For fantasy purposes, it’s better to have players in games that feature teams that play fast and run a lot of plays. Why? Faster paced offenses drain less clock in between plays which gives the game more overall play volume. And more play volume = more opportunities.
In this weekly column, I’ll highlight a few games that project for more pace and plays and some spots that could underwhelm.
Fast-paced games
Cowboys vs. Washington
By now, we know how the Cowboys are going to play. Even with LB Leighton Vander-Esch back last week, their defense still got demolished to the tune of 38 points and 438 total yards on night where Kyler Murray completed nine passes. Andy Dalton dropped back to pass 57 times and the Cowboys ran 84 plays total in the loss, which is right in line with their league-leading volume (76.2 plays/game). Dallas is still ripping off plays three seconds faster than the next closest team while Washington is quietly playing fast on offense, too. The Football Team is getting plays off at the league’s fourth quickest pace and the extra speed has led to way more volume. Last year, Washington averaged league-low 55.3 plays per game and that is way up to 63.8 plays/game this season. The 46 total on this game looks a shade low.
Steelers vs. Titans
Just like last week, we have another amazing matchup featuring the Titans. Sure, the Steelers defense is light-years better than the Texans — but Tennessee should still dictate the flow of this game on offense. Even though the Titans are run-heavy, they play fast (third in pace) and rip off a ton of plays (68.4; fifth-most). Ben Roethlisberger only had to throw it 22 times last week as Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense crumbled, but their play volume should go back to normal levels here. The Steelers are going to have to keep their foot on the gas this week and their own pace should further elevate the play volume if this game stays as tight as the spread suggests (the Steelers are -2.5 favorites). So far, Pittsburgh is running the 13th-fastest paced attack and are averaging the eighth-most plays per game as a result.
Lions vs. Falcons
The hope in this game is that the Falcons score a ton of points and force the Lions to keep Matthew Stafford throwing. Atlanta is 10th in pace and they are running the third-most plays per game, which should elevate the overall play volume in this spot. If Atlanta can build a slight lead, this game has massive shootout potential. Because their offense is playing so fast and their defense is so terrible against the pass, it’s juicing all of their games up. Through Week 1-6, only the Seahawks (47.8) are facing more pass attempts than the Falcons (40.0). That should lead to more volume for Stafford, who is currently on pace for a career-low 537 attempts.
Browns-Bengals
The biggest question mark in this Browns-Bengals game will be Cleveland’s effectiveness on offense. Baker Mayfield is clearly playing at less than 100% and is suffering because of it. In Mayfield’s rookie year, he wasn’t afraid to push the ball downfield on deep drops and flashed some of the textbook ball-placement that made him the No. 1 overall pick. Right now, Mayfield is holding the ball way too long and struggling to read the field. Meanwhile, both Jarvis Landry (hip; ribs) and Odell Beckham (turf toe) are also playing banged up. Will the Browns elite rushing attack carry them in this game? If so, it’ll force Joe Burrow to the air early and often. The Bengals aren’t afraid to play fast and throw a ton, as they’re averaging the second-most plays per game, they’re playing at the 11th-quickest pace, and are 68% pass-heavy when trailing (11th).
Slow-paced games
49ers vs. Patriots
This game is pretty gross for fantasy purposes. San Francisco is playing at a snail’s pace on offense — they’re the second-slowest attack and running the fifth-fewest plays per game — while the Patriots are neutral in pace (16th). Even though New England’s defense isn’t playing at their 2019 level, they are doing a great job at limiting volume on their side of the ball as opponents are averaging a league-low 58.4 plays per game against them. Vegas knows this could be a sloppy affair and have set the over/under at a slate-low 44 points.
Buccaneers vs. Raiders
There are a few layers in this matchup that could limit both team’s play volume. The Buccaneers (21st) and Raiders (22nd) are both well below average in pace of play while Tampa’s stifling defense might be the best all-around unit in the league. This year, opponents are only averaging 61 plays per game (fifth-fewest) and 2:33 in time of possession per drive (third-fewest) against the Buccaneers.
