The Seahawks finished their structural changes by trading star wideout D.K. Metcalf in exchange for the #52 overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. Pittsburgh and Seattle also swapped sixth- and seventh-round picks.
As always, it’s best to view these types of trades through the lens of the player’s contract first. Metcalf was up for a new deal, and Seattle wasn’t willing to pay the high market rate.
Pittsburgh just agreed to a four-year extension with $132M in new money, tying Metcalf to the Steelers until 2028. Metcalf is now in line with recent extensions from Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Brandon Aiyuk at $30M/year.
Before you scoff at the figures, just keep in mind that receivers of Metcalf’s caliber rarely become available.
Metcalf is one of 31 WRs to have over 6,000 career receiving yards before their 28th birthday. The other 30 WRs feature at least a dozen current/future Hall of Famers, and loads of fantasy WR1s.
D.K. Metcalf: Profiles as a WR2
| Year | Targets/G | TPRR | First Read Tgt% | YPRR | FPG (PPR) |
| 2021 | 7.5 (17th) | 0.26 (9th) | 31% (9th) | 1.98 (21st) | 14.4 (WR22) |
| 2022 | 8.2 (17th) | 0.25 (18th) | 30% (20th) | 1.90 (34th) | 13.5 (WR24) |
| 2023 | 7.1 (26th) | 0.23 (32nd) | 28% (24th) | 2.20 (22nd) | 14.1 (WR23) |
| 2024* | 7.2 (28th) | 0.21 (48th) | 27% (32nd) | 1.97 (35th) | 12.9 (WR31) |
On his target earning alone, Metcalf is consistently on the low end of the WR2 spectrum.
I put an asterisk on last season because Metcalf suffered a midseason knee sprain (MCL) in Week 7. He missed two games with the injury. After that point, it was clear he was not as effective.
In his first seven games, Metcalf was on a career-best pace. He was WR6 in targets per game (8.7), his YPRR was within his usual range (2.16), and he was scoring at the WR15 clip (15.4 FPG).
George Pickens: Stuck as a WR3?
| Year | Targets/G | TPRR | First Read Tgt% | YPRR | FPG (PPR) |
| 2022 | 4.9 (57th) | 0.15 (85th) | 18.6% (48th) | 1.46 (59th) | 9.8 (WR48) |
| 2023 | 6.2 (41st) | 0.21 (45th) | 25.7% (29th) | 2.25 (21st) | 12.3 (WR36) |
| 2024 | 7.1 (29th) | 0.24 (29th) | 32% (9th) | 2.18 (25th) | 11.8 (WR37) |
You see the clear growth with Pickens year-over-year since his rookie season, until you reach that bottom right column – fantasy points per game. So far, Pickens has stalled as a WR3.
QB play was a part of the problem last season. Pickens saw a catchable pass on just 75% of his targets – which was 42nd out of 53 qualifying WRs.
Metcalf and Pickens had identical target depths last season (14 yards on average), but Metcalf’s QB was better. His 80% catchable target rate was solid.
Just as importantly, Pickens was straight up among the unlucky. Based on his volume last season, Pickens’ 14.2 expected PPR points per game ranked WR22. Yet, he only scored as the WR37 (-2.4 points per game below expected).
Pickens lost at least 3-4 TDs due to drops, poorly timed toe-taps where only one foot was down, or bad ball placement by his quarterback. Pickens saw 13 end-zone targets last season, yet only 7 of those looks were actually catchable. He dropped four passes and scored just two TDs off of his ample end-zone targets.
As a reminder – Pickens is entering the final year of his rookie contract.
Volume is still a big concern
This wide receiver pairing is great, but the Steelers will likely remain a low volume passing attack. It’s a concern for our game.
Pittsburgh had the fifth-lowest in pass rate (45.7%) last season. They were among the league’s most run-heavy offenses when leading by a touchdown or more (60.5%).
When Russell Wilson was under center, the Steelers remained committed to the run. Pittsburgh ran the ball more than expected – based on the down/distance/score – in 9-of-11 games with Wilson.
Will Metcalf and Pickens work off of each other well?
The Steelers now have two 6’3” towers who run sub-4.5s at receiver. There is certainly some redundancy. Metcalf and Pickens are both vertical weapons — however, our charting data shows a slightly different viewpoint.
Let’s be clear: Pickens will always be able to make those insane contested catches by the sideline. However, it’s interesting that Pickens was far better by average separation score (0.16) on routes that crossed horizontally on the field when compared to vertical routes (0.06 A.S.S.).
Pickens ran vertically on 47% of his routes last season. That was the ninth-highest rate.
No wide receiver ran more vertical routes than Metcalf (54%). Pickens is fast, but he’s not Metcalf fast (4.33 forty at 228 pounds). It makes sense to have Metcalf play X-receiver while Pickens lines up more at flanker and out of the slot – with the intention of running more horizontally breaking routes.
