2024 Week 5 DFS Early Look

Week 4 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, meaning Week 5 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 5 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 5 DFS.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (VS. CLE)

DraftKings: $6,800 (QB4) | FanDuel: $8,700 (QB3)

Daniels ranks behind only Lamar Jackson in rushing YPG and fantasy points per dropback – two of our best fantasy stats for judging QBs. He leads the entire NFL in EPA, and he’s led more scoring drives (23) than he’s thrown incompletions (19). He’s setting completion percentage records, but he’s also been remarkably effective pushing the ball downfield; Daniels’ 71% completion percentage on throws of 10+ yards is the best by any rookie since at least 2006.

If Daniels is playing like the best QB in the league, he should absolutely be priced like it. Thankfully, Daniels is just 88% of Josh Allen’s price, despite averaging +3.4 more DraftKings FPG. The matchup with Cleveland isn’t ideal (5th-fewest QB FPG allowed), but I’m still excited to take shots on an underpriced rookie QB who can’t stop setting records or scoring fantasy points.

Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers (@ LAR)

DraftKings: $6,500 (QB6) | FanDuel: $8,200 (QB5)

Love played great for fantasy purposes in his first game back from injury – he led the week in passing yards (389) and finished 2nd in QB fantasy points (31.2). Of course, that was in a tough matchup with extremely negative gamescript. But Week 5 should be notably easier for Love.

Los Angeles has allowed the league’s 2nd-highest passer rating (122.7), the most YPA (9.1), and the 5th-highest completion percentage over expectation (+4.9%). We all credit Washington as the league’s worst pass defense – and while the Commanders have been objectively terrible – the Rams pass defense is giving them some serious competition for the worst in the league.

We know Love can shred a bad defense, and he’s even easier to stack than ever with a condensed target tree on the way after Christian Watson’s injury.

Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens (@ CIN)

DraftKings: $7,800 (RB1) | FanDuel: $9,200 (RB1)

Big Dog is back. Baltimore has turned to extreme levels of running the football, posting a -16% pass rate over expectation (PROE) in Weeks 3 and 4. And the results have been incredible for Derrick Henry – who has dropped at least 33.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, averaging 175.0 rushing YPG and 7.1 YPC over that stretch.

The Ravens are 2.5-point favorites this week, an important note since the notoriously gamescript-dependent Henry is +67% more productive in wins (23.5 FPG) than losses (14.1) since 2021.

The Cincinnati run defense won’t slow Henry down, either. They rank bottom-3 in missed tackles and yards allowed after contact, while allowing the 7th-most rushing YPG (145.5). Getting Henry at sub-$8k in this spot feels like a fire sale.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers (@ CHI)

DraftKings: $6,100 (RB17) | FanDuel: $6,800 (RB13)

Hubbard has averaged the 4th-most XFP/G (21.5) and the 4th-most FPG (25.0) with Andy Dalton under center over the last two weeks. He’s earned 80% of backfield opportunities inside the 10 over that stretch, and he’s recorded a 58% route share when trailing (3rd-best if extrapolated out over the full season) – a crucial note in a game where Carolina is listed as 3.5-point underdogs to Chicago.

On a slate that appears largely absent of cheap RB volume, Hubbard – the RB17 by DraftKings salary – should stand out as a top value, with Jonathon Brooks not expected back until at least Week 6.

And the matchup seems favorable; the Bears have allowed the 10th-most FPG to opposing RBs (24.9), the 5th-most yards before contact per attempt (2.21), and the 5th-most rushing TDs (5). Expect Hubbard to be chalky yet again in this revitalized Panthers offense.

Trey Sermon, RB, Indianapolis Colts (@ JAX)

DraftKings: $5,700 (RB23) | FanDuel: $5,900 (RB26)

Jonathan Taylor appears to have suffered a ‘mild’ high ankle sprain, which likely keeps him off IR but does put his Week 5 status in jeopardy. After Taylor left the game with eight minutes remaining, Trey Sermon handled 86% of snaps and all four RB opportunities.

Just half a quarter of action doesn’t give us a great indication of what the backfield split would be if Taylor can’t go. Still, it’s at least encouraging Sermon has been the clear No. 2 – out-snapping Tyler Goodson 41 to 13, and earning 91% of non-Taylor backfield opportunities this year. If Sermon is a bell cow this week, he’s far too cheap against a Jacksonville defense that’s allowed the 7th-most FPG to opposing RBs this year (27.4).

Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns (@ WAS)

DraftKings: $6,200 (WR16) | FanDuel: $6,200 (WR22)

Cooper is still seeing a workload that’s far better than his price on either site – but especially FanDuel. He’s the WR7 by XFP/G (17.3), but he’s massively underperformed his expectation, averaging just 10.7 FPG (WR47). Cooper has lost 22.1 fantasy points to penalties this season (2nd-most), and he’s only faced one top-12 matchup this season by WR FPG allowed (Jacksonville).

The course correction could easily come this week – Cooper is facing a Washington secondary that looks like the worst pass-defense unit in football for the 2nd season in a row. The Commanders are allowing the most FPG to opposing WRs (46.6), the most 1D/RR (0.09), and the 3rd-most YPRR (1.71). By any and all metrics, they are one of the best pass defenses to target, and I’ll be doing so this week with a far-too-cheap Amari Cooper.

Diontae Johnson, WR, Carolina Panthers (@ CHI)

DraftKings: $6,100 (WR17) | FanDuel: $7,100 (WR12)

Johnson went from the 39th-most XFP/G (11.3) in Weeks 1 and 2 to the 2nd-most (25.1, behind only Nico Collins) once Andy Dalton took over in Weeks 3 and 4. It’s been an incredible transformation – Johnson ranks 5th in first-read target share (43%), 2nd in end zone targets (6), 5th in receiving YPG (102.5), and 3rd in FPG (23.8) since Dalton took over. This has been such a dramatic shift that Johnson has as many end-zone targets over the last two weeks as he had catchable targets in the first two weeks.

If Johnson is now a mid-range WR1, his pricing on both sites – but especially DraftKings – presents a massive discount in comparison. The matchup is bottom-5 on paper, as Chicago’s pass defense has been pretty great from a schedule-adjusted perspective through four weeks. But I’m not sure that matters much when Johnson is seeing volume that’s significantly better than his price.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers (@ LAR)

DraftKings: $5,000 (WR39) | FanDuel: $5,900 (WR31)

Christian Watson suffered a high ankle sprain at the end of the 1st quarter on Sunday, and that led to Wicks finally seeing a full-time route share (80%) across the final three quarters. He dominated the Packers’ receiving usage – leading the team (and finishing 2nd on the week) in XFP (29.4). He was the clear WR1 in Green Bay by both first-read target share (31%), and air yardage share (42%).

Sure, this is just three-quarters of football. But it’s important to remember that Wicks has always been a part-time player. His 80% route share in the final three quarters would be his best single-game mark ever. And he’s posted ridiculously encouraging advanced efficiency metrics in the small sample of routes he’s given us, crushing in separation score and 1D/RR, as Ryan Heath outlined in Five Stats to Know this week.

If Wicks can just maintain the 0.48 FP/RR he posted last season, he would average 13.0 FPG on an 80% route share – which would rank 18th-best among slate-eligible WRs. Wicks profiles as a great play this week, priced as the WR39 on DraftKings in a matchup with a bottom-3 pass coverage unit.

Colby Parkinson, TE, Los Angeles Rams (VS. GB)

DraftKings: $3,700 (TE13) | FanDuel: $5,100 (TE16)

The TE position is a complete disaster. The player seeing the best usage at the position – Jake Ferguson – isn’t on the main slate, leaving us with just three TEs averaging double-digit XFP/G, and one of those players (Trey McBride) is in concussion protocol at the time of writing.

And when the TE position is this bad, it’s generally a good idea to pay down for some guaranteed production, as the extra salary will help your lineup at far more important positions.

That’s effectively the case for Parkinson. He’s tied for the team lead in targets (11) and 2nd in first-read target share (22%) since Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp were out of the lineup. His 82% route share over that stretch leads all TEs, and his 10.5 XFP/G would rank 3rd-best on the main slate over the full season. I’m not particularly excited to play Parkinson, but he has one of the best price-adjusted roles at his position.