2024 Week 6 DFS Early Look

Week 5 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, meaning Week 6 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 6 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 6 DFS.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (VS. WAS)

DraftKings: $7,800 (QB1) | FanDuel: $9,500 (QB1)

Jackson is expensive, but that’s the only bad thing you can say about him. He’s averaging 16% more DraftKings FPG (26.1) than the next-closest slate-eligible QB, but he only costs $500 (1% of your salary) more than the slate’s QB2.

I could waste 1,000 words on how impressive Jackson has been, but the matchup is more worthy of analysis. Washington has allowed the 2nd-highest passer rating (114.7) and ranks as the 7th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs through the air (+3.7 FPG). And unlike last season, the Commanders’ offense is good enough to push opponents toward a ceiling performance, which explains the slate-leading total (52.5). I’m rarely excited to play a QB as expensive as Jackson, but this week couldn’t line up much better for him.

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (@ GB)

DraftKings: $6,800 (QB5) | FanDuel: $7,800 (QB9)

Murray has had his fair share of duds this season – falling under 16.0 DraftKings points in 60% of his games thus far. But for Week 6, he gets the 3rd-best game environment of the slate (49.5 total). Since 2020, Murray has averaged 24.3 DraftKings FPG in games with a total of 49.0 or higher, scoring over 38.0 DraftKings points in 15% of those games.

This Green Bay defense has been incredibly vulnerable. They are a top-10 schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs through the air, and they’ve posted the 4th-lowest pressure rate over expectation. Since 2022, Murray has seen a +35% boost to his FP/DB on non-pressured dropbacks.

This is a fantastic spot for a QB who has been highly volatile for fantasy purposes this season, making him an ideal tournament play this week.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions (@ DAL)

DraftKings: $7,000 (RB5) | FanDuel: $7,800 (RB9)

The Lions and Cowboys game touts one of the highest totals (52.5) we’ve seen all season. Detroit’s backfield is the most productive in fantasy (35.8 FPG), and the Cowboys' defense is among the softest schedule-adjusted matchups for opposing RBs. Long story short, this is a fantastic spot for Gibbs.

Of course, the issue with Gibbs is his relative lack of TD equity, given his workload. David Montgomery has the 4th-most rushing TDs since 2023. But Gibbs’ red zone usage is better than ever – he’s averaging 5.0 red zone opportunities per game, the 4th-most among all RBs, and +1.9 more red zone opportunities per game than he was averaging last season (3.1). Even with Montgomery in the fold, Gibbs has earned more XTDs than Jordan Mason, Kenneth Walker, and Breece Hall. And if the TD upside, matchup, and game environment are all there, then we know Gibbs is a great play for DFS tournaments.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons (VS. CAR)

DraftKings: $6,600 (RB9) | FanDuel: $8,500 (RB4)

The Carolina Panthers' run defense is a true disaster. They are allowing the 6th-most rushing YPG (144.6), and they rank as the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs on the ground. They’ve been just as bad at defending zone run concepts, allowing the 5th-highest YPC (4.8) and the 5th-highest success rate (55%). Zone runs constitute 82% of Bijan Robinson’s rush attempts this season – so this is a perfect schematic matchup.

Robinson has disappointed for fantasy this season, but he’s still earning 74% of XFP (8th-most) in a backfield that hasn’t had a top-10 schedule-adjusted matchup to date. That all changes this week, and it makes a very tempting play, given his reasonable DraftKings price.

Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans (VS. IND)

DraftKings: $6,000 (RB15) | FanDuel: $7,000 (RB14)

Pollard’s usage has been pretty damn great; even if we just look at the games where Tyjae Spears was completely healthy, Pollard is averaging 17.2 XFP/G. Over the full season, 17.2 XFP/G would rank 6th-best among RBs. I’m always cautious about timeshare RBs, but Pollard is on the right side of this one – especially inside the 10, where his snap share jumps from 64% to 81% (just behind Saquon Barkley over the full season).

Of course, we need to acknowledge the elite matchup. The Colts are the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs on the ground (+3.1 rushing FPG), allowing the 2nd-most rushing YPG (157.0). Will Levis can’t seem to get it done through the air, but Pollard should be able to do whatever he wants on the ground against this run defense.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders (VS. BAL)

DraftKings: $6,400 (WR15) | FanDuel: $6,800 (WR19)

Let’s get the obvious out of the way – this is tied for the best game environment on the slate (52.5 total), and Jayden Daniels is playing like he’s the best QB in the NFL…

Terry McLaurin has benefitted, but we haven’t seen the blowup game yet – he hasn’t scored more than 24.0 DraftKings points this season.

But things should be different against Baltimore. The Ravens have the 8th-lowest pressure rate over expectation in the NFL (-2.3%). McLaurin – who runs deeper routes (14.7 aDOT) that need extra time to develop – has seen his FP/RR jump by +135% on non-pressured dropbacks since last season. A lack of pressure is key to his success, and he should feast against a Ravens defense that’s allowed the 3rd-most deep passing YPG (74.0) this season.

Darnell Mooney, WR, Atlanta Falcons (@ CAR)

DraftKings: $5,300 (WR27) | FanDuel: $6,500 (WR22)

Mooney is the WR15 by XFP/G (15.6). He’s seeing dramatically better usage than his price on both DFS sites would imply – and he’s been playing great. His 1.94 YPRR is a career-high, and he’s earning targets on a per-route basis at a higher rate than CeeDee Lamb. The film looks even better than the stats…

Now Mooney gets a Carolina defense that has allowed the 2nd-most FPG (28.1) to outside WRs and can’t pressure opposing QBs. It’s an excellent matchup for one of the most underpriced players on the slate, making Mooney an easy click.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers (VS. ARI)

DraftKings: $5,200 (WR27) | FanDuel: $6,000 (WR30)

Wicks scored just 4.0 fantasy points on Sunday – but he still tied for the team lead in target share (23%) and led the team in air yard share (44%). You shouldn’t let his poor Week 5 scare you off an outstanding profile. Wicks was about as effective at generating first downs last season as Keenan Allen and Ja’Marr Chase. He ranks top-15 in separation score this season, after posting absurdly impressive separation numbers on some of the most important routes in football last year.

And the matchup this week looks excellent – Arizona is allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points per target (2.08), and the single-highest passer rating (125.1) to opposing WRs on the outside. San Francisco posted their highest pass rate over expectation (+10.1%) since at least 2022 against Arizona in Week 5 – largely because this is among the most exploitable pass defenses in the NFL. I expect Green Bay to recognize that, too – so I’m excited to return to Wicks after he failed as chalk in Week 5.

Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dallas Cowboys (VS. DET)

DraftKings: $5,000 (WR31) | FanDuel: $6,100 (WR29)

Over the last two weeks, Tolbert (13) has earned 2 fewer targets than CeeDee Lamb (15). The offense has become incredibly concentrated now that Brandin Cooks is on IR – and Tolbert’s usage has gotten the biggest bump; he was the WR14 by XFP (19.2) in Week 5. Dak Prescott has noted Tolbert’s usage bump shouldn’t be a surprise…

Now, he gets the slate-best game environment (52.5 total) against a Lions defense that has allowed the third-most receiving YPG (127.5) to opposing outside WRs. I want to buy before the breakout becomes more accepted industry-wide.

Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys (VS. DET)

DraftKings: $5,000 (TE5) | FanDuel: $6,100 (TE6)

Ferguson ranks 1st among slate-eligible TEs in XFP/G (12.6), 2nd in TPRR (0.27), and 2nd in first-read targets (23) – despite one fewer game than Brock Bowers. Over his last 11 games, he averages 7.8 targets per game and 13.9 FPG. Those numbers both rank 1st among slate-eligible TEs this season.

He’s playing in the best game environment on the slate, and while the matchup doesn’t appear particularly favorable on paper, he’s one of the most obvious values on the slate at the TE position.