The official start of the 2025 NFL season is quickly approaching. The league year and free agency will open at 4 p.m. on March 12. Teams will begin signing free agents, and any trades agreed to before the new league year will become official on that date.
Before the league year officially kicks off, there are a couple of other key dates to remember. Teams must designate franchise players by March 4. The NFL also has a legal negotiating window from March 10 to 12, during which teams can begin contacting and negotiating with the agents of unrestricted free agents. We’ll hear deals breaking during that window, even though they can’t become official until March 12.
It’s time to start breaking down the 2025 free agency class, including J.K. Dobbins, Javonte Williams, and Najee Harris at the running back position. This year’s free agents are loosely ordered based on talent, age, plus previous and expected future fantasy relevance. Be sure to follow Fantasy Points throughout free agency for in-depth breakdowns of every major (and minor) move. We’ll track every off-season transaction from a fantasy perspective through our “Free Agency Tracker” articles and Graham Barfield’s “Fantasy Fallout” pieces.
Be sure to check out the Free Agency Previews for Quarterbacks, Wide Receivers, and Tight Ends…This article is powered by Fantasy Points Data. Subscribe now to get our to take your research to the next level.
Unrestricted Free Agents
An unrestricted free agent is a player with four or more accrued seasons and an expired contract who is free to negotiate and sign with any team. The age for each player is the age he’ll turn in the 2024 calendar year.
Fantasy Starter
J.K. Dobbins (LAC, 27)
Brolley’s Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers
Dobbins suffered his second catastrophic leg injury in three years after rupturing his Achilles tendon just 30 snaps into his fourth season in 2023. He settled for a one-year, $1.6 million prove-it deal with the Chargers just before the NFL Draft last off-season, reuniting with Ravens play-caller Greg Roman. Dobbins demonstrated he still has plenty left in the tank by finishing second in Comeback Player of the Year voting in his first season playing double-digit games since his rookie year in 2020. Dobbins posted 195/905/9 rushing (4.6 YPC) and 32/153 receiving (4.8 YPR) on 38 targets (9.2% share) to finish as the RB18 with 14.8 FPG. He owned a 63.9% snap share and a 50.9% carry share and ran 187 routes (14.4 per game) in 13 contests — he missed four games for a knee injury.
Dobbins ranked 44th in stuff rate (53.8%) but 10th in yards off of explosive runs (296) among 46 RBs who logged 100+ carries. Dobbins owns a career 5.2 YPC average and a 50.3% success rate on only 429 carries, and he has the most upside in this year’s RB free agency class. Teams could still be hesitant to hand him anything more than a two-year deal because of his two catastrophic leg injuries from 2021-23. He should at least see a bump in pay and additional interest from teams after settling for a deal from the Chargers last off-season. He has the potential to be a high-end RB2 in the right situation if he can expand on his work in the passing game.
Aaron Jones (Min, 31)
Brolley’s Prediction: Minnesota Vikings
The Packers ended their seven-year relationship with Jones when they released him last March, and he needed less than 24 hours to find work with the rival Vikings. He ended 2023 with five straight games with 100+ rushing yards (postseason included) and remained one of the league’s more explosive backs despite the change of scenery in his first season in his 30s. He also played every game for the third time in his career, which helped him set career highs in rushing yards (1138) and carries (255). He’s averaged 4.5 YPC or better in each of his eight seasons, with a career average of 4.9 YPC.
Jones posted 255/1138/5 rushing (4.5 YPC) and 51/408/2 receiving (8.0 YPR) on 62 targets (10.8% share) to finish as the RB20 with 14.4 FPG. He owned a 63.7% snap share and a 55.8% carry share and ran 255 routes (15.0 per game) in 17 contests. He ranked 39th in TD rate (2%) but seventh in YACO (660) among 46 RBs who logged 100+ carries. The Vikings and Jones agreed to move the void date on his contract to the day before free agency begins, which indicates both sides would like to extend their relationship to 2026 and potentially beyond. He showed he could still be a mid-RB2 last season, but the concern is that his workload could be reduced after racking 322 touches in 18 games (postseason included) at 30 years old.
Najee Harris (Pit, 27)
Brolley’s Prediction: Las Vegas Raiders
The Steelers declined Harris’s fifth-year option last spring after selecting him 24th overall in 2021. He’s run for 1000+ yards and 6+ TDs in each of his first four seasons to open his career, but he needed 255+ attempts in each season to do it for an average of 3.9 YPC. Harris has been the NFL’s most durable running back since entering the league in 2021, which should help his market. He’s the only RB who didn’t miss a game from 2021-24 despite handing 1127 carries and 187 receptions in 71 total games (postseason included).
In 2024, Harris posted 263/1043/6 rushing (YPC) and 36/283 receiving (7.9 YPR) on 48 targets (9.2% share) to finish as the RB25 with 12.0 FPG. He owned a 51% snap share and a 49.3% carry share and ran 200 routes (11.8 per game) in 17 contests. He ranked 42nd in stuff rate (52.3%) among 46 RBs who logged 100+ carries, significantly worse than teammate Jaylen Warren at 41.7%. Harris will look for a multi-year contract on his first trip to free agency, and he should find some suitors to be a lead runner because of his punishing running style. He’ll be a low-end RB2 wherever he lands since he’s likely to lose passing-game work with his next team.
Rico Dowdle (Dal, 27)
Brolley’s Prediction: Denver Broncos
The Cowboys refused to add to their backfield last off-season, much to the detriment of the offense. They also resisted giving Dowdle a bigger role until they were out of contention in the second half of the season, despite him being the clear best option over Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield. He averaged 10.3 carries per game and topped 12 carries once in the first nine games before averaging 20.3 carries per game and topping 13+ carries in the final seven games. Dowdle more than doubled up his carries (274) and offensive snaps (636) in his fourth season compared to his combined touches (113) and snaps (266) through his first four seasons.
Dowdle posted 235/1079/2 rushing (4.6 YPC) and 39/249/3 receiving (6.4 YPR) on 49 targets (8.2% share) to finish as the RB24 with 12.5 FPG. He owned a 57.7% snap share and a 57.3% carry share and ran 233 routes (14.6 per game) in 16 contests. He ranked fifth in stuff rate (38.3%) but 44th in TD rate (.9%) among 46 RBs who logged 100+ carries. Dowdle doesn’t have a lot of pedigree as a three-star recruit to South Carolina and as a UDFA in 2020, which could hurt his market. He should still get a chance to compete for a starting job, depending on his landing spot in free agency.
Javonte Williams (Den, 25)
Brolley’s Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
Williams was once a second-round fantasy pick heading into his second year, but his career has moved in the wrong direction since he tore his ACL and LCL four games into the 2022 season. He averaged 4.4 YPC in his first 21 contests before dipping to 3.6 YPC in his last 33 games playing in Sean Payton’s committee backfields. Javonte completely lost Payton’s trust as the top runner, never reaching double-digit carries in the final nine games (postseason included) after hitting 11+ carries six times in his first nine contests.
Williams posted 139/513/4 rushing (3.7 YPC) and 52/346 receiving (6.7 YPR) on 70 targets (11.6% share) to finish as the RB37 with 9.4 FPG. He owned a 52.3% snap share and a 30.2% carry share and ran 265 routes (15.9 per game) in 17 contests. Williams ranked 42nd in YPC (3.69), 40th in explosive run rate (2.9%), and 43rd in YACO/ATT (2.03) among 46 RBs who logged 100+ carries. Williams’ career is trending in the wrong direction since he suffered his knee injury in 2022, and he could use a change of scenery after working under Payton for the last two seasons. He’s unlikely to be handed a starting job next season, but he should at least land in a spot where he can compete for a lead runner role.
Fantasy Relevant
Nick Chubb (Cle, 30)
Brolley’s Prediction: Dallas Cowboys
We listed Chubb as a “player to avoid” last off-season, and he inevitably struggled in his return from the catastrophic knee injury he suffered in 2023, which was the second major knee injury of his playing career. He was one of the most efficient RBs of all time through his first six seasons, averaging 5.3 YPC and 84.6 rushing YPG with a 48.4% success rate. He came nowhere close to maintaining his historic pace after sitting out the first six games of the season, and he eventually ceded work to Jerome Ford before suffering a season-ending ankle injury in Week 15.
Chubb posted 102/332/3 rushing (3.3 YPC) and 5/31/1 receiving (6.2 YPR) on 11 targets (2.9% share) to average 7.3 FPG. He owned a 40.3% snap share and a 55.2% carry share and ran 74 routes (9.3 per game) in eight contests. He ranked 45th in YPC (3.27), 43rd in explosive run rate (2%), and last in YACO/ATT (1.96) among 46 RBs who logged 100+ carries. In his last full season in 2022, Chubb ranked fifth in YPC (5.05), third in explosive run rate (7.6%), and third in YACO/ATT (3.52) among 42 RBs who logged 100+ carries. Chubb’s best days are behind him as he enters his 30s. Any team that signs him is hoping that he can regain some of his old form with another year removed from his 2023 knee injury. He’s unlikely to be handed a starting job in free agency, but he could be given a chance to compete for a lead runner spot.
Cam Akers (Min, 26)
Brolley’s Prediction: Minnesota Vikings
Akers made his second comeback from an Achilles injury in 2024 after previously doing it in 2022. He previously ruptured his right tendon in the first week of the 2021 season before tearing his left Achilles in the middle of the 2023 season. Akers played the first five games of 2024 with the Texans before the Vikings acquired him and a conditional 2026 seventh-round pick for a conditional 2026 sixth-round pick. Overall, Akers posted 104/444/2 rushing (4.3 YPC) and 14/68/3 receiving (4.9 YPR) on 18 targets (2.8% share) to average 6.3 FPG. He owned a 25.7% snap share and a 25.3% carry share and ran 107 routes (6.7 per game) in 16 contests. He ranked eighth in explosive run rate (6.7%) and sixth in YACO/ATT (2.75) but last in stuff rate (55.8%) among 46 RBs who logged 100+ carries. Akers played fairly well in his limited opportunities in his second return from an Achilles injury, which should earn him a chance to compete for a backup in training camp after he had to wait until late July to sign with Houston last year.
Kareem Hunt (KC, 30)
Hunt has failed to find work the last two off-seasons, but opportunities opened up early in the last two seasons on the only teams he’s played with during his NFL career. Nick Chubb suffered a season-ending knee injury two games into the 2023 season, which paved the way for Hunt to score 9 TDs next to Jerome Ford for the Browns. Isiah Pacheco then suffered a fractured fibula two games into the 2024 season, which opened the door for Hunt to be Kansas City’s top back the rest of the way, even after Pacheco returned to the lineup. Hunt posted 200/728/7 rushing (3.6 YPC) and 23/176 receiving (7.7 YPR) on 32 targets (5.7% share) to finish as the RB26 with 12.0 FPG. He owned a 51.9% snap share and a 56.5% carry share and ran 167 routes (12.8 per game) in 13 contests. He ranked 43rd in YPC (3.64), 45th in explosive run rate (1.5%), and 45th in stuff rate (55.4%) among 46 RBs who logged 100+ carries. The Chiefs could bring Hunt back as Pacheco insurance after his shaky return to the lineup last season. Hunt could follow a similar pattern from the last two off-seasons and wait on his couch for a major injury to strike a backfield.
Raheem Mostert (Mia, 33)
Mostert went from posting his first 1000-yard rushing campaign and leading the league with 18 rushing TDs in 2023 to barely garnering touches in the second half of 2024. The Dolphins released Mostert in mid-February to save $2.9 million, with De’Von Achane and Jaylen Wright positioned to lead the backfield for at least the next two seasons. Mostert posted 85/278/2 rushing (3.3 YPC) and 19/161 receiving (8.5 YPR) on 23 targets (4.7% share) to average 5.6 FPG. He owned a 32% snap share and a 24.5% carry share and ran 120 routes (9.3 per game) in 13 contests — he missed four games for chest and hip injuries. Mostert had plenty left in the tank just two seasons ago, so a team could give him a chance to latch on as a change-of-pace option, but there’s also a chance he’s played his last football.
Alexander Mattison (LV, 27)
The Vikings released Mattison last off-season to save $3.35 million against the cap just one year into the two-year, $7 million deal. The Raiders signed him as insurance behind Zamir White, and he eventually vaulted ahead of the ineffective third-year RB. Mattison was nearly as ineffective as White, which opened the door for Ameer Abdullah to steal work. Mattison posted 132/420/4 rushing (3.2 YPC) and 36/294/1 receiving (8.2 YPR) on 48 targets (9% share) to finish as the RB33 with 9.9 FPG. He owned a 47.7% snap share and a 42% carry share and ran 192 routes (13.7 per game) in 14 contests. He ranked last in YPC (3.18), 42nd in explosive run rate (2.3%), and 41st in YACO/ATT (2.07) among 46 RBs who logged 100+ carries. Mattison has been ineffective as a starter the last two seasons, and he’ll have to compete for a backup job wherever he lands.
Elijah Mitchell (SF, 27)
Mitchell entered training camp as the favorite to be the backup to Christian McCaffrey, which was a familiar spot for him in 2022-23 when he wasn’t dealing with an injury. Mitchell started to feel the heat from Jordan Mason behind him before he suffered a season-ending hamstring injury before the start of the season. He likely won’t fit into San Francisco’s plans at the position with Mason and rookie Isaac Guerendo emerging in 2024 with CMC and Mitchell mostly out of the picture. Mitchell is unlikely to have a massive market because he’s played in just 27 of a possible 68 games (39.7%) since entering the league. He’s been effective in Kyle Shanahan’s scheme when available, posting a 52.3% success rate and averaging 4.7 YPC on 327 career carries. Teams with ties to Shanahan, like the Commanders, Dolphins, or Texans, could look to sign Mitchell and give him a chance to compete for a backup spot.
Kenneth Gainwell (Phi, 26)
Gainwell had a cushy gig as the passing-down back behind the Offensive Player of the Year Saquon Barkley. He took on more special teams responsibilities in his fourth season, including as a kick returner with career highs in returns (18) and return yards (456). Gainwell posted 75/290/1 rushing and 16/116 receiving (7.3 YPR) on 22 targets (4.9% share) to average 3.7 FPG. He owned a 25.8% snap share and a 12.1% carry share and ran 106 routes (6.2 per game) in 17 contests. Gainwell has been utilized by several offensive coordinators in Philadelphia, and the Eagles are likely to be the team that values him the most in free agency. Gainwell could still look for a bigger role elsewhere in his first trip to free agency, especially if it comes with a pay increase.
Ty Johnson (Buf, 28)
Johnson is coming off his best season since 2021 as the annoying second back in Buffalo’s three-man backfield. He operated as the team’s passing/hurry-up back next to James Cook and rookie Ray Davis. Johnson posted 41/213/1 rushing (5.2 YPC) and 18/284/3 receiving (15.8 YPR) on 25 targets (4.8% share) to average 5.4 FPG. He owned a 27.9% snap share and an 8.4% carry share and ran 180 routes (10.6 per game) in 17 contests. The Bills turned to Davis as the lead runner in the lone game that Cook missed last season, with Johnson staying in his typical role. Johnson has carved out a career as a passing-down bac,k and he could return to Buffalo if the Bills don’t want Cook and Davis to work too much in passing situations.
Khalil Herbert (Cin, 27)
Herbert hits free agency off of his worst season as a pro, logging just 139 snaps in 14 appearances between the Bears and Bengals. Chicago made him a healthy scratch twice right before they traded him to Cincinnati. He then failed to find many opportunities behind Chase Brown, despite Zack Moss being out of the picture for a season-ending neck injury. Herbert posted 28/114 rushing (4.1 YPC) and 8/21 receiving (2.6 YPR) on 9 targets (2.1% share) to average 2.4 FPG. He owned a 15.3% snap share and an 11.5% carry share and ran 60 routes (4.6 per game) in 13 contests. Most of his production came in the season finale against the Steelers when Brown missed for an ankle injury. He finished with 20/69 rushing and 7/14 receiving for 3.1 yards per touch. Herbert’s career has trended in the wrong direction since he averaged 5.7 YPC during his breakout second season in 2022. He’ll find a limited market in free agency, and he’ll battle for a backup job in training camp.
Ameer Abdullah (LV, 32)
Abdullah made his living as a special teams player in his first two seasons with the Raiders, playing more than half of their special teams snaps. He more than doubled his offensive snaps from his first two seasons (391) in 2024 (410) out of necessity, but he was more effective than Zamir White and Alexander Mattison. Abdullah posted 66/311/2 rushing (4.7 YPC) and 40/261/3 receiving (6.5 YPR) on 47 targets (7.7% share) to finish as the RB38 with 9.0 FPG. He owned a 38.2% snap share and a 17.9% carry share and ran 241 routes (15.1 per game) in 16 contests. He finished with his most scrimmage yards (572) and touchdowns (5) since his posted 714/5 scrimmage in his third NFL season with the Lions in 2017. His stock has risen after last season, and he should land another short-term deal since he’s been a valuable contributor on special teams and as a passing back.
