It’s Week 18, which means that we’re looking at a completely different NFL slate than normal.
This is typically the most difficult week of the season to project because playoff teams are resting some of their key starters,
and many teams are tanking to “improve” their positioning in the NFL Draft.
We’ll diagnose exactly what each team has to play for.
Week 18 Cheat Sheet
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (Saturday | 4:30p)
Browns
Cleveland currently holds the #3 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. They’re locked into a top-3 pick unless they somehow pull off a miracle as +18 underdogs.
HC Kevin Stefanski will sit some injured starters on Saturday. DE Myles Garrett (thigh) will play. RB Jerome Ford (ankle), TE David Njoku (knee), and CB Denzel Ward (shoulder) are among the Browns key starters that are out.
Ravens
Baltimore will take the AFC North title with a win. The Ravens are likely the #3 AFC seed.
The Ravens are full-go, and Lamar Jackson is trying to put his stamp on a third NFL MVP.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (Saturday | 8p)
Bengals
Cincinnati needs to win and for Denver and Miami both to lose in order to make the playoffs as the #7 AFC seed.
QB Joe Burrow and his receivers must put the team on their back again. RB Chase Brown (high ankle sprain) is likely out, leaving only Khalil Herbert as their main ball carrier.
Incentive – TE Mike Gesicki needs 3 receiving yards for a $125,000 bonus (via Spotrac).
Steelers
If the Ravens (-17.5 favorites) beat the Browns on Saturday afternoon, Pittsburgh will be locked in as a wild card in the #5 or #6 AFC seed.
Losers of three straight games, the Steelers are not exactly on fire to close out the year. HC Mike Tomlin could elect to take it easy on some key starters if he wanted. Given how sluggish this offense has looked against three playoff defenses (Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs), it makes sense for QB Russell Wilson to play and get back in a rhythm.
However, Pittsburgh hasn’t been in a situation where they could rest starters ahead of the postseason since their division titles in 2020 and 2017. Mike Tomlin used both of those opportunities to rest some key players in those regular-season finales.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Saints
New Orleans currently holds the #10 pick in the NFL Draft.
Buccaneers
Tampa Bay needs to win to lock down the NFC South. It’s that simple. The Buccaneers can also back in with a loss to New Orleans and an Atlanta loss. They can’t make the playoffs as a wild card.
Incentive – WR Mike Evans needs 5/85 receiving for an additional $3,000,000 bonus (via Spotrac). He is 85 receiving yards away from tying Jerry Rice’s record for consecutive 1000-yard seasons (11).
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Giants
New York currently holds the #4 pick in the NFL Draft.
Eagles
Philadelphia is locked into the #2 seed in the NFC. They will rest all of their key starters. The Eagles will host the Packers or Commanders next week.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Bills
Buffalo is locked into the #2 seed in the AFC. The Bills have zero incentive to risk key starters since they can’t improve their playoff standing.
HC Sean McDermott hasn’t had the chance to rest his starters ahead of the playoffs in each of the last three years. Buffalo was fighting for the AFC East crown in 2023 and 2021, and they still had a chance for the #1 seed in 2022 to close out Week 18.
Patriots
New England currently has the #1 pick in the NFL Draft, and with a seventh straight loss, they will be picking first in April.
QB Drake Maye will start. The rookie needs reps – not rest.
Incentive – TE Austin Hooper needs 4 receptions for an additional $125,000 bonus (via Spotrac).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Jaguars
Jacksonville holds the #5 pick in the NFL Draft. The Jaguars two meaningless wins over the Titans guaranteed that they will not pick #1 in 2025. HC Doug Pederson and his staff will be fired on Monday after the game. GM Trent Baalke’s job isn’t safe, either.
Colts
Indianapolis was eliminated from the playoffs last week.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Bears
Chicago holds the #9 pick in the NFL Draft again.
Packers
Green Bay is locked in as the #6 or #7 wild card NFC seed. They’re currently in the #7 spot. The loser of Vikings-Lions (SNF) will take the #5 NFC seed.
The Packers would much rather travel to Los Angeles or Tampa Bay next week as the #6 seed, but they’ll need to win and for the Commanders to lose in order for that to happen. The Commanders hold the tiebreaker over the Packers (1-4 in division) thanks to their superior divisional record (Commanders: 3-2).
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Commanders
Washington’s motivation is simple. They’ve already clinched a playoff berth, and with a win, they’ll be the #6 NFC seed. The Commanders hold the tiebreaker over the Packers thanks to their superior division record (3-2). Green Bay is 1-4 in their division.
HC Dan Quinn made it clear that his team is “fighting like hell” to keep the #6 seed. With a win in Dallas, Washington will travel to Los Angeles or Tampa Bay next week.
This spread – Washington -4.5 – stinks. The Commanders were -10.5 favorites back in their Week 12 upset vs. Cowboys at home. Dallas’ coaching staff are fighting for their jobs, but they just got pummeled 41-7 by Philadelphia (without Jalen Hurts). Star WR CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) is on I.R.
Cowboys
Dallas holds the #13 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Panthers
Carolina is currently picking #6 in April.
Falcons
Atlanta needs to win and for Tampa Bay to lose in order to win the NFC South.
The Falcons will be scoreboard watching on Sunday. They’re hoping for an unlikely Saints upset of the Buccaneers in the 1 PM window.
Atlanta is a healthy -8.5 favorite over Carolina.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Texans
Houston can’t improve their seeding for the playoffs. They’re locked into the #4 spot.
C.J. Stroud hasn’t played consistently well to close out this season. Will the Texans give him a drive or two to try and get some rhythm going into the playoffs?
Incentive – RB Joe Mixon needs 107 rushing yards for a $250,000 bonus (via Spotrac).
Titans
Tennessee is the #2 pick in the NFL Draft, if the current standings hold.
Incentive – RB Tony Pollard needs 83 rushing yards for a $250,000 bonus (via Spotrac).
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (4:25p ET)
49ers
San Francisco is picking #11 in the upcoming NFL Draft. It will be the earliest that the 49ers have drafted in Round 1 since the Trey Lance debacle in 2021.
Cardinals
Arizona wouldn’t mind intentionally losing to better their draft position. If they lose to the 49ers, the Cardinals will leapfrog San Francisco in Round 1. The two teams would finish with identical records, but the Cardinals strength of schedule is slightly weaker, giving Arizona the tiebreaker.
Incentive – QB Kyler Murray needs 50 rushing yards and a TD on the ground for a $750,000 bonus (via Spotrac).
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (4:25p ET)
Dolphins
Miami can clinch the #7 AFC seed with a win and a Denver loss.
The Broncos also play in the 4:25p game window.
Jets
New York holds the #7 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. This might be Aaron Rodgers’ final career game, and he’s chasing down TD #500.
Incentive – TE Tyler Conklin needs 1 reception for a $250,000 bonus (via Spotrac).
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (4:25p ET)
Seahawks
Seattle was eliminated from the playoffs last week. They’re -6.5 road favorites because Rams HC Sean McVay will rest his starters.
Incentive – QB Geno Smith can earn some serious cash on Sunday. Smith needs 185 yards for a $2,000,000 bonus. A meaningless Seahawks win would earn him another $2,000,000 bonus (via Spotrac).
Rams
Los Angeles has clinched the NFC West, and the Rams are guaranteed a home playoff game as the #3 or #4 seed. HC Sean McVay will not risk any starter that is crucial for next week. McVay rested his starters two years ago in their Week 18 game ahead of their matchup in the playoffs.
QB Jimmy Garoppolo will start.
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (4:25p ET)
Chargers
Los Angeles’ seeding is contingent upon the outcome of the Bengals-Steelers game. If Pittsburgh wins, the Steelers will be the #5 seed in the AFC. Pittsburgh and Los Angeles have identical 10-6 records, but the Steelers have the head-to-head tiebreaker due to their Week 3 win over the Chargers.
If the Steelers lose and the Chargers win, then Los Angeles will be the #5 AFC seed. They’ll travel to Houston next week. The Chargers would much rather play C.J. Stroud than MVP Lamar Jackson in the Wild Card round.
This spread (-5) is a little stinky and definitely covers the possibility that Pittsburgh wins on Saturday. Los Angeles has won and covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games. Their six losses this season are all to playoff contenders – Steelers, Chiefs (2x), Cardinals, Ravens, and Buccaneers. The Chargers should be closer to -6.5 or -7 favorites in Las Vegas.
If Pittsburgh wins, HC Jim Harbaugh could elect to rest his starters. However, I project that Cincinnati wins on Saturday, which means Los Angeles will be full-go for the #5 seed.
Incentive – RB J.K. Dobbins needs 58 rushing yards for an additional $150,000 bonus (via Spotrac).
Raiders
Las Vegas is picking #8 in the NFL Draft, if the current standings hold. HC Antonio Pierce will likely be fired on Monday.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (4:25p ET)
Chiefs
Kansas City has already locked down the #1 seed in the AFC, and a first-round bye. HC Andy Reid has elected to give some of his key starters two weeks off to rest up. The top seeded Chiefs rested most of their key starters in Week 18 last year.
QB Carson Wentz will be under center.
Incentive – WR DeAndre Hopkins needs a TD for a $500,000 bonus. Nuk also needs an unlikely 9 catches for 140 yards for two additional $250,000 bonuses (via Spotrac).
Broncos
Denver’s playoff path remains simple. The Broncos (-10.5 favorites) just need to win and they’re in as the #7 AFC seed.
Incentive – WR Courtland Sutton needs 82 receiving yards for a nice $2,000,000 bonus (via Spotrac).
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (SNF)
This game decides the NFC North and the #1 seed. The loser will be on the road in January as the #5 seed.
Vikings
Minnesota is 11-4-1 against the spread, a league-best 73% cover rate.
Lions
Detroit is 11-5 against the spread, tied for second-best in cover rate (68%).
The Lions are scoring points on 52% of their possessions. That’s the best scoring rate for any offense since the 2019 Ravens (51.8%), per Pro Football Reference.
Start/Sit – QB
As always, use our projections for any final start/sit calls that you have this week. We’re mainly focused on bankable volume and playing time.
This is an extremely condensed version of the usual article.
Must Start
Jayden Daniels
Baker Mayfield
Lamar Jackson
Joe Burrow
Sam Darnold
Jared Goff
Bo Nix
Start ‘Em
Jordan Love
Geno Smith
Kyler Murray (very slight bench risk)
Justin Herbert (slight bench risk)
Russell Wilson (slight bench risk)
Drake Maye
Bryce Young
Michael Penix
Caleb Williams
Sit ‘Em
Josh Allen (extreme bench risk) – We’ll see a lot of Mitch Trubisky.
C.J. Stroud (extreme bench risk) – We’ll see a lot of Davis Mills.
Aaron Rodgers (dust)
Tyler Huntley
Josh Dobbs – QB Brock Purdy (elbow) is out.
Aidan O’Connell
Mac Jones
Joe Flacco – In line to start again. Anthony Richardson (back) missed last week, and he isn’t practicing ahead of Week 18.
Carson Wentz
Cooper Rush
Tanner McKee – In line to start in place of the injured Jalen Hurts (concussion) and Kenny Pickett (ribs).
Jimmy Garoppolo
Drew Lock
Spencer Rattler – Stream the Buccaneers D/ST.
Mason Rudolph and Will Levis – Will both play. The Titans will draft their QB of the future in four months.
Bailey Zappe – Ravens D/ST is the best defense play on the slate.
Start/Sit – RB
Must Start
Bijan Robinson
Jahmyr Gibbs
Derrick Henry
Bucky Irving
Jonathan Taylor
Josh Jacobs
Zach Charbonnet
De’Von Achane
Start ‘Em
Tyrone Tracy
Aaron Jones
Rico Dowdle
Breece Hall
Michael Carter – The Cardinals placed James Conner and Trey Benson on I.R., leaving only Carter and DeeJay Dallas in their backfield. Carter played on 70% of the snaps last week.
Tony Pollard – Didn’t play in the fantasy finals, but he has a chance to suit up on Sunday. Pollard (ankle) returned to limited practice. Tyjae Spears (concussion) won’t play.
J.K. Dobbins
FLEX Plays
Blake Corum – Will get extended run with the Rams resting Kyren Williams. Corum is in line for 12-15 touches at worst, and he could just be a full-blown bell cow.
Ray Davis – Will likely get extended run with the Bills resting James Cook for most of the game.
Will Shipley – Will get extended run with Saquon Barkley (rest) out.
Khalil Herbert – The Bengals likely won’t have Chase Brown (high ankle sprain) on Sunday. Herbert is in line for 12-15 touches. The Bengals haven’t played RB3 Trayveon Williams on more than 7% of snaps this season.
Isaac Guerendo – Handled 9/34 rushing last week. Patrick Taylor didn’t get a carry. Brock Purdy (elbow) is out.
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren
Brian Robinson
Carson Steele – Might play a ton. The Chiefs won’t risk using Isiah Pacheco or Kareem Hunt here, and Samaje Perine is a valuable third-down RB. The rookie Steele might have the backfield mostly to himself on Sunday. HC Andy Reid rested starters last season in Week 18, in which he gave La’Mical Perine 24 touches and 81% of the snaps. The only massive problem is that the Chiefs have the second-worst implied total (14.8 points) on this slate.
Ameer Abdullah – Dropped 20/115 rushing last week, literally out of nowhere. Abdullah played on 62% of the snaps over Alex Mattison (31%). Abdullah is managing a foot injury.
Sit ‘Em
Saquon Barkley (rest)
Kyren Williams (rest)
James Cook (extreme bench risk)
Joe Mixon (extreme bench risk) – The Texans likely won’t risk getting Mixon injured just so he can chase down his incentives. We’ll likely see Dare Ogunbowale and Dameon Pierce.
Rachaad White (ethered by Bucky Irving)
D’Andre Swift – Has just 402 scoreless scrimmage yards on 92 touches over his last six games. Swift’s 64% snap rate marked a five-week low. The Bears are +10 underdogs. The Bears (15.5 implied points) have a slightly worse projection than the Rams (16 implied points).
Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne
Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson
D’Onta Foreman – The Browns won’t have RB Jerome Ford (ankle) or Pierre Strong.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Out-snapped Kendre Miller (concussion) by a 45% to 13% margin last week. Miller might miss the season finale in the league’s concussion protocol.
Miles Sanders – Will return after missing the last four games on I.R. (ankle). This will be a committee with Raheem Blackshear.
Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime – This duo split the backfield last week. McLaughlin (10/69 rushing) was far better than Estime (9/24). Javonte Williams didn’t get a carry.
Start/Sit – WR
Must Start
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins
Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams
Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison
Brian Thomas
Mike Evans
Tee Higgins
Malik Nabers
Courtland Sutton
Ladd McConkey
Start ‘Em
Adam Thielen
Drake London
Davante Adams
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
DJ Moore and Keenan Allen
Terry McLaurin
George Pickens
Tyreek Hill
FLEX Plays
Jakobi Meyers
Zay Flowers
Garrett Wilson
Calvin Ridley
Jerry Jeudy
Michael Pittman and Josh Downs
Marvin Harrison Jr.
DK Metcalf
Darnell Mooney
Jalen McMillan
Deeper FLEX Plays
Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall – Deebo Samuel (ribs) might not play. Josh Dobbs’ career yards per attempt is 5.8. The 49ers have the same implied team total (19.3 points) as the Titans and Jaguars.
Romeo Doubs
Olamide Zaccheaus
Wan’Dale Robinson
Quentin Johnston
Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington – The Rams have the fifth-lowest implied team total (16 points) on the slate with their backups. However, their passing game could be very concentrated around Atwell and Whittngton.
Alec Pierce – Slammed the Giants for 6/122/1 receiving last week. The Jaguars are burnable deep.
Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert
Marvin Mims
Parker Washington
Sit ‘Em
Nico Collins (extreme rest risk) – It’ll be a lot of John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson on Sunday.
Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp (resting)
AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith (resting)
Xavier Worthy and DeAndre Hopkins (resting)
Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Amari Cooper (extreme rest risk)
Deebo Samuel
Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks
Xavier Legette – Earned nine targets last week, but only turned the looks into 5/28 receiving. Jalen Coker was limited to 2 targets (2/35 receiving).
Mack Hollins – Will play a ton with Mitch Trubisky.
Rome Odunze
Jaylen Waddle – Might return after missing the last two weeks with a knee injury. Waddle could be limited if he’s able to go.
Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte
Tyler Johnson
Nick Westbrook
Rashod Bateman
Calvin Austin
Jalen Nailor
Start/Sit – TE
Must Start
Brock Bowers
Trey McBride
Sam LaPorta
Mark Andrews
Start ‘Em
George Kittle – Questionable to play (ankle).
Jonnu Smith – Has 5/62, 7/96/1, and 3/26/1 receiving in his last three starts with Dolphins backup QBs.
Chig Okonkwo
Zach Ertz
Hunter Henry
TJ Hockenson
Pat Freiermuth
Tucker Kraft
Tyler Conklin – Quietly has 13/116/1 receiving with 17% and 25% of the targets over the last two weeks. Aaron Rodgers will play the whole game.
Payne Durham – If Cade Otton (knee) is out again, then Durham is back in play as a desperation streamer. He has 7/65/1 receiving on 10 targets over the last two weeks without Otton.
Mike Gesicki
Sit ‘Em
Travis Kelce (extreme bench risk)
Dalton Kincaid (extreme bench risk)
Dalton Schultz (extreme bench risk)
Isaiah Likely
Juwan Johnson – Led the Saints in targets last week (10).
Noah Fant
Kyle Pitts
Grant Calcaterra
Jake Ferguson
Brenton Strange
Will Dissly – The Chargers went with a TE by committee last week. Dissly (35%) and Stone Smartt (33%) split routes.
Jordan Akins
Noah Gray
Cole Kmet
