2024 Week 16 DFS Early Look

Week 15 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, meaning Week 16 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 16 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 16 DFS:

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (VS. CLE)

DraftKings: $7,500 (QB3) | FanDuel: $8,300 (QB3)

The Bengals vs. Browns game is shaping up as the premier DFS game stack of the slate, offering a total that’s +2.5 points higher than the next-closest slate-eligible game. And we know Burrow is playing out of his mind. He is averaging 26.7 DraftKings FPG since Week 10 – a mark that would lead all slate-eligible QBs over the full season.

Burrow hasn’t scored more than 20.0 DraftKings points against Cleveland since 2020, but he does have a great schematic matchup here. He averages the 6th-most FP/DB (0.56) and the 4th-most FPG (10.2) against single-high defenses this season, which Cleveland runs at the league’s 2nd-highest rate (65%). The Bengals are still fighting for a playoff spot (6% playoff probability), so I expect them to remain hyper-aggressive here regardless of who Cleveland trots out at QB. But if we get Jameis Winston on the other side of this game, there will be some fireworks.

Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts (VS. TEN)

DraftKings: $5,400 (QB16) | FanDuel: $7,400 (QB11)

There aren’t any great matchup notes that favor Richardson this week, and the game total here is just 42.5 – but he’s always a player I’m going to have some interest in for GPPs.

Richardson has scored over 27.0 DraftKings points in 27% of his fully healthy games. Despite playing just nine full games this season, Richardson (2) has more games over 27.0 DraftKings points than Matthew Stafford, Jordan Love, and Sam Darnold – all more expensive QBs in Week 16. Really, I just want exposure every week in tournaments to the greatest athlete to ever play the position.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions (@ CHI)

DraftKings: $7,500 (RB3) | FanDuel: $8,300 (RB6)

David Montgomery is out for the year, leaving Gibbs to man the most valuable backfield in fantasy. And we really can’t understate just how valuable this role is for Gibbs. Gibbs was fantasy’s RB4 by FPG (19.4) while locked in a 50/50 committee with Montgomery. If Gibbs claimed just 60% of backfield XFP and maintained his current efficiency, he would average 23.8 DraftKings FPG (RB2 over the full season). If he earned 70% of backfield XFP, he would average 27.6 DraftKings FPG – the most by any RB since 2019 Christian McCaffrey. And if we ascribe him much more than that, we start getting into truly mythical (30-plus DraftKings FPG) territory.

When the usage and player talent is this good, I don’t find myself caring about matchup or game environment. But both of those do align for Gibbs; The Lions are favored by 6.5 points and the Bears rank as the 5th-softest schedule-adjusted rushing matchup since Week 9 (+2.2 rushing FPG). Gibbs is one of the best RB plays we’ve seen all year.

James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals (@ CAR)

DraftKings: $7,100 (RB7) | FanDuel: $8,400 (RB5)

Conner makes for an easy click in Week 16 – he’s coming off the best usage of any RB in the NFL (25.0 XFP) in Week 15, and he draws the best possible matchup. The Panthers rank as the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+4.7 FPG), allowing a league-leading 173.0 rushing YPG and a league-worst 5.0 YPC. The Cardinals are 4.0-point favorites in this contest, and Conner has seen his FPG jump +19% in wins since 2022.

Everything is lining up for Conner in this spot, and I expect him to be one of the week’s highest-owned RBs as a result.

Isaac Guerendo, RB, San Francisco 49ers (@ MIA)

DraftKings: $6,700 (RB11) | FanDuel: $7,700 (RB11)

Guerendo should have a big game soon. He appears to be the only RB San Francisco really wants on the field, claiming a 77% snap share and 100% of backfield XFP in Week 15, while RB2 Patrick Taylor played on just 2 snaps.

And the talent is there – Guerendo ranks 5th among all RBs (min. 50 carries) in YPC (5.2) and 2nd in explosive run rate (8.2%). If he’s earning every backfield touch in a RB room worth 21.2 FPG, then he’s probably too cheap as a low-end RB1 on DraftKings. I worry a bit about his pass-catching upside (Jordan Mason was among the least targeted RBs in football during his time as the 49ers starter), so my favorite way to play Guerendo this week is with the 49ers defense.

Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns (@ CIN)

DraftKings: $5,600 (RB22) | FanDuel: $6,600 (RB22)

Nick Chubb suffered a broken foot on Sunday, which opens the door to a potential bellcow workload for Jerome Ford. Chubb exited the game with about 10 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter, and Ford handled every backfield touch and 86% of snaps from that point.

Of course, D’Onta Foreman will be called up from the practice squad to help fill the void, which means returning to a similar backfield rotation that we saw earlier in the year. Without Chubb, Ford averaged a 64% snap share and earned 65% of backfield XFP, while Cleveland trailed. That’s a crucial note – the Browns are 7.0-point underdogs and it’s easy to see things getting out of hand early against one of the league’s best offenses in the Cincinnati Bengals. There is still some risk if Cleveland is able to maintain a lead here, but I’m still happy to play Ford in tournaments, given his very reasonable price tag and projected workload while the Browns trail.

Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams (@ NYJ)

DraftKings: $6,500 (WR12) | FanDuel: $8,300 (WR9)

Kupp is sitting at his lowest DraftKings price since Week 2 of 2021, and that’s despite scoring over 20.0 DraftKings points in four of his last six games. Of course, Puka Nacua is earning better target volume, and Kupp is on the wrong side of 30, so I get the late-season trepidation. But if there was ever a spot to play Kupp, this feels like it.

The Jets rank as the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (+6.2 FPG) since Week 9, but as a neutral matchup for opposing outside WRs over that same stretch (+0.7 FPG). That should funnel volume to Kupp, and the 46.5 game total (the 3rd-highest on the slate), along with Aaron Rodgers’ recent stretch of quality play, suggest serious shootout potential. And I certainly want exposure to a historically cheap Cooper Kupp if this game turns into a shootout.

Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants (@ ATL)

DraftKings: $6,100 (WR16) | FanDuel: $8,200 (WR10)

Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito are both dealing with injuries, which may lead to Tim Boyle quarterbacking the New York Giants offense in Week 16. Boyle can still get Nabers his fantasy points; in just one half of work on Sunday with Boyle, Nabers turned 8 targets into 16.3 DraftKings points.

Regardless of who plays QB, Nabers is way too cheap at $6,100 on DraftKings. Nabers leads all players at all positions in XFP/G. Even if we just look at the last five weeks, Nabers is the WR2 by XFP/G (21.0), and his 17.5 DraftKings FPG over that stretch would rank 8th-best among slate-eligible WRs over the full season.

Now he’s a 10-point underdog against Atlanta, who ranks as the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs since Week 9 (+7.7 FPG). The volume and matchup for Nabers should be elite in a game where New York will need to throw early and often. I expect him to pop as a projected value this week.

Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ LV)

DraftKings: $3,500 (TE15) | FanDuel: $5,200 (TE12)

Evan Engram is out for the year, and Strange just led all TEs in XFP (21.8) in Week 15. He finished the week with a 78% route share, 12 first-read targets, and 18.3 DraftKings points. It’s incredibly rare to see that kind of usage from a punt TE; there are only four instances of any TE earning 12 or more first-read targets in a game this season.

For Week 16, he draws a Raiders defense that ranks as the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs since Week 9 (+6.1 FPG). Even if his usage doesn’t stick, the salary savings we get from rostering a player like Strange enable us to pay up for the starts of the slate.