Just after missing the playoffs at 10-7, the Seattle Seahawks are tearing it down.
Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders in exchange for a third-round pick (#92 overall). As always, you should view these types of trades through the lens of the player’s contract first.
Seattle reportedly offered Smith a contract extension in the $35M per year range, which was refused by Smith’s side, and the trade was set in motion. The Athletic’s Dianna Russini reported that the Raiders will pay Smith between $40-$45M/year. He turns 35 years old in October.
Beyond the wide gap in contract negotiations, there are big differences in philosophy between these two coaching staffs. Yes, finding good starters like Geno is easier said than done. However, I can understand why HC Mike MacDonald wanted to experiment with a new QB in a new system.
Seattle’s new OC Klint Kubiak will lean on play-action, designed progressions within structure, and lots of motion. This is not to say that Geno Smith can’t run this style of offense, but it certainly doesn’t mesh with what Smith does at his best.
At his best, Smith is a traditional drop-back passer who can read and react to defenses at the line of scrimmage. He excels in shotgun and 3WR (11-personnel) sets, but Seattle is not looking to shift towards that.
New Orleans used 11-personnel (3-WR) on just 34% of their offensive snaps last season under Kubiak, which was 31st. Derek Carr was in shotgun on 67% of his pass dropbacks – which was the second-lowest rate, only ahead of Jared Goff (60%).
When Geno last worked with Raiders new HC Pete Carroll and QBs coach Greg Olson in 2023, Seattle was third in 11-personnel usage at 77%. Geno was in shotgun 85% of the time on pass plays.
Over the last three seasons, Geno Smith ranks 10th in YPA (7.4) and 9th in passing yards per game (249.5). He also leads all passers in completion rate over expectation (+5%).
For fantasy football, Geno is the QB15 by FPG (16.3) – just one-tenth of a point behind Trevor Lawrence (16.4) – since 2022.
Sacks are a problem for Geno, though. It’s why most EPA models don’t love him as much. Smith has taken a sack on 7.2% of his dropbacks over the last three years – which is in the top half of the league.
When he steps onto the field in Week 1, Geno will be the best passer for the Raiders since Rich Gannon in the early-2000s.
Fantasy Fallout: Las Vegas Raiders
For fantasy football purposes, I can’t imagine a better runout for Brock Bowers in the short- or long-term. The Raiders are making Smith their QB of the future.
Volume and quality of the QB are two of the main pillars for pass catchers in fantasy, and this new-look Raiders offense should lean heavily on Smith’s arm. Geno Smith ranks inside of the top-5 of catchable throw rate and inside of the top-10 of highly accurate throws in two out of the last 3 seasons:
Geno Smith’s underrated accuracy
| Year | Highly Accurate Throw Rate | Catchable Throw Rate | Completion over Expectation | Average depth of throw |
| 2024 | 53% (10th-of-39 QB) | 78% (5th) | +5.3% (4th) | 7.5 yards (28th) |
| 2023 | 48% (25th-of-33 QB) | 75% (22nd) | +1.1% (16th) | 7.9 yds (18th) |
| 2022 | 54% (8th-of-33 QB) | 79% (3rd) | +4% (5th) | 8.1 yds (15th) |
From Fantasy Points Data
Yeah, this is a huge upgrade here.
If we put Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew together and name them “Ghost of Raiders QB past” – they’d rank 27th in catchable throw rate (72%) and 26th in completion rate under expectation (-0.8%) last season. Yikes.
Las Vegas combined for 19 passing TDs last season – only the Patriots (18) and Giants (15) had fewer. The Raiders’ 2.9% TD rate was pitiful.
Geno’s TD rate (since 2022) is 4.3%.
I need to remind you that Brock Bowers just obliterated TE rookie records with 112/1194/5 receiving. George Kittle (15.8 PPR FPG) just nudged out Bowers (15.5 FPG) as the TE1 on fantasy points per game basis.
The Raiders will need to draft a receiver (or two), but there is absolutely nothing stopping Bowers from earning 140-150 targets again. Bowers finished #6 in the NFL in targets as a rookie with 153, one shy of Justin Jefferson (154).
This is after Bowers broke every SEC record set by a TE in career receiving yards per game (63.5), receptions per game (4.4), and total TDs scored (31) since 2000. In fact, Bowers led all TEs in career scrimmage yards per game (68.3) in this span.
Vegas is going to sling it. Over the last three years, Seattle ranked no worse than 8th in pass rate over expectation with Smith as the starter.
Bowers should be a mid-first round pick in all fantasy drafts moving forward, and I think there is a case for him at #3 overall in TE Premium leagues (after Barkley and Chase). We were all drafting Travis Kelce in the middle of the first round just a few years ago because of the scoring consistency he brought at an extremely scarce position.
Why not give Bowers the same treatment? He turns 23 years old in December.
Beyond veteran WR Jakobi Meyers, the Raiders target competition is very weak.
Speaking of which, Meyers provided highly underrated WR2-3 weekly production last season. He looks massively underpriced at his WR46 average draft position on Underdog.
In their 12 games together post-Davante Adams trade, Meyers earned slightly more targets (108 | 24.5% share) than Bowers (105 targets | 24% TS). The production was very close. Meyers turned those looks into 875 yards (1.97 YPRR) while Bowers had 833 yards (2.0 YPRR).
The Raiders have to add a rookie here, but Bowers’ targets are extremely safe. Even if Vegas selects a receiver early in the NFL Draft, Meyers is a technical value at his WR4-5 ADP.
Las Vegas Raiders Fallout – TL;DR
Once again, Geno Smith will be an underpriced QB2 for SuperFlex and best ball formats.
All in on Brock Bowers. He should be a mid-first round pick in all fantasy drafts moving forward, and I think there is a case for him at #3 overall in TE Premium leagues (after Barkley and Chase).
Even if Las Vegas selects a receiver early in the NFL Draft, Jakobi Meyers is a technical value at his WR4-5 ADP.
Fantasy Fallout: Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba when he shows up to workout in May for Seahawks’ OTAs:
There is a lot to be determined here after Seattle just dumped their entire offense. D.K. Metcalf is now a Steeler and Tyler Lockett is looking for a new home. The Seahawks are bound to draft a WR early, especially since they own five picks inside of the top-100 selections in April.
We didn’t have to wait long for Seattle to replace Geno, though.
Sam Darnold signed with Seattle on a three-year deal that’s worth up to $110M. The Seahawks are only paying Darnold $55M guaranteed, which is very light for a starter in this current QB market. This type of deal will not prohibit their front office from drafting a quarterback.
Darnold turns 28 in June, making him seven years younger than Geno Smith. And, he’ll be cheaper. Seattle clearly believes that they can create an offensive environment for Darnold to thrive.
I love this fit for Darnold. His new OC Klint Kubiak and former Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell run very similar systems built off of attacking the middle and deep parts of the field off of play-action. There will be a lot of similar route concepts and play terminology, which will make this transition for Darnold easier.
The Vikings used play-action for Darnold on 30% of his dropbacks (eighth-most) last year. With Derek Carr under center, New Orleans (29% play-action – 12th-most) wasn’t too far behind.
In 2024, Sam Darnold averaged 9.70 YPA on play action dropbacks (5th-most).
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) March 10, 2025
Derek Carr (9.87, 4th-most) fared similarly.
Darnold now links up with Carr's former OC Klint Kubiak in Seattle. pic.twitter.com/ze4o8A2w91
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s target volume is safe, but Seattle will run more in 2025. That will be a big shift in philosophy year over year. The Seahawks already have two runners capable of handling 18-20 carries per game – they just need help along the offensive line. Well, a lot of help. Seattle will be busy drafting linemen in this upcoming draft.
Under Kubiak in 2024, the Saints were 23rd in pass rate (57%) when the game was within a score. For comparison, the Seahawks were 4th with a 63% pass rate in one score situations.
Overall, this has been a great week for Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s fantasy outlook. He will be in my top-15 wide receivers for 2025, and he might even push for the top-12. At worst, Darnold is a competent starter that can deliver accurate throws when he’s kept clean.
Seattle’s offensive line and their ability to keep Darnold clean remains the big question, though. This has to be Seattle’s top priority and a big part of the reason why they went after draft capital in the Smith and Metcalf trades.
When he was kept clean last season, Darnold was rock solid. He was 10th-best in fantasy points per dropback (0.58) and tied for 13th in catchable throw rate (82%).
Geno Smith ranked only 22nd in FP/DB (0.46) when operating from a clean pocket, but he was highly accurate with a 85% catchable throw rate. Only Joe Burrow (88% catchable throw rate) was more accurate with clean protection than Geno last season.
Most importantly, JSN’s target competition will be a mix of TBD rookies and veteran options. Jake Bobo and Dareke Young are the only wideouts on the Seahawks current roster signed beyond 2025.
Seattle Seahawks Fallout – TL;DR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba should move into late-Round 2/early-Round 3 of best ball drafts.
Sam Darnold will have a ton of familiarity under new OC Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak.
I’m concerned about Seattle’s offensive line, but they can fix it quickly. They own five picks inside of the top-100 selections in the NFL Draft.
