2024 CONFERENCE SUNDAY POST-MORTEM
In the NFC Championship, the only thing my Basic and Advanced tickets got wrong was a reliance on Austin Ekeler to succeed in the receiving game. The targets were there, as the veteran finished with 7 targets, tied for second on the team with Terry McLaurin. Of those targets, Ekeler caught five but turned that into just 17 yards.
In the AFC Championship game, Josh Allen rushed for one fewer yard than needed in the Basic ticket, and Travis Kelce had his lowest yardage total since Week 11.
That’s just the way things have gone this season for these articles:
(As a reminder, here is the tracker for this year’s articles.)
Trying to win any bets when the lowest odds you’ll accept are +300 is tough to do. I think last season we benefited from plenty of luck, and this year variance has swung against us probably a tad bit more than it ought to have.
We have one more game to try to right the ship before moving on to next year.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - KC -1.5 - O/U 48.5 [FD]
BASIC TICKET (1 UNIT)
Xavier Worthy projects for 53.8 receiving yards. The rookie has finished with at least 40 yards in nine consecutive games. Per Tom Brolley’s Super Bowl Game Hub, Worthy “owns by far a team-best 37 first-read targets with a 31.4% first-read share over the last five games.” Philadelphia is a tough defense, but Kansas City has no running game whatsoever, and Worthy should have plenty of opportunities.
Travis Kelce projects for 55.5 receiving yards. Last week’s stinker was the first time since the 2019 postseason that Kelce finished with 4 or fewer targets and fewer than 40 yards in a playoff game. Philadelphia is fresh off of allowing another aged TE in Zach Ertz to rack up 11 catches for 104 receiving yards.
Saquon Barkley projects for 109.6 rushing yards. He’s rushed for 100+ yards in five straight games. Per Brolley, Kansas City has allowed the 11th-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT and the third-fewest rushing YPG. However, two of their five worst performances in that metric have come in the playoffs against Houston and Buffalo. Philadelphia’s offensive line and running game is an entirely different beast, and Barkley should have plenty of attempts (his line on FanDuel is 21.5 with -128 on the over).
A.J. Brown projects for 76.3 receiving yards. Brown had accumulated just 24 yards through two playoff games before his 96-yard performance in the NFC Championship. During the regular season, Brown finished with 40+ yards in 11/13 games. Per Ryan Heath’s Super Bowl Advanced Matchups, opposing defenses have utilized single-high looks at the second-highest rate in the league to slow down the rushing attack. Against single-high looks, Heath notes that Brown has averaged 3.94 YPRR, the second-best mark. Per Brolley, Kansas City has used two-high coverage at the second-highest rate, against which Brown has averaged a respectable 2.04 YPRR and .20 TPRR. So whichever way Kansas City chooses to go, Brown should have room to find the modest yardage we’re asking for in this basic ticket.
DeVonta Smith projects for 4.6 receptions. He’s finished with at least four receptions in eight consecutive games. Philadelphia went 7-1 during that stretch, with a 16-point winning margin in the seven victories. The spread would suggest that should they win, it’s pretty unlikely to be quite so lopsided. If the game remains close, Smith should earn plenty of targets. Per Heath, Kansas City has allowed the highest target share, 2nd-most YPG, and the most first downs to slot WRs. Heath notes that in the six games in which all of Philadelphia’s top pass-catchers were active, Smith led the way with 55.7% of his routes from the slot.
AGGRESSIVE TICKET (.25 UNITS)
Patrick Mahomes projects for 22.3 rushing yards. In the Super Bowl two years ago against Philadelphia, he rushed 6 times for 44 yards. In 20 career playoff games, he averages 29.05 rushing yards. That’s 45% higher than his career regular-season rushing YPG of 20.03 (in 112 games as a starter).
Dallas Goedert projects for 45.4 receiving yards. Since returning from injury, Goedert has had four straight games with at least 4 catches for 45+ yards. Per Brolley, Kansas City has allowed the most YPG and the second-most receptions to TEs.
SCRATCH-OFF TICKET (.10 UNITS)
Noah Gray projects for 1.3 receptions. He went without a target in the AFC Championship game, but caught all three of his targets in the Divisional Round. As the playoffs drew near, Kelce came out of hibernation, and Gray snapped a six-game streak of 2+ catches.
But Heath’s article noted some juicy tidbits in the matchup for Gray. Notably, Philadelphia used a combination of Cover 4 and Cover 6 at a league-high rate during the regular season, and have since used it even more in the postseason. They’ve also been weakest against targeted crosser routes. Meanwhile, Gray leads Kansas City in YPRR against those coverages (2.28), and has 3.30 YPRR and .30 TPRR on crosser routes. Gray’s inclusion in this ticket makes the odds skyrocket. That sounds like my kind of scratch-off.
BONUS SCRATCH-OFF TICKETS (.10 UNITS EACH)
Two separate players scoring two or more touchdowns in a Super Bowl last happened three years ago, when the Los Angeles Rams defeated the Cincinnati Bengals. It also happened 22 years ago, when two different Tampa Bay players scored 2+ times against Oakland. The Rams/Bengals Super Bowl was the first time opposing players did so since 1998.
I ran through recent history just to say that these bets are very unlikely to hit. But let’s have a little fun for the Super Bowl.
Good luck!
