Week 4 Fantasy Football Start 'Em Sit 'Em

Welcome to Week 4 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.

This new article format is something that has been bouncing through my mind to start the season. In as concise a manner as possible, we will go through the outlook of every fantasy-relevant player.

This piece will replace Stat Pack going forward, because it’s so comprehensive. All of the data-driven research that you would normally read in Stat Pack will instead go in here.

As always, my DMs in Discord (@GrahamBarfield) are open for any Start/Sit questions you may have, while Tom Brolley, John Hansen, and I will be streaming for subscribers on Sunday mornings to help answer any of your tough calls.

Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.

Let’s get to it.

Lions at Packers (TNF)

Must Start

Amon-Ra St. Brown / Sam LaPorta

Start ‘Em

Aaron Jones – The Lions are playing much better run defense this season, but Jones remains a high-ceiling RB2 given the weakened state of the position.

Jordan Love – With Christian Watson tentatively expected to return, Love is a back-end QB1. We also have some sneaky rushing upside here (14/71/1 in three games).

FLEX Plays

David Montgomery / Jahmyr Gibbs

Montgomery (thigh) is expected to return on TNF after HC Dan Campbell’s comments. He might be a little more limited on a short week – but should get plenty of his usual early-down, goal-line role.

Among the 50 RBs with at least 15 carries this season, Gibbs ranks 4th-best in missed tackles forced per carry (0.48) and 5th-best in explosive runs of 15+ yards (9.7%).

Gibbs is a future stud fantasy RB1 but is stuck on the RB2/FLEX line with Montgomery likely to receive most of the goal-line work.

Christian Watson – Will be limited in first start off of a hamstring strain, but he has a sky-high ceiling.

Sit ‘Em

A.J. Dillon – Among 50 qualifying RBs, Dillon ranks 40th in yards after contact and 47th in missed tackles forced per carry. He has gained 10 or more yards just once on 37 carries. He’s droppable in shallow leagues.

Josh Reynolds – Last week reminds us of how low his floor is. Not a full-time player (route share’s of 67% > 73% > 70%) as Kalif Raymond continues to mix in.

Spiked Week Potential

Jared Goff – QB2/SuperFlex-only play. Over the last two seasons, Goff averages 18.2 fantasy points and 281.3 passing yards per game when the Lions are favored vs. 15.0 FPG and 231.8 YPG when they’re underdogs.

Luke Musgrave – The top streaming TE this week. Musgrave’s route share spiked from 70% in Weeks 1-2 to 84% in Week 3. The Lions have allowed a league-high 263 yards to TEs.

Romeo Doubs – Saw full-time usage and 11 targets last week now that he’s fully healthy, but Watson’s return bumps Doubs down.

Falcons at Jaguars (9:30 am ET | London)

Must Start

Travis Etienne / Bijan Robinson / Evan Engram

Start ‘Em

Trevor Lawrence – Has gotten unlucky to start the season between red-zone miscues and drops. 62.8% of his passes have been charted as perfectly accurate, which is the 2nd-highest rate behind only Tua Tagovailoa (69.3%). However, a league-leading 8% of Lawrence’s passes have been dropped. Atlanta allowed 20.3 FP and 18.0 FP to Jordan Love and Jared Goff in Weeks 2-3.

Calvin Ridley / Christian Kirk

Ridley looked like a sure-fire WR1 after Week 1, but has had two poor games back-to-back with bad drops. One drop was a 30-yard TD last week. You have to go right back to him, though.

Kirk has the better matchup of the duo with Atlanta allowing 0.40 fantasy points per route run to slot receivers, tied with the L.A. Chargers for the league-high.

WR Zay Jones (knee) is out and Jamal Agnew (quad) is questionable. Last week, Agnew ran a route on 62% of the pass plays while Tim Jones was in on 24.4%.

Pain

Drake London / Kyle Pitts

On the plus side, nothing about this matchup is imposing. The Jaguars have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per route run to both outside and slot receivers. London is running 80% of his routes out wide, while Pitts (58% slot) is a big WR. Ridder is a nightmare, though, leaving both as extremely volatile options.

Pitts’ catchable target rate (52.9%) ranks dead last among tight ends. Last year, just 63% of Pitts’ targets were catchable. That also ranked last.

Drake London has seen just 9 catchable targets through three games. A total of 67 WRs have seen 10 or more catchable targets.

Just 60% of London’s targets have been catchable. This ranks 102nd out of 109 qualifying WRs.

Sit ‘Em

Desmond Ridder

Tyler Allgeier – Snap rate has declined in three straight games (56% > 44% > 30%). The Jaguars have played stout run defense this season (2.88 YPC allowed | sixth-fewest) and will sell out to stop the run to make Ridder beat them with his arm.

Dolphins at Bills

Must Start

Josh Allen / Tua Tagovailoa / Tyreek Hill / Stefon Diggs / Jaylen Waddle / Raheem Mostert

Start ‘Em

James Cook – He’s stuck as a solid RB2 with little TD upside. Cook will wind up as a strong value in season-long fantasy, but someone we want to avoid most weeks in DFS because of his lack of scoring equity. Cook ranks 16th among running backs in snaps (64.5%) on all plays not in the red zone. In the red zone, however, his snap rate ranks 48th (36.8%).

De’Von Achane – Achane had 10 carries to Mostert’s 7 in the first half, giving us plenty of runway for both of these backs to produce. Achane has the most upside over the season, of course. The Bills have not faced many rush attempts (53 | third-fewest), but have played awful run defense to start the season allowing 5.79 YPC (most). Mostert remains a must-start this week while 10-12 touches might be all Achane needs to deliver here.

FLEX Plays

Gabe Davis – Has a 13.6% target share through three games (Diggs: 28.2%). He’s a WR3 with a slight bump given the expected scoring environment (54.5 over/under).

Sit ‘Em

Dalton Kincaid / Dawson Knox – Eating into each other's production, leaving both off of the radar for Week 4 decisions.

Durham Smythe – Buffalo has allowed 2 TDs to TEs over the last 21 games dating back to Week 1 last season.

Vikings at Panthers

Must Start

Justin Jefferson / T.J. Hockenson

Start ‘Em

Kirk Cousins – Has cashed in QB5, QB2, and QB4 scoring weeks so far. The Panthers are beat up defensively with Jayce Horn and Shaq Thompson on I.R. while S Xavier Woods is out and LB Frankie Luvu is questionable.

Miles Sanders – Line him up as a volume-based RB2 and keep it moving. Sanders’ snap rate (57% > 62% > 65%) has increased every week after he missed most of August with a minor groin injury.

STAT THAT WILL SHOCK YOU! – Sanders is tied with Kyren Williams for the lead in targets (18) among RBs.

Update (9/29): Sanders did not practice on Friday with a groin injury. HC Frank Reich said that he’s “optimistic” that Sanders will start, but this still increases the chances that backup Chuba Hubbard plays a bit more than usual. Sanders is a low-end RB2 now.

FLEX Plays

Alexander Mattison – Hasn’t played particularly well, but stumbled in as the fantasy RB10 last week. I expect Mattison to maintain the passing-down role with Cam Akers eventually taking over as the main early-down runner. Mattison is a fine RB2 and FLEX.

Jordan Addison – Route share (62% > 72% > 77%) has risen in three straight weeks. I took the over on Addison’s receiving prop (38.5 yards).

Adam Thielen / D.J. Chark – Both are in play. The Vikings allow league-highs in YPRR (3.13) and fantasy points per route run (0.56) to outside WRs. Chark was a full-time starter (86% route share) in Week 3 and ran 72% of his routes lined up outside.

Thielen (71.2% slot) mainly lines up inside and will try to get his REVENGE. Jonathan Mingo (concussion) may miss the game. Terrace Marshall (65% route share Week 3) will work as the WR3 if Mingo misses.

Young is a rookie, after all, and will be fine long-term, but Dalton provided some stability here last week. Hopefully the week off helped Young reset.

Sit ‘Em

K.J. Osborn

Hayden Hurst

Cam Akers

Spiked Week Potential

Bryce Young – In play for QB2/SuperFlex decisions this week with Minnesota allowing the third-most FP to QBs.

Broncos at Bears

Start ‘Em

Justin Fields – You likely don’t have a better option on your bench. If we can’t get a usable week out of Fields against the Broncos, his season is likely over for fantasy. Denver allowed Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Howell to finish as the QB13 against them in Weeks 1-2, and Tua Tagovailoa just shredded them (QB3).

Russell Wilson – Chicago has allowed 18+ FP to Jordan Love / Baker Mayfield / Patrick Mahomes and will potentially be without multiple starters in the secondary. He’s a very solid QB2 for SuperFlex, at the very least.

Javonte Williams – Perine is playing just enough to cap him. Perine (47 routes) has gotten more passing down work than Williams (33 routes), while both running backs have 11 targets. And, Perine has out-snapped Williams by an 11 to 5 margin inside-the-10 (red-zone), which is a huge concern for Javonte long-term if this holds. As a result, Williams is only the RB31 by expected fantasy points per game (11.5 Half-PPR). He has yet to play more than 45% of the snaps in a game so far, but that could change here with the Broncos as 3-point road favorites. This matchup boosts Williams into RB2 territory.

FLEX Plays

Jerry Jeudy / Courtland Sutton – Jeudy has received 30.6% of the Broncos first read targets over the last two weeks compared to 22.2% for Courtland Sutton and 19.4% for Marvin Mims. Sutton left a ton of fantasy points on the field last week, but both he and Jeudy are WR3 plays against the Bears' beat-up secondary (S Eddie Jackson, CBs Jaylon Johnson, and Josh Blackwell are questionable).

Jeudy is the preferred play.

D.J. Moore – He bailed us out with a garbage time TD last week after he had a horrific drop at the end of the second quarter. Hopefully, you faded Moore like I suggested this season and never have to make this call in fantasy, but this is about as good of a matchup as he and Fields will see. The Broncos defense quit last week.

Khalil Herbert / Roschon Johnson

As expected, the Bears reverted back to an extreme run-heavy game plan in Week 3 despite being absolutely destroyed by the Chiefs. The Bears ran the ball +11.8% more than expected (highest rate) while Justin Fields carried the ball 11 times (season-high).

The Bears have not kept games close because their defense is giving up so many points, but it’s notable that Khalil Herbert has out-snapped Roshon Johnson by a 63% to 37% margin over the last two weeks when the game has been within a score.

Denver gave up 172 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs to Commanders RBs in Week 2 before getting absolutely bludgeoned for 351 rushing yards last week by Dolphins RBs. This gives Herbert and Johnson life as FLEX plays if you’re hurting at RB. Herbert remains the preferred option for now.

Sit ‘Em

Cole Kmet

Marvin Mims – Big play waiting to happen, but still has not seen an increase in playing time. I expect Mims to eat into Sutton’s snaps eventually. Maybe he’s earned it this week?

Ravens at Browns

Must Start

Lamar Jackson / Mark Andrews

The Browns' defense shut down the Bengals, Steelers, and Titans – allowing just 12.9 yards per drive, by far the fewest in the league. We have to temper expectations here, but both Jackson and Andrews remain must-plays.

I’m not sure that this was the plan, but one of the fall outs from JK Dobbins season-ending injury is that Lamar Jackson has carried the run game with 26 carries for 155 yards and 2 TDs in Weeks 2-3.

Lamar has 14 designed carries over the last two games. He averaged 7.2 designed carries per game last season.

Start ‘Em

Amari Cooper – Cashed in on an easy matchup last week and should have had an even bigger game if the refs had not blown the whistle too early on a would-be 70+ yard TD. Cooper has seen 7 > 10 > 8 targets through three games, which will keep him in the WR2 conversation all year.

Jerome Ford – In his first start, Ford played on 56% of the snaps and ran 18 routes while Kareem Hunt (20% snap share | 5 routes) was involved as backup. Meanwhile, five of Pierre Strong’s 6 carries came on the final drive with the game well in hand. This looks like a two-man backfield moving forward, with Ford as the clear-cut lead RB and Hunt as the backup.

Ultimately, this Browns offense is going to be a spread-based attack, not just with Nick Chubb out for the season, but because shotgun/spread is what Deshaun Watson is most comfortable in. Ford’s pass-catching ability will give him a leg up in this backfield.

FLEX Plays

Zay Flowers – His average depth of target by week: 2.6 > 12.8 > 3.7 yards. Unless Flowers gets more downfield looks like in Week 2, he’s sort of stuck as a PPR-only WR3. We are tempering expectations on Flowers here because this is the worst matchup running for opposing wide receivers. The Browns are allowing a league-low 0.19 fantasy points per route run to outside WRs.

Rashod Bateman (hamstring) and Odell Beckham (ankle) are both out. Nelson Agholor will start opposite Flowers.

Elijah Moore – PPR-only play. Caught all 9 of his targets but just for 49 yards in Week 3. His average depth of target cratered to 1.1 yards after his aDOT was 11.4 yards in Weeks 1-2.

Sit ‘Em

Deshaun Watson – The Ravens have faced CJ Stroud (making his first start), Joe Burrow (gimpy), and Gardner Minshew to start the season and have limited them to the eighth-fewest passing fantasy points per dropback.

Update (9/29): Watson projected as a back-end QB1 to start the week, but is questionable with a shoulder contusion (throwing arm). The Ravens are beat up defensively and may be down both of their EDGE rushers (Odafe Oweh and Davis Ojabo didn’t practice all week), so the only concern for fantasy is the extent of Watson’s injury. I tend to be conservative about injured players, so I’d prepare a streamer (Brock Purdy / Russell Wilson / C.J. Stroud).

David Njoku – He is not a big enough part of the offense to warrant consideration (10.8% target share). The Ravens have allowed 8 receptions for 45 yards on 15 targets to TEs this season.

Gus Edwards / Justice Hill

I really hope that you don’t have to rely on a Ravens RB here. The Browns front-seven is stifling opposing RBs to just 2.79 YPC (4th-fewest). Justice Hill (foot) is questionable, and if he misses the game, it will make Edwards a passable FLEX in Half-PPR formats.

Steelers at Texans

Start ‘Em

George Pickens – His 25.9% target share ranks 15th among WRs in Weeks 2-3. Pickens has been the clear focal point of the passing attack (35.3% first read target share), and this matchup is not one to be overly concerned about. Texans top CB Derek Stingley is on I.R. while slot CB Tavierre Thomas (hand) is questionable.

Pat Freiermuth – After two brutal matchups, Freiermuth delivered 3/41/1 last week and gets another good matchup this week. The Texans have surrendered 16 receptions for 158 yards and 1 TD over the last two weeks to Colts and Jaguars TEs. Freiermuth is tied with Travis Kelce for the TE lead in end zone targets (4).

FLEX Plays

Tank Dell – Led the team in targets (10 > 7) in back-to-back games and has shown the ability to threaten the defense vertically and separate over the middle. We were all over Dell’s breakout last week, so hopefully you had him stashed.

Nico Collins – Had a down game (2/34 receiving) last week with the Texans not having to throw a ton of times like Weeks 1-2. There will be some variance here weekly with Dell and Collins both emerging, but both are going to end up as strong WR3/FLEX plays most weeks because of their quarterback.

CJ Stroud is playing at an extremely high level already. On all throws from a clean pocket, Stroud ranks 6th-best in YPA (8.17) and 10th-best in passer rating (105.0).

On throws of 10+ air yards, Stroud ranks 11th in completions over expectation (+4.0%) and 8th-best in passer rating (116.4).

Dameon Pierce – His role has been a massive disappointment so far. He ranks just 26th among RBs in snap rate (50.2%), he’s 17th in team carry share (53.3%), and ranks a lowly 36th in route share (29.7%). Pierce opened with three tough matchups, which does matter here. We do have a good spot to keep the lights on. Pittsburgh has allowed 4.94 YPC (5th-most) to start the season.

Najee Harris / Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren’s snap rate has increased (slightly) every week: 40% > 43% > 45%. I was projecting a 60/40 split (in favor of Najee Harris), but this is trending towards a full-blown 50/50 split.

Warren has fully taken over on passing downs, earning 16 targets to Harris’ 6.

These two have a canceling-out effect on each other, rendering both as RB3/FLEX plays until something changes usage-wise here.

Sit ‘Em

Dalton Schultz

Robert Woods

Kenny Pickett – One good game isn’t enough to instill confidence for fantasy. Pickett still has not finished as a top-10 fantasy scorer in a single game in his career. He remains a SuperFlex-league-only play.

Spiked Week Potential

C.J. Stroud – QB7 and QB11 finishes the last two weeks.

Calvin Austin – Became a full-time player (87% route share) last week, but his chemistry with Kenny Pickett isn’t there yet.

Rams at Colts

Must Start

Zack Moss / Puka Nacua

Start ‘Em

Anthony Richardson – He’s baaaack. Richardson has scorched earth rushing upside and slides right back in as a back-end QB1. Just as a reminder, Richardson has rushed for 13/75/3 in 5 quarters of action so far.

Kyren Williams – Over the last two weeks, Kyren Williams has played on 97% of the Rams snaps and he is the RB2 in XFP (21.4) behind only Tony Pollard (24.1). This is just an absurd role for Williams, and we should expect HC Sean McVay to continue to use him as his new bell cow. Ronnie Rivers is just a guy, while Zach Evans has been a healthy scratch in Weeks 1-3.

Michael Pittman – Saw 32% of the targets with Anthony Richardson on his 47 pass attempts. We will need Pittman to get some more downfield targets eventually, but we can absolutely keep going back to him as a volume-based WR2.

FLEX Plays

Tutu Atwell

Sit ‘Em

Matthew Stafford – Playing at an extremely high level and elevating Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell. That said, Stafford has finished as the QB17 > QB22 > QB21 in weekly output this season. He remains a SuperFlex-league-only play.

Tyler Higbee

Van Jefferson

Buccaneers at Saints

Must Start

Chris Olave

Start ‘Em

Alvin Kamara – Almost a must-start this week. Kamara has gotten extremely fortunate runout as he comes off his suspension. He looks primed for a bell cow workload with Jamaal Williams (hamstring) on I.R. for at least the next three weeks while rookie Kendre Miller (35% snap rate) ran behind Tony Jones (48%) in Week 3.

Rachaad White – Despite fumbling, his role got better in Week 3. He played on a season-high 91% of the snaps and led all RBs in route share (78.6%). This is a tougher matchup just like last week, but it is so hard to sit running backs with this type of workload.

FLEX Plays

Mike Evans / Chris Godwin

Evans has been white hot to start the season and is Baker Mayfield’s clear top target. Through three games, Mike Evans has out-targeted Chris Godwin by a 27 to 18 margin.

Evans has seen 51.4% of the team’s air yards, which is the highest share among all wide receivers. Tyreek Hill (50.3%) is #2 while Davante Adams (49.5%) is third.

Evans’ 37.3% first read target share ranks 8th-highest among wide receivers. Comparatively, Godwin ranks 31st (25.4% FR TS).

That said, Evans has struggled in matchups vs. the Saints in his career and their secondary is off to a great start. New Orleans is allowing the 2nd-fewest fantasy points per route run to outside wide receivers (0.20). Chris Godwin is running 46% of his routes from the slot compared to just 25% for Evans, giving him a slight upgrade matchup-wise.

Evans is a boom-or-bust WR2/3 while Godwin remains a WR3/FLEX with more appeal in PPR leagues.

Michael Thomas – Has 8, 9, and 9 targets through three games as the Saints possession WR. Thomas has a chance for a bigger week here against this Bucs’ secondary that has allowed the 7th-most FP to outside WRs.

Sit ‘Em

Cade Otton

Juwan Johnson

SuperFlex-only

Baker Mayfield / Derek Carr or Jameis Winston

Update (9/29): Carr returned to a limited practice on Friday and was spotted in pads throwing. Regardless if it’s Winston or Carr starting under center, both are 2-QB/SuperFlex-league plays only.

Spiked Week Potential

Rashid Shaheed – Route share spiked from 66% in Weeks 1-2 to 79% in Week 3.

Commanders at Eagles

Must Start

Jalen Hurts / A.J. Brown / Devonta Smith

Start ‘Em

D’Andre Swift

He followed up his breakout Week 2 performance with another great game – 16/130 rushing vs. Tampa.

However, Swift split snaps (54%) with Ken Gainwell (46%) basically down the middle. Swift played 10 snaps in the red-zone while Gainwell played 9 while the duo split pass down work (18 routes for Swift to 15 for Gainwell).

There really isn’t a debate on who the better runner is, though. Swift is averaging more yards before contact (3.3 to 1.5) and after contact (3.3 to 1.9) compared to Gainwell. He’s also forcing more missed tackles per carry (0.24 vs. 0.14).

Swift is averaging 6.1 YPC on zone carries, which is the foundation of the Eagles run game. Gainwell is averaging 3.7 YPC.

Washington’s front seven is talented, but Philadelphia’s offensive line is just mauling right now. Swift is a high-upside RB2 start.

Dallas Goedert – Do you really have a better option?

FLEX Plays

Brian Robinson – Coming off his worst game of the season because Washington struggled so badly offensively, Robinson’s Week 4 prospects don’t look much better. Philadelphia is a shutdown unit on the ground, allowing just 2.84 YPC (5th-fewest) and five rushing first-downs (fewest). Robinson is a low-end FLEX.

Sit ‘Em

Sam Howell

Terry McLaurin / Jahan Dotson / Curtis Samuel – Commanders OC Eric Bieniemy is spreading the ball around here too much for our liking. Washington is getting everyone involved. Six (6!!) different players have a target share between 9-16% in this offense. I’m not excited to start anyone on this offense with the Eagles front-seven likely to maul the Commanders offensive line.

Antonio Gibson

Spiked Week Potential

Logan Thomas – Should be back after missing Week 3 with a concussion. If there is one part of this Eagle's defense that is vulnerable, it is their coverage against TEs. Thomas and Packers TE Luke Musgrave are my two favorite Week 4 streamers.

Bengals at Titans

Must Start

Ja’Marr Chase / Tee Higgins / Joe Burrow

This hasn’t been the cleanest start for the Bengals pass game, obviously. Burrow’s lingering calf injury still looms large. However, this has been the premier matchup to target for QB-WR duos for two years now. The Titans play stifling run defense (2.56 YPC allowed | fewest), forcing their opponents to air it out against them.

As a result, Tennessee has allowed the 3rd-most FP and 2nd-most yards to outside wide receivers to start the year. Derek Carr (305 yards), Justin Herbert (305), and Deshaun Watson (289) all found success in this matchup to start this season and this is after the Titans gave up the most passing yardage last year (4,931).

Update (9/29): Joe Burrow was removed from the injury report.

Start ‘Em

Joe Mixon – I’m not expecting Mixon to find much success on the ground here, but his workload is so strong. With an increased role in the pass game – RB Chris Evans was a healthy scratch last week – we can start Mixon as a RB2.

Derrick Henry – His fantasy floor is lower than ever, with the Titans looking one-dimensional on offense. Henry has seen eight or more defenders in the box on 47.1% of his carries, the third-highest rate in the league behind Saquon Barkley (48.2%) and Dalvin Cook (48%).

The Titans' offensive line is making matters worse. Henry is averaging just 0.61 yards before contact per carry (42nd-of-50 RBs), which is way down from 1.17 in 2022.

The final problem is that Henry’s passing down role has collapsed with the emergence of Tyjae Spears. The rookie has run 37 routes (10 targets) compared to 22 routes (5 targets) for Henry.

Hopefully, we see Henry run through a few open holes with the Bengals allowing 4.96 YPC (3rd-most).

FLEX Plays

D’Andre Hopkins – The only thing we have to rely on is volume here. Hopkins ranks tied for 7th in targets per route run (0.32) but has massively underperformed based on his role. Hopkins ranks 36th in XFP per game among WRs (13.0 Half-PPR points), but he’s only averaging 7.4 FP per game.

Update (9/29): Treylon Burks (knee) is out – giving Hopkins even more target potential.

Sit ‘Em

Chig Okonkwo

Spiked Week Potential

Tyler Boyd – Has been unusable for fantasy to start the season but has a little pulse here with the matchup being so strong for the Bengals pass game.

Raiders at Chargers (4:05pm ET)

Must Start

Davante Adams (Garoppolo is expected to clear concussion protocol) / Justin Herbert / Keenan Allen

Allen already has 39 targets (2nd-most), propelling him to WR2 by FPG (22.9 Half-PPR) through three games.

He is about to get absolutely fed. He averaged 11.3 targets per game in three contests without Mike Williams last season with two individual games of 13 and 14 targets.

Start ‘Em

Josh Jacobs – Vegas’ run blocking has just crumbled. Through three games, Jacobs has averaged just 0.24 yards before contact (47th-of-50 RBs) as 60% of his runs have been stuffed (4th-highest rate).

Hopefully we see some improvement against a Chargers run defense that just allowed 23/120 rushing (5.2 YPC) to the dormant Vikings run game in Week 3.

Jakobi Meyers – In his two games, Meyers has tallied 10 and 12 targets for a massive 31.4% share. Davante Adams has 39% of the targets, while no one other WR or TE is above 6%. That will eventually level out some, but Meyers has cashed in 9/81/2 and 7/85 receiving lines already and now gets a Chargers secondary that can’t stop anyone.

FLEX Plays

Joshua Kelley – He’s scored a total of 6.6 fantasy points in two starts… so I get that we have no confidence here. All we have is blind faith in him getting a bell cow role one more time with Austin Ekeler (ankle) out. Kelley has played on 75% of the snaps over the last two weeks. The matchup is great again, at least. Vegas has allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards and 6th-most receptions to RBs.

Josh Palmer – Expected to be the immediate replacement for Mike Williams (knee). Rookie Quinten Johnston should take over as the season goes on, but for now, Palmer enters the back-end WR3/FLEX conversation. Palmer averaged 5.5 receptions and 59.5 yards per game (on 8.3 targets per game) in the 11 contests where he played more than 75% of the snaps last season.

Sit ‘Em

Quinten Johnston (for now)

Gerald Everett – Splitting routes (39% share) with Donald Parham (34%). Don’t get cute and chase ghosts here with Williams out.

Spiked Week Potential

Jimmy Garoppolo – Chargers are allowing the third most passing fantasy points per dropback (0.53).

Patriots at Cowboys (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Tony Pollard

Pollard has played on 73% of the Cowboys red-zone snaps through three games, which is up from 52.8% last season.He has finished as the RB5 > RB16 > RB14 to start the season, which feels like a floor outcome for how talented he is and how valuable his role is.

Without Ezekiel Elliott, we are getting the highest-end outcome in regards to Pollard’s role. He’s averaging 24.1 weighted opportunities per game, which is on another planet. That will regress some. But for reference, Christian McCaffrey’s epic 2019 season (21.4 W/O per game) is Pollard’s only rival.

Start ‘Em

CeeDee Lamb – Leads the team in targets (8) and has turned those looks into 6/128 receiving against man coverage. New England plays man coverage 39.4% of the time, the 3rd-highest rate.

Rhamondre Stevenson – His workload is more valuable this season. The big games are coming. Stevenson is the RB6 by route share (54%) and he’s played on 81.3% of the red-zone snaps (RB9). By XFP, Stevenson is the RB14 (14.3 Half-PPR) – yet he’s RB24 by actual FP scored.

Sit ‘Em

Dak Prescott – Has finished as the QB29 > QB17 > QB17. The Patriots held Jalen Hurts (12.5 FP) and Tua Tagovailoa (12.3 FP) in check before erasing Zach Wilson (6.4 FP) in Week 3.

Mac Jones – The Patriots have the 4th-lowest implied scoring total based on the over/under (18.0). Dallas is allowing the 3rd-fewest passing fantasy points per dropback (0.22).

Michael Gallup – Has earned one (1) target on 27 routes vs. man coverage this season.

Brandin Cooks – Has turned his 11 targets into 39 yards. Will mainly line up against Patriots stud rookie CB Christian Gonzalez.

Patriots WRs – DeVante Parker (90% route share) led this group in Week 3, then it was a rotation between Kendrick Bourne (73%), JuJu Smith-Schuster (60%), and Demario Douglas (40%).

Over the last two weeks, Bourne leads the group in targets (14) followed by Hunter Henry (12), DeVante Parker (11), Dust-Duster (9), Stevenson (7), Mike Gesicki (7), and Demario Douglas (5).

Dallas’ front seven is the strength of this defense, but they have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per route run to outside WRs. With Trevon Diggs (knee) out, Josh Dobbs went 17/21 passing for 189 yards (9.0 YPA).

Hunter Henry – This is not the week to chase a TD from Henry. Dallas has allowed 2 TDs to TEs over the last 22 games dating back to Week 1 last season.

Spiked Week Potential

Jake Ferguson – Needs to run more routes (TE34 in route share | 50.9%) but is 2nd to only Travis Kelce (0.34) in targets per route run (Ferguson TPRR – 0.30). Ferguson has seen 15 total catchable targets, tied for 8th-most with Hunter Henry. There is enough here to leave the lights on for Ferguson.

Cardinals at 49ers (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Christian McCaffrey

Start ‘Em

Brock Purdy – Has finished as a top-15 fantasy scorer in 7-of-9 starts, but only has one top-5 scoring week. Purdy is more like a great QB2 in SuperFlex than anything, but he’s certainly in play for streamers this week. The 49ers have the highest implied team total (29 points) on the slate.

George Kittle – It’s unlikely that you have a better option here. But the sample size is continuing to show that Kittle needs one of Deebo or Aiyuk to miss time. Over the last two seasons, George Kittle has averaged 18.0 Half-PPR points per game in the five games that Deebo Samuel and/or Brandon Aiyuk have missed.

Across his 15 other games, Kittle is averaging 8.4 Half-PPR points per game. He’s averaging just 5.3 targets per game with Deebo and Aiyuk healthy.

49ers WR situation

Brandon Aiyuk has practiced all week and looks like he’ll play after missing Week 3 with a shoulder injury.

However, Deebo Samuel (knee, ribs) has not practiced all week. He doesn’t need mid-week reps to play but the 49ers are massive favorites here and have their eyes on the Super Bowl. Will they play it safe and just let Deebo rest a week? He was spotted sprinting on the side on Friday.

If Deebo can play… This is his week. Just like last year, Brock Purdy favors targeting Deebo against zone coverages. Samuel has earned a team-high 17 targets vs. zone, turning those looks into a monster 13/192 receiving. The Cardinals predominantly play zone (72% | 12th-highest rate).

Update (9/29): If Deebo sits… Aiyuk and Kittle are two of the best individual plays on the slate. WR Jauan Jennings (shin) also has not practiced all week.

FLEX Plays

James Conner – In nine starts without Kyler Murray, Conner has finished as the fantasy RB4, RB14, RB5, RB12, RB5, RB15, RB23, RB14, and RB6.

This is an absolutely brutal matchup, though. The 49ers have smothered opponents to the point where they have to abandon the run. As a result, they’ve allowed a league-low 111 rushing yards to RBs. This looks like a repeat of last season when San Francisco allowed a league-low 1,014 rushing yards.

Sit ‘Em

Josh Dobbs – The Cardinals have the lowest Week 4 implied total (15 points) by 1.3 points (Jets 2nd-lowest at 16.3 points).

Zach Ertz – The 49ers have erased tight ends (10/62/1 receiving on 23 targets) to start the season. Ertz has turned his 20 targets into 83 yards.

Spiked Week Potential

Marquise Brown – Has turned 10 and 7 targets into 6/54/1 and 5/61/1 over the last two weeks. The Cardinals are going to have to throw a bunch here as massive 14-point underdogs, giving Brown some volume-based hope as a WR3/FLEX option.

Chiefs at Jets (SNF)

Must Start

Patrick Mahomes / Travis Kelce

Start ‘Em

Isaiah Pacheco – Was the clear lead RB in the first half last week. Pacheco played on 55% of the snaps (10 carries, 3 targets) in the 1st and 2nd quarter Week 3.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (25% snaps | 4 carries, 1 target) and Jerick McKinnon (21% snaps | 3 targets) were behind Pacheco.

11 of CEH’s 15 carries came in the second half.

With clear “1A” usage, Pacheco is on the back end of the RB2 radar. The Jets have played stout run defense (3.31 YPC | 9th-fewest), so we’re especially chasing Pacheco’s TD potential.

FLEX Plays

Breece Hall – Snap rate has increased in every game (31% > 34% > 49%). Hall finally got a boost in the pass game last week, running 9 routes to 5 routes apiece for Cook/Carter.

This is actually an important signal for Hall’s role increasing. In Weeks 1-2, Carter ran 21 routes while Cook ran 18. Hall ran just 12 routes.

That’s the optimistic side of things.

The Jets run blocking is horrendous, generating just 0.66 adjusted yards before contact (5th-fewest). New York ranks 26th in ESPN’s run-blocking win rate metric (and 31st in pass-blocking).

Despite the terrible offensive environment, I’m keeping Hall in the FLEX mix this week because his role is going to continue to trend up. Breece practiced in full on Thursday and Friday this week for the first time all season.

Sit ‘Em

Garrett Wilson – Averaging 8.1 Half-PPR points per game in 12 starts with Zach Wilson. Through three games, he’s seen just 15 catchable targets (36th among WRs). There is nothing I can say to instill confidence.

Chiefs WRs – Time is a flat circle. None of these Chiefs WRs are usable for fantasy! Skyy Moore (61%) and Marques Valdes-Scantling (61%) led the group in route share last week followed by Justin Watson (56%), Rashee Rice (46% – season high), and Justyn Ross (24%). Kadarius Toney missed practice with a toe injury last week and only ran 3 routes in Week 3 vs. Chicago.

Dalvin Cook – Has gained 58 yards on his 25 carries with one gain of 10+ yards. His snap rate has decreased in three straight games (50% > 36% > 25%).

Tyler Conklin

Seahawks at Giants (MNF)

Must Start

Ken Walker / Darren Waller

Start ‘Em

D.K. Metcalf – The Giants play man coverage 41% of the time, which is the second-highest rate. Any time that Metcalf is up against a defense that will run a lot of man coverage, you want him in your lineups.

Daniel Jones – It has been ugly, so I do understand not wanting to click his name into lineups. T Andrew Thomas is likely to miss another game, too. That said, the Giants are tied with the Jaguars for the 13th-highest implied point total (23.0) and the Seahawks are dealing with a slew of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. It requires a leap of faith, but I’m starting Jones as a back-end QB1 in this spot. Seattle has been a trainwreck defensively, giving up 320+ passing yards to Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and Andy Dalton to start the season.

Geno Smith – More of a strong-QB2 but is absolutely passable as a spot starter in 1-QB leagues this week.

FLEX Plays

Tyler Lockett

Matt Breida – Played 80% of the snaps last week, so he’s in play as a desperation RB3/FLEX if Saquon Barkley (ankle) misses another game. Barkley practiced in a limited fashion on Thursday and Friday.

Giants WRs

Last week the Giants went with a full-blown WR rotation behind Darius Slayton (81% route share).

Isaiah Hodgins was the WR2 but only ran a route on 56% of the pass plays while Parris Campbell (39%), Jalin Hyatt (36%), and Wan’Dale Robinson (22%) all split work. Gross.

Slayton remains the only Giants WR I’d chase for fantasy.

Sit ‘Em

Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Seattle is still playing a ton of 2-TE sets on passing downs.

Zach Charbonnet – Starting to work in more often but not enough to have standalone value yet.

Best and Worst Games

Rankings derived from my Pace/Plays/PROE game model.