The Stat Pack: 2024-25 NFL Wild Card

Since the NFL expanded the playoffs to seven teams in each conference for the 2020 season, favorites are 16-8 straight up (.667) in the Wild Card round.

However, these games are usually tight. Wild Card favorites are just 11-13 against the spread (.458).

Six out of the 8 teams to “upset” the favored team on Wild Card weekend were 3-point underdogs (or shorter).

The Green Bay Packers are the only #7 seed to upset a #2 seed on Wild Card weekend, beating Dallas in last year’s 48-32 blowout. The 2023 Packers are the largest underdogs (+7) to win on Wild Card weekend, too.

Wild Card games are fairly high-scoring. 18 of the 24 matchups in the expanded round have combined for at least 45 points scored. The over has a 15-9 record. Overall, Wild Card meetings are combining for 51.9 points scored on average.

This was a higher-scoring year than the previous two seasons – representing a return to normal. The average 2024 regular season game combined for 45.8 points scored.

In 2023, regular season games averaged just 43.6 combined points. It wasn’t any better in 2022 (average combined points scored: 43.7).

We really needed this rookie QB class to hit and give us some life after so many Hall-of-Fame caliber veterans retired and/or fell off in recent years, and this rookie crop mostly delivered. Especially Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix.

Unless stated otherwise, all of the stats in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.

Let’s get to the slate.

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans (Saturday | 4:30p)

Chargers

Justin Herbert

1. Over their last 12 games of the season, the Chargers were the sixth-most pass-heavy team (+4.8% over expectation). That is just ahead of the Texans (+4.2% PROE).

2. In this span, Herbert averaged 19.4 fantasy points per game (QB11). That was just two-tenths behind Sam Darnold (19.6) since Week 7.

3. Herbert ranks top-12 in fantasy points per dropback against single-high coverages (0.49 FP/DB) and vs. two-high safety looks (0.48 FP/DB).

3b. It will be interesting to see how much man coverage that Texans are willing to play. Why? Well, Ladd McConkey is terrific in one-on-one…

Ladd McConkey

1. McConkey finished his regular season on a tear. After a slow start, McConkey piled up 70 receptions for 1,040 yards and 6 TDs from Weeks 4-18. That’s borderline WR1 numbers at 16.2 PPR FPG (~WR14).

2. McConkey earned at least 18% of the Chargers targets in 14-of-16 games played.

3. The rookie is absolutely crushing man coverages to the tune of 2.98 yards per route run (WR10).

3b. He’s earning a target on 28% of his routes run vs. man coverage. This dips to 23% TPRR vs. zone coverages.

4. McConkey runs 72% of his routes from the slot, which means that he’ll see a ton of Texans slot CB Eric Murray. According to our FP Data, Murray is allowing 0.44 FP per route run, which is the most by a starting CB playing on Wild Card weekend.

J.K. Dobbins

1. Dobbins had a terrific comeback season, rushing for 195/905/9 across 13 games. He also had 32 receptions on 38 targets, but for just 153 yards.

2. He handled 19 and 18 carries in his last two games since coming back from a midseason knee injury, but Gus Edwards (ankle) is nearing a return.

3. Houston is a stingy run defense overall. However, they did struggle a bit against man and gap blocking concepts to close out the year. The Texans allowed 4.9 YPC and a 58% success rate against opponents’ man/gap blocking runs over the final 10 weeks of the season. Both of those figures are bottom-8 in this span.

3b. The Chargers use man/gap blocking on 59% of Dobbins’ runs.

Quentin Johnston

1. Johnston had a roller-coaster season, but his highs were a lot of fun. It all culminated in absolutely hammering the Raiders for career-best 13/186 receiving in Week 18.

1b. He had previously eclipsed 50 yards receiving just twice across 14 games.

2. The Chargers have condensed their targets around McConkey and Johnston. In fact, Johnston has earned at least 16% of the looks in six straight games. Josh Palmer (foot) missed Week 18, and he hasn’t practiced yet this week.

2b. Johnston ran a route on 84% of the Chargers pass plays last week, tying his second-highest involvement of the season.

3. Unfortunately, he’ll likely see a ton of Texans top CB Derek Stingley. It’s a tough spot. Stingley allows just 0.21 FP per route run in his coverage, tied with Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr.

Will Dissly

1. After he missed Weeks 15-16 due to injury, Dissly returned to his usual role with a 66% route participation rate in Week 18. He caught 5/42/1 vs. Raiders.

2. In his last nine games where he’s run a route on at least half of the team’s pass plays, Dissly is third on the Chargers in targets per game (5.3) by a wide margin. He’s turned his decent volume into 37/356/2 receiving (9.4 PPR FPG – TE15).

3. Houston faced an incredibly easy slate of TEs to start the season, but they were quietly cracked for 14.6 PPR FPG — 49/528/5 receiving on 69 targets — since Week 10.

Texans

C.J. Stroud

1. It has been a season to forget for Stroud to this point. Essentially, he’s been completely unusable in fantasy for the entire year. He failed to finish as a top-12 scoring QB in fantasy output since Week 5.

1b. In fact, he finished outside of the top-16 scorers in 9 of his last 10 outings.

2. Stroud’s TD% (3.8% from 4.6%), YPA (7.0 from 8.2), and sack rate (8.9% from 7%) all regressed severely year-over-year.

3. Stroud’s accuracy is extremely mid. By catchable throw rate – how often the quarterback gives his receiver a chance to catch his pass – Stroud ranked QB33 at just 71.4%.

3b. For comparison, Bryce Young is QB34 in catchable throws (71.1%).

3c. Stroud’s 21% off-target throw rate is fourth-worst. Only Anthony Richardson (26.5%), Will Levis (21.9%), and Trevor Lawrence (21.5%) are off-target more often.

4. The Chargers play two-high safety coverages on 59% of their opponents dropbacks, which is third-most.

4b. Against 2-hi looks, Stroud averages just 0.40 FP per dropback. That’s tied with Anthony Richardson for 32nd.

Nico Collins

1. In his last 18 games with C.J. Stroud dating back to last season, Collins has racked up 115 receptions for 1,767 yards and 10 TDs on 160 targets. That’s 19.5 PPR points per game.

2. This should be the healthiest that Collins has been since he suffered a midseason hamstring strain. He barely played in Week 18.

3. Collins is averaging a stellar 3.67 yards per route run vs. 1-hi coverages – Cover-1 man and Cover-3 zone. That’s WR3 behind Puka Nacua (4.33 YPRR) and A.J. Brown (3.94).

3b. Collins’ efficiency dips slightly to 2.38 YPRR (WR10) when he faces 2-hi safety coverages.

Joe Mixon

1. After he racked up 1,081 scrimmage yards and 12 total TDs in nine full starts from Weeks 1-13, Mixon closed his season with a whimper.

1b. Mixon was stuffed in three straight tough matchups for just 35/106 on the ground and 8/60 receiving in Weeks 15-17 (vs. Miami, Kansas City, and Baltimore).

2. Houston will look to get Mixon going once again. This is a significantly easier matchup.

2b. The Chargers allowed 4.46 YPC (ninth-most) and a 55% success rate (fifth-highest) when facing zone-blocking runs this season.

Dalton Schultz

1. Schultz was TE29 in FPG (7.0) this season.

2. Schultz was a little more involved in his final four full games, though. It’s only by necessity since they lost Diggs and Dell.

2b. Schultz has earned at least 15% of the targets in four straight games with Stroud under center. He turned his 24 targets into 14/140/2 receiving (10.0 FPG).

3. The only three tight ends that crossed 50 yards against the Chargers this season were Brock Bowers (twice), Trey McBride, and Travis Kelce.

John Metchie and Diontae Johnson

1. In his first game as a Texan in Week 18, Johnson ran a route on 53% of the team’s pass plays, and earned four targets from Davis Mills (2/12 receiving).

2. Metchie predominantly lines up in the slot (60% of routes), and he’s largely been a part-time player all year. Metchie has been involved on at least 70% of the pass plays in a single game just twice. Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson will mix in.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday | 8p)

Steelers

Russell Wilson

1. Wilson struggled mightily against four playoff-caliber teams to close out his season. It has to be a huge concern for Pittsburgh here. Over his last four games vs. Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals, Wilson completed 62% of his throws for a pathetic 5.7 yards per pass attempt. He also took 14 sacks.

2. Wilson is significantly better against man coverage (0.58 FP per dropback | QB10) than zones (0.34 FP/DB | QB28).

2b. Wilson’s average depth of target falls by -3 yards when facing zones (7.0 aDOT) compared to man coverage (10.0 aDOT).

2c. The Ravens deployed zone coverages on 63% of Wilson’s dropbacks in Week 16 and 68% of the time in Week 11.

George Pickens

1. In his first 12 games of the season, Pickens scored as a high-end WR3 in fantasy. Before suffering a midseason hamstring injury, Pickens was the WR32 in FPG (13.0) with 55/850/3 receiving on 88 targets.

1b. Pickens’ 34.4% first-read target share in Weeks 1-13 ranked WR6.

2. Since he returned from injury, Pickens has turned his last 14 targets into just 4/50 receiving in two games vs. Chiefs and Bengals.

2b. If the Steelers have any hope for the upset, Pickens needs to go off. It’s that simple.

3. Pickens caught 8-of-12 targets for 89 yards in their previous meeting in Week 11.

4. Pickens averages 3.02 yards per route run vs. man coverage (WR9), but that dips to 2.05 YPPR when he faces zone coverages (WR38).

5. The Ravens secondary was stellar to close out the season. Kyle Hamilton, Marlon Humphrey, and Nate Wiggins are all playing great ball. Over the final 10 weeks of the regular season, the Ravens allowed -6.1 schedule adjusted FPG below average to opposing wide receivers. That was second-fewest.

Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren

1. This backfield has been split directly down the middle over the last month. Warren (33/152 rushing) has been the slightly more effective runner over Harris (40/166/1).

1b. Warren has two more targets (13) than Harris (11) in this span.

1c. The duo also split red-zone snaps with Harris (50%) slightly ahead of Warren (44%) across Weeks 15-18.

2. No defense gave up fewer yards per carry (3.34) this season than Baltimore.

Pat Freiermuth

1. In his last nine games since the Steelers bye week, Freiermuth has quietly rejoined the lower end of the TE1 radar. He has turned his 47 targets into a solid 39/389/5 receiving (11.9 FPG – TE8) since Week 10.

2. Freiermuth ran a route on 84% of the Steelers pass plays last week, a season-high.

3. Freiermuth has earned at least 22% of the targets in three out of his last 4 games.

Calvin Austin

1. Austin was made a full-time player in Week 15, with 13/161 receiving on 16 targets to show for it. He’s been involved on at least 70% of the Steelers pass plays in four straight games.

Ravens

Note: Zay Flowers (foot) is out.

Lamar Jackson

1. Jackson (25.8 FPG) was the QB1 in fantasy by a distance over Josh Allen (24.2 FPG) this season.

1b. In fact, Jackson’s 25.8 FPG ranks fifth-most by a QB all-time. It’s just ahead of Peyton Manning’s 25.6 FPG from his 55 TD season in 2013.

2. Pittsburgh plays one-high safety coverage on the majority of the opponents pass plays, and they rarely deviate.

2b. The Steelers used 1-hi looks on 77% and 80% of Jackson’s dropbacks in their two meetings this season.

3. Jackson leads all QBs in FP/DB (0.64) and passer rating (116.8) against one-high safety coverages.

Derrick Henry

1. Thanks largely to Jackson’s dual-threat ability, Henry posted a career-high in yards per carry (5.9) at 31 years old. His previous best mark was 5.4 YPC in 2020.

2. Henry absolutely obliterated the Steelers, Texans, and Browns for 515 total scrimmage yards in Weeks 16-18.

3. Pittsburgh allowed Henry to rumble for 37/227/1 rushing (6.1 YPC) in their two meetings.

3b. The Steelers struggle mightily against zone blocking run concepts – Pittsburgh (5.0) is second-worst by YPC allowed. Only Carolina (5.1 YPC) was worse during the regular season.

3c. Henry (6.4) leads all RBs in YPC off of zone blocking ahead of Jahmyr Gibbs (6.3).

Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely

1. After back-to-back games with 0 catches in Weeks 3-4, Mark Andrews has come to life with 45/553/11 receiving (13.9 PPR FPG – TE5) over his last 12 outings.

1b. He’s making the most of low volume (4.6 targets per game – TE18) thanks to touchdowns. Andrews and Jackson have connected on 9-of-9 end zone targets since Week 5. Not bad.

2. Andrews leads all TEs in average separation score (0.15 A.S.S.) over Sam LaPorta (0.11) since Week 5.

3. Without Zay Flowers, the Ravens are likely to base their entire offense 2-TE formations and a mix of 21-personnel with FB Patrick Ricard. This will lead to more routes overall for Isaiah Likely.

3b. Likely has been involved on at least 53% of the pass plays in three straight games, culminating in 7/76/2 receiving on nine targets.

Rashod Bateman

1. Bateman had a very small Year 4 breakout with 45/756/9 receiving (on 72 targets).

2. He’s been held to just 3/34/1 receiving on 8 targets in two meetings vs. Pittsburgh this season.

3. Zay Flowers’ loss leaves behind 24% of the team’s targets for this game. Unfortunately, this is a brutal matchup. Steelers top CB Joey Porter Jr. will travel with Bateman on Saturday night.

Nelson Agholor

1. Will return after missing the last three games with a concussion. Agholor has 14/231/2 (on 29 targets) across 14 games this season. Tylan Wallace will also mix in.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (Sunday | 1p)

Broncos

Bo Nix

1. Nix finished as the QB8 in fantasy with 19.4 FPG. His output marks the fifth-best season by a rookie QB all-time.

2. Since throwing for just 60 yards in a disastrous Week 4 performance vs. Jets, all that Nix has done is become one of the best passers in football. He’s excellent. The Broncos run a modern west coast offense, with loads of designed screens and short reads to make Nix’s life easier.

2b. Since Week 5, Nix ranks QB5 in catchable throw rate (77.4%), just behind Jared Goff (77.8%).

2c. He’s been awesome on throws deeper down the field, too. Nix’s 59.1% highly accurate throw rate on passes beyond 10+ yards ranks seventh-best (since Week 5).

3. Nix has started to take off and run a bit more as of late, continuing his trend from earlier in the season. Over his last four games, Nix has added 126 yards on 25 carries.

Courtland Sutton

1. Since his random Week 7 goose egg vs. New Orleans, when he didn’t get a single target, Sutton turned into one of the most consistent fantasy WR1 over his last 10 games for 60/804/6 receiving (18.1 PPR FPG – WR8).

2. Sutton has earned at least 24% of the Broncos targets in nine out of his last 10 outings.

3. The Bills rarely play man-to-man coverage (20.3% frequency | sixth-lowest rate), so expect plenty of zones for the Broncos on Sunday.

3b. That’s important here because Sutton has been significantly more efficient when facing man coverage (3.12 YPRR | WR8) compared to zones (1.87 YPRR | WR48).

Marvin Mims

1. Mims is still a part-time player – he hasn’t run a route on more than 46% of the Broncos pass plays in a game this season. Devaughn Vele and Troy Franklin will form a three-way rotation here.

1b. However, good things happen when he touches the football. Mims has turned his 37 targets into 32/447/6 receiving over his last eight games.

1c. Mims has earned 26% and 17% of the Broncos targets in his last two games – both marks are season highs.

2. Almost half (48%) of Mims’ targets come on designed plays like screens.

2b. The Bills have allowed a 100% catch rate and 2.79 YPRR (sixth-most) to receivers on throws at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime, and Javonte Williams

1. If you bet on this Broncos backfield this season, you lost money every week.

2. The Broncos have moved on from Javonte Williams over the last two games:

Bills

Josh Allen

1. Josh Allen (24.2 FPG) was QB2 this season behind Lamar Jackson (25.8 FPG).

2. Buffalo has the ability to go run- or pass-heavy, which makes them so dangerous for the stretch run. OC Joe Brady has definitely leaned harder on the passing game, though. In their last 10 games with Josh Allen (not counting Week 18), the Bills are +5.4% more pass-heavy than expected. That’s fourth-highest in this span.

3. Allen always runs more in the postseason.

3b. Across 10 playoff games, Allen averages 8.3 carries and 56.3 yards on the ground per start.

3c. He averaged 31 yards rushing per game across 2023-24 in the regular season.

4. Will the Broncos test Allen with a bunch of man coverage? The Broncos deploy the fifth-most man-to-man (36%) in the league.

4b. Allen (0.79) trails only Jared Goff (1.03) in fantasy points scored per dropback vs. man coverage.

4c. Allen’s average depth of throw is 10 yards downfield vs. man coverage, but it dips to 8.0 yards vs. zones.

James Cook

1. Cook scored just nine TDs across 33 games to start his career, but he found the end-zone 18 times this season.

2. Cook’s workload isn’t anything special. He’s playing on just 48% of the snaps and ranks RB27 (!) in expected PPR points per game (12.9).

3. But… Touchdowns are a helluva drug. Cook leads the Bills in carries inside-the-10 with 29 (11 TDs) over Allen (18 carries, 10 TDs).

4. The Broncos were stellar against the run this season. If you blitz as often as Denver does (33% frequency), you had better be good at closing holes for runners. The Broncos allow just 3.49 YPC (second-fewest).

Khalil Shakir

1. Over his last 10 games, Shakir has earned a solid 7.6 targets per game for a 56/572/2 receiving result (12.5 PPR FPG).

1b. Shakir has earned 28% of the first-read targets since Week 7. That is well ahead of Dalton Kincaid (20.4%), Amari Cooper (17.4%), and Keon Coleman (15.2%).

2. Shakir would benefit from a zone-heavy gameplan from the Broncos if they don’t want to roll out a bunch of man coverage against Josh Allen.

2b. Shakir averages 2.68 yards per route run vs. zone coverages, but his efficiency dips considerably (1.67 YPRR) against man-to-man.

Dalton Kincaid

1. It has been a second season to forget for Kincaid. He’s TE20 by FPG (7.8). Gross.

1b. Kincaid finished inside of the top-8 weekly scorers among TEs just once all season.

2. Kincaid is earning a target on 28% of his routes, which is tied with Jonnu Smith as TE1. The problem is that he’s not out on the field often enough.

2b. Kincaid’s 57.7% route participation ranks TE25.

3. The Broncos were near the middle of the pack in TE defense this season, allowing 47 yards per game (12th-fewest).

Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper

1. In their last three games together, Coleman (62% route share) has been more involved and earned more targets (11) than Cooper (42% route share | 5 targets).

1b. This will be the healthiest that both receivers have been all season. Both wideouts dealt with midseason wrist injuries.

2. Since he plays the most out of the duo, Coleman will likely see more of Broncos top CB Pat Surtain on Sunday. Surtain is only being targeted on just 10.2% of his coverage routes.

2b. The rest of the Broncos secondary is getting shredded. Even with Surtain performing like one of the top defensive players of the year, Denver still allowed the ninth-most yards per game (183.7) to opposing receivers.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday | 4:30p)

Packers

Jordan Love

1. Over his last 10 starts, the Packers are the fourth-most run-heavy team above expected (+3.7%).

1b. As a result, Love has been extremely game-script-dependent from a volume standpoint.

1c. Love averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game in the Packers five losses.

1d. On the flip side, he only needed to throw it 26.2 times per game in Packers’ wins.

1e. The Packers are +4.5 underdogs on the road vs. Eagles. This is the biggest spread Green Bay has faced this season. They were +3.5 underdogs in Week 14 vs. Detroit.

2. Over the final 10 weeks of the regular season, the Eagles held opposing passers to a league-low 176.9 yards per game.

2b. Philadelphia is holding opposing passers to a league-low 52.3 rating on deep passes over the last 10 weeks.

3. Love finished the fantasy season as the QB17 by FPG (16.3).

Josh Jacobs

1. After scoring only once between Weeks 1-5, Jacobs went on a tear to close out his season. Over his final 10 games, Jacobs piled up 14 total touchdowns and averaged 106 scrimmage yards per start as the Packers workhorse.

1b. Jacobs was RB4 in fantasy points per game from Weeks 7-17 with 21.2 PPR FPG. That was just 0.5 of a FP behind RB2 Bijan Robinson (21.7 FPG) in this span.

2. We should see Jacobs play a full-blown bell cow role with 75-80% of the snaps here.

3. The bad news is that the Eagles are playing great run defense. Philadelphia is holding opposing run games to just 3.7 YPC (fourth-fewest) over the last 10 weeks.

Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks

1. In their two full games together without Christian Watson (ACL), the Packers targets are as follows: Doubs (18), Wicks (18), Reed (12), Kraft (10), Jacobs (4).

1b. Wicks is the field stretcher – his average depth of target is 15.8 yards downfield in two games without Watson.

2. Doubs (27%) and Wicks (26%) are the primary first-read targets, followed by Reed (16%) and Kraft (11%).

3. The Eagles hold opposing outside receivers to 82.2 yards per game. That was third-fewest during the regular season.

4. Jayden Reed hasn’t been a big part of the passing offense for the entire back half of the season. He’s earned more than 15% of the Packers targets just twice in his last 8 outings since the bye week. He’ll face Cooper DeJean lined up in the slot on 80% of his routes.

Tucker Kraft

1. Even with teammate Luke Musgrave back in the fold, Kraft led the Packers in routes in Weeks 17-18. Kraft ran a route on 77% and 79% of the pass plays in these two games.

2. Kraft is forced to go beast mode on underneath targets, and he excels after the catch. He leads all TEs in yards after the catch per reception (9.4) by a mile over George Kittle (6.7).

3. The Eagles have been equally tough on tight ends, allowing just 1.42 yards per route run (second-fewest) to inline receiving options.

3b. Kraft lines up as an inline TE on 55% of his routes.

Eagles

Jalen Hurts

1. Hurts closed out the fantasy football season as the QB5 (21.7 FPG).

2. Hurts had a fascinating season from a number of angles…

2b. Hurts was top-3 among all QBs in yards per pass attempt (9.36), completion rate over expectation (+6.2%), passer rating (129.8), and FP/DB (0.77) when he faced man coverages.

2c. Hurts’ 55.6% highly accurate throw rate vs. man coverages led all quarterbacks…

2d. But, he also had his fair share of loose moments with the football. Hurts’ 4.6% turnover-worthy throw rate vs. man coverage ranked second-worst.

3. By comparison, Hurts ranked 15th in YPA, 8th in CPOE, 12th in passer rating, 20th in FP/DB, and 29th in accurate throws when facing zone coverages.

4. Green Bay is playing very little man-to-man coverage. Almost none. Over the final month of the season, the Packers deployed zone coverage on an overwhelming 86% of their opponents dropbacks.

5. Hurts had all of his top-3 receivers (Brown, Smith, and Goedert) in just three games this year. In those three outings, the Eagles scored 34 (vs. GB), 34 (vs. Dal), and 26 points (vs. Was) on offense.

Saquon Barkley

1. Barkley just piled up 2,283 scrimmage yards across 16 games. That’s 13th-most all-time.

2. Barkley’s 125.3 rushing yards per game ranks 12th-most all-time.

3. Over the Eagles final 10 games of the regular season (with Barkley), they were +8.6% more run-heavy than expected. That’s the second-highest rate.

4. While he didn’t force many missed tackles per carry (0.14), Barkley was the most efficient runner in the NFL. He averaged a league-high 3.55 yards before contact per carry.

5. Barkley just needs one big play to make his day, but the Packers did a great job against the run to close out the year. The Packers allowed just 3.6 yards per carry over the final 10 weeks. That was second-fewest.

A.J. Brown

1. Despite ranking WR24 in targets per game (7.4) this season – Brown still managed to finish WR11 in FPG (16.7).

2. Brown’s 3.22 yards per route run ranks second-best and behind only Puka Nacua (3.59).

3. Brown averages 0.38 targets per route run vs. man coverage, but that dips to 0.24 TPPR when facing zones. That’s a -37% decrease.

4. The Eagles had their top-3 receivers (Brown, Smith, and Goedert) in just three games this year. In these contests, Brown leads the way in targets (29% share) by a wide margin over Smith (20%) and Goedert (16%).

DeVonta Smith

1. In his 11 games with Brown this season, Smith has earned 5.8 targets per game (WR47).

2. Smith truly made the most with his limited volume, turning his looks into 54/678/7 receiving in these 11 contests with Brown. That’s worth 14.9 PPR FPG (WR20).

3. A.J. Brown creates his own offense against man coverage, but the Eagles WR duo produced nearly identical stat lines when they faced zone coverages (11 game sample size together):

Dallas Goedert

1. After missing four games due to a knee injury, Goedert knocked off the rust for 4/55 receiving last week.

2. In his three games with Smith and Brown both on the field, Goedert had 11/117/1 receiving (9.6 PPR FPG – TE16).

2b. Goedert earned 15%, 14%, and 18% of the targets in these three outings.

3. This is a good matchup. The Packers allowed the eighth-most yards per game (57.1) to opposing tight ends.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday | 8p)

Commanders

Jayden Daniels

1. Daniels 21.5 FPG is the third-best single-season by a rookie QB all-time. Only Cam Newton (23.1 FPG in 2011) and Justin Herbert (22.2 FPG) were more productive as rookies.

1b. However, this doesn’t really tell the full story. If we remove the Week 7 game where he left early after two passes and Week 18, Daniels really averaged 23.7 FPG – which would be most all-time.

2. Daniels’ 52.4 rushing yards per game as a rookie ranks third-most all-time, just barely behind Josh Allen (52.6 ruYPG in 2018).

3. When you face the Buccaneers, you had better be ready for the blitz. Tampa Bay blitzes at the highest rate in the league (44%).

3b. Tampa Bay blitzed Daniels on 55% of his dropbacks in his career debut in Week 1.

3c. Daniels’ 2.21 time to throw when blitzed is the fastest in the league. Joe Burrow (2.28 TTT) when blitzed is next fastest.

3d. Daniels’ 90.4 passer rating vs. blitzes is solid.

3e. But, his real upside comes as a scrambler. Daniels has scrambled for a whopping 237 yards on 20 carries (11.9 YPC!!) when he’s blitzed. The next closest QB is Jalen Hurts with 137 scramble yards on 13 carries when blitzed.

Terry McLaurin

1. Always the bridesmaid – never the bride – McLaurin finally broke free from WR3-range purgatory in fantasy football this year. He was WR15 by FPG (15.8).

2. McLaurin and Daniels have connected on 26-of-38 targets for a very solid 26/365/4 receiving (2.20 YPRR) when blitzed this season.

3. Tampa Bay allowed a league-high +5.1 schedule-adjusted FPG above average to opposing wide receivers over the final 10 weeks.

Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler

1. Washington’s backfield is a compartmentalized split. In their eight games together, Robinson (101) leads Ekeler in carries (47).

1b. However, Ekeler (28) leads Robinson (11) by a wide margin in targets.

2. Robinson does have the clear lead near the goal-line. In their eight games together, Robinson has taken 12 inside-the-10 carries. Ekeler has just three.

3. The Buccaneers really turned their run defense around to close out the season. Over the final 10 weeks, Tampa Bay allowed a league-low 3.21 YPC.

Zach Ertz

1. Ertz has earned at least 16% of the Commanders' targets in 11-of-16 games played.

2. Ertz finished the fantasy season as the TE11 in FPG (10.4) – tied with Dallas Goedert.

3. The Buccaneers play almost zero man coverage. Over the last four weeks, Tampa has deployed zones on 79% of their opponents’ dropbacks.

3b. Ertz averages a solid 1.78 yards per route run vs. zone…

3c. But, his YPRR dips to a pathetic 0.90 against man coverage.

Olamide Zaccheaus

1. Without Noah Brown (I.R.), the Commanders made Zaccheaus their #2 wideout to close the season.

2. Zaccheaus ran a route on 61% or more of Washington’s pass plays in three straight games, culminating in 15/206/3 receiving (on 22 targets).

3. Over the last three weeks, Washington’s targets are: McLaurin (23), Zaccheaus (22), Ertz (14).

Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield

1. Finished as a top-10 scoring QB in fantasy football in 11-of-13 games with Mike Evans.

2. Mayfield was one of the best late-round QB picks in fantasy history, averaging 22.6 FPG (QB4) this season.

3. The Commanders struggled to generate pressure to close out the season. Washington was 31st in pressure rate forced (22.4%) over the final 10 weeks.

3b. Mayfield led all QBs in YPA (8.2) and accurate throw rate (46%) when blitzed this season. He was fourth by FP/DB (0.53).

Mike Evans

1. Despite missing three games with a hamstring injury, Evans just notched his 11th straight 1,000-yard season.

2. Since returning to the field in Week 12, Evans piled up 48/669/5 receiving (on 65 targets) across his final seven appearances.

2b. That’s 20.7 FPG (WR3).

3. Since Week 12, Evans has earned a target on a whopping 33% of his routes run. The only receiver with a higher TPRR in this span? That’d be Puka Nacua (0.41).

4. Washington has really ramped up their man coverage usage as of late. Over the final four weeks, the Commanders deployed man-to-man on 46% of their opponents coverage snaps.

4b. Marshon Lattimore vs. Evans – Round 17 will be a lot of fun:

Bucky Irving

1. Irving has completely taken over as the Buccaneers lead running back.

1b. In two must-win games in Weeks 17-18, Tampa Bay gave Irving 39 carries and 9 targets.

1c. Sean Tucker (10) had one more carry than Rachaad White (9) in Weeks 17-18. White had just one target.

2. Irving is averaging an unreal 129 scrimmage yards per game over his last seven starts.

2b. By comparison, Saquon Barkley led all RBs in YSM/G with 142.7.

3. Washington allowed a league-high 5.65 yards per carry off of man/gap blocking concepts this season.

3b. The Bucs’ use man/gap blocking concepts on 55% of Irving’s carries.

Jalen McMillan

1. McMillan broke out over his final five games of the season for 24/316/7 receiving.

2. The touchdowns will dry up, but McMillan has earned at least 16% of the Buccaneers targets in every game in this stretch.

3. McMillan is strong against man-to-man coverage, averaging 2.02 yards per route run.

3b. By comparison, his efficiency dips by nearly a full yard against zones (1.08 YPRR).

Cade Otton

1. After missing the last three games with a knee injury, Otton is set to return.

2. Over his last four games with Mike Evans on the field, Otton earned just 17 targets for a 10/144 receiving result.

2b. In these four outings, Otton earned 10%, 21%, 14%, and 11% of the Buccaneers targets.

3. Washington was solid against tight ends during the regular season – allowing just 39.9 yards per game (fifth-fewest).

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (MNF | 8p)

Vikings

Sam Darnold

1. Darnold finished the season as QB9 with 19.1 FPG.

1b. He finished as a top-12 scoring QB on a weekly basis in 10-of-16 games.

2. Darnold finished top-6 in TD% and YPA, but his charted 4% turnover worthy throw rate ranked 11th-worst.

3. Darnold’s 2.86 time to throw ranks second-slowest. Only Jalen Hurts (2.9 TTT) holds the ball longer.

3b. The thing is… Darnold is much better when he gets the ball out quickly. 11 of his 12 INTs came when he held the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds.

4. The Vikings have one weakness, and it’s their offensive line. Minnesota has allowed pressure on 32% or more of Darnold’s dropbacks in 15-of-17 games.

4b. The Rams 2.39 average time to pressure in Week 8 was the second-fastest TTP that Darnold faced all season.

Justin Jefferson

1. Jefferson ended the campaign as fantasy’s WR4 (18.7).

2. Jefferson’s career fantasy finishes are: WR10 > WR5 > WR2 > WR5 > WR4.

3. Jefferson has earned at least 22% of the Vikings targets in 16-of-17 games.

4. Jefferson could have gone for 150+ vs. Rams in Week 8, but Darnold dropped back to pass only 28 times in that game.

4b. The Rams allow 2.20 yards per route run to opposing outside wide receivers (fourth-most).

Jordan Addison

1. After a slow start dealing with bilateral ankle sprains, Addison turned it up in the back half of the year. From Week 9 on, Addison was the WR17 by FPG (16.3) with 49/644/8 receiving on 71 targets.

2. Addison earned at least 19% of the Vikings targets in seven of his last 8 games.

3. The Rams play zone coverage predominantly, and they don’t change their plan. Los Angeles deployed zones on 65% or more of their opponents dropbacks in 16-of-17 games.

3b. In Week 8, Minnesota faced zone coverage on 76% of their pass plays.

3c. Over their 10 games together, Jefferson (27%) leads the way in target share vs. zone coverage, followed by Addison (19%) and Hockenson (16%).

Aaron Jones

1. Jones closed out the fantasy season as the RB23 in FPG (14.4).

1b. Jones was a strong RB2 for seasonal leagues, but he didn’t have a consistently high ceiling. He finished as a top-12 scoring RB on a weekly basis in just 5-of-17 games.

2. The Vikings have used Jones as a bell cow at times this season, and it’d certainly make sense to unleash him for 80% of the snaps here. Cam Akers has annoyingly mixed in to close the season.

3. Los Angeles is definitely leaky on the ground. They’re bottom-10 in YPC (4.55) and success rate (52.5%) allowed off of zone blocking carries.

3b. Nearly 60% of Jones’ carries are off of zone blocking.

T.J. Hockenson

1. In their 10 games together, Jefferson (90) led the Vikings in targets, followed by Addison (71) and then Hockenson (58).

1b. Hockenson’s 5.8 targets per game ranks merely TE10.

1c. By expected PPR points per game, Hockenson was TE9 (10.0). He actually scored 8.7 FPG (TE18).

2. This is an awesome spot. The Rams allowed the fourth-most yards per game (64.8) to opposing tight ends.

Rams

Matthew Stafford

1. The Rams were very balanced to close out the regular season. Los Angeles was 23rd by pass rate over expectation from Weeks 8-17.

2. Stafford averaged 10 more pass attempts per game in losses (38.7) compared to wins (28.5).

3. Stafford had some of the widest pressure splits during the regular season. If the Rams keep him clean, he will dice the Vikings.

3b. Stafford is 26th in passer rating (45.9) and 25th in turnover worthy throws (8.1%) when he was pressured.

3c. When kept clean, Stafford ranked 11th-best by passer rating (106.7) and his turnover worthy throw rate was just 2%.

4. The Vikings blitz at the second-highest rate (42%), and DC Brian Flores dialed up his usual pressure looks with a 59% blitz rate when these two teams met back in Week 8.

4b. Stafford threw for 279 yards and 4 TDs in Week 8 because the Rams did an excellent job at diagnosing and picking up the blitzes. Stafford was pressured just four times on 34 dropbacks, and he wasn’t sacked.

Puka Nacua

1. In his nine full starts over the back half of the season, Nacua exploded for 74/944/3 receiving (21.8 FPG – WR2).

2. Nacua earned a whopping 40 (!!) more targets than Kupp in this span.

3. This entire passing game is built around Nacua. He’s earning 0.38 targets per route run since Week 8, leading all receivers in a landslide.

4. Nacua leads all receivers in yards per route run (4.94) when the defense blitzes.

5. Minnesota allows the second-most yards per game (120.0) to opposing outside wide receivers.

Kyren Williams

1. Williams has played at least 79% of the Rams snaps in 15-of-16 games.

2. He’s just a TD machine with 31 total TDs across his 28 starts dating back to last year.

3. The Vikings are very sturdy against the run, allowing 79.2 yards per game (sixth-fewest).

Cooper Kupp

1. Kupp closed out the fantasy football season with a pathetic 4 catches for 53 yards across three games in the Week 15-17 playoffs.

2. In their nine games together, Nacua has earned 38 targets against the blitz. Kupp has 19 targets.

3. Kupp will mainly line up against Vikings slot CB Byron Murphy, and he has been excellent as of late. Over the last 10 weeks, only Texans CB Derek Stingley (43.9) has a lower passer rating in his coverage than Murphy (47.7 rating).