A lack of NFL football, or football in general, is a terrible thing. But football is still hanging around, thanks to the UFL! And since DraftKings is offering DFS tournaments, it’s time to discuss the top plays and contrarian options so we can bink some UFL tournaments.
I’ll go position by position, highlighting my favorite plays for tournaments. I'll include a TL;DR for those who don’t want to read my reasoning and just want the top-value plays. I’ll also include teams’ implied totals directly below to help readers understand the offenses Vegas thinks will put the most points on the board.
Team Totals
Memphis Showboats (13.0) @ Birmingham Stallions (24.5)
Michigan Panthers (20.0) @ St. Louis Battlehawks (17.5)
DC Defenders (18.0) @ Arlington Renegades (21.5)
Houston Roughnecks (17.5) @ San Antonio Brahmas (20.5)
TL;DR
In the TL;DR, I’ll list the top plays in order of value (according to me). This isn’t super strict, it does not factor in ownership, and in some cases, it’s sort of arbitrary. It also doesn’t matter nearly as much as my readers think it does. What matters is maximizing the correlations within your lineups, and ensuring you include at least a few players on each tournament team who should be on the lower end of ownership (I highlight a few in my write-ups). Get creative!
Plays ranked in order, with tier 1 in bold, and assumes notable questionable players suit up…
QB: Case Cookus, Jordan Ta’amu, Kellen Mond, Jalan McClendon, Max Duggan, Dresser Winn, Luis Perez
RB: Jacob Saylors, Anthony McFarland, Kalen Ballage, Dae Dae Hunter, Deneric Prince, Jashaun Corbin, Jalen Jackson, Nate McCrary
WR/TE: Kwamie Lassiter, Braylon Sanders, Chris Rowland, Lawrence Keys, Cornell Powell, Dee Anderson, Jacob Harris, Jonathan Adams, Malik Turner, Tyler Vaughns, Jordan Thomas, Justin Hall, Davion Davis, Jaylon Moore, Siaosi Mariner
QB
Bryce Perkins ($10,000) – Despite being the favorite for UFL MVP, Perkins will resume a rotation with Danny Etling ($9,000), as long as Etling is active this week. During his mid-week media availability, Panthers HC Mike Nolan said, “Danny has been cleared. We will decide when we get closer to the game, as far as the pattern we use at the QB position. I’m confident in both players. Nobody loses their job because of injury. That will not change, at the QB position.” You can still take a shot or two on Perkins – there is always a chance he earns a full game or breaks the slate in ~3 quarters of action – but we are likely looking at an annoying split in Week 5.
Jordan Ta’amu ($9,800) – I’ve always maintained that I want to play Ta’amu when everyone thinks he sucks, and fade him when everyone wants him on their roster. But this week might be a bit different. DC is running an extraordinary number of plays (67.5 per game, which would be the most in modern spring football history). This is particularly noteworthy and impressive because UFL clock rules are rather prohibitive to running a high number of plays; in 2024, the league leader in plays per game (San Antonio) averaged just 58.3. This incredible pace, paired with the highest-total game of the slate (39.5) provides Ta’amu with one of the best fantasy profiles we’ve seen throughout his spring career. He’s the best way to pay up at QB in Week 5.
Jalan McClendon ($9,100) – McClendon entered Houston’s Week 4 game at the start of the 2nd quarter for an injured Nolan Henderson and finished the day with 16.1 DraftKings points. McClendon looked great during that outing. Confusingly, he started the season as the QB3 but was throwing with far better velocity and accuracy than the two starters before him. I’d anticipate McClendon will lead this team until Henderson returns from injury, but we could see a bit of a rotation with Anthony Brown (or a short leash for McClendon if he does start). It’s hard to know what to do with that. Since 2014, McClendon has dropped back only 370 times (in college, NFL preseason, and spring football). For perspective, Luis Perez had 354 dropbacks last season in 10 games. McClendon's raw talent opens the possibility that he has massive untapped potential. But do we really think the Houston Roughnecks will be able to unlock that potential? I have my doubts, so I want to taper my McClendon exposure slightly to account for his franchise's general ineptitude.
Update: McClendon has officially been named the starter.
Max Duggan ($8,900) – Duggan came in and struggled after Manny Wilkins tore his Achilles with 12:40 left in the 1st quarter of the Battlehawks Week 4 game. Duggan finished the day with 78 passing yards on 17 attempts, alongside 10 rush attempts for 42 yards. He was eager to run and throw his body around, but was otherwise very mistake-prone within passing concepts (2 interceptions, 49.4 PFF passing grade). And despite trailing for the entire game, the Battlehawks opted for their lowest pass rate of the season (44%). I don’t think St. Louis trusts Duggan to throw, but you can still justify exposure with the hope that he can mostly get it done on the ground.
Case Cookus ($7,700) – Cookus is back, and he’s starting for the team that beat him in the 2022 USFL Championship, against his former team (Memphis). The price tag on Cookus makes him one of the most obvious values of the season, and he’s only aided by Birmingham’s pass-heavy nature. The Stallions have thrown the ball at a league-high 66% clip, ranking behind only Memphis in pass rate when leading (62%). Birmingham’s poor run game (2.9 YPC) and solid matchup (Memphis is allowing the 3rd-highest YPA) should mean plenty of pass attempts for Cookus, making him a slate-best value at just $7,700.
Dresser Winn ($6,000) – I’m not necessarily eager to play a QB on an offense that’s implied for 13.5 points, but Winn has been announced as the Memphis starter, and he’s only the stone-minimum, so we need to entertain it. Winn threw for 2,924 yards (7.7 YPA) in his final year at Tennessee-Martin, and he rarely ran the ball, recording just 79 rushing yards on 28 attempts. This is a pretty sub-par fantasy profile; a pocket passer on a bad offense that oddsmakers don’t expect to score points feels like a tough bet. I don’t mind some Winn exposure – a couple of passing TDs would be all he needs to keep you alive for 1st in tournaments – but the floor is about as bad as you’ll see from a spring football starter.
Update: On Wednesday, Interim HC Jim Turner noted, “He’s starting in the game. And he’s gonna play. And he’s gonna play right through that game, and he’s gonna play that game. He’s going to be our QB in that football game.”
My interpretation here is that the team intends to play Winn for 100% of snaps, but there remains notable benching risk.
RB
Full Season Weighted Opportunity:
Week 4 Weighted Opportunity:
Anthony McFarland ($8,500) – McFarland led Week 4 in weighted opportunity despite a 42% snap share. McFarland’s explosiveness (7.0 YPC) means he can absolutely bury you if he pushes for the 19 opportunities that he earned in Week 4, but I am somewhat worried about his touchdown equity. Jashaun Corbin ($5,600) and Week 4 signing Aidan Robbins ($4,000) earned 100% of San Antonio’s 7 carries inside the 10 last week, although McFarland did earn a single target inside the 10. McFarland still represents one of the better RB plays on the slate, but I would keep in mind that his ceiling is lower than his median would suggest unless he hits on a breakaway TD.
Zaquandre White ($6,700) – White has posted impressive usage in his games without Kirk Merritt ($6,000), but Merritt is expected back this week. If only one of Merritt or White is active on Sunday, we can expect something like the 81% of backfield weighted opportunity that Merritt and White have averaged when this is a two-man backfield with Lorenzo Lingard ($4,700). If all three backs are active, this is an easy stay-away spot. In Week 2, no Houston RB was able to exceed 7.5 WO in a three-man committee.
Nate McCrary ($6,600) – McCrary was back to a more normal workload in Week 4, leading Michigan with 43% of backfield weighted opportunity. Things will look pretty great for McCrary if he and Jaden Shirden ($5,800) are the only active RBs; McCrary earned 60% of backfield WO in his games with just Matthew Colburn. Unfortunately, Panthers HC Mike Nolan told me this week that the team would likely keep 3 RBs active because they are still beat up at the position. That means another rather gross, three-way committee; RB3 Toa Taua ($5,000) has stolen 43% of backfield red zone opportunities over the last two weeks.
WR/TE (Quick Hits)
Hakeem Butler ($6,800) is back this week and is cheap enough to justify using him as a tournament flier. Last season, Butler had 5 receptions of 20+ yards (2nd-most) and two games over 34.5 DraftKings points.
Tyler Vaughns ($6,700) earned a 27% target share last week and would have finished with 19.4 DraftKings points if his 52-yard TD from Luis Perez was not overturned on a Super Challenge. Vaughns at sub-$7k profiles as one of the better value bets among the more expensive WRs, especially after he’s earned 18 targets in the last two weeks.
Kwamie Lassiter ($5,300) led the way in Week 4 with a 78% route share (after a 92% route share with Ken Whisenhunt), and the next-closest WR (Jonathan Adams) was only at 60%. This makes Memphis pass catchers hard to trust (on top of their general offensive struggles). Interestingly, when Turner was asked about TE usage post-game, he said the TEs (and specifically Chris Pierce) would be more involved moving forward as a part of new OC Noel Mazzone’s system. When Mazzone was the offensive coordinator of the New Orleans Breakers in 2022, Sal Cannella finished 2nd on the team with an 18% target share.
Update: Kai Locksley (hamstring) and Eli Stove (concussion) are both out this week. I am anticipating a much more condensed Memphis WR rotation than what we saw in Week 4.
Braylon Sanders ($4,000) earned a 73% route share and 11.7 DraftKings points in his first game without Ty Scott. It looks like Sanders is now a full-time player in DC, and clearly ahead of Javon Antonio (32% route share). Sanders is the best raw value among DC pass catchers, but Cornell Powell ($5,700) and Chris Rowland ($7,200) aren’t far behind.
Dee Anderson ($3,600) is a listed starter and has earned 0.41 TPRR this season. That TPRR is obviously unsustainable, but it’s a good sign. Anderson is staring a season-high route share in the face with Kai Locksley (hamstring) and Eli Stove (concussion) both out this week. He’s a solid contrarian salary saver this week.
Lawrence Keys ($3,400) earned a 92% route share in Week 4, which is particularly strange given that new addition Marcus Simms ($7,000) saw his route share decline from 28% in Week 3 to 16% in Week 4. Why would Houston trade a starting offensive tackle for a WR they don’t intend to play? I’m not sure, but we may need to take Keys a bit more seriously as a salary-saving option. Jalan McClendon could add a spark to this passing offense, and Keys has earned a 15% target share over the last two weeks. Houston will be forced to throw early and often as 10.5-point underdogs, so I don’t mind clicking on Keys if you need the savings.
Cole Hikutini ($3,200) earned a season-high 76% route share last week, including 3 targets for a 13% share. I’m not interested in Hikutini on the main slate, but he’s undeniably interesting for his respective showdown slate, where he costs just $1,600 – less than backup TE Jalen Wydermeyer ($2,000).
