Davante Adams is going back to California.
After being released by the New York Jets, Adams quickly signed a two-year contract with the Rams. He lasted four days on the market. The deal is worth up to $46 million, but all of the guaranteed money ($26M) comes this season. Follow the cash flow. It’s basically a one-year deal.
Adams turns 33 years old in December.
So, after flirting with the idea of a rebuild, the Rams are all-in on Matthew Stafford again. Los Angeles extended Stafford on the last day of February, and inked their stud tackle Alaric Jackson to a three-year extension as well.
The Rams are not far off from really competing. GM Les Snead and their front office have absolutely nailed the facelift of their pass rush in the post-Aaron Donald world. Braden Fiske, Jared Verse, Byron Young, and Kobi Turner all look like huge hits – especially given where they were drafted. Those defensive linemen have combined for 45.5 sacks across 34 games over the last two years. Verse looks like a potential game disruptor, ranking 14th-best by ESPN’s pass rush win rate (18%) metrics as a rookie. With better run support and improved CB play, the Rams defense could be a top-12 unit in 2025.
The offense is going to be great.
Over the last four seasons in 59 full games with Stafford under center (including the playoffs), the Rams have scored points on 41.5% of their possessions. That’s eighth-best, and only a few tenths away from the Ravens (42%) in this span.
Offensive scoring leaders since 2021
percentage of possessions ending in a score
- Bills (46%)
- Chiefs (45%)
- Eagles (44%)
- Lions (43%)
- Cowboys (42.5%)
- 49ers (42.4%)
- Ravens (42%)
- RAMS (41.5% — in games Stafford started from 2021-24)
- Packers (41.2%)
- Bengals (41%)
Now we are adding Davante Adams to the mix. Let’s go.
Fantasy Fallout: Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford has supported two top-24 WRs (by PPR FPG) in three out of his four seasons in Los Angeles. The only season that Stafford failed to do so was in 2022. That was the year that Cooper Kupp was the WR1 in FPG (24.9 PPR points) in Weeks 1-9 before Stafford suffered a season-ending back injury in Week 11.
Rams WRs scoring by PPR fantasy points per game (since 2021)
2021 – WR1 Cooper Kupp (25.7) | WR19 Robert Woods (15.0)
2022 – WR1 Cooper Kupp (22.6) | WR69 Allen Robinson (8.5)
2023 – WR6 Puka Nacua (17.6) | WR24 Cooper Kupp (13.5)
2024 – WR4 Puka Nacua (18.8) | WR23 Cooper Kupp (14.6)
Stafford’s top wide receiver has finished as the WR6 or better in fantasy football in four straight seasons.
Nacua and Adams will co-exist together as top-15 weekly options in fantasy.
In his nine full starts over the back half of last season, Nacua exploded for 74/944/3 receiving (21.8 FPG – WR2). Nacua earned a whopping 40 more targets than Cooper Kupp in this span.
It will be virtually impossible for Nacua to maintain his absurd target rate. From Week 9 on, Nacua lapped the field in targets per route run (0.38). The next closest WR by TPRR was Malik Nabers (0.33).
Davante Adams remains one of the league’s premier target earners.
In their 11 games together in New York, Adams beat Garrett Wilson in the following metrics:
– Average separation score (A.S.S.)
– Route win rate
– Yards and targets per route run
From Fantasy Points Data (Tool: Receiving Separation by Route Breaks)
By comparison, Cooper Kupp’s A.S.S. (0.09) and win rate (14.1%) are basically right alongside Adams. This is a clear case of a team telling us exactly how they feel about a player. Kupp was straight up phased out of the Rams offense by the end of last year.
Davante Adams: A Perfect Fit
According to NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo, HC Sean McVay spent a few days recruiting Adams after he was released by the Jets. McVay called his new receiver, “A real X-receiver… if you get him out on the edge one-on-one, he’s still winning that.”
Over the last two seasons, Demarcus Robinson has operated as the Rams X-receiver. Robinson was typically clearing things out for Nacua and Kupp.
Adams (0.11 A.S.S) was better than Garrett Wilson (0.07 A.S.S.) in Average Separation Score on vertically breaking routes in their 11 games together last season.
Robinson scored poorly by average separation score (0.02) on vertical routes. As the Rams X-receiver, 51.5% of Robinson’s routes were vertically breaking, and that was the fifth-highest rate behind only D.K. Metcalf (53.9%), Troy Franklin (52.2%), Mike Williams (51.9%), and Tyreek Hill (51.6%).
Top-15 Wide Receivers by Average Separation Score on Vertical Routes
| Name | SEP SCORE - VERTICAL |
| Nico Collins | 0.24 |
| Brian Thomas | 0.17 |
| Mike Evans | 0.15 |
| Josh Palmer | 0.15 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 0.15 |
| Jalen Nailor | 0.15 |
| Terry McLaurin | 0.15 |
| Zay Flowers | 0.14 |
| Tank Dell | 0.13 |
| Ladd McConkey | 0.12 |
| Demario Douglas | 0.12 |
| Rashod Bateman | 0.12 |
| Davante Adams* NYJ only | 0.11 |
| Troy Franklin | 0.11 |
| DeVonta Smith | 0.11 |
| Romeo Doubs | 0.11 |
| Jameson Williams | 0.11 |
From Fantasy Points Data (Tool: Receiving Separation by Route Breaks – out of 81 qualifying WR with 100 vertical routes)
If we isolate Adams’ metrics solely during his 11 games with the Jets, he ranked 13th-best by average separation score on vertical routes. By comparison, Kupp’s separation metrics on vertical routes were just fine – 0.07 A.S.S. (29th-best).
Overall, this is the perfect landing spot for Adams to maximize his skill set by playing alongside Puka. We should expect McVay to utilize Adams more on vertical routes while Nacua remains the motion receiver and does the dirty work over the middle on YAC opportunities.
Nacua’s 0.24 A.S.S. on horizontally breaking routes ranked 10th-best last season, just behind Amon-Ra St. Brown (0.25).
Adams will bring improved play at X-receiver, and that alone is worth upgrading Stafford in fantasy football.
Over the last four combined seasons, Stafford is tied with Jared Goff and Joe Burrow for fifth-best by yards per pass attempt (7.6), and he’s eighth-best in yards per game (257.9). The baseline is there for Stafford to finish as a low-end QB1 – he’ll just need to run hot and throw for 30 or more touchdowns.
Los Angeles Rams Fallout – TL;DR
Davante Adams beat Garrett Wilson in Average separation score, route win rate, YPRR, and TPRR in 11 games together.
Matthew Stafford’s top wideout has finished as the WR6 or better in fantasy football in four straight seasons.
Additionally, Stafford has supported two top-24 WRs (by PPR FPG) in three out of his 4 seasons in Los Angeles.
I still expect Puka Nacua to deliver a top-8 finish again.
Adams profiles as more of a high-end WR2 – but there is a world where he earns similar (or more) targets as Nacua. He’s still got it.
In best ball: Stafford should be your top QB2 target when you draft Adams or Nacua.
