2024 Week 2 DFS Early Look

Week 1 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, and that means Week 2 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 2 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 2 DFS.

Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts (@ GB)

DraftKings: $6,800 (QB3) | FanDuel: $8,500 (QB3)

Richardson posted the lowest adjusted completion percentage (50%) of the week, completing four fewer passes than the next-closest Week 1 starter. Just 9 completions total – and despite missing AD Mitchell on two different TD throws during that game, Richardson still managed to finish as the QB4 on the week – scoring 26.1 fantasy points.

Richardson is so good that a borderline league-worst passing performance still led to him being a top-5 fantasy QB.

I’ve spent thousands of words discussing how we want to play Richardson in DFS until he is a comparable price to Lamar Jackson, and Richardson is still $900 cheaper on DraftKings this week. The game environment in Green Bay doesn’t project for fireworks, with Jordan Love likely out – but Richardson is one of the best fantasy scorers we’ve ever seen at QB, and he’s still too cheap.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (VS. NYG)

DraftKings: $6,200 (QB9) | FanDuel: $7,900 (QB6)

We knew Daniels' rushing potential was massive going into the season, and he proved that in Week 1. Daniels’ 7 scrambles and 9 designed carries were the 2nd-most and 4th-most by any passer – and it resulted in the 3rd-most QB fantasy points of the week (28.2).

Sure, this team isn’t pushing the ball downfield (Daniels finished the 3rd-lowest aDOT of the week), but a QB earning double-digit carries is exceedingly rare and legitimately incredible for fantasy. Last season, the top 3 QBs by rushing FPG (Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson) were also the top 3 QBs by FPG. If Daniels continues to see this rushing usage, he won’t need to be a particularly effective passer to finish as a high-end QB1.

For Week 2, Daniels draws a New York Giants pass defense that ranked bottom-8 in Mike Clay’s preseason defensive unit rankings and just gave up the week’s 2nd-highest PFF passing grade to Sam Darnold (86.2). Even if New York manages to fix its pass defense, Daniels can still post a top-5 QB fantasy score on rushing production alone.

Kyren Williams. RB, Los Angeles Rams (@ ARI)

DraftKings: $6,800 (RB7) | FanDuel: $8,000 (RB5)

We all assumed Williams would be sharing the Rams backfield with Blake Corum, but you know what happens when you assume. Corum didn’t log an offensive snap, and Williams ranked 2nd among RBs in snap share (90%), 1st in route share (74%), and 5th in XFP (19.8).

If Williams is in the same role as last season, then his price should be roughly the same as in Week 17 of last season – $8,300. Williams is just 82% of that price in Week 2, and he draws Arizona in the 2nd-highest total game of the week (50.0). Sometimes, DFS is as simple as playing the obviously mispriced RB in one of the slate’s best game environments.

Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns (@ JAX)

DraftKings: $5,900 (RB17) | FanDuel: $6,300 (RB22)

Ford ranked 7th in snap share (72%), 10th in carry share (63%), 9th in target share (15%), and 3rd in XFP (20.8) among Week 1 RBs.

This Browns offense might be a disaster – but every RB who earned at least 70% of his team’s snaps last year averaged over 15.5 XFP/G. 15.5 XFP/G would have matched Travis Etienne as the RB10 in terms of usage, which means Ford’s floor as a low-end RB1 is secure for as long as he can maintain this level of playing time.

Nick Chubb won’t be back anytime soon, cementing Ford as one of the best values of the Week 2 main slate in a game where he may get peppered with targets as a 3.5-point underdog.

Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (@ DEN)

DraftKings: $5,500 (RB27) | FanDuel: $6,600 (RB19)

Harris earned 22 opportunities on Sunday, compared to just 4 from Jaylen Warren. Remember that Harris only exceeded 20 opportunities in 12% of his games last season.

Arthur Smith wants to run the ball, and Harris looks like his workhorse.

We might not care about Harris as a workhorse in a gross offense most weeks, given the risks of offensive ineptitude or game flow rendering the rushing attack unusable.

But Week 2 isn’t most weeks – Pittsburgh is favored by 3.0 points against a Denver defense that just gave up the 4th-most fantasy points and 8th-most rushing yards to opposing RBs in Week 1.

This is a near-perfect setup for Harris, who is $400 cheaper than the next-closest RB to earn at least 16 touches in Week 1 (Jerome Ford).

Cooper Kupp, WR Los Angeles Rams (@ ARI)

DraftKings: $7,600 (WR5) | FanDuel: $7,700 (WR8)

Puka Nacua is on IR, which leaves Kupp as the clear WR1 in last year’s 3rd-most productive fantasy offense for WRs. On Sunday night, we saw Nacua leave early due to injury, and Kupp earned a truly absurd 58% first-read target share thanks to 21 total targets.

There were only 8 instances of a player exceeding a 58% first-read target share last season, and 21 targets is the 11th-most in a single game in NFL history. That usage isn’t sustainable, but it helps emphasize that Kupp’s role without Nacua is as good as any WR in the NFL.

Kupp faces an Arizona defense in Week 2 that ranked as the single-worst defense in Mike Clay’s preseason projections and just gave up the 10th-most receiving yards (232) in Week 1. He’s an awesome play at this price point for as long as Nacua isn’t fully healthy.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (VS. CIN)

DraftKings: $6,700 (WR12) | FanDuel: $6,900 (WR14)

Rice looked great in Week 1, posting the 5th-highest first-read target share of the week (38%), and recording the 2nd-most YAC (73), behind only Tyreek Hill.

Rice will be one of the dominant fantasy assets in the NFL if he continues to monopolize first-read looks in Kansas City. Rice averaged 18.9 DraftKings FPG in his final four regular-season games last season while he led Kansas City in first-read target share (29%). 18.9 DraftKings FPG would have ranked 5th-best among main slate eligible WRs last season, yet Rice is priced as the slate’s WR12.

The game environment is the cherry on top here – this game offers the 3rd-highest total (48.0) of the main slate. Even after Cincinnati's brutal offensive outing last week, we know they are among the few teams that can push Kansas City to a ceiling fantasy performance. Rice will remain a screaming DFS value until he’s at least $7,800 on DraftKings.

Andrei Iosivas, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (@ KC)

DraftKings: $3,800 (WR68) | FanDuel: $5,200 (WR57)

Tee Higgins looks very questionable for Week 2, leaving the door open for Iosivas to function again as Cincinnati’s WR2. On Sunday, Iosivas earned the 4th-highest route share (94%) of any WR, earning a 21% target share and 25% of the Bengals’ air yards.

Iosivas is the single-cheapest WR on the Week 2 main slate to earn at least a 20% target share and 80% route share in Week 1. And it isn’t close – the next-closest player in price to hit those numbers is Calvin Ridley ($5,800), who is nearly $2,000 more expensive. Assuming Higgins sits, Iosivas will be one of the cheapest bets on WR volume in Week 2.

Colby Parkinson, TE, Los Angeles Rams (@ ARI)

DraftKings: $3,100 (TE27) | FanDuel: $4,800 (TE26)

Parkinson led all Week 1 TEs in route participation (86%) and ranked top-16 in XFP (6.5) in his debut game for the Rams. Chasing a 5-target performance is never ideal, but Parkinson's rock-bottom TE27 price tag on DraftKings more than makes up for any volume concerns. With Puka Nacua out, we will want to target every Rams pass catcher in a full-time role, and Parkinson is no exception.

And the matchup here is pretty encouraging – Arizona was the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (+5.4 FPG) after Week 12 last season, and preseason defensive rankings didn’t suggest significant improvement. Beyond that, the main reason we want to play Parkinson is for the salary savings he enables; the expensive TEs are off to a poor start for fantasy football purposes, and Parkinson allows us to spend up at more exciting positions.