With the offseason underway, it’s time to dig into the tape on some of 2024’s most surprising performances. Our team of Fantasy Points Data charters watch every snap of every game, compiling a treasure trove of actionable insights for your fantasy football leagues.
Along the way, a handful of players stood out – for better or worse – and they couldn’t stop talking about them.
Today, I’ll leverage these insights from the film behind the data and recommend players to target and avoid in your 2025 fantasy drafts. Our charters’ original, unfiltered thoughts are footnoted throughout.
ADP via Draft Sharks
Kenneth Walker (RB, Sea)
(Dynasty SF RB16 / Best Ball 1QB RB17)
The talent disparity between Walker and teammate Zach Charbonnet could not be larger, as highlighted in Week 4 when Walker returned from injury and reminded us he’s a top-tier athlete. Walker looked so explosive that our charter compared Charbonnet to a fullback.[1].
Furthermore, new Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak runs a zone-heavy scheme (5th-most zone in 2024, 59.2%). This scheme meshes significantly better with Walker’s play style than Charbonnet's 2.54 YPC on zone concepts, which ranked dead last among RBs.
Seattle does not have anywhere close to the offensive line Philadelphia does (the understatement of the century). However, it’s hard not to see a bit of Saquon Barkley’s play style in Walker. They both have make-you-miss moves (Walker has ranked 2nd-best among all RBs in missed tackles forced per touch each of the last two seasons), unique flexibility in the hips, love to hurdle defenders, and possess the game-breaking ability to destroy outside containment in the blink of an eye. I also compared Walker to Bijan Robinson in Week 7.[2]
TLDR: Bet on talent; it’s that simple. You missed out on multiple historic seasons over the past few years if you were too scared of Christian McCaffrey or Barkley due to injury concerns. If Walker can remain healthy, his athleticism and game-breaking ability will lead him to a top-10 fantasy season and keep Charbonnet on the bench.[3]
Bryce Young (QB, Car)
(Dynasty SF QB20 / BestBall 1QB QB21)
Few players in 2024 changed their future trajectory the way Bryce Young did. It was rough to begin the season — Young’s body language was ugly, appearing overwhelmed as everything seemed too fast for him.[4]
Something clicked while Young rode the bench. When he rejoined the starting lineup, it seemed like the game slowed down for him.[5] When Young retook the starting gig, his swagger popped off the screen. You may remember his viral lookaway TD pass, channeling his inner Joe Burrow.
Young has always had a tendency to stand heavy on his toes, trying to get taller in the pocket. If that tactic helps him see clearer over the line, then that could explain some of the evolution in his play late in the season. [6] This evolution in play occurred despite little help in separation from his receivers.
Bryce Young no look touchdown pass 😳
— NFL Notifications (@NFLNotify) January 5, 2025
pic.twitter.com/46UFNds6Ld
- Let’s talk stats! The more I dove into the numbers from Week 9 and beyond - especially in comparison to his 2023 numbers - the wider my eyes got. Young was much more aggressive downfield in the second half of 2024, resulting in his fantasy points per dropback (FP/DB) increasing from 0.28 (dead-last among 33 qualifying QBs) to 0.52 (12th-best). FP/DB is one of the most predictive stats we have on QBs.
Young in 2023
Young in Weeks 9-18 of 2024
TLDR: Based on the QB we saw in the 2nd half of 2024, alongside a bottom-5 defense, Young seems like a riser in the QB2 discussion for fantasy. Any offseason moves that give him more weapons or better protection could make his stock rise further.
Anthony Richardson (QB, Ind)
(Dynasty SF QB24 / BestBall 1QB QB22)
Anthony Richardson was one of the most polarizing fantasy players coming into the 2024 season. He’d shown league-wrecking fantasy potential with his league-leading 0.76 FP/DB through four games in 2023, while the biggest concern was his ability to stay on the field. Those fears were immediately validated in Week 1 as he continued to take hits. [7]
Across the 11 games Richardson did manage to play, all of his accuracy metrics ranked at the bottom of the barrel. He finished bottom-2 in all of: QB Rating (61.6), Completion Rate (47.7%), CPOE (-6.1%), Deep Throw Accuracy Rate (39.4%), and Catchable Throw Rate (63.6%). In fact, his completion percentage was the worst since Tim Tebow’s 46.5% in 2011. Long story short, Richardson was an abysmal passer who consistently put the offense behind the sticks and left a lot of opportunities out on the field.
While the 2024 numbers could not get much worse for Richardson, there are still some silver linings heading into 2025. He’s working with QB coach Chris Hess this offseason, who previously helped fix Josh Allen’s similar inaccuracy issues early in his career. Let’s also not forget the freakish athleticism and ability to avoid sacks that prompted Richardson’s top 5 draft selection.
Add in that Richardson’s receivers frequently hurt him with critical drops [8] – with the Colts totaling the 6th-most dropped yards (226)[9] – and you can start to paint a faint picture of positivity.
TLDR: Again, despite the terrible accuracy metrics and the collection of dropped passes, I was stunned to see Richardson STILL ranked 6th in FP/DB (.60). He will still be just 23 years old at the start of the 2025 season, and his upside can now be accessed at a significantly cheaper price in all formats. I’m happy to find out whether he’ll continue to develop for the price of a low-end QB2. In free agency, the Colts officially signed Daniel Jones to a 1yr/$14 million deal. It was widely expected the Colts would bring in competition. This does not deter me from a late-round flyer on Richardson because of the low-risk, high-reward potential.
Breece Hall (RB, NYJ)
(Dynasty SF RB6 / BestBall 1QB RB10)
My caution flags are up on Breece Hall. He didn’t look like the same explosive player we all thought we were drafting in the early first round last season. There were multiple instances throughout the season where Hall looked like he was missing that extra jet. He struggled to break away from defenders and went down on early contact much more frequently.[10]
Our charters showed much disdain for the Jets’ offensive line[11]. But their share of the blame aside, Hall was unable to make a lot out of a little the way he had shown in 2022 as a rookie, or even post-ACL tear in 2023 – when you could argue the Jets were worse on the O-line and Zach Wilson was at QB.
This inability to make defenders miss in 2024 compared to his 2023 tape also shows up in Hall’s efficiency stats, which display a steep decline in missed tackles forced despite the offensive line giving him a bit more room to operate before first contact.
Hall in 2023
Hall in 2024
TLDR: The Jets still don’t have a QB (unless you’re a Justin Fields truther). Teams should be able to keep loading the box with 7+ defenders and force Fields/a rookie to beat them. With Hall in a contract year, we could see the team add competition for him yet again in the NFL Draft.
Jauan Jennings (WR, SF)
Dynasty SF WR57 / BestBall 1QB WR37
Jennings just had one of those rare 4th-year breakouts that caught the majority of fantasy managers by surprise. Now that the 49ers have parted ways with Deebo Samuel, many fantasy managers will be excited about Ricky Pearsall as the young recent Round 1 pick entering his 2nd year. But I believe Jennings stands in the way of a true Pearsall breakout.
Jennings proved himself to be more than just a safety blanket for Purdy early on, catching the eyes of our data charters and fantasy managers alike in Week 3[12].
Even after Samuel and George Kittle returned, Jennings continued to soak up middle-of-the-field (MOF) opportunities. The same occurred while Brandon Aiyuk was still healthy[13].
On tape, Jennings has a knack for finding the soft spot in the defense, and making himself available even in contested situations. He has always done the dirty work in the run game and after the catch.
Fantasy players are most likely discounting Jennings out of a lack of faith that his 2024 season can be replicated. But when you dive into the numbers, it seems repeatable. Despite ranking 97th out of 100 qualifying WRs in aDOT, Jennings showcased excellent per-route efficiency, averaging 2.47 YPRR (16th-best) and .53 FP/RR (22nd). Samuel’s absence along with Aiyuk’s injury could lead to even more intermediate and deep targets, boosting Jennings’ metrics further.
49ers WRs Average Separation Scores:
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) February 21, 2025
Jauan Jennings / .103 (19th-best)
Deebo Samuel / -.008 (3rd-worst)
*among 77 qualifying WRs in 2024 https://t.co/sTUwaiR92D pic.twitter.com/Xfu8Fe7QCP
TLDR: As the 2024 season ended, we saw Deebo's performance fall off a cliff and Jennings become a more consistent receiver[14]. I see Jennings as a prime candidate to outperform his ADP in all formats, especially when/if no competition is brought in this offseason.
Footnotes
“Kenneth Walker brings a whole different element to the Seattle offense. The Lions were one of the best run defenses in the league and he consistently made defenders miss. Charbonnet looks like a fullback compared to Walker particularly in space where Walker is nearly impossible to bring down.” - Week 4 Charter Note
“Kenneth Walker is the one RB you could argue has similar explosiveness to Bijan Robinson. In this game, he showed once again that if you fail to secure the edge of the LOS, or give up containment, your defense is absolutely toast. Twice in the first quarter, it looked like the Seahawks hit the same outside zone run to the left, and Walker cut it back right, Geno got out in front blocking the edge for him, and it busted into a big play, one of which was called back by a questionable holding call.” - Week 12 Charter Note
“Kenneth Walker is so explosive when healthy. He shot through the offensive line like a cannon and came within a shoestring tackle of breaking a couple of massive runs. Seemed like he never went down to the first defender and even hurdled a couple defenders.” - Week 12 Charter Note
“QB Bryce Young was legitimately catastrophically bad in all facets – missing open guys, taking bad sacks, holding the ball too long, trying to scramble, etc. His line did him no favors, sure. And as the broadcast suggested – they were giving it to him in empty sets instead of even attempting to establish the run, and that clearly didn’t work. But, yeah, Bryce was just plain awful.” - Week 1 Charter Note
“Young looked the most confident in the pocket that he has ever looked in his career. It wasn’t his best statistical game, but the swagger was there.” - Week 9 Charter Note
“Bryce Young is coming around. He looks like he is having fun out there. His confidence in his abilities is showing on the field. Recognizing pressures and coverages and just trusting his read and letting it rip. He still shows some “happy feet” in the pocket and his deep ball was a little off, but he is starting to have multiple “wow” moments every game.”
“There’s something about the way AR15 gets hit that is so gnarly. He got suplexed on an early sack, and his head bounced off the turf. A scramble in the second quarter saw a defender go literally flying over top of AR5, trying to just smoke him. Had he hit him, it would have been a potential personal foul. If AR5 can stay healthy, his arm and legs are such a potent cheat code. He may not be able to hit every throw, but if he could it would not be fair. I mean, you all saw the play on which he stumbled and was on his back foot, but still was able to launch a 60-yard touchdown to wide receiver Alec Pierce. This was the 2nd-longest (by air yards) completed throw in Fantasy Points Data history”. - Week 1 Charter Note
“Consensus opinion will be that Anthony Richardson played bad today and they’re probably right. But I noticed multiple drops, WRs and QB not on the same page for timing of the throw, and receivers slipping mid-throw.” - Week 2 Charter Note
“The box score didn’t reflect how well Anthony Richardson played. His receivers dropped numerous passes downfield that Richardson threw in a good spot. He does have a tendency to throw without his feet set, but he is a different quarterback since returning from the benching a few weeks ago. Also, Richardson is the Colts’ entire red zone offense. When they get inside the 20, he is either throwing off play action or running it himself near the goal line.” - Week 13 Charter Note
“Breece Hall’s burst has been missing. He’s a crafty, skilled player, but the explosive animal he used to be is no longer there.” - Week 7 Charter Note
“Breece Hall and Braelon Allen were contacted in the backfield multiple times by unblocked defenders. Some issues with the scheme exist, but also several missed blocks by 3rd string TE Brenden Bates, including back-to-back critical stops on 3rd and 4th down that led to a turnover on downs.”
“It felt as if Jauan Jennings had more of the George Kittle role. He primarily worked in the middle of the field and 2 of his touchdowns were seam routes where he got behind the coverage. And once he started making spectacular catch after spectacular catch, Purdy just started to force feed him.” - Week 3 Charter Note
“Even with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle back, Jennings was open all game and seemingly a go-to target with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel attracting attention on the outside.” Week 4 Charter Note
“While Deebo Samuel continues to struggle, Jauan Jennings continues to shine. Jennings, coupled with George Kittle got open with ease all game and were too much to deal with in the red zone. Jennings’ ability to get open in small areas helped cure the 49ers’ red zone problems, at least for this game.” - Week 14 Charter Note
