2024 Week 8 DFS Early Look

Week 7 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, meaning Week 8 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 8 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 8 DFS:

Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears (@ WAS)

DraftKings: $6,000 (QB14) | FanDuel: $7,400 (QB15)

Williams has three games of over 23.0 DraftKings points this season, and all of those games came against defenses that rank among the eight softest by schedule-adjusted passing FPG allowed. And, well, Washington ranks as the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted defense for opposing passers this season.

The 26.5 DraftKings FPG Williams has averaged against poor pass defenses would lead all slate-eligible QBs over the full season. That’s great, and I’m sure it means Williams – whose PFF passing grade has improved every week since Week 2 – will project as a solid value around the industry. But what this game needs to be juicy for tournaments is a healthy Jayden Daniels. Daniels is week-to-week with a rib injury right now, and if he plays – this should be right there as the highest-total game on the slate. And we know Williams is capable of a monster fantasy score if this turns into a shootout environment against a bottom-5 pass defense.

Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens (@ CLE)

DraftKings: $8,100 (RB2) | FanDuel: $9,200 (RB1)

Fading Derrick Henry as a massive favorite is always a dangerous game. Baltimore is favored by 10.0 points this week, and Henry averages +9.3 more FPG in wins (22.8) than losses (13.5) since 2022. And this season, we’ve seen Henry score over 25.0 fantasy points in 75% of the Ravens’ wins (pre-Monday Night Football).

Cleveland is a neutral on-paper matchup – but they have notably struggled with explosive runs, allowing the 5th-highest explosive run rate (6.9%) in the NFL. Since Week 3, Derrick Henry has gained 298 yards on explosive runs (1st), constituting 52% of his total rushing yardage. Cleveland will have their hands full trying to stop Henry from ripping game-breaking runs in Week 8.

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets (@ NE)

DraftKings: $7,300 (RB8) | FanDuel: $7,900 (RB12)

Hall has averaged 20.7 XFP/G, 24.0 FPG, and an 84% snap share since Todd Downing took over as the Jets offensive coordinator. Over the full season, those numbers would rank best, best, and 2nd-best (behind only Kyren Williams). Simply put, the workload for Hall demands an $8,000 DraftKings price tag – but he’s not even close to it this week.

New England is a top-6 on-paper matchup, but the Jets' being a 7.0-point favorite is really what makes Hall exciting. Hall averages +11.8 more FPG in wins (22.6) relative to losses (10.8) since the start of his career. His per-snap productivity jumps +110% while leading, and – under the Jets' new OC – Hall has earned 85% of New York’s backfield opportunities while leading. Recent usage, his matchup, and the game environment all point to a massive performance here.

Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (@ LV)

DraftKings: $6,300 (RB19) | FanDuel: $8,100 (RB9)

Hunt has averaged 20.3 XFP/G and 20.5 FPG since Week 5 – both top-5 marks at the position over that stretch. Sure, he’s looked a bit dusty, ranking 31st (of 42 qualifiers) in YPC (4.0), and dead last in explosive run rate (0%). Maybe Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Week 7 healthy scratch) eventually gets up to speed and starts eating into Hunt’s RB1 workload, but I’m highly skeptical that will happen in just one week.

And that leaves Hunt with a truly elite matchup. The Raiders rank as the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+4.1 FPG) – giving up the league’s 6th-highest YPC (4.8). If Hunt is looking at 20-plus carries in one of the best rushing matchups on the slate, he’s obviously a great value.

De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins (VS. ARI)

DraftKings: $6,200 (RB22) | FanDuel: $6,800 (RB23)

Tua Tagovailoa could come back in Week 8, which makes Achane’s price on both DFS sites look like a massive discount.

Achane has averaged 18.8 XFP/G in his five fully healthy games – which ranks 3rd-best among RBs over the full season and is better than players like Kyren Williams, Kenneth Walker, and Saquon Barkley. Again, that’s incredible usage – but Achane needs some semblance of offensive efficiency to turn that usage into production. Tagovailoa’s return could ignite an offense that hasn’t scored more than 12 points since Week 1. And if Miami’s offense gets going, we know Achane could break the slate – especially at such a reasonable price.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins (VS. ARI)

DraftKings: $7,000 (WR10) | FanDuel: $7,600 (WR13)

Tua Tagovailoa could return this week – and there might not be another player more positively impacted than Tyreek Hill. This is the cheapest Hill has been as a Dolphin since his debut game in Week 1 of 2022 – he’s $1,700 cheaper than he was in Week 1 of this season.

And – with Tagovailoa as his QB – he’s been absurdly good for fantasy. Hill averages 22.2 FPG in his 31 games with Tagovailoa, exceeding 30.0 DraftKings points in 36% of those games. If Hill has a 36% chance to go for 4X his DraftKings salary, he should be right there as the highest-owned player on the slate, assuming Tagovailoa is under center.

Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers (@ JAX)

DraftKings: $6,700 (WR14) | FanDuel: $8,100 (WR8)

Reed (86%) and Romeo Doubs (86%) were the only Packers WRs to earn a route share over 50% in Week 7. While that didn’t translate to a notable fantasy performance for Reed, it is notable that he’s looking at, by far, the best possible matchup for WRs this week.

Jacksonville is the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+13.3 FPG), allowing the 2nd-most passing YPG (288.6), the highest passer rating (113.7), and the 4th-highest YPA (8.0) in the NFL. This is an incredible matchup for a player that can nuclear on minimal volume (zero games over 8 targets, two games over 27.0 fantasy points), which makes Reed quite an exciting tournament play.

Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns (VS. BAL)

DraftKings: $3,300 (WR96) | FanDuel: $5,100 (WR70)

No WR earned better usage on Sunday than Cedric Tillman (24.2 XFP). You read that right – Tillman led Week 7 WRs in first-read targets (10), ranked 3rd in air yards (126), and scored more fantasy points (18.1) than Ja’Marr Chase.

He’s now a full-time player (80% route share) in one of the league’s worst offenses. But his near-minimum price offsets any efficiency concerns. And Tillman should be fine regardless of who starts at QB for the Browns – Dorian Thompson-Robinson targeted Tillman 7 times for a 30% target share in only one half of play. When Jameis Winston replaced him, Tillman still earned another two targets in the game's final four minutes. For Week 8, Tillman gets a top-4 schedule-adjusted matchup (+4.2 FPG) against Baltimore, and Cleveland is listed as a 10-point underdog. Tillman is the cheapest bet on volume you can make this week.

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders (VS. KC)

DraftKings: $6,100 (TE1) | FanDuel: $7,400 (TE2)

Bowers is averaging 18.2 XFP/G and is being targeted on 33% of his routes with Davante Adams out of the lineup. Over the full season, a 0.33 TPRR would tie Malik Nabers for the NFL lead, and 18.2 XFP/G would rank 7th-best among all players (ahead of Kyren Williams, Drake London, and CeeDee Lamb). This is incredible usage for Bowers – and we don’t expect it to slow down against Kansas City, as the Chiefs rank as the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs this season (+6.3 FPG).

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns (VS. BAL)

DraftKings: $5,100 (TE4) | FanDuel: $5,500 (TE14)

Njoku was every part of the PPR scam that was promised without Amari Cooper in the lineup. Njoku led all players at all positions in expected fantasy points (26.7) on Sunday – his 14 targets were the most by any TE in any game this season, and the 9th-most by any TE since 2021. His volume could resemble that of a high-end WR2 for the rest of the season, and yet Njoku is priced like a WR4 on DraftKings and a WR5 (!) on FanDuel. He’s a screaming value (especially if Jameis Winston starts) to the point that he will rival RBs and WRs as a flex option this week.