Super Bowl LIX Advanced Matchups

Welcome to a special Super Bowl edition of Advanced Matchups!

Using the Fantasy Points Data Suite, I’ll dig into team-level trends, coverage shells, individual matchups, and more to give you the most data-focused primer on the internet for the big game. I’ll also recommend player props so you can easily take advantage of my findings.

Matchups To Target

A.J. Brown vs. the Chiefs’ Saquon Barkley-focused gameplan

The Chiefs deployed two-high safety looks at a 61.1% rate across the regular season, the 2nd-highest in the NFL. But DC Steve Spagnuolo has never been shy about aggressively altering his typical game plan to claim a matchup advantage. He famously slowed down a surging 49ers’ offense with an atypically high rate of man coverage in last year’s Super Bowl, becoming a blueprint for teams around the league facing the 49ers this year.

To some extent, the blueprint has already been written for teams attempting to stop the Eagles. As an offense, they’ve faced the 2nd-highest rate of single-high looks (59.3%), with defenses often opting to keep as many men in the box as possible in hopes of stopping a deadly Saquon Barkley-led rushing attack. Other teams’ results have been mixed at best, but given Spagnuolo’s history of matchup awareness, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Chiefs take a more single-high-heavy approach.

This would especially open up one of the Eagles’ weapons through the air; A.J. Brown averaged an absurd 3.94 YPRR against single-high looks this year, trailing only Puka Nacua. Compared to when he faces two-high, that’s roughly a +77% boost to Brown’s per-route efficiency. On routes with 8 or more defenders in the box, Brown has averaged an even more insane 5.00 YPRR.

Speaking of explosive runs, Barkley has accumulated 41.6% of his rushing yards (3rd-most) on them this year. But I expect the Chiefs to succeed more than the rates in the tweet above would imply; they’ve allowed just a 2.9% explosive run rate and only 292 yards on those big plays across the regular season, both ranking 3rd-fewest in the NFL. For comparison, the Commanders had allowed the 10th-most explosive rushing yards — the Chiefs are an immensely tougher matchup on paper.

In truth, the best way to stop Barkley is to push the score early and force the Eagles to throw. He’s one of the most game script-sensitive backs in the league, averaging 3.03 rushing yards per snap (RB2), 6.19 YPC (RB1), and a 9.1% explosive run rate (RB1) while leading or tied. When the Eagles trail, those marks fall to 1.82 rushing yards per snap (RB12), 4.92 YPC (RB7), and a 2.9% explosive run rate (RB23).

If the Chiefs instead slow Barkley by forcing a negative game script, that would also give Brown a chance to shine. The Eagles have a rock-bottom 39.7% pass rate when leading by at least a score, but it jumps to 56.2% while trailing. And excluding a Week 9 game he left early, Brown averaged a league-high 44.1% first-read target share this season — he is nearly the team’s entire passing attack.

This is all a very long-winded way of saying that I believe there’s a strong chance the Chiefs limit Barkley, and that whatever way they manage to do so would create a golden opportunity for Brown. If that results in a come-from-behind Eagles victory, I believe the chances voters award Brown the Super Bowl MVP over Jalen Hurts is much higher than current odds imply. Of course, the most likely outcome of a neutered Barkley is instead an Eagles loss — for which one can easily hedge by also betting on Patrick Mahomes or the Chiefs’ money line.

Recommended Bet: A.J. Brown for Super Bowl MVP (DraftKings, +3500). Can cover for an Eagles loss with Patrick Mahomes for Super Bowl MVP (DraftKings, +120)

Noah Gray vs. the Eagles’ Cover 4 and Cover 6-Heavy Defense

In the regular season, the Eagles ran a combination of Cover 4 and Cover 6 at a league-high 36.9% rate. That rose even higher to 42.3% in the playoffs. Very broadly, these shells offer protection against the perimeter and deep ball while leaving vulnerabilities to play-action and in-breaking routes over the middle of the field.

This plays out in the Eagles’ defensive statistics as well; they’ve allowed 8.98 YPA against targeted crosser routes this season (11th-most), but they’ve been the single-toughest defense against all other routes, allowing just 6.37 YPA.

Noah Gray (2.28) leads the Chiefs in YPRR this year against Cover 4 + Cover 6 and boasts an impressive 3.30 YPRR and 30% TPRR on crosser routes. His overall route participation was limited in the AFC Championship due to the Chiefs running the ball more frequently from 12-personnel (a 56.3% 12-personnel rush rate).

However, the Chiefs threw out of 12 personnel at the 4th-highest rate across the regular season (62.7%), so that could easily swing back to normal in the Super Bowl. This along with the schematic matchup makes Gray an intriguing prop bet against lower lines, which I believe have more than priced in his recent decline in playing time.

Recommended Bet: Noah Gray over 1.5 receptions (FanDuel, +108)

DeVonta Smith vs. the Chiefs’ Slot-Funnel Defense

While I prefer Brown’s ability to pop off the screen and break open a game when making MVP bets, the on-paper matchup is more favorable to Smith. The Chiefs have been the NFL’s premier slot-funnel defense for the entirety of the season, allowing the highest target share (39.2%), the 2nd-most YPG (100.2), and the most first downs (83) to opposing receivers lining up in the slot. In contrast, they’ve allowed the lowest target share (34.8%) and the 2nd-fewest YPG (80.4) to the outside.

The Eagles’ top-3 receiving weapons (Brown, Smith, and Dallas Goedert) have played in only six games together this season, but across that sample, Smith has run a team-leading 55.7% of his routes from the slot. This also gives him the best CB matchup of any WR in the game. He hasn’t been particularly efficient from there (his YPRR falls from 2.92 when out wide to 1.81 in the slot), but the boost this matchup provides on those routes makes him a solid bet from a median outcome perspective.

Recommended Bet: DeVonta Smith over 50.5 receiving yards (Bet365, -110)

Matchups To Avoid

Jalen Hurts vs. the Chiefs’ Blitz

The Chiefs blitz at the NFL’s 7th-highest rate (31.6%). Jalen Hurts’ performance against blitzes this year is best described as “high-variance.” On the awful end, he’s averaged a 34.5% pressure-to-sack ratio when blitzed. That’s the 4th-worst rate in the NFL, better than only Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, and Will Levis.

Taking lots of sacks is obviously bad, but they haven’t impacted Hurts’ overall efficiency that much — by adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A, which penalizes for sacks and sack yards lost), Hurts ranks 12th-best against the blitz. And the key is that if you blitz but fail to get pressure on Hurts, he’ll make you pay; his 10.69 ANY/A on such dropbacks ranks 3rd-best. This is why I’m comfortable betting on his receivers despite my expectation that he takes a lot of sacks.

But conversely, Hurts’ ANY/A against the blitz when pressured actually turns negative (-0.02), ranking 28th among qualifying QBs. The Chiefs have generated pressure on nearly 40% of their blitzes — a top-10 rate — so I would expect Spagnuolo to make this gamble and blitz often. Especially if the Chiefs get out ahead early, Hurts could be constantly under siege.

Recommended Bet: Kansas City Chiefs to record the most sacks (DraftKings, +110)

Xavier Worthy vs. the Eagles’ Lockdown Screen Game Defense

Much of the Chiefs’ passing attack this season has been focused on the short game. They’ve averaged the 9th-most receiving YPG on shallow throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, but the 4th-fewest on deep throws of 20 or more yards downfield (27.2). Unfortunately for the Chiefs, the Eagles have excelled at stopping the short passing game in particular, allowing the fewest YPG on shallow throws (99.6) and the 2nd-fewest on screens (13.4).

This is troubling for Xavier Worthy, as 25.4% of his targets and 17.2% of his receiving yards have come on screens over his last 10 games. Despite that heavy designed usage, he averages just 52.2 receiving YPG over that sample — a good bit below where his line has crept up to on some books. And his role has taken a hit since Marquise Brown returned — Worthy’s 20% TPRR on non-screen targets across his last four games ranks well behind Brown (27%) and Travis Kelce (25%).

Taking unders isn’t necessarily “fun,” but the data backs this angle well.

Recommended Bet: Xavier Worthy under 58.5 receiving yards (DraftKings, -111)