Week 14 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, meaning Week 15 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 15 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.
Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 15 DFS:
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (@ DET)
DraftKings: $8,500 (QB1) | FanDuel: $9,500 (QB1)
I’m never one to pay up at QB, but it’s relatively easy to justify it with Allen this week. He’s coming off the first 50-point QB fantasy performance since Michael Vick in 2010, and he’s playing in the highest total game of the season (54.0).
Overall, Allen has averaged an absurd 31.7 DraftKings FPG in his 16 career games with a projected total over 52.0. In fact, that would rank as the greatest QB fantasy season of all time if treated as a single season – surpassing 2019 Lamar Jackson (29.4 DraftKings FPG).
The matchup is a slight negative on paper (although the Lions have notably struggled against rushing QBs), and Allen’s price is among the highest we’ve seen from a QB this season – so I understand the urge to fade him for cheaper options. But as we saw in Week 14, sometimes we can just play the MVP-caliber QB in the highest total game of the slate.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (VS. TB)
DraftKings: $5,900 (QB13) | FanDuel: $7,500 (QB12)
Hebert draws an incredible matchup this week. Tampa Bay ranks as the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+5.3 FPG), allowing the 4th-most passing YPG (271.5) and the 10th-most passing TDs (21). Tampa Bay also offers an offense that can push Los Angeles – Herbert’s highest-scoring game of the season came in a 7-point win against Cincinnati in what was the Chargers’ highest-scoring game of the season (61 total points). I’m eager to play Herbert, but I’m probably only doing it in full-blown game stacks, as it’s hard to see Herbert hitting his ceiling without the Chargers being pushed by Tampa Bay.
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens (@ NYG)
DraftKings: $8,300 (RB2) | FanDuel: $9,200 (RB2)
It’s been over a month since we’ve seen a slate-wrecking score from Henry – but Week 15 sets up remarkably well for the veteran RB. The Ravens are 14.5-point favorites, and New York ranks as the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted rush defense for opposing RBs (+2.3 rushing FPG), allowing a league-leading 2.68 yards after contact per attempt.
Henry has five games of 28.2 or more DraftKings points. The Ravens were favored in all of those games, winning all contests by an average of 15.2 points. We’ve known this for years, but Henry needs positive gamescript to reach his full fantasy potential, and he should have nothing but positive gamescript as a massive favorite against New York.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions (VS. BUF)
DraftKings: $7,500 (RB6) | FanDuel: $8,000 (RB10)
Gibbs has been awesome this year. Despite being locked in a 50/50 committee with David Montgomery, he’s still the RB5 on this slate by DraftKings FPG (18.8). And now he draws a great matchup in the highest-total game (54.0) of the season.
Buffalo ranks as the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+4.5 FPG), mainly because they funnel so much receiving volume underneath (league-leading 21% backfield target share allowed). That should benefit Gibbs (and David Montgomery to a slightly lesser extent) – as should the game environment – both of Gibbs’ best fantasy outings this year have come in contests with a total over 50.0. It’s easy to argue other RBs are stronger plays based on raw volume, but the implied game environment here lends itself to ceiling performances from nearly everyone involved, including Gibbs.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (@ TEN)
DraftKings: $7,200 (RB7) | FanDuel: $8,100 (RB9)
This falls into the ‘don’t overthink it’ category of DFS plays. Brown ranks top-5 in DraftKings FPG, XFP/G, and snap share since he took over the backfield in Week 9. Somehow, his DFS prices still haven’t caught up. I expect Brown to project as one of the best values of the Week 15 main slate against a Tennessee defense that ranks as the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+3.9 FPG) since Week 9.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers (VS. DAL)
DraftKings: $6,500 (RB13) | FanDuel: $7,500 (RB16)
Hubbard is currently the only healthy RB on the Panthers roster after Jonathon Brooks suffered a torn ACL and Raheem Blackshear suffered a chest injury on Sunday. And while we would normally be concerned about gamescript and offensive competency for a bellcow RB on a bad team like Carolina – those concerns are fairly minimal in this matchup.
The Bryce Young-led Panthers are actually favored by 1.0-point here, and Dallas has allowed the 2nd-most rushing YPG (147.6) and 7th-most FPG (25.0) to opposing RBs. Hubbard averages 27.0 DraftKings FPG in the Panthers’ three wins this season – and there is truly nothing stopping him from earning every high-value backfield touch this week. I’m excited to pair him with the Panthers’ defense on my tournament teams this week.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets (@ JAX)
DraftKings: $6,500 (WR13) | FanDuel: $7,400 (WR16)
Since Week 5, Wilson has been the WR3 by targets per game (10.3) and the WR1 (tied with Puka Nacua) in XFP/G (20.1). Volume hasn’t been an issue, but his bottom-10 catchable target rate (among players with 50-plus targets) and general offensive incompetency (8th-lowest in PPG) have kept him from posting massive fantasy scores this season.
Those are still risks in Week 15, but a matchup with the Jaguars should make Wilson’s life a lot easier. Jacksonville is the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+4.7 FPG), allowing the 2nd-most receiving YPG (277.1), and the most deep receiving YPG (74.2). Wilson ranks in the top 15 among all players in deep targets (18) and should have an easier time coming down with those against a very weak Jaguars passing defense.
Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills (VS. DET)
DraftKings: $6,100 (WR17) | FanDuel: $7,000 (WR20)
It’s understandable to feel some fatigue hearing me write up every play from this game – but the game environment here really can’t be understated. This game's 54.0 total is the highest of the season, and the total is +6.5 points higher than the next-closest total on the main slate. We can say – beyond any reasonable doubt – that this is a game you will need exposure to in Week 15.
I don’t love Shakir’s profile – his position-low 4.8 aDOT doesn’t lend itself to big plays or ceiling performances. But he’s partially made up for it with raw volume; Shakir has led the Bills in target share in five of his last seven games, and he draws an exceptional matchup. The Lions are the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (+3.4 FPG), but closer to a neutral matchup for outside WRs (-0.05 FPG), setting them up as one of the league’s biggest slot funnels. Shakir should get peppered with targets here, but I’d generally prefer him in smaller field contests, as I’m still a bit skeptical of his ability to put the slate out of reach.
Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers (VS. DAL)
DraftKings: $5,400 (WR25) | FanDuel: $6,100 (WR32)
Over the last three weeks, Thielen is averaging 86.0 receiving YPG, 8.3 targets per game, 15.9 XFP/G, and 18.3 DraftKings FPG. Over the full season, those marks would rank 5th-, 12th-, 12th-, and 8th-best. Thielen is a massive value relative to his DFS price tags, and that’s only potentiated by a Dallas defense that has profiled as a slot funnel in recent weeks. Since Week 10, the Cowboys rank as a borderline-neutral schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (-1.1 FPG), but as the 6th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (-6.3 FPG). That should funnel volume to Thielen, who has already benefitted massively from Bryce Young’s recent steps forward at QB.
David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns (VS. KC)
DraftKings: $5,200 (TE4) | FanDuel: $6,500 (TE4)
Njoku has an absurd 28 targets over his last two games – the most of any player at any position. The 15.7 DraftKings FPG he’s averaged since Jameis Winston took over would rank 1st among all slate-eligible TEs and 12th among slate-eligible WRs. Despite this, Njoku is priced as the WR29 by DraftKings salary.
And he’s helped in Week 15 by a favorable matchup – Kansas City is the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (+3.6 FPG). Elite volume mixed with a favorable matchup in an environment where the Browns will need to throw as 5.0-point underdogs.
