksgiving (2/39 receiving on six targets), Lamb has exploded for 15/209/2 receiving on 20 targets in his last two games. He has win-your-league upside in this matchup. The Buccaneers allow the fifth-most yards per game (199.5) to opposing wideouts. Lamb earned a season-high 45% of the Cowboys targets last week.
Mike Evans – Fresh off of a 9/159/2 hammer. Evans needs 251 yards over the next three weeks for his 12th straight 1,000-yard season. Doable. This is an awesome spot for a huge chunk of that. The Cowboys put Trevon Diggs on I.R. last week.
Baker Mayfield – Has finished as a top-8 scoring QB in fantasy football in 9-of-11 games with Mike Evans. Other than Cowboys EDGE Micah Parsons, nothing about this matchup is scary. Dallas’ secondary allows the second-most yards per pass attempt (8.0).
Start ‘Em
Rico Dowdle – Has emerged as one of the most steady RB2 in fantasy football. Dowdle has played at least 64% of the Cowboys snaps in four straight games, and he’s turned his strong volume into 84/478/1 rushing (15.8 FPG ~RB15).
Bucky Irving – Despite playing through back/hip injuries, Irving still piled up 15/117 rushing on Sunday. Excluding Week 14 when he left early, this was his third straight game with at least 110 yards from scrimmage. Irving should be more involved this week. This is an amazing spot for him to get loose. Dallas is allowing the most yards before first contact per carry (2.5) over the last 10 weeks.
FLEX Plays
Rachaad White
Jalen McMillan – Over the last two weeks, the rookie has earned 21% and 22% of the targets from Mayfield, and McMillan has turned that strong volume into 9/143/3 receiving. He’s on the board as a lower end WR3/FLEX option for deeper leagues. He’d get a small bump in volume if Cade Otton were to miss.
Sit ‘Em
Cade Otton – Nursing a knee injury. Since Mike Evans returned to the field four weeks ago, Otton has been relegated to a distant third option in this passing attack. He has just 10/144 receiving (6.1 FPG) since Week 12.
Jake Ferguson – This is yet another amazing matchup for Ferguson, but he’s been a total ghost for much of this season. He’s finished outside of the top-20 scoring TE in six out of his last 8 games.
Cooper Rush – SuperFlex only. Rush has QB28, QB18, QB11, QB29, QB15, and QB8 scoring weeks across his six starts. This is an ideal matchup. The Buccaneers are giving up a league-high +4.9 schedule adjusted FPG above average to quarterbacks over the last eight weeks.
Sterling Shepard
Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, and Kavontae Turpin
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (MNF)
The Packers can clinch a spot in the NFC Wild Card with a win on Monday night. They’re -14.5 point favorites.
Must Start
Josh Jacobs – Over his last 10 games, Jacobs has exploded for 106.8 scrimmage yards per contest (RB5) and 13 TDs. He’s in an amazing position to keep winning you weeks. The Saints are awful in run defense. Over the last 10 weeks, only the Panthers (5.1) have allowed more yards per carry than the Saints (4.8).
Start ‘Em
Jordan Love – Over his last five games since the bye week, Love has finished as fantasy football’s QB11, QB17, QB13, QB16, and QB13 in weekly scoring. I realize that he’s been disappointing in a broad sense, but he remains in play as a lower-end option this week. Green Bay is implied to score 28.5 points this week, which is second-most behind Buffalo (29.5).
Kendre Miller – Alvin Kamara is very questionable to play. Saints ace report Nick Underhill said that all signs point to Kamara sitting on Monday night. Kamara suffered a groin/adductor injury on Sunday. He’s piled up a career-high 296 touches. If he’s unable to go, the Saints will only have Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams in the backfield. It’s quite possible that the Saints will use Miller as a workhorse and give him 15-18 touches on Monday night. Williams has barely played all season. I’d only play Miller as a lower end RB2/FLEX. His TD chances are just so thin. New Orleans’ implied team total is a slate-low 14 points.
Sit ‘Em
Alvin Kamara – Likely out with a groin/adductor injury.
Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs – In their last seven games together, the Packers receivers have split targets evenly. Doubs (5.4 targets/game) leads the way, followed closely by Watson (4.6 T/G) and Reed (4.3 T/G). You’re on your own if you need to chase one of these wideouts. None of them rank inside of the top-50 receivers in targets per game. In these seven games together, Doubs (12.1 PPR FPG) continues to be more productive than Reed (9.7 FPG) and Watson (8.8 FPG).
Tucker Kraft – In his last seven games with Doubs on the field, Kraft has been targeted on just 12% of his routes. That would rank 40th among 42 qualified TEs this season.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Juwan Johnson
Spencer Rattler – Packers are the top D/ST play on the slate, by a landslide.
