2024 Week 3 DFS Early Look

Week 2 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, meaning Week 3 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 3 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 3 DFS.

Derek Carr, QB, New Orleans Saints (VS. PHI)

DraftKings: $5,800 (QB12) | FanDuel: $7,900 (QB7)

The Saints are averaging 45.5 points per game, +11.0 more PPG than the next-closest team. Over the past 5 seasons, the QB of the league’s highest-scoring team has finished no worse than QB8 by FPG – collectively averaging 23.7 FPG. To put that in perspective, 23.7 FPG would have led all QBs last season.

Of course, Derek Carr isn’t nearly as talented as some of the QBs who led those high-powered offenses like Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes – but he doesn’t need to be to smash for fantasy.

Play action and pre-snap motion have long been two of the biggest cheat codes in the NFL – and New Orleans is utilizing both at top-3 rates. Carr is effectively playing offense on easy mode, and he’s averaging an absurd 1.12 FP/DB as a result. The best-ever season for fantasy points per dropback was 0.91 by Lamar Jackson in 2019. If Carr can maintain even 80% of this efficiency moving forward, he will finish as a mid-range QB1, making him a steal in DFS priced as the QB12 on the Week 3 main slate.

Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings (VS. HOU)

DraftKings: $5,500 (QB18) | FanDuel: $7,100 (QB17)

Darnold is the QB8 on this slate by DraftKings FPG (18.3), and he ranks 3rd among all QBs in YPA (9.5), 7th in passer rating (111.8), and 6th in fantasy points per dropback (0.69). Those numbers make his mid-range QB2 salary look like a clear pricing error, especially in another game where Minnesota will likely be forced to throw as a 2.0-point underdog against Houston.

I wouldn’t consider this a favorable matchup (although Houston’s defensive stats are buoyed by softer passing matchups against Caleb Williams and Anthony Richardson) – but I would consider Darnold a screaming value and an exciting tournament play on a slate where most of those paying down at QB would likely rather grab Derek Carr.

De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins (VS. SEA)

DraftKings: $7,000 (RB6) | FanDuel: $7,700 (RB9)

No player has earned better usage through 2 weeks than Achane – who leads all RBs in XFP/G (23.4), ranks 3rd in DraftKings FPG (29.3), and 4th in target share (18%).

Of course, this team losing Tua Tagovailoa massively hurts the short-term upside of this offense, but volume could improve for Achane with Skylar Thompson at QB…

Thompson's career RB target rate (27%) is higher than any Week 1 NFL starter and +42% higher than Tua Tagovailoa's (19%). Achane – who is already tied for the positional lead in targets (14) – could see even more passing game volume with the QB change combined with likely negative script (Seattle is a 5.5-point favorite). Even if volume stays relatively flat, Achane is still underpriced; he’s the most efficient runner in NFL history with an elite workload.

Jordan Mason, RB, San Francisco 49ers (@ LAR)

DraftKings: $6,200 (RB14) | FanDuel: $8,300 (RB4)

I’m not sure why DraftKings is inviting ~50% ownership on Mason for the 2nd week in a row, but here we are. Mason is currently 4th among RBs in snap share (81%), 2nd in carry share (76%), 8th in route share (56%), and 8th in DraftKings FPG (21.3). He’s one of the week’s most glaring values priced as the RB14 on DraftKings.

The Rams have allowed the 2nd-most PPG thus far (33.5), and their run defense doesn’t look much better. Los Angeles has allowed the 3rd-highest YPC (5.6), the 5th-most yards before contact per attempt (2.3), and the 4th-most FPG (30.2) to opposing RBs. And with San Francisco favored by 7.5 points, Mason should avoid any issues with potential negative gamescript (just 2 targets this season). Or, you could argue that he can still get there in negative script — he’s dominating backfield routes, and short-area target Deebo Samuel is likely out a “couple of weeks.” Mason is a great play again this week, and I expect his tournament ownership to reflect that.

Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks (VS. MIA)

DraftKings: $6,000 (RB17) | FanDuel: $6,700 (RB19)

Charbonnet led all Week 2 RBs in snap share (99%, next-closest was 84%), and ranked 2nd in route share (63%), 10th in XFP (16.9), and 10th in DraftKings fantasy points (17.9).

This amount of playing time is legitimately rare and incredible for fantasy; snap share is one of the stickiest and most predictive stats at the RB position, and there were only four instances during the 2023 regular season where a RB produced a higher single-game snap share than what we just saw from Charbonnet.

If we assume the Kenneth Walker absence extends into Week 3, Charbonnet will be one of the slate’s best values – especially as a 5.5-point favorite against a Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins team.

Chris Olave, WR New Orleans Saints (VS. PHI)

DraftKings: $6,300 (WR19) | FanDuel: $6,700 (WR19)

Olave earned the 5th-best target share of Week 2 (38%) and was 1 yard away from his first TD of the year. Of course, box score watchers were still disappointed, as Olave barely managed a dozen fantasy points.

Olave could be considered one of the 2024 season’s biggest disappointments through two weeks; despite playing on the league’s best offense by PPG, he’s the WR53 by DraftKings FPG (8.0, less than Jalen Tolbert and Gabe Davis).

But that’s exactly why I want to buy low on Olave in DFS this week. Over the past three seasons, the top pass catcher on the league’s highest-scoring offense has averaged 20.0 DraftKings FPG, which would have ranked 6th-best throughout the 2023 season.

Olave is an elite separator and an elite target earner (20th-most targets of any player through his first two seasons in NFL history). We have to assume his talent will translate to massive fantasy scores if the Saints are the new greatest show on turf.

Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns (VS. NYG)

DraftKings: $6,100 (WR23) | FanDuel: $6,000 (WR35)

Cooper is among the most glaring ‘buy-lows’ in fantasy football; he’s 11th among WRs in XFP/G (16.3), but the WR82 by FPG (3.9).

I understand the concerns over Deshaun Watson looking completely washed (he’s 29th in passer rating), but Cleveland’s passing attack could have a much easier time against a relatively weak New York Giants’ pass defense…

New York has allowed the 5th-highest YPA (8.2), the 6th-highest passer rating (105.5), and the 4th-highest completion percentage over expectation (+8.8%), despite facing Sam Darnold and Jayden Daniels. If this passing attack can get it together, this could be a smash spot for Cooper – who is a clear value on both sites, but especially FanDuel.

Demarcus Robinson, WR, Los Angeles Rams (VS. SF)

DraftKings: $5,000 (WR40) | FanDuel: $6,100 (WR32)

Every Rams pass catcher will pop as a value in Week 3, with Cooper Kupp (high ankle) likely to miss time and Puka Nacua on IR. And I’m tentatively ready to call Robinson the team’s WR1 for as long as both players are out – his 5.5 targets per game in 2023 and 18% TPRR over his last 5 games lead the remaining healthy starters on this roster. Regardless of what you think of Robinson’s overall ability, he’s the best at earning targets of the guys still standing.

This is an incredibly valuable offense to earn targets in – the Rams ranked 3rd in WR fantasy points last season and are top-2 in 2024. We can’t expect them to be as productive without their two best receivers, but we can expect Robinson to see far better volume than his salary implies as a 7.5-point underdog to San Francisco.

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders (VS. CAR)

DraftKings: $5,400 (TE5) | FanDuel: $6,300 (TE6)

Bowers has the usage profile of a truly elite TE1. Through 2 weeks, Bowers is 2nd in first-read target share (27%), 2nd in XFP/G (13.0), and 3rd in fantasy points per route (0.60) among TEs. He leads all TEs in receiving YPG (78.0), and he’s the most efficient player in Las Vegas by any per-route metric you want to use.

Bowers’ price hasn’t quite caught up to his top-3 positional usage and production, and – as is usually the case for rookies – his workload should only go up as the season progresses. Remember – he was one of the greatest TE prospects of all time.

The potential that Las Vegas could blow the doors off Carolina (the Raiders are favored by 5.0 points) is the only thing that makes me hesitant about Bowers this week, but I feel comfortable trusting this talent and usage profile at a mid-range TE1 price tag.