Somehow, we’ve entered into some sort of time wormhole and Thanksgiving is now a week away and the fantasy playoffs are a month away. After what felt like an eternity to actually get to a season, this year has just flown by. We’re officially in crunch time where our 4-6, 5-5, and 6-4 squads are on the cusp making/missing the playoffs.
Let’s go through all of the stats you need to get there:
Arizona Cardinals
I’m running out of things to say about Kyler Murray at this point, but this is crazy: His lowest scoring game this year is 21.7 fantasy points. Deshaun Watson is averaging 21.4 FPG.
Murray only needs five more rushing touchdowns to break Cam Newton’s single-season record (14) set back in 2011.
Murray’s weekly finishes this year are truly absurd: QB5 > QB5 > QB10 > QB6 > QB5 > QB3 > QB2 > QB1 > QB2.
In Kenyan Drake’s first game back, he and Chase Edmonds split snaps right down the middle (38 to 36).
In their eight games played together, Drake is averaging 12.1 FPG while Edmonds is averaging 11.8.
Atlanta Falcons (Bye)
Baltimore Ravens
What is going on with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense? One thing is for sure. Jackson is not seeing the field well at all. Per SIS, Jackson is completing just 65% of his throws when he’s in the pocket and not pressured. Only Drew Lock (61%) is worse.
The Ravens desperately need to change up their tendencies, though. Baltimore is 65% run-heavy on first downs, which is the second-highest rate in the league. They’re only averaging 3.9 yards per carry on first down.
For reference, the Browns are the most run-heavy team on first downs (67%) but they’re crushing defenses with 5.2 YPC.
When the Ravens do pass on first down, Jackson is averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and a 107.5 passer rating. That’s borderline elite. Russell Wilson is averaging 8.9 YPA and a 116.1 rating on first down throws.
Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs is the only WR that has scored 10 or more PPR points in every game so far.
Both Bills backs are off of the radar at this point, but Devin Singletary isn’t even really worth rostering. Singletary has just six carries over their last two games while Moss has 16.
Carolina Panthers
Mike Davis’ weekly finishes in his first three starts without CMC: RB9 > RB7 > RB1.
Davis’ finishes in his last four starts without CMC: RB16 > RB30 > RB32 > RB30.
So, what is the problem? Well, Davis’ efficiency has been far worse recently. In his first three games without McCaffrey, Davis averaged 4.9 YPC and 1.7 yards per route run.
Over his last four games, Davis is averaging just 3.6 YPC and 0.6 YPRR.
Chicago Bears
The Bears are averaging just 4.7 yards per play on offense. Only the Jets (4.5) are worse.
They’ve scored on just 32% of their drives, which is the third-worst rate in the league behind only the Eagles (30%) and Jets (26%).
Over the last two seasons, the Bears have scored just 16 touchdowns in the first-half of games. That is, by far, the fewest amount in the league. The Jets have scored 20 first-half TDs since the start of 2019.
Cincinnati Bengals
Tee Higgins is averaging 75.4 yards per game in his starts this year, which would be sixth-most by a rookie WR since the merger.
The Bengals simply have to take A.J. Green off of the field and give his snaps to Auden Tate. Per SIS, Green has seen 24 targets of 15+ air yards which is seventh-most among WRs. Only 2 (two!!) have been caught.
For reference, Tee Higgins has caught 9 of his 19 targets of 15 or more air yards. Tyler Boyd has caught 6-of-12.
Cleveland Browns
In their four games together this season, Kareem Hunt is averaging 16.7 fantasy points per game while Nick Chubb is at 19.2.
For reference, this would make Chubb the RB5 in FPG while Hunt would be the RB12.
Dallas Cowboys (Bye)
Denver Broncos
The Broncos have to be really concerned with what they’re seeing from Drew Lock. Per SIS, Lock has completed just 61% of his passes from a clean pocket which is last in the NFL by far.
Lock has completed 31% of his throws of 15 or more yards downfield, which trails only Dwayne Haskins (19%) for worst in the league.
When Lock has faced man coverage, his passer rating is 37.9 (worst).
Detroit Lions
It only took 10 weeks for the Lions to finally figure out what they have in D’Andre Swift. This past week, Swift set season-highs in snaps (73%) and carries (16). Adrian Peterson had four carries while Kerryon Johnson only got one.
Marvin Jones is averaging 14.7 fantasy points per game without Kenny Golladay and 8.9 FPG with him.
Green Bay Packers
Removing Week 3 when he got injured, Davante Adams is averaging 30.4 fantasy points per game across his six fully healthy games.
That would be the most ever for a receiver, by far. Jerry Rice has the record at 26.2 FPG set in 1987 when he scored 22 TDs in 12 games.
Adams is averaging 13.2 targets per game across his six fully healthy games, which would also be the most ever (target tracking began in 1992). Cardinals WR Rob Moore set the record in 1997 with 13 targets/game.
Houston Texans
- In his first start without David Johnson (concussion), Duke Johnson was Houston’s bell-cow. He handled every single one of the Texans handoffs (14) and played on 54-of-57 snaps.
Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor’s snap rate over the Colts last four games: 59% > 34% > 31% > 25%.
Over their last three games, Jordan Wilkins has 39 carries while Taylor has 24.
Michael Pittman’s involvement has increased in three-straight games since returning from injury in Week 8. In his first game back, he only ran a route on 55% of their passing plays. In Week 9, that figure increased to 85% and peaked this past week to 95% against the Titans.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- With Chris Thompson on I.R., James Robinson is going to be a true bell-cow back. In Week 7 when Thompson sat out, Robinson played on 90% of the Jaguars snaps, he got 22 carries and saw 6 targets.
Kansas City Chiefs (Bye)
Las Vegas Raiders
Over the last two years, Josh Jacobs is averaging 21.1 fantasy points per game in wins.
When the Raiders lose? Jacobs puts up just 9.6 FPG.
Jacobs has scored all 15 of his career touchdowns in wins.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are frustratingly very run-heavy on first down with Justin Herbert under center. Since Week 2, the Chargers are running on 56% of their first downs — which is the fourth-highest rate.
This is despite the fact that Herbert’s 109.7 passer rating on first down is tied with Aaron Rodgers for eighth-best.
Los Angeles Rams
Josh Reynolds leads the Rams in routes run (123) just ahead of Robert Woods (122) and Cooper Kupp (122) over their last three games.
With Reynolds more involved, Robert Woods has seen just 19 targets over the Rams last three games while Reynolds has 29 passing looks and Kupp has seen 33.
The Rams went with a full-blown three man timeshare this past week at running back. Malcolm Brown (41% snap share) led the way followed by Darrell Henderson (33%) and Cam Akers (26%).
Miami Dolphins
This is Tua Tagovailoa’s target distribution so far: DeVante Parker (19), Jakeem Grant (13), and Mike Gesicki (11).
The Dolphins are playing extremely slow and just relying on their defense to try and win games with Tua under center. In Week 1-7 with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, the Dolphins averaged 61.2 plays per game.
Over their last three with Tua, they’re averaging just 53.7 plays — which would be the fewest in the league by far.
Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson is averaging 84.7 yards per game, which would be third-most since the merger by a rookie wideout. Only Odell Beckham (108.8) and Anquan Boldin (86.1) rank higher.
Adam Thielen already has 9 touchdowns, which matches a career-high.
New England Patriots
Damien Harris is fifth among RBs with 78.5 rushing yards per game, trailing only Dalvin Cook (119.3), Derrick Henry (105.1), Nick Chubb (92.2), and Miles Sanders (86.5).
Harris has averaged over 5 yards per carry in 5-of-6 games this year.
New Orleans Saints
Jameis Winston targeted Michael Thomas five times on 10 attempts in place of Drew Brees this past week.
Thomas faces the Falcons twice over the next three weeks. In eight career games against them, Thomas has scored 20+ fantasy points against them five times.
Atlanta is allowing 215.1 yards (second-most) and 44.5 fantasy points (third-most) per game to receivers.
New York Giants
The Giants have won six games with Daniel Jones at quarterback. Five have come against the NFC East. Four of those 5 wins were against Washington.
Since returning back from injury in Week 7, Sterling Shepard has six or more receptions in four-straight games.
New York Jets (Bye)
Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Reagor led the Eagles in routes run this past week (39-of-43).
Reagor faces four secondaries in the bottom-7 of fantasy points allowed to WRs over his next six games (Browns / Seahawks / Cardinals / Cowboys).
Miles Sanders got his normal role in his return from a knee injury (72% snap share; 15-of-21 carries), but just got unlucky with Boston Scott’s long TD and Corey Clement vulturing him.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Diontae Johnson is averaging 10.3 targets in the six games he’s finished this season.
Ben Roethlisberger’s target distribution in games where Johnson plays/doesn’t leave early: Johnson (63), JuJu Smith-Schuster (57), Chase Claypool (38), and Eric Ebron (32).
San Francisco 49ers
- Over his last four games with Deebo Samuel out, Brandon Aiyuk has finished as the weekly WR13, WR19, WR6, and WR12 and has seen 39 targets.
Seattle Seahawks
In Seattle’s first five games, Russell Wilson’s touchdown rate (TDs divided by attempts) was 11%.
Over their last four games, Wilson’s TD rate has fallen to a much more normal 5.4%.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady’s target distribution over the last two weeks: Mike Evans (17), Antonio Brown (13), Chris Godwin (12), and Rob Gronkowski (9).
Ronald Jones is averaging 3.7 yards after contact and 0.16 missed tackles forced per carry while Leonard Fournette is averaging 2.8 YAC and 0.12 missed tackles forced.
RoJo has gained 5+ yards on 35% of his carries while Fournette has done so 27% of the time.
Per SIS, 41% of RoJo’s carries have generated positive expected points while just 34% of Fournette’s carries have been successful.
Tennessee Titans
- In now three career games against the Colts, A.J. Brown has been held to 3/25, 3/45, and 1/21.
Washington
Alex Smith’s target distribution so far: J.D. McKissic (33, lol), Terry McLaurin (19), Logan Thomas (14), Isaiah Wright (10), Cam Sims (9), and Antonio Gibson (7).
Over the last two weeks, McKissic has run 71 routes to Gibson’s 33.
Terry McLaurin is the only receiver that has seen 7 or more targets in every single game this season.
