Dynasty Buys and Sells: 2025 Post Super Bowl

Now that the Super Bowl has passed and it’s officially the NFL offseason, I’ve outlined the four players I’d most like to buy and the one player I’m aggressively trying to sell in dynasty fantasy football leagues. The below can also be interpreted as targets and avoids (respectively) at ADP within startup drafts.

As a disclaimer, any player (or asset class) can be a screaming buy for certain dynasty teams, and just as logical of a sell for others. For those interested, I discussed this concept using the example of the running back position on this week’s Dynasty Points.

All ADP and suggested exchange prices utilize February startup draft data from Dynasty Data Lab.

Buy

Kenneth Walker, Running Back, Seattle Seahawks (RB14)

Buy for: Mid-to-Late 2025 1st

The firing of Ryan Grubb implies the Seahawks intend to be much more run-heavy on offense in 2025, in service of their frequently-cited goal of featuring Kenneth Walker. In two previous seasons as an OC, the newly-hired Klint Kubiak’s offenses have ranked 10th and 1st in total running back targets. And his outside zone scheme is a perfect fit for Walker in particular.

But you don’t have to believe me about any of this. Instead, you could just ask Klint Kubiak.

Walker is coming off career-highs in target share (12.7%, 5th-best) and XFP/G (16.8, 8th-best), getting featured exactly how HC Mike Macdonald told us he’d be last summer. The only reasons he didn’t post a difference-making fantasy season were injury luck and outlierishly poor run-blocking — both factors that are significantly less stable than volume metrics year-over-year (and therefore, could massively improve quickly).

Walker is only 24 years old, has resoundingly answered the most important question about his profile (whether he can command appropriate target volume), and just averaged the most FPG of his career (16.5). Yet he’s over half a round cheaper in startups than last offseason and can be had for a mid-to-late 1st in a rookie class that’s weak overall.

JJ McCarthy, Quarterback, Minnesota Vikings (QB19)

Buy for: 2025 1.04 (Superflex)

Per reports (seriously, this dude is barely ever wrong), Sam Darnold is incredibly unlikely to be back in Minnesota in 2025. Even if he were to return, it would most likely be on the franchise tag — a scenario in which McCarthy’s dynasty value would simply pause and roll over again to next offseason, like a 2026 rookie draft pick. With that in mind, McCarthy’s short-term outlook is, in my view, heavily weighted toward the value increase that would occur the moment Darnold signs elsewhere.

But more importantly, McCarthy should succeed in fantasy football when he starts playing games. Within this same offense, Darnold just ranked top-10 in FPG (19.1) and fantasy points per dropback (0.52) — two of the most predictive QB stats. Along with the rest of his McShanahan coaching tree brethren, Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell has consistently offered a schematic advantage to his QBs that McCarthy will be next to enjoy.

Beyond just efficiency, volume and raw fantasy production have also been consistent features of O’Connell’s offenses. His squads have ranked top-6 by pass rate over expectation (PROE) in every season he’s been a head coach, with replacement-level talents like Joshua Dobbs (19.9 FPG across four full games) and Nick Mullens (17.9 FPG) finding success under his watch.

It’s hard for me to see how McCarthy fails at this cost — a cheaper price than the rights to one’s pick of this significantly weaker 2025 QB class, in which he’d likely be the NFL’s consensus QB1.

Courtland Sutton, Wide Receiver, Denver Broncos (WR39)

Buy for: Early 2025 2nd

Sutton can be obtained at a heavily discounted price because of his age — he’ll turn 30 and 31 years old during each of his next two seasons. However, according to my study from last offseason, WRs are typically capable of maintaining their production at those ages. Even viewed as a two-year rental, Sutton is still a screaming buy.

The Broncos took off rookie Bo Nix’s training wheels and opened up their offense following their Week 7 bye. From that point on, Sutton averaged 18.1 FPG and a 13.5% first downs per route run rate on 17.2 XFP/G. Over the full season, those marks would have ranked 8th-best, 8th-best, and 7th-best at the position. Those are the numbers of a bonafide fantasy WR1.

And this probably wasn’t just a random late-career blip. In hindsight, Sutton’s ACL + MCL tear in 2020 was career-altering, but he’s now finally gone two consecutive seasons without a lower-body injury. His newfound health showed in his play, as he surprisingly finished top-25 in Average Separation Score despite his previous reputation as a one-dimensional contested catch threat.

Best of all, the Broncos seem unlikely to spend significant capital on another traditional WR this offseason. Sutton was notably the only Broncos WR to run above a 75% route share in any game last year, but HC Sean Payton is more focused on adding an RB or TE to play his “Joker” role while de-emphasizing the need to add a wideout.

Isaac Guerendo, Running Back, San Franciso 49ers (RB43)

Buy for: Early 2025 3rd

With Jordan Mason a restricted free agent and Elijah Mitchell (remember him?) an unrestricted free agent this offseason, there’s a sizable chance Guerendo enters 2025 as the clear RB2 on the 49ers’ depth chart behind a soon-to-be 29-year-old Christian McCaffrey.

Even if the team brings Mason back, Guerendo has proven to be a much more effective McCaffrey replacement, especially in the receiving game — his 1.63 YPRR ranked top-12 among RBs last year, while Mason’s 9% TPRR ranked 2nd-worst. And that’s no surprise, given the massive gap in their separation abilities.

Guerendo averaged 17.9 FPG and an 11.4% target share in games he played on over half of the snaps while commanding 78% of backfield opportunities across his three starts. Those marks would rank 8th-best, 8th-best, and 4th-best over the full season. Despite much of his game action coming with star LT Trent Williams out, Guerendo showed he was capable of consolidating a backfield and turning out RB1-level fantasy performances.

It helps that Guerendo is a 99th-percentile athlete who posted the 4th-best speed score of any RB to attend the NFL Scouting Combine since 2000. Now that we’ve seen flashes of that athleticism translating to on-field fantasy production, I consider a 3rd-round rookie draft pick a bargain of a price to pay for what’s effectively just a bet that Guerendo’s depth chart positioning will survive the offseason.

Sell

James Cook, Running Back, Buffalo Bills (RB9)

Sell for: 2025 1.04

Cook regressed by virtually every metric in 2024 — that is, aside from touchdowns and, therefore, fantasy points scored. It’s, of course, concerning that Cook’s snap share fell to just 48.0% (~RB37) after the Bills drafted Ray Davis in Round 4, and that his target share declined from 9.3% to 7.7% thanks to journeyman Ty Johnson in a year the Bills were starved for receiving threats. But my recommendation to sell largely stems from how Cook’s unsustainable 2024 touchdown efficiency has driven up his price.

Cook averaged 16.7 FPG on just 12.6 XFP/G, meaning he outperformed his volume-based expectation by +4.1 FPOE. We’ve seen talented RBs in the past maintain efficiency well “above expectation” for multiple seasons in a row, but Cook’s FPOE ranked 4th-most behind Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry. It’s impossible to convincingly argue that Cook’s talent is within the same tier as this trio, suggesting to me that regression is likely.

I’m even more confident that’s the case given it’s easy to pinpoint how Cook so thoroughly overperformed: he converted 25% of his red zone carries into touchdowns. That was the highest rate of any qualifying RB, above the best goal-line backs in the league like Henry and David Montgomery. I’m going to bet against Cook sustaining that pace over a larger sample, especially with Josh Allen stealing away ~29% of the team’s red zone attempts off the top.

Even if touchdown regression-related arguments don’t convince you, Cook is still clearly overpriced. In February startups, he’s gone on average 1.5 rounds earlier than Kenneth Walker — a player nearly a full year younger who averaged only 0.2 fewer FPG in 2024. Attempting to get a “plus” out of the Walker or Chuba Hubbard manager is the first move I’d try to make.