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The Following FF Relevant Players are out:
Dameon Pierce
Jaylen Warren
Tank Dell
Cooper Kupp
Davante Adams
DeVonta Smith
Cooper Kupp: High Ankle
Kupp wasn’t placed on IR, and much has been made about the Rams' IR slots — or lack thereof — as a reason not to place him there. This is certainly a possibility, but at the very least, we can semi-confirm that Kupp has no fracture of the ankle, as he’s been seen with an ice/compression device.
The average amount of time for WRs off this injury is 2.5 weeks. Expect Kupp back in either Week 5, or more likely after the Week 6 bye.
Projected Return: Week 5 or 7
Advice: Target at a discount, avoid overpaying
Christian McCaffrey: Achilles
This entire situation is royally effed, but probably not as much as you’d expect. Despite his trip to Germany, McCaffrey’s risk is not much higher than it was at the start of all of this. It’s implied at this point the tendinopathy has been the concern this entire time. There was probably only mild calf soreness. What’s that mean?
McCaffrey needs time. The Niners and McCaffrey likely fear he’ll tear his Achilles due to this long-term issue, which is justified. Still, as a Power Law player, you should still be targeting CMC at a discount and absorb the risk, especially if you’re 3-0.
Projected Return: Week 10-11
Advice: Target at a discount, avoid overpaying
Let’s review the rest of the current list of injuries and projections:
Chris Olave and Nico Collins: Hamstring
Here are some WRs who popped up on the report with a hammy late in the week and scored at least 14 fantasy points:
Laviska Shenault Jr.
Mike Evans
Braxton Berrios
Julio Jones
In other words, start Nico and Olave everywhere.
Projected Return: Week 4
Advice: Play him everywhere
Diontae Johnson: Groin
There’s some risk with Diontae and his groin injury given the fact that he missed time with another soft tissue injury last year. Still with Adam Thielen out and Andy Dalton playing like Joe Montana, Diontae is worth the risk in tournaments and most season-long leagues.
Projected Return: Week 4
Advice: Play him in most places.
Jordan Love: MCL/Kneecap
Love is likely to return this week but probably won’t be 100%. Not that he usually provides much rushing juice, but expect him to look sporadic against a Vikings defense that has looked impenetrable. He’s really only a consideration in 2 QB leagues until he can prove to stay healthy in Week 4.
Projected Return: Week 4
Advice: Avoid in cash/single QB leagues
Deebo Samuel: Calf
In 2021 Deebo followed his exact practice pattern with this exact injury and ended up playing. He scored 11.3 points. Given the nature of the 49ers offense, they need both him and Kittle back. That means there’s a chance he isn’t quite right and re-injury is on the table.
Still, if Deebo is active, he’s basically a must-start in most leagues but only a tournament play in DFS
Projected Return: Week 4-5
Advice: Target Cautiously
Keenan Allen: Heel
This heel issue has been lingering since last season. The aging WR is not likely to produce much and is at high re-injury risk.
Projected Return: Week 4
Advice: Avoid
Puka Nacua: Knee
Projected Return: Week 6
Advice: Target in most scenarios… if you have the roster room
David Njoku: Ankle
Projected Return: Week 5
Advice: Avoid
Jordan Addison: High Ankle
Addison is back this week. They’ve taken their time with him but he still won’t be up to speed. He’s not a must-start and is not likely to win your week. Here’s the data.
Projected Return: Week 4-5
Advice: Avoid
Kenneth Walker III: Core/Groin
Walker’s initial projected return was in Week 5 or 6. Now that he’s practiced there’s about a 39% chance he doesn’t play this week. Since 2018 RBs with this practice pattern average 9 FPG with a median of 9. Make sure to check INACTIVES Sunday and if you need a RB, he’s a high risk option.
Projected Return: Week 4-5
Advice: Avoid, Target Zach Charbonnet
Evan Engram: Hamstring
Projected Return: Week 5-6
Advice: N/A
A.J. Brown: Hamstring
Projected Return: Week 4-5
Brown returned to practice on Friday and with DeVonta Smith out with a concussion, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Brown play. Although this isn’t a common practice pattern. Since 2018 there have been 57 instances WRs have gone DNP-DNP-LP. One was Mike Evans and the other was Julio Jones both in 2020.
The good news is Julio scored 34 fantasy points. The bad news is Evans scored just 7. So, you have to start Brown in most scenarios but he’s going to be a boom/bust play.
Advice: Avoid in cash games, hold/start in season-long
Isiah Pacheco: Ankle
Projected Return: Week 10-11
Advice: Target later in season as playoff contender
Joe Mixon: High Ankle
If Mixon goes in Week 4, he’ll be highly volatile. Since 2018 RBs coming off a high ankle sprain as DNP-DNP-LP (Mixon’s practice pattern this week) have averaged 9.7 PPR FPG. That would have been good for RB30 in Week 3 this year. Specifically, Joe Mixon scored 10.5 points off a high ankle in 2021…and he’s at risk to re-injure if active.
Mixon is not a must-start by any means. Even with Jacksonville on the schedule.
Projected Return: Week 4-5
Advice: Avoid
Justin Herbert: High Ankle
Herbert is unsurprisingly tracking to play. He’s highly volatile due to reinjury risk.
Projected Return: Week 4
Advice: Avoid in cash/single QB leagues
DeVonta Smith: Concussion
Smith sustained a concussion and was ruled out of the game on Sunday. He has no history of these (luckily), but like we’ve seen in the past, every head injury is different. The average amount of missed time is less than a game, and 91% of pass catchers miss 0-1 games overall. Clinically speaking (AKA semi-anecdotally), players with a first-time concussion respond poorly early on, so this is something to monitor.
The rest of the season he’s at an elevated risk to sustain another concussion. In their first week back from these pass catchers see a dip in Week Winner Rate but overall still provide a good floor.
Projected Return: Week 5/TBD
Advice: N/A
George Kittle: Hamstring
The average amount of missed time for pass catchers is 1 game but given the Niners current track record and the midweek nature, I would anticipate Kittle doesn’t go again. If he does, he's hyper boom or bust.
Projected Return: Week 4-5
Advice: N/A
Trey McBride: Concussion
Copy/paste DeVonta Smith blurb.
Projected Return: Week 5/TBD
Advice: N/A
Sam LaPorta: Lateral Ankle
LaPorta sustained a lateral ankle sprain and attempted to return unsuccessfully. We assume there’s no fracture as of now and as such he should be available within the next 1-2 weeks. Average amount of missed time is 1 week for these but most commonly, pass catchers miss no time at all.
When pass catchers return from lateral ankle sprains the Week Winner Rate takes a decent hit. Recurrence is relatively high at 15% so this is something to monitor but as of today, there isn’t major concern.
Projected Return: Week 4
Advice: N/A
