It’s Championship week!
Welcome to Week 17 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE; top-20 plays at RB; top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week plays at QB and TE for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit.
Good luck this week!
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (Wednesday | 1p ET)
The Chiefs are in command of the #1 seed in the AFC. Kansas City can lock down a first-round bye with a win. The Steelers are small home underdogs (+3). With a third straight loss, they’d cede the lead to the AFC North to the Ravens.
Start ‘Em
George Pickens – Will return after missing the last three weeks with a hamstring injury. Pickens returned to full practice on Tuesday. Over his six starts with Wilson at QB, Pickens was breaking out as a lower-end WR1 with 29/497/3 receiving (16.0 FPG ~WR16). If he’s close to full go, the volume should be solid. Pickens has earned a whopping 35% of the first-read targets, while the next closest Steeler WR is Calvin Austin at 13% FR share. At worst, he’s an upside WR2/FLEX option for the finals.
Travis Kelce – Unless he scores twice in Weeks 17-18, this will easily be a career-low in TDs for Kelce. He’s scored just twice through 15 games. His 49.3 yards per game are also a career-low. He’s TE7 by FPG (11.6), and that’s -1.2 FPG behind Jonnu Smith (12.8). You have no other choice but to keep playing him as a mid-range TE1.
FLEX Plays
Xavier Worthy – We’ve seen a bit of a late-season breakout for Worthy. He’s earned 28% and 27% of the targets in each of his last two starts, turning his strong volume into 13/111/1 receiving. He’s also added 6/40/1 as a runner. Worthy still needs a lot of polish, but the Chiefs are forcing the ball to him. In their first game with Hopkins, Brown, and Worthy all on the field, it was the rookie who took over as the main slot receiver (65% deployment). Getting the shallow, easy grabs is huge for Worthy’s fantasy stock. His matchup is made easier with Steelers top CB Joey Porter (knee) out.
Sit ‘Em
Patrick Mahomes – Has spent the last two seasons as a low-end QB1 for fantasy. Mahomes has finished as a top-10 scorer on a weekly basis just eight times in his last 33 games (24%). His 240.5 passing yards per game and efficiency (6.6 YPA) in 2024 are both well below career average marks (296.0 YPG | 7.9 YPA) prior to this season. Once again, you’re looking for more upside in 1-QB leagues. He’s scored more than 20 FP three times this season. Pittsburgh’s pass rush will look to tee off on Mahomes here. Kansas City will have to start Joe Thuney at LT again – D.J. Humphries will miss his third straight game – while RT Jawaan Taylor is a turnstile.
Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco – Over the last two weeks, the Chiefs have split their backfield work right down the middle. Hunt (41%) has the slight lead in snaps over Pacheco (35%), and both RBs have handled similar volume. Hunt has turned his 27 touches into 128 scrimmage yards and a TD. Pacheco hasn’t gotten it rolling yet. He’s been held to 72 scoreless scrimmage yards on his 24 touches in the fantasy quarter- and semi-finals. This backfield is on the board for lower-end FLEX decisions here. Pittsburgh’s run defense has been cracked for a league-high 6.1 YPC off of zone-blocking carries over the last 10 weeks.
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren – This is the worst possible matchup on the ground against a great Chiefs run defense. Both of these Steeler RBs are desperation FLEX plays. The good news? They’re both likely going to be active in the passing game. Russell Wilson checks the ball down 15% of the time vs. 2-high safety coverages, which is the second-highest rate behind Derek Carr (16%). It has resulted in Harris (14%) and Warren (13%) combining for 27% of the team’s targets vs. 2-high looks. Over the last 10 weeks, the Chiefs have just allowed 3.8 YPC (sixth-lowest) and a 2.5% explosive run rate (fourth-lowest).
DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown – Hopkins has been held under 40 yards in five of his last 6 games. He remains a TD-or-bust WR4. Brown made his 2024 debut last week and he immediately earned eight targets (5/45 receiving), despite running a route on just 33% of the pass plays.
Russell Wilson – SuperFlex only.
Calvin Austin
Pat Freiermuth – Now that Pickens is back, Freiermuth is off of the board. In his six starts with Wilson under center and Pickens on the field, he’s averaging just 3.3 targets/game (TE32).
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (Wednesday | 4:30p)
The Ravens need a win and a Steelers loss to flip Pittsburgh for the AFC North lead. The Texans are pretty much locked into the #4 seed.
Must Start
Lamar Jackson – Closing out what should be his third MVP. Jackson’s 25.2 FPG ranks the sixth-most by a QB all-time.
Nico Collins – In his last 17 games with C.J. Stroud dating back to last season, Collins has racked up 112 receptions for 1,708 yards and 10 TDs on 154 targets. That’s 20.2 PPR points per game. Collins has a chance to win leagues this week with Tank Dell (knee) out. The Ravens aren’t a sieve secondary any longer, though. Over the last 10 weeks, they’ve been a neutral matchup by schedule adjusted FPG allowed to receivers (-0.1 | 18th).
Derrick Henry – Can he finally score a TD in the finals!? After scoring a TD in 11 straight games to start his season – 15 scores in total – King Henry hasn’t hit paydirt since Week 12 vs. Pittsburgh. Henry just blasted the Steelers for 189 scoreless scrimmage yards last week. Houston allows big plays on the ground. Over the last 10 weeks, the Texans have given up an explosive run of 15+ yards on 5.7% of opponents’ carries (third-highest).
Start ‘Em
Joe Mixon – His fantasy season has closed out with a whimper. Mixon has been held out of the endzone in three of his last 4 games, and he’s been held in check on the ground with just 80 rushing yards on 26 carries since their bye week. This is yet another tough spot as +5.5 home underdogs against a great Ravens run defense. Baltimore is holding RBs to a league-low 3.5 YPC. Mixon is a volume-based RB2.
Mark Andrews – After back-to-back games with 0 catches in Weeks 3-4, Andrews has come to life with 43/486/9 receiving (13.3 PPR FPG – TE5) over his last 11 outings. He’s making the most of low volume (4.5 targets per game – TE18) thanks to touchdowns. Andrews and Jackson have connected on 7-of-7 end zone targets since Week 5. Not bad.
FLEX Plays
Zay Flowers – Nursing a minor shoulder injury. Flowers has only scored 4 TD this season, but he’s quietly WR21 by yards per game (67.7). As always, he’s on the board as a WR3/FLEX. Flowers should get a few extra targets this week with the Ravens down Nelson Agholor (concussion) and RB Justice Hill (concussion). Flowers will mostly align against Texans slot CB Eric Murphy, who allows a league-high 0.46 FP/route run in his coverage.
Stream ‘Em
Dalton Schultz – Nailed him as the top streaming TE of the semi-finals slate last week, and I’m back in again here. Schultz tied for his season-high in targets (8) last week, turning his solid volume into a usable 5/45/1 receiving. Tank Dell’s absence (knee) will just condense the targets around Collins and Schultz. In their last two games since the bye week, Collins leads the way in first-read targets (33%), with Schultz (21%) tied with Dell (21%) for second on the team. Rookie TE Cade Stover (illness) has missed the last two games, but he will return this week.
Sit ‘Em
C.J. Stroud – It has been a season to forget for Stroud. He hasn’t finished as a top-12 scoring QB in fantasy output since Week 5. In fact, he’s finished outside of the top 16 entirely in eight of his last 9 outings. Essentially, he’s been completely unusable in fantasy for the entire year.
Rashod Bateman – The definition of “better in best ball.”
John Metchie – Will return after missing one game with a shoulder injury. Metchie will need to take on a larger role to close out the season after the Texans have been cleaned out by season-ending injuries to Dell and Diggs.
Isaiah Likely
Robert Woods
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (TNF)
The Seahawks' slim playoff chances rely on this must-win here. They can’t look ahead, though. Seattle plays the Rams in L.A. in Week 18 to possibly determine the division.
Must Start
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Since Week 8, JSN is the WR3 in FPG (20.7). This trails only Ja’Marr Chase (27.5 FPG) and Puka Nacua (21.7) in this span. He’s earned 36% and 28% of Seattle’s targets over their last two games. The Bears allow 2.1 yards per route run to opposing slot receivers, which is second-most.
Start ‘Em
D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen – In their last six starts since the OC change to Thomas Brown in Week 11, this duo has finally broken out. Chicago has concentrated the targets around Allen (10.0 T/G) and Moore (9.3), and they’ve both smashed. Allen has 36/453/5 (18.6 FPG), while Moore has piled up 43/428/2 receiving (17.4 FPG) since Week 11. Moore is getting so many designed screens (4.0 per game) that it really boosts his floor in fantasy. Once again, they’re both borderline WR1 options. Seattle allows the sixth-most schedule-adjusted FPG above average (+4.7) to opposing wideouts over the last 10 weeks.
FLEX Plays
Ken Walker – Nursing an ankle injury. Zach Charbonnet (oblique/elbow) is beat up heading into the short week. Seattle used Walker as their clear lead back last Sunday, but he once again came up small despite the huge workload. Walker earned 18.8 expected PPR but scored only 13.9 actual points. If he’s able to suit up and play, Walker is a RB2/FLEX option. Chicago’s run defense is getting cracked 4.6 YPC (second-most) over the last 10 weeks.
D.K. Metcalf – Had 3/57/1 receiving last week, all in the first half. Once again, Metcalf was significantly behind JSN in targets. In their last 2 games together, JSN has earned 24 targets. Metcalf has just 10 looks. He remains a boom-or-bust WR3 FLEX. Since suffering a midseason knee injury that cost him two games, Metcalf is WR42 by FPG (10.7). Before the injury in Weeks 1-7, Metcalf was looking like a borderline WR1 with 35/568/3 receiving (15.4 FPG).
Stream’ Em
Caleb Williams – Over his last six starts since the OC change from Shane Waldron in Week 11, Williams is putting up a rock-solid 19.8 FPG (QB10 in span). At the very least, he’s on the board as a lower-end QB1 for the fantasy finals. Williams has cut back on the sacks and turnovers, and he’s been playing far more efficient ball lately. Over his last six games, Williams has completed 65% of his passes for a solid 7.0 YPA. From Weeks 1-10, Williams was among the league’s least efficient passers with a 60% completion rate and lowly 6.0 YPA. The Seahawks have allowed at least 2 passing TD in four straight games.
Sit ‘Em
D’Andre Swift – Over the last five games since he suffered a groin injury in Week 11, Swift has turned his 66 carries into 206 scoreless yards (3.1 YPC). He has just 10 receptions for 115 yards in this span. Roschon Johnson returned last week, but barely mixed in.
Zach Charbonnet – Played just 18% of the snaps in Week 16. Charbonnet is dealing with an elbow injury that limited him last week.
Geno Smith – SuperFlex only.
Rome Odunze
Tyler Lockett
Cole Kmet
Noah Fant
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (Saturday | 1p)
If the Chargers win on Saturday, they’re in as the likely #6 AFC wild card seed.
Must Start
Ladd McConkey – The Chargers are +7.6% more pass-heavy than expected over their last five games with McConkey, and the extra pass volume is fueling a late-season breakout for the shifty rookie. In this span, he’s been targeted a team-high 40 times and tallied up 32/468/1 receiving (16.9 PPR FPG ~WR11). This matchup will be a welcome change for McConkey. The Chargers just faced two very zone-heavy defenses over their last two games. Denver and Tampa Bay both deployed zones on at least 80% of their passing plays. This is a polar opposite spot because New England plays 40% man coverage. McConkey is absolutely shredding man coverages to the tune of 3.36 yards per route run. For reference, that's tied with CeeDee Lamb for sixth-best.
Start ‘Em
Justin Herbert – Right on the fringe of viability for 1-QB leagues. This is such a home run spot for McConkey. The strong matchup for his top wideout has Herbert back as a lower end QB1 after he’s spent the last few weeks on the sit list. Since Week 6, Herbert is QB15 in fantasy points per game (17.7), just fractions ahead of rookie Caleb Williams (17.7). The Patriots allow 0.43 passing FP per dropback, which is tied with the Falcons for the fifth-most.
FLEX Plays
Rhamondre Stevenson – Found the endzone last week, which saved his day for fantasy football. Stevenson has gone over 70 scrimmage yards in five out of his last 6 games, but his workload took a deep dent last week. Antonio Gibson out-snapped Stevenson by a 59% to 43% margin. It’s a concern. The Chargers are getting run on. Over the last 10 weeks, Los Angeles has allowed 4.5 YPC on zone-blocking concepts (fifth-most) and 5.2 YPC on gap concepts (also fifth-most). Stevenson is a FLEX for the fantasy finals.
Stream ‘Em
Drake Maye – Over his nine full starts, Maye is averaging 18.7 fantasy points per game (QB9). He’s putting up a solid 234.9 passing yards per start, which would easily lead the rookie QB crop by a distance over Daniels (220.2), Williams (218.1), and Nix (215.7). He’s available in 84% of Yahoo leagues. The Chargers are a stingy pass defense that relies heavily on two-high safety coverage to keep everything in front of them. Good news for Maye streamers – he’s averaging an efficient 0.53 fantasy points per dropback when facing 2-hi coverages. For reference, this is tied with Sam Darnold for eighth-best. Los Angeles plays the third-most two-high coverages (58%).
Hunter Henry – As always, Henry is on the board as a potential streaming option. He’s available in 50% of Yahoo leagues. At least he’s consistently involved. Henry has earned at least 17% of the Patriots targets in seven out of his last 8 games. The Chargers aren’t exactly the best spot to use tight ends in fantasy. They’ve allowed just one TD to a tight end all year – Mark Andrews back in Week 12.
Sit ‘Em
J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards – After missing the last four games with a knee injury, J.K. Dobbins’ return window opened this week, and he’s at Chargers’ practice. Los Angeles is likely to play it very safely with Dobbins after he’s suffered yet another leg injury. Gus Edwards is certain to mix in heavily after he randomly popped for his best game of the season last week (14/68/2 rushing).
Quinten Johnston – He’s scored eight touchdowns this season, but topped 50 yards just twice across 13 games.
Will Dissly – Returned to practice. Dissly has missed the last two games tending to a shoulder injury. We’ll see the Chargers go TE-by-committee with Dissly and Stone Smartt to close out the year.
Kayshon Boutte
Demario Douglas
Josh Palmer
Antonio Gibson
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (Saturday | 4:30p)
If the Broncos beat the Bengals, they’re in as the likely #7 seed AFC wild card seed. Cincinnati is favored by a FG. If they’re to make the playoffs, the Bengals need to win here and then have the Broncos lose again in Week 18 against the Chiefs. Kansas City could elect to rest some of their key starters in the season finale if they lock up the AFC #1 seed on Wednesday.
Must Start
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins – In their 10 games together, Chase has exploded for 71/1052/12 receiving (25.1 PPR FPG – WR1). Chase’s only legitimate competition for WR1 is Puka Nacua (21.7 FPG), and he’s still behind by over 3 FPG. Meanwhile, Higgins has balled out in his contract season, racking up 58/727/7 receiving (17.3 PPR FPG – WR9). You can’t possibly take him out of lineups, but Higgins is more likely than Chase to see Broncos CB Pat Surtain on Saturday afternoon. Chase moves around the formation and into the slot one-third of the time, which makes it nearly impossible for a single CB to travel with him. Surtain is only allowing 0.12 FP per route run in his coverage, which is the best mark in the league. However, he’s only one man. The rest of the Broncos secondary is getting shredded. Over the last 10 weeks, Denver is getting crushed for a league-high +6.6 schedule-adjusted FPG above average to receivers.
Joe Burrow – In his 10 starts with his top two wideouts, Burrow is putting up a league-winning 23.2 FPG. This effectively makes Burrow the QB3 in fantasy, behind only Lamar Jackson (25.8) and Josh Allen (24.3). The Bengals are the most pass-heavy team (+10.7% above expected) in a landslide over the Chiefs (+6.6%). As a result, Burrow leads all QBs in attempts, TDs, and yards. The Broncos have cut back on deploying man coverage immensely, and they just played zones on 81% of the Chargers dropbacks. I can’t imagine that they’ll want to test their weaker CBs against Burrow and these receivers with a bunch of man-to-man looks.
Chase Brown – Since the Bengals lost Zack Moss (neck) for the season, Brown is putting up 21.8 PPR FPG as the bell cow. Saquon Barkley (24.2) and Josh Jacobs (22.1) are the only running backs that are putting up more fantasy points per game since Week 9. Brown’s volume and TD upside is so strong that matchups don’t matter too much. Denver’s secondary – besides Surtain – isn’t playing well, but their run defense is holding strong. Over the last 10 weeks, the Broncos allow just 3.44 YPC (second-fewest).
Start ‘Em
Bo Nix – Over the last 10 weeks, Nix is QB9 by fantasy points per game (19.8). That’s just behind Sam Darnold (20.2 FPG). The only problem as of late is that Nix isn’t running as near as much as he once was earlier in the season. In fact, he’s averaging just 19.1 rushing yards per game and has one TD on the ground over his last nine starts. The Bengals allow 15.8 passing fantasy points per game (sixth-most), and they’re giving up a league-high 31.9 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. This game has clear shootout appeal with the second-highest over/under (50 points) on the slate.
Courtland Sutton – Since his random Week 7 goose egg vs. New Orleans, when he didn’t get a single target, Sutton has turned into one of the most consistent WR2 over his last eight games for 50/651/4 receiving (17.9 PPR FPG – WR12). The Bengals don’t trust their CBs, so they’re rolling their safeties back into a two-high look 58% of the time since Week 11. Why is that important? Well, Sutton averages 0.35 FP per route run vs. 2-hi. That’s significantly lower efficiency when compared to his stellar 0.52 FP/RR vs. 1-hi looks (Cover-1 man, Cover-3 zone).
Sit ‘Em
Jaleel McLaughlin, Javonte Williams, and Audric Estime – McLaughlin (quad) missed their Week 16 TNF game on the short week, but he returned to limited practice on Wednesday.
Devaughn Vele – He’s earned just 3% and 8% of the targets in their last two games since the bye week.
Mike Gesicki – Has just 21 receptions for 199 scoreless yards (4.1 FPG) in 10 games with Tee Higgins. He ran fewer routes (36% share) than Drew Sample (47%) last week.
Marvin Mims
Andrei Iosivas
Troy Franklin
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (Saturday | 8:15p)
The Rams control their own destiny in the NFC West. They’re a game ahead of the Seahawks for the division lead, and Los Angeles plays Seattle in Week 18. After starting 6-4, the Cardinals have completely collapsed. Arizona is 7-8 and mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. They’d love to play spoilers.
Must Start
Puka Nacua – In his eight full starts over the back half of the season, Nacua has exploded for 64/815/3 receiving (21.7 FPG – WR2). He’s earned a whopping 30 (!!) more targets than Kupp in this span. The gap just continues to widen. This entire passing game is built around Nacua. His 44% first-read target share leads all receivers over A.J Brown (43%) and Malik Nabers (42%). Nacua is averaging 0.37 targets per route run, leading all receivers in a landslide. Nacua can bust any tough matchup, but the Cardinals are particularly stingy. Over the last 10 weeks, only the Eagles (-7.9) are giving up fewer schedule adjusted FPG below average to opposing wideouts than the Cardinals (-5.8).
Kyren Williams – Williams has played at least 79% of the Rams snaps in 14-of-15 games. He’s just a TD machine with 30 total TDs across his 27 starts dating back to last year.
Start ‘Em
James Conner – Was limited in practice on Tuesday (knee). As long as he’s good to go, you’re playing Conner as a borderline Must Start RB1. His health is the only concern. Conner has cleared 120 scrimmage yards and has at least one TD in each of his last 3 games.
Trey McBride – Even though he still hasn’t scored a receiving TD yet this season, McBride is TE3 by FPG (13.9). It’s a bummer that his quarterback hasn’t played better. With a few more touchdowns, McBride could push Bowers and Kittle as the TE1. He’s coming off a season-worst 3/20 receiving last week because his QB melted down.
Kyler Murray – In two pristine matchups over the last two weeks vs. Patriots and Panthers, Murray has thrown for 224 and 202 yards. It’s not nearly good enough. At the very least, Murray ran more last week, adding 8/63/1 on the ground. He’ll need to use his legs all game long here because the Cardinals placed both of their starting tackles Paris Johnson and Jonah Williams on I.R. Murray is back on the board as a low end QB1.
FLEX Plays
Cooper Kupp – If you somehow overcame Kupp tanking your team in the quarter- and semi-final matchups, congrats! Kupp has earned just 11% and 16% of the Rams targets in each of his last two games, and it’s compounded by Los Angeles’ declining pass rate. By comparison, Nacua has earned 30% and 42% of the looks across Weeks 15-16. He has 37/430/5 receiving (13.8 FPG – WR25) in eight full games with Nacua. Kupp is WR2/FLEX for the fantasy football finals.
Marvin Harrison – If you somehow made it this far with Harrison weighing down your roster for the entire season, well… congrats! The rookie has been a nightmare for fantasy because his quarterback has not improved since early in his career. Harrison is merely WR42 by FPG (11.0)… and that's tied with Xavier Worthy. Lol. This is his third straight great matchup. Los Angeles is giving up the sixth-most schedule adjusted FPG above average (+4.1) to opposing wideouts over the last 10 weeks.
Sit ‘Em
Matthew Stafford – The Rams have morphed into one of the most run-heavy teams over the last month, throwing the ball at the second-lowest rate (-12% PROE) in this span. After he was averaging 35 pass attempts per game in Weeks 1-12, Stafford hasn’t topped 30 attempts in each of his last four outings. This is not a spot to use Stafford in 1-QB leagues. The Cardinals are limiting opposing quarterbacks to -1.9 schedule adjusted FPG below average over the last 10 weeks (sixth-fewest).
Blake Corum
Trey Benson – Missed Week 16 with an ankle injury. He returned to limited practice on Tuesday.
Michael Wilson
Demarcus Robinson
Tutu Atwell
Tyler Higbee – Scored a TD in his return from I.R. (knee) last week. However, he was still very limited. Higbee (22% route share) ran fewer routes than Parkinson (37%).
Sunday Games
The Sunday slate will be added soon. Refresh this page on Thursday. Merry Christmas!
