We finally made it to the league’s first big event since Super Bowl LVII, and there’s plenty of fallout from the 2023 NFL Draft. This year’s rookie class is obviously getting most of the spotlight, but the selection of these prospects will also have a huge impact on their new teammates for the upcoming season. Let’s dive in to see which veteran players are looking better and which veteran players are looking worse for fantasy for the 2023 season based on the results of the NFL Draft.
PLAYERS WHO AVOIDED DRAFT LANDMINES
Quarterbacks
Desmond Ridder (Atl)
Mac Jones (NE)
Geno Smith (Sea)
Baker Mayfield/Kyle Trask (TB)
Sam Howell (Was)
Running Backs
James Conner (Ari)
J.K Dobbins (Bal)
Joe Mixon (Cin)
Tony Pollard (Dal)
Javonte Williams/Samaje Perine (Den)
Isiah Pacheco (KC)
Austin Ekeler (LAC)
Cam Akers (LAR)
Dalvin Cook (Min)
Rhamondre Steveson (NE)
Rachaad White (TB)
Brian Robinson/Antonio Gibson (Was)
Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
Gabe Davis (Buf)
Irv Smith (Cin)
Marvin Jones (Det)
Gerald Everett (LAC)
Van Jefferson (LAR)
Tyquan Thornton/DeVante Parker/Kendrick Bourne (NE)
Rashid Shaheed/Juwan Johnson (NO)
Cade Otton (TB)
Treylon Burks/Chig Okonkwo (Ten)
UPGRADES
Players whom we’re feeling more optimistic about based on the selections and trades coming out of the 2023 Draft.
QUARTERBACKS
Lamar Jackson (Bal) — Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens finally came to terms on a new contract (five years, $185 million guaranteed), ending Lamar’s 27-month search for a long-term deal. Jackson had his last two seasons sidetracked by ankle and PCL injuries, which derailed Baltimore’s Super Bowl ambitions in each campaign. Lamar was the second-favorite for the MVP at +550 odds after opening the season with 749/10 passing and 243/2 rushing in his first three games. He posted just seven passing TDs and one rushing TD in his final nine games, but the Ravens still finished sixth in PPG (24.1) with Lamar compared to 27th in PPG (14.1) without him in the lineup.
Lamar and Justin Fields are neck-and-neck as the league’s most dynamic running quarterbacks entering 2023. Jackson finished behind only Fields in rushing yards (764) among QBs despite missing the final five games, and he’s averaging 9.0 FPG as a runner since becoming Baltimore’s full-time starter in 2019. Lamar has seen his FPG drop each of the last four seasons (28.2>23.1>21.3>20.4), and he averaged fewer than 7.0 YPA last season for the first time with Baltimore’s WR corps becoming the worst in the league. The Ravens finally threw him a bone by signing Odell Beckham, drafting Zay Flowers, and hiring Todd Monken to call plays, who is an Air Raid guy at heart. Jackson is likely to have fewer designed runs with Monken leading the offense, but this passing game should finally open up some to offset some of the production he loses as a runner. (Tom Brolley)
Kirk Cousins (Min) — The Minnesota Vikings did their homework on this year’s quarterback class with Kirkie entering the final year of his contract, but they ultimately passed on the position with the 23rd overall pick. Not only did the Vikings avoid a signal caller but they selected a Biletnikoff winner in Jordan Addison with their first selection. Minnesota has just four remaining picks starting at No. 87 so it appears that Cousins won’t have any real threats to his job for at least 2023. Minnesota has the NFL’s best wide receiver in Justin Jefferson, but they had arguably the thinnest WR corps behind him after releasing Adam Thielen. They’ll now slide Addison into the #2 WR slot to push Jalen Reagor off the field in 11 personnel, a grouping the Vikings used at a whopping 74% clip in Kevin O’Connell’s first season. Minnesota went from 18th in pass rate (58.5%) in Mike Zimmer’s final season to third (64.4%) under O’Connell. The Vikings ideally would like to scale back on the pass a bit if their secondary will allow it, but landing Addison will ensure that Minnesota will remain one of the league’s more pass-happy squads. Cousins is once again shaping up to be an excellent target 100+ picks into redraft and best-ball formats. (TB)
Geno Smith (Sea) — Rumors persisted for weeks that the Seattle Seahawks could be in the market for a quarterback with the fifth overall pick, despite Geno signing a three-year extension this off-season. Well, not only did Seattle pass on Will Levis at 5 — they took Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon — but Geno’s supporting cast got better later in the round when the Seahawks ended a semi-surprising fall for Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 20 overall. An exceptional route runner who put up historic numbers in 2021 despite sharing the field with 2021 first-rounders Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, Smith-Njigba should instantly contribute in three-WR sets in the Pacific Northwest while giving the Seahawks a natural successor to the 31-year-old Tyler Lockett. Geno, 2022’s QB10 in FPG and QB5 in overall FP, is the current QB16 in Underdog ADP. Barring something unforeseen, that could shoot up in the coming weeks. (Joe Dolan)
Justin Herbert (LAC) — The Los Angeles Chargers got Herbert help at #21 overall on Thursday night, taking TCU wideout Quentin Johnston. After all of their injury issues last year between Keenan Allen (hamstring) and Mike Williams (ankle), Los Angeles desperately needed some upside and depth at the position. Johnston is it. In an undersized class, Johnston (6-3, 210lbs) is one of the few with ideal size and he’s the best receiver in the class after the catch, hands down. That explosive after-catch ability is something the Chargers have sorely missed. Per our guy Scott Barrett, “Johnston averaged 8.9 yards after the catch per reception and 0.32 missed tackles forced per reception last season. Both numbers rank 11th-best since 2018, among all Power 5 WRs with at least 55 receptions (212 qualifiers).” With Allen entering his age-31 season and Mike Williams turning 29 years old, Johnston is set up better than any rookie WR in this class for short- and long-term success. This fit is perfect. Herbert’s average depth of throw last season was a pathetic 6.2 yards downfield, the third-lowest. That was due in part to now-fired OC Joe Lombardi’s scheme, but also a lack of supporting talent. Johnston’s average depth of target was 17.5 yards downfield last season, per PFF. Wheels up. (Graham Barfield)
Jimmy Garoppolo (LV) — Tight end went from a strength area for the Las Vegas Raiders with Darren Waller and Foster Moreau last season to being a major weakness this off-season. They traded Waller to the Giants this off-season and they were unable to re-sign the ascending Moreau because of his cancer diagnosis. Fortunately, this year’s TE class was one of the strongest we’ve ever seen, and the top player at the position in many experts’ eyes, Michael Mayer, fell to a spot where the Raiders could trade up and select him at 35th overall. GM Dave Ziegler and HC Josh McDaniels have done a good job of catering the passing game to their new quarterback, bringing in Jakobi Meyers and Mayer who excel in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field. Garoppolo owned an NFL-best passer rating of 133.8 on throws of 10-19 yards before his season-ending foot injury. Jimmy G’s fantasy upside is limited as a low-end QB2, but he should have some moments as a streamer in good matchups or in pass-heavy scripts in the AFC West for as long as he can stay on the field. (TB)
Deshaun Watson (Cle) — The Cleveland Browns entered the draft without a selection in the first two rounds and limited draft capital overall. It was notable then that they spent their first pick on wide receiver Cedric Tillman, which wasn’t an area of need. They previously acquired speedy WRs Elijah Moore (4.35-second 40-time) and Marquise Goodwin (4.27) earlier this off-season to play alongside Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Watson completed 58.7% of his passes for 6.5 YPA, seven TDs, and five INTs in his first action with the Browns. He previously completed 67.8% of his passes for 8.3 YPA, 104 TDs, and 36 INTs in his first 54 career games with the Texans. The Browns averaged just 16.3 PPG and 298.0 YPG with Watson at quarterback, which would’ve ranked 32nd and 29th, respectively, over the entire season. Cleveland’s off-season moves at WR are signs that Kevin Stefanski will start catering the offense more to Watson’s strengths in 2023 than to Nick Chubb and the running game as he did in his first three seasons as head coach. Stefanski’s job is on the line this season and he can’t afford for his quarterback to struggle again in an offense that he isn’t comfortable in. (TB)
Jordan Love (GB) — The Green Bay Packers officially started the Jordan Love era days before the draft when they completed their trade of Aaron Rodgers to the Jets. Green Bay passed on an opportunity to land the first WR or TE with the 13th overall pick, but GM Brian Gutekunst did Love a solid by going HAM on receivers on Day 2, selecting WR Jayden Reed and TEs Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. The Packers entered the draft extremely thin at receiver with just second-year WRs Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs at the top of their depth chart, but they left it with an intriguing group that’s teeming with upside. The deadline for the Packers to pick up Love’s fifth-year option is on May 2, and we’ll feel more confident in him this season if Green Bay gives him a vote of confidence by picking up his extra season. Love is setting up to be a boom-or-bust QB2 option who could pick up steam late in August if he and his receivers perform well in the preseason. (TB)
RUNNING BACKS
Najee Harris (Pit) — Pittsburgh’s offensive line steadily improved last season and it wasn’t a glaring weakness as in years past. The Pittsburgh Steelers averaged just 94.9 rushing YPG in their first eight games and they reached 100+ yards just three times in that span. In their final nine games, they averaged 146.2 rushing YPG after their Week 9 bye and they hit the century mark eight times from November on. Pittsburgh still needed to upgrade its offensive line this off-season to maximize their last two first-round picks, Kenny Pickett and Harris, in 2023. They accomplished their goal by signing former Eagles OG Isaac Seumalo in free agency and selecting Georgia OT Broderick Jones with the 14th overall pick. Pittsburgh’s O-line improved in the second half of 2022 but Harris also got healthy after a sprained foot sapped his limited explosiveness and conditioning in August through October. Harris doesn’t have the same fantasy juice going from Ben Roethlisberger to Kenny Pickett — he went from 138.7 FP to 81.9 FP as a receiver from 2021 to 2022. He’s also fending off last year’s impressive UDFA Jaylen Warren for opportunities heading into 2023, so he’s no longer an option in the first two rounds of fantasy drafts. Harris is still building some positive momentum heading into 2023 with an O-line that has gone from a weakness to a strength. The Steelers haven’t had a top-10 rushing attack since 2016 with Le’Veon Bell but there’s a strong possibility that changes in 2023. (TB) James Conner (Ari) — The Arizona Cardinals need everything on what could well be the worst roster in football, so they did a fantastic job getting a massive package from Houston for the #3 pick in the Draft, and then used some of their added capital to trade back up to #6 to get their guy, Ohio State OL Paris Johnson, whom they likely would have taken at #3 if they didn’t find a buyer. Johnson has a lot of tools to work with and might not be an instant solution at tackle, but he has experience at guard and will be a Week 1 starter wherever the Cardinals choose to put him. Most of Johnson’s deficiencies are currently in pass protection, but he should help the Cards’ run-game concepts right away, which is good news for Conner. Conner, 2022’s RB10 in FPG, is the RB32 in Underdog ADP. (JD)
Jonathan Taylor (Ind) — The Indianapolis Colts ended their multi-year search for their QB of the future by taking Anthony Richardson at #4 overall. This backfield between Richardson and Taylor just isn’t fair now. Richardson is legitimately one of the most athletic quarterbacks to enter the league and his dynamic ability will be extremely difficult to deal with – especially paired with Taylor. New HC Shane Steichen’s plan is to install the Hurts offense that he ran in 2021-22 with the Eagles. Think along the lines of what Jalen Hurts does to help the Eagles run game or Lamar Jackson/Justin Fields On zone-read runs, the edge defender has to respect the rushing threat at QB. If he hesitates or goes with the QB, it opens lanes for the RB. Simple as that. The Colts still have to address their offensive line, but this run game is going to turn around fast. (GB)
D’Andre Swift (Phi) — The Detroit Lions stunned the NFL on Thursday night by selecting Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs at #12 overall, which spelled the end of Swift’s tenure in Detroit. The Lions dumped Swift on the Eagles on Day 3 of the draft, landing essentially just a 2025 fourth-round pick for the 2020 second-round selection. Swift joins a backfield that is there for the taking with the injury-prone Rashaad Penny in the lead-runner role and Kenneth Gainwell currently in the passing-back role. It’s a homecoming for Swift who played high school football at national powerhouse St. Joseph’s Prep in the Philly area, and he’ll join the ever-growing list of Georgia Bulldogs on the Eagles roster. The Eagles scored the third-most PPG (28.4) and they ran the rock at the fourth-highest rate last season behind arguably the NFL’s best offensive line. He’s been a big play waiting to happen with 22 carries of 15+ yards out of 364 career totes and nine receptions of 20+ yards out of 156 career receptions. There’s a lot to like about Swift’s landing spot but we’d pump the brakes a bit before reaching too early for him in fantasy drafts. He’s got plenty of red flags for injuries and how his tenure went so far south in Detroit. The Eagles have also relied heavily on a backfield by committee with Gainwell steadily improving in his second season, and Jalen Hurts accounted for 13 rushing TDs last season. Swift will have to earn his touches and playing time, but there’s plenty of reason to be excited about his prospects in a potent offense in a wide-open backfield. (TB)
WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS
Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark (Car) — The Carolina Panthers tore down their passing game this off-season, casting off Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield and using D.J. Moore to acquire the top overall pick. Carolina didn’t have many options to upgrade at WR in a weak free-agent batch — they eventually settled for Thielen and Chark — but they at least landed a prolific college passer in Bryce Young with the No. 1 pick in the draft. Young comes with outlier size (5’10”, 204) but he’s a hyper-accurate passer who averaged 303.7 passing YPG in his final two seasons at Alabama. Thielen’s YPRR has fallen in six straight seasons (2.15>2.10>2.08>1.86>1.63>1.08) heading into his 10th campaign, and he hasn’t reached 1000+ receiving yards since 2018. He’s still a savvy route runner (especially near the end zone) who should be helped out by Young’s precision passing — he completed 65.9% of his passes in 2021-22.
Chark missed 19 games in the last two seasons and is coming off another ankle surgery this off-season, but he made a difference for Detroit’s offense when he was available in 2022. He averaged 17.7 YPR with an aDOT of 16.2 yards in his last 14 healthy games over the last two seasons. His former Lions teammate and fellow speed merchant, Jameson Williams, erupted for 1572 receiving yards while averaging 19.9 YPR playing with Young at Alabama in 2021. Thielen is the slight favorite to lead the Panthers in targets, but Chark will see more valuable downfield targets and offers more weekly fantasy upside. They certainly don’t move the needle for fantasy, but they’re in a great spot to maximize their limited fantasy appeal. They added Jonathan Mingo early on Day 2 of the draft (TB)
Houston Texans receivers (Hou)— Houston put up one big smokescreen when it came to #2 overall all spring as C.J. Stroud ended up being their target all along. You can debate whether or not they gave up too much by trading back up to #3 overall for Will Anderson, but if all goes to plan – the Texans just drafted franchise cornerstones for the next 8+ years. Stroud was largely heralded as the most accurate quarterback in the class as PFF deemed 68.2% of his throws last season to be accurate/on-target, which was the second-best figure in college football. Stroud has an uncanny ability to lead his receivers away from coverage and into soft spots. Houston added slot WR Tank Dell in the third round, but receivers Dalton Schultz, Nico Collins, and Robert Woods still get big boosts going from Davis Mills to Stroud. (GB)
DOWNGRADES
Players whom we’re feeling less optimistic about based on the selections and trades coming out of the 2023 Draft.
QUARTERBACKS
Ryan Tannehill (Ten) — Will Levis’ draft slide finally ended when the Tennessee Titans traded up to select the Kentucky QB with the second pick of Day 2. The franchise has been looking for Tannehill’s eventual replacement each of the last two off-seasons, and they’re hoping Levis will turn out better than their third-round experiment on Malik Willis last season. The wheels fell off for Tannehill last season after the Titans traded A.J. Brown to the Eagles, finishing as the QB27 with a miserable 14.1 FPG and just 13 TD passes in 12 games. He suffered an ankle injury in Week 7 and struggled through the injury the rest of the season, eventually ending his campaign on the injured reserve. Tannehill posted just 34/98/2 rushing after hitting 266+ rushing yards and seven rushing TDs in each of his previous two seasons. He’ll likely enter the final year of his contract as the Week 1 starter, but he’ll need to elevate his weak receiving corps and get back to winning double-digit games like the Titans did in 2020-21 to hold off Levis. (TB)
Jared Goff (Det) — Goff had a career renaissance behind one of the league’s best offensive lines with budding coaching star Ben Johnson calling plays. He ended up with 29 touchdown passes last season, including 17 scores to just one INT in his final 10 games. His performance in 2022 still wasn’t enough for the Detroit Lions to avoid taking his eventual replacement, Hendon Hooker, in the third round. The good news for Goff is that Hooker faces a lot of obstacles to play this season. Hooker is seven months older than Jalen Hurts and will turn 26 years old next January. He’s also coming off ACL surgery last December, which will limit his development this season, and he’s already a bit of a project since he played in a gimmicky offense with the Volunteers. Goff took a hit earlier this month the NFL suspended second-year WR Jameson Williams for six games for violating the league’s gambling policy. He’s likely to start every game that he’s healthy enough to play in this season, but they now have the option of pulling the ripcord in the second half of the season if Goff turns back into the Goff from 2020-21 and the Lions turn back to Lions from the last century. (TB)
RUNNING BACKS
Tyler Allgeier (Atl) — So, uh, this is pretty obvious. Allgeier ran for 1035 yards and 3 TD in a fantastic rookie campaign, adding 16 receptions and another score through the air. And now both his redraft and dynasty value got absolutely nuked in one night when the Atlanta Falcons used the 8th overall pick on Texas stud RB Bijan Robinson. Allgeier showed plenty of promise as a rookie, but there is just no way Atlanta — which had multiple needs on defense — would use a top pick on a running back and force that back into a committee. Allgeier is a pure backup/handcuff now, and his ADP of RB27 on Underdog is going to plummet into oblivion immediately. (JD)
David Montgomery (Det) — The Lions stunned the NFL on Thursday night by selecting Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs at #12 overall and then #18 overall on off-ball Iowa MLB Jack Campbell! Detroit is going all-in on the run game (and stopping the run) after drafting Gibbs and Campbell and signing David Montgomery and Alex Anzalone via free agency. While Gibbs is an explosive talent and will be featured heavily in the passing game – his addition throws a wrench into this backfield. Montgomery will likely be the early-down runner and get goal-line work while Gibbs projects to take the bulk of the passing-down work and work in as a change-up. So, basically, he’s their new D’Andre Swift. While Montgomery and Gibbs split backfield is incredible for the Lions as a team, it’s really brutal for fantasy. Both will be serviceable and have RB1 contingent upside if one misses time due to injury, but Gibbs and Montgomery together will really cap each other's upside. Last season, Jamaal Williams finished as the RB18 by fantasy points per game (13.4) while Swift was RB17 (13.5 FPG). (GB)
Kenneth Walker (Sea) — The Seattle Seahawks pulled a bit of a stunner by selecting UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet with the 52nd overall pick, but it’s not as shocking if you check out Seattle’s non-existent depth chart behind KWIII. The Seahawks also value running backs more than other franchises, selecting both Walker (2022) and Rashaad Penny (2018) inside the first two rounds over the last six years. Charbonnet is built (6’2”, 220 pounds) to be a downhill runner and a goal-line option, and he’s also more accomplished as a receiver than Walker was coming out of college. With Charbonnet in the mix, it’s difficult to envision Walker duplicating his 226 touches and eight touchdowns from the final 11 games after Penny’s season-ending injury. Charbonnet should open as the change-of-pace back behind Walker with the chance to take on a bigger role as the season moves along. Seattle’s pick crushed the fantasy value of both Walker and Charbonnet heading into the season. (TB)
Travis Etienne (Jax) — The Jacksonville Jaguars owned nine picks heading into the draft so they weren’t leaving without a running back with just JaMycal Hasty and D’Ernest Johnson behind Etienne. They grabbed Bigsby with a third-round pick, who could take some early-down work away from Etienne at 6’0”, 210 pounds. The bigger concern is that Etienne could lose some goal-line work to Bigsby after he scored just five touchdowns on 255 touches (1.9%), including just four rushing scores on 40 carries inside the 20-yard line (10%). Etienne still has a chance to be an RB1 this season in a still-ascending offense with Trevor Lawrence at the trigger, but his value took a small hit with the Jaguars selecting Bigsby. (TB)
Alvin Kamara (NO) — The New Orleans Saints continued to brace for a Kamara suspension, drafting TCU RB Kendre Miller in the third round after signing Jamaal Williams at the start of free agency. Miller should compete with Williams for early-down carries and Kamara could slide into a passing-back role after topping 170+ carries in each of his last five seasons. Kamara hasn't been the same player the last two seasons, averaging just 33.2 receiving YPG after averaging 47.1 YPG in his first four seasons. His efficiency as a runner has also significantly dipped, averaging just 3.9 YPC in 2021-22 after owning a 5.0 YPC average in 2017-20. Kamara’s trial is slated to begin on July 31 so we could get some sort of resolution to his playing status by the start of the season. He’s setting up to be a player to avoid in drafts with a suspension looming over him and additional competition for carries in this backfield. (TB)
Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert (Mia) — The Miami Dolphins have a need for speed, adding Devon Achane (4.32-second 40-yard dash) to an offense that already had Tyreek Hill (4.29), Mostert (4.34), and Jaylen Waddle (unofficial 4.37). Achane isn’t likely to steal too many carries from Mostert and Wilson at just 5’8”, 188 pounds, but he could eat into their playing time and keep them off the field in pass situations. The Dolphins selected Achane with the 84th overall pick so it’s safe to assume creative play-caller Mike McDaniel has some sort of plan in place to get Achane weekly designed touches. Mostert and Wilson lost some fantasy value on Day 2 but they should continue to split the vast majority of carries in this backfield. The Dolphins were likely to add a body to the backfield despite owning just four picks entering the draft, and Achane is at least more likely to be a complementary player than a lead back because of his frame. (TB)
WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS
Drake London and Kyle Pitts (Atl) — The Falcons used their third consecutive top-10 draft pick on a skill position player on Thursday night, selecting Texas RB Bijan Robinson at 8 overall. Meanwhile, projected starting QB Desmond Ridder… may or may not be good? Ridder started four games for Atlanta last year, throwing a grand total of 2 touchdowns. And we know coach Arthur Smith wants to run the hell out of the football. The Falcons threw the ball just 24.4 times per game last season, a historically low number that was overshadowed by the Bears (22.2) running a service academy offense for much of the year. With the addition of Bijan to the mix, how much will that number actually go up? For London and Pitts to pay off lofty ADPs, Ridder will have to progress significantly, and the Falcons might have to use Bijan less than they’re likely going to. (JD)
Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham, and Mark Andrews (Bal) — Baltimore completed its fence-mending for the freshly locked-in face of the franchise, Lamar Jackson, by drafting Boston College WR Zay Flowers in the first round. Lamar will go from throwing to WRs Devin Duvernay, Demarcus Robinson, James Proche, and DeSean Jackson in his final game of 2022 to WRs Odell, Bateman, Flowers, and Nelson Agholor in his first game of 2023. Jackson is one of the biggest winners from the draft but each of his receivers takes a hit in what is likely to still be one of the league’s more run-heavy teams, even with the addition of his new receivers and Todd Monken as the play caller.
The divide between Travis Kelce and the rest of fantasy TEs widened this off-season with Andrews facing much stiffer competition for targets next season. Andrews is now in a battle to be the TE2 against T.J. Hockenson, who gained momentum with Adam Thielen’s 107 targets (and 21 red-zone targets) leaving in free agency. The Ravens shockingly handed OBJ $15 million in guaranteed money despite his two ACL tears since October 2020, which limited the 30-year-old WR to 21 games over the last three seasons. They clearly aren’t putting their eggs in Bateman’s basket again after he missed 16 games in his first two seasons. Beckham has the best chance of emerging as a fantasy option based on his contract alone, but they look like bad bets to be consistent producers in a receiving corps that suddenly has depth. (TB)
Dawson Knox (Buf) — The Buffalo Bills were hoping to land a new running mate for Stefon Diggs at the back end of the first round but the top four WRs went off the board in succession from picks 20-23. Buffalo’s brass settled for a trade up to No. 25 to draft a sliding Dalton Kincaid, who is widely regarded as the class’ top receiving TE. It was a bit of a bizarre move for a franchise that just extended Knox for four years with $31.2 million guaranteed at the start of last season. Knox notched consecutive top-13 TE finishes in FPG thanks to playing with the great Josh Allen, compiling 97/11104/15 receiving on 136 targets over the last two seasons. He’ll be hard-pressed to duplicate that feat in 2023 with Kincaid set to take a big bite out of his targets per game (4.3), routes per game (36.2), and snap share (80%) from last season. The tight end position somehow keeps getting worse for fantasy and Kincaid’s landing spot in Buffalo just nuked two potential top-12 options for 2023. (TB)
Mike Williams (LAC) — After the Chargers selected TCU WR Quentin Johnston at #21 overall, Los Angeles now has a formidable 4-WR group between Johnston, Williams, Keenan Allen, and Josh Palmer. A big part of the reason I was in on Williams for fantasy last season was due to just how thin this depth chart was and the target share Williams would inherit because of it. Williams had a few awesome games for fantasy but continued to be streaky as a mid-season ankle injury derailed his season. He ended with 63/895/4 in 13 games, finishing as the WR21 in FPG (13.6). Now 29 years old, Williams has strong competition for targets on the perimeter and a new OC in Kellen Moore. Williams is a strong fit skill-set-wise with Johnston – Williams plays big, but Johnston does not. Still, Johnston’s addition is not a good thing for Williams’ short- and long-term fantasy value. The Chargers can get out of the final year (2024) of Williams’ three-year extension after the 2023 season. (GB)
Kansas City Chiefs WRs (KC) — The Kansas City Chiefs are taking a committee approach with their WR corps ever since they traded away Tyreek Hill. They selected a WR in the second round for the second straight year, picking SMU’s Rashee Rice 55th overall after taking Skyy Moore 54th overall in 2022. Rice is another freak athlete in this receiving corps, posting a SPORQ score of 88.3 at the combine. He’ll be battling for Patrick Mahomes’ WR targets with the likes of Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Moore, Richie James, Justin Watson, and Justyn Ross. No Chiefs WR ranked inside the top 30 in FPG last season with Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster coming the closest with each player averaging 11.7 FPG to rank as low-end WR3s. Travis Kelce is by far the best fantasy TE in the game, and he’s the only sure bet to be involved in this passing game every week this season. Mahomes is poised to spread the love around to his entire WR corps for the second straight season, but at least you won’t have to spend significant fantasy draft capital to take shots on his WRs. (TB)
Denver Broncos WRs (Den) — New HC Sean Payton has been rumored to be shopping Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, who has yet to have his fifth-year extension picked up before the May 2 deadline. Payton did nothing to quiet those rumors by trading up to select Oklahoma WR Marvin Mims with his first pick with the Denver Broncos at the end of the second round. It was a head-scratching move since Denver entered the weekend with limited draft capital because of its misguided trade for Russell Wilson last off-season. They also already have Sutton, Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and K.J. Hamler on the roster. Mims profiles as a vertical slot type at 5’11”, 183 pounds, which hurts Jeudy the most since he ran 54.1% of his routes from inside last season. It also likely spells the end of Hamler’s time in Denver, who is currently recovering from yet another major injury after tearing his pec this off-season. Jeudy and the rest of this receiving corps would be much better off for fantasy if he’s traded elsewhere before the start of the season. (TB)
Donovan Peoples-Jones (Cle) — DPJ is coming off a sneaky strong third season, totaling 50+ receiving yards in seven straight games in the middle of the season on his way to posting 61/839/3 receiving. His fortune turned when Deshaun Watson entered the lineup for the final six games, falling below 45 receiving five times in that span. DPJ’s run of bad luck continued in the draft with the Browns using their limited draft capital on Tennessee’s Cedric Tillman, who will battle DPJ for targets and snaps this season. Tillman could be seen more as the long-term replacement for DPJ with his rookie contract set to run out after this season, but Tillman is going to push for playing time at some point this season at DPJ’s expense. DPJ’s stock is trending in the wrong direction heading into the summer with Elijah Moore also joining the mix this spring. (TB)
New York Giants WRs (NYG) — Good luck trying to sort through the target distribution of New York’s WRs next season after adding Jalin Hyatt to its receiving corps in the third round. He predominantly worked out of the slot at Tennessee and the Giants already have four primary slot WRs in Sterling Shepard, Wan’Dale Robinson, Parris Campbell, and Jamison Crowder. His path to playing time is a little easier if he plays more on the perimeter at the NFL level with just Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins working as outside receivers. The Giants had the 11th-worst pass rate (52.9%) and the eighth-fewest pass attempts per game (30.6) so it’s difficult to have any faith in any Giants WR for fantasy before the 2023 season starts. (TB)
Pat Freiermuth (Pit) — The Pittsburgh Steelers nabbed the falling Washington with the 93rd overall pick after it once looked like he could potentially sneak into the back end of the first round. He tumbled down draft boards because of long-term concerns over his knee, and he’ll give the Steelers an impressive combo at TE with Freiermuth serving as the primary receiving threat. Washington is a mountain of a man at 6’7”, 264 pounds but he won’t even be the biggest player in Pittsburgh’s TE room with Zack Gentry checking in at 6’8”, 265 pounds. Washington posted a 91.7 SPORQ score and could step into a sizable role after Gentry played on 50% of the snaps last season. Washington’s selection shouldn’t hurt Freiermuth too much but Washington is more of a receiving threat than Gentry, who collected just 38/299/0 receiving on 367 routes (.81 YPRR) over the last two seasons. Freiermuth finished as the TE10 with 9.3 FPG last season, but he’s facing an uphill battle to match his production with the Steelers adding Washington and slot WR Allen Robinson to the middle of the field in April. (TB)
FantasyPoints.com writers Joe Dolan (JD), Graham Barfield (GB), and Tom Brolley (TB) compiled this report.
