I recently wrapped up my 2023 NFL Betting Previews for all 32 teams, and I’d encourage you to check them out for in-depth breakdowns of season win totals, Super Bowl odds, individual player props, and much more. With those previews done, it’s time to take a look at the 2023 NFL Rushing Leader Futures to see if we can’t pick out a winner or two. Everyone likes to lay a little bit of money to win a lot of money, and I’ve come up with my favorite plays for each of the major leader futures for passers, runners, and receivers.
Patrick Mahomes continued to add to his impressive resume with NFL-best marks of 5250 passing yards (+800) and 41 TD passes (+800). Dak Prescott (+5000) and Davis Mills (+800) shared the dishonor of throwing the most interceptions with 15 — Dak threw his INTs in just 12 games.
Justin Herbert is the favorite to repeat as the league leader in passing yards (+300) and passing TDs (+275), followed closely by contenders like Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert in each category. Allen and Prescott are the co-favorites to throw the most interceptions at +1000 odds.
The odds in this article are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook — under NFL/League Leaders. Historical odds are courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.
Passing Yards
Previous Leaders
| Year | Quarterback (Age) | Passing Yards | Odds (rank) |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes, KC (26) | 5250 | +800 (2nd) |
| 2021 | Tom Brady, TB (44) | 5316 | +900 (3rd) |
| 2020 | Deshaun Watson, Hou (24) | 4823 | +2000 (10th) |
| 2019 | Jameis Winston, TB (25) | 5109 | +950 (5th) |
| 2018 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pit (36) | 5129 | +1000 (t-4th) |
| 2017 | Tom Brady, NE (40) | 4577 | +600 (2nd) |
| 2016 | Drew Brees, NO (37) | 5208 | +525 (1st) |
| 2015 | Drew Brees, NO (36) | 4870 | +650 (2nd) |
| 2014 | Brees (35)/Roethlisberger (32) | 4952 | +200 (1st)/N/A |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning, Den (37) | 5477 | +550 (2nd) |
Historical Hints
The favorite hasn’t led the league in passing yards since Drew Brees did it back in 2016 at +525 odds. Brees is the only favorite to take home the honors in the last decade, which he did twice in the last 11 years. The eventual leader has come from inside the top five in odds in 10 of the last 11 years. Deshaun Watson’s 2020 campaign was the lone outlier in that span when he won with the 10th-best odds at +2000.
The league leader has skewed younger in recent years, with three of the last four winners checking in at 26 years old or younger. Tom Brady was the lone exception at 44 years old in 2021. The league leader in passing yards has reached 4800+ yards in nine of the last 10 years, which means this year’s leader will likely have to average at least 300+ yards per game in 16-17 games.
Fantasy Points Projections Top 10
| Quarterback | Projection | Odds |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 5100 | +300 |
| Joe Burrow (Cin) | 4775 | +900 |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 4770 | +650 |
| Trevor Lawrence (Jax) | 4665 | +1800 |
| Kirk Cousins (Min) | 4500 | +1000 |
| Deshaun Watson (Cle) | 4450 | +3000 |
| Jared Goff (Det) | 4285 | +2500 |
| Josh Allen (Buf) | 4250 | +800 |
| Geno Smith (Sea) | 4195 | +3500 |
| Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) | 4135 | +2000 |
The Favorites
Patrick Mahomes (+300) is the heavy favorite to repeat as the passing yardage champion after crossing 5000+ passing yards for the first time since his breakout 2018 campaign. Our projections have him throwing more than 300+ yards than the next closest QB, Joe Burrow (+900). Burrow’s attempts per game rose dramatically from 2021 to 2022 (32.5<37.9), but he threw for fewer passing YPG (288.2>279.7), which wasn’t helped by Ja’Marr Chase missing a month last season.
Justin Herbert (+650) has 1100+ more passing yards than the next closest quarterback, Andrew Luck, through three NFL seasons with 14,089 yards. He’s thrown for 4700+ yards in each of the last two seasons but is still looking for his first title after finishing as the runner-up in consecutive campaigns. Herbert should be close to a co-favorite with Mahomes in this category.
Josh Allen (+800) and Kirk Cousins (+1000) round out the top of the betting board. Allen has averaged more than 35+ attempts per game in each of his last three seasons, and Cousins is coming off his most passing yards in five seasons as a Viking with 4547 yards.
The Contenders
Tua Tagovailoa (+2200) is a compelling option if he can manage to stay healthy for 17 games. He finished as the league’s most efficient passer in TD rate (6.3%), YPA (8.9), and QB rating (105.5) in his first season working with Tyreek Hill and Mike McDaniel. He averaged 286.5 passing YPG in the 12 games when he played more than 72% of the snaps or more. Matthew Stafford is another injury-discounted contender on this leaderboard. He averaged 287.4 passing YPG in his first season with the Rams in 2021. Stafford could get extreme passing volume with the Rams fielding potentially one of the league’s worst defenses with a cast of no-names next to Aaron Donald.
Dark Horses
I didn’t think I would be betting on Derek Carr (+3500) when I started researching these passing leader futures, but his odds are too long to pass up. He had 4800+ passing yards just two years ago and averaged 7.8 YPA in 2019-21 before Josh McDaniels arrived in 2022. Carr has averaged a healthy 34.9 attempts per game to open his career, and it wasn’t too long ago that Pete Carmichael served as the OC during Drew Brees’ three-year run as the passing yards leader in 2014-16. If Michael Thomas manages to stay healthy, Carr will theoretically have a top-flight receiving corps with Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, and Alvin Kamara also in the mix. New Orleans also boasts the NFL’s easiest schedule based on season win totals, with 13 games played indoors. Everything is lining up for Carr to be a sneaky sleeper in this category.
Passing Touchdowns
Previous Leaders
| Year | Quarterback (Age) | Passing TDs | Odds (rank) |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes, KC (26) | 41 | +800 (5th) |
| 2021 | Tom Brady, TB (44) | 43 | +500 (2nd) |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers, GB (36) | 48 | +2000 (t-11th) |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson, Bal (22) | 36 | +22500 (34th) |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes, KC (22) | 50 | +3100 (16th) |
| 2017 | Russell Wilson, Sea (28) | 34 | +3300 (t-11th) |
| 2016 | Aaron Rodgers, GB (32) | 40 | N/A |
| 2015 | Tom Brady, NE (38) | 36 | N/A |
| 2014 | Andrew Luck, Ind (24) | 40 | N/A |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning, Den (37) | 55 | N/A |
Historical Hints
We have odds from only the last six seasons, but this has been a market to bet players with longer odds. Quarterbacks with +2000 odds or longer threw for the most TDs in 2017-20 before Tom Brady (+500) and Patrick Mahomes (+800) won as top-five favorites the last two years. Lamar Jackson had longer odds to throw the most TDs in 2019 than the likes of Dwayne Haskins (+15000), Josh Rosen (+20000), and Case Keenum (+20000). He had the 34th-longest odds, which means he had longer odds than some backup QBs.
Fantasy Points Projections Top 10
| Quarterback | Projection | Odds |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 39 | +275 |
| Joe Burrow (Cin) | 37 | +450 |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 33 | +1100 |
| Trevor Lawrence (Jax) | 33 | +3500 |
| Kirk Cousins (Min) | 31 | +2200 |
| Josh Allen (Buf) | 30 | +500 |
| Deshaun Watson (Cle) | 29 | +4000 |
| Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) | 29 | +650 |
| Dak Prescott (Dal) | 28 | +1600 |
| Geno Smith (Sea) | 27 | +3000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) | 27 | +1600 |
| Lamar Jackson (Bal) | 27 | +3000 |
The Favorites
Patrick Mahomes (+275) has another sizable lead in another passing leader future, but sportsbooks are projecting the race for the most passing TDs to be a little tighter. Mahomes won his second passing TD title crown in 2022 with 41 scores, and his floor has been 37+ passing TDs in four of his five seasons as a starter. He owns a Super Bowl-era best 6.4% career TD rate, which ranks ahead of #2 on the list, Aaron Rodgers (+650), at 6.2%. A-Rod is coming off a sub-par campaign in his final season with the Packers, averaging an ugly 6.8 YPA with a 4.8% TD rate, but he’s twice led the league in TD passes (2020, 2016).
Joe Burrow (+450) and Josh Allen (+500) are the closest pursuers to Mahomes heading into the season. Burrow has thrown for 35 and 34 TDs in each of the last two years, and he ranks behind only Mahomes passing TDs per game (2.16) in that span. Allen’s TD floor has been 35+ scores in each of his last three seasons, with a ceiling of 37 TDs in 2020. He’s the one quarterback at the top of the board who hurts his own chances of leading the NFL in passing TDs by averaging 7.6 rushing TDs per season to open his career.
The Contenders
Geno Smith (+3000) literally came out of nowhere to win the Comeback Player of the Year award with no preseason odds. He tied Mahomes for the most games with 2+ TD passes with 12 and he was one of four QBs to throw for 30+ TDs last season. Smith already had one of the best WR tandems in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and they drafted the best WR in this year’s rookie class in Jaxon Smith-Njigba to give this passing attack even more upside.
I noted earlier that Mahomes and Rodgers rank first and second in TD rate in the Super Bowl era, and Lamar Jackson (+3000) is the next quarterback behind them with 6.1% career TD rate. He previously led the NFL with 36 TD passes during his 2019 MVP season, and the Ravens are expected to move to a more pass-heavy attack under new OC Todd Monken — they also added Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers this off-season.
Dark Horses
It might be a year early to bet on Trevor Lawrence (+3500) to lead the league TD passes, but his odds are too juicy to pass up — BetMGM Sportsbook has T-Law at +4000 odds. The bet is even more intriguing, with stud receiver Calvin Ridley reportedly tearing up camp next to Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones. Lawrence showed a healthy ceiling several times in 2022 with 3+ TD passes in five of 19 games (postseason included), which was quite the turnaround from his rookie campaign when he threw for more INTs (17) than TDs (12). Our projections have him tied with Herbert for third with 33 TD passes, which makes him easily the best value on the board.
Interceptions
Previous Leaders
| Year | Quarterback (Age) | Interceptions | Odds (rank) |
| 2022 | Prescott, Dal (29), Mills, Hou (23) | 15 | +5000 (t-28th), +800 (t-1st) |
| 2021 | Stafford, LAR (33), Lawrence, Jax (21) | 17 | +3000 (t-13th), +1600 (t-7th) |
| 2020 | Lock, Den (23), Wentz, Phi (27) | 15 | +2200 (t-14th), +4000 (t-24th) |
| 2019 | Jameis Winston, TB (25) | 30 | +800 (t-1st) |
| 2018 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pit (36) | 16 | +900 (t-3rd) |
| 2017 | DeShone Kizer, Cle (21) | 22 | N/A |
| 2016 | Philip Rivers, SD (34) | 21 | N/A |
| 2015 | Blake Bortles, Jax (23) | 18 | N/A |
| 2014 | Jay Cutler, Chi (31)/Rivers, SD (32) | 18 | N/A |
| 2013 | Eli Manning, NYG (32) | 27 | N/A |
Historical Hints
We have odds for only the last five years at our disposal. We’ve seen a mix of favorites and long shots throw the most interceptions, including last season with Davis Mills (+800) and Dak Prescott (+5000) doing it. Those two quarterbacks combined for an incredibly low 873 pass attempts. Drew Lock and Carson Wentz tied for the league lead while each attempting fewer than 450 passes in 2020. The other four quarterbacks to lead the league in INTs since 2018 have each attempted 600+ passes. Looking for quarterbacks with sheer passing volume is the best starting point for looking for value in this market.
Fantasy Points Projections Top 10
| Quarterback | INT Projection | Attempts Projection | Odds |
| Dak Prescott | 15 | 510 | +1000 |
| Josh Allen | 13 | 565 | +1000 |
| Russell Wilson | 13 | 550 | +4000 |
| Justin Fields | 13 | 445 | +3000 |
| Geno Smith | 12 | 545 | +2500 |
| Derek Carr | 12 | 560 | +2500 |
| Matthew Stafford | 12 | 510 | +1400 |
| Jordan Love | 12 | 540 | +1300 |
| C.J. Stroud | 12 | 540 | +2500 |
Turnover Worthy Throw Rate is among the many stats available in our “Advanced Passing” table in our Fantasy Points Data package.
The Favorites
The competition to throw the most interceptions is the most wide-open of the three quarterback league leader categories. It features no quarterbacks at shorter than 10/1 odds and nine quarterbacks between +1000 and +1600. Dak Prescott (+1000) and Josh Allen (+1000) are the favorites to throw the most interceptions after Prescott tied Davis Mills with the most picks with 15 last season. Prescott hasn’t topped an INT rate of 1.8 % in each of his previous four seasons before it ballooned to 3.8% last year. He had some bad INT luck with his turnover-worthy throw rate sitting just above his INT rate at 4.1%. Allen has thrown 9+ INTs in each of his first five seasons with a career 2.3% INT rate, and he’s averaged 595 pass attempts per season over the last three years. He’s the deserving favorite to lead the league in picks with his combination of passing volume and his rate of turnover-worthy throws, which sat at 4.2% in 2022.
The Contenders
Geno Smith (+2500) earned his Comeback Player of the Year award, but he had some good fortune on his side, as well. He owned an INT rate of just 1.9% with 11 picks on 572 attempts, and his interception total could’ve been as high as 26 INTs based on his third-highest turnover-worthy throw rate of 4.5%. Geno opened his career with 21 INTs as a rookie and 34 picks and a 4.2% INT rate in his first two seasons.
C.J. Stroud (+2000) will look to avoid his own rocky start to his career and also follow in the steps of his predecessor, Mills, who led the league with 15 INTs last season. Stroud threw just 12 INTs on 830 attempts (1.4%) at Ohio State, but the degree of difficulty is going to ramp up going from one of the best NCAA teams to one of the worst NFL teams. Sportsbooks have the Texans lined for the second-fewest victories at 6.5 wins, which means Stroud could be chasing points quite a bit. The Texans finished with the third-most fourth-quarter pass attempts (199) and tied for the most fourth-quarter INTs (9) last season (per Fantasy Points Data). I’m betting Stroud at his longer odds with him headed toward starting Week 1 with a long leash to learn on the job.
Dark Horses
I’m betting another rookie long shot to lead the NFL in interceptions. First overall pick Bryce Young (+3000) has had issues protecting the rock early in training camp with 4 INTs in four straight practices. Our Brett Whitefield’s biggest concern for Young was his “obscenely slow trigger,” and it’s already playing out in practice. The young QB is trying to fit the ball into tight windows, and he’s not used to the speed of NFL defenders after playing in pristine conditions with receivers running wide open all the time at Alabama — he threw just 12 INTs on 927 attempts (1.3%) in 2021-22. It doesn’t help that Young is only 5’10” and playing behind a starting O-line with an average height of 6’5” with no one shorter than 6’4”, and he’ll throw to arguably the NFL’s worst receiving corps. HC Frank Reich already named Young the starting QB and Reich should keep on the field to learn on the job.
Lamar Jackson (+3000) is another intriguing option with longer odds. He’s thrown 29 INTs on only 1084 attempts (2.7%) in 39 games in the last three years. The Ravens are expected to pick up the pace and move to a more pass-heavy attack under new OC Todd Monken, which could result in easily the most volume of his career after never topping 401 attempts in his first five seasons.
Best Bets
Derek Carr (NO) most passing yards (+3500, DraftKings). Risk .5 units to win 17.5 units. Placed Aug. 1.
Trevor Lawrence (Jax) most passing TDs (+4000, BetMGM). Risk .5 units to win 20 units. Placed Aug. 2.
C.J. Stroud (Hou) most interceptions thrown (+2000, DraftKings). Risk one unit to win 20 units. Placed Aug. 2.
Bryce Young (Car) most interceptions thrown (+3000, DraftKings). Risk .5 units to win 15 units.
