Hopefully, you are reading this article because your team is about to compete in your league semifinals. You may be ready for a rebuild and eagerly anticipate an offseason of change. We have reached the portion of the season where finality sets in. Titles will be won in days, not weeks. This year, the NFL calendar ends earlier. When the Lions and 49ers conclude their Monday Night Football matchup on December 30th, leagues will be won and lost, and champions will be crowned.
For dynasty managers, some will enter the New Year with league bragging rights and the vindication of their hard work and dedication to building a championship roster. Many more managers, however, will be left stewing about coming close but ultimately falling short of a league title and the prizes that come with it. Thoughts will immediately turn to, “Next year will be my year.” Focus and attention will quickly shift to the 2025 Free Agent and Rookie classes, as well as the Dynasty Rookie Drafts this spring.
Just two more short weeks of football remain before the playoffs end. But before we prepare for the two-week sprint of Weeks 16 and 17, let’s take a moment to reflect on the season as a whole.
One of the coolest things at Fantasy Points on the dynasty side is how we approach our dynasty rankings. Instead of using uniform rankings, multiple analysts contribute their own personal rankings and value assessments on how players should be viewed through a dynasty lens. This season, I had the chance to contribute my own.
Dynasty fantasy football and dynasty team building, by definition, is a long-term process with short-term seasonal goals — with winning your league sitting firmly at the top of that list. Unlike our redraft counterparts, dynasty managers must navigate a more complex, ongoing journey. The rankings reflect that reality.
However, dynasty rankings aren't static. They experience dramatic seasonal shifts. Players can undergo shocking value declines or achieve incredible breakthroughs, resulting in significant value changes. These ranking updates reveal key insights, not just about individual players, but also about football as a whole.
While updating my rankings this week, a few key themes emerged. Not only were there notable risers and fallers in dynasty value, but there were also valuable lessons to be learned — lessons that can help inform our approach to player evaluation and dynasty team building moving forward.
2024’s Dynasty Lessons Learned
Free Agents Continue to Thrive
In years past, fantasy managers across all formats were taught to approach players on new teams with a great deal of caution. The logic was simple: if a player’s previous team let them walk or didn’t fight hard enough to keep them, there must have been a reason. We were also taught to prioritize familiarity with systems — valuing time spent within an organization and the experience gained learning a specific offensive scheme.
It’s time to throw all of that thinking out the window as a relic of fantasy football’s past.
A few years ago, fading wide receivers on new teams was considered a sharp strategy. But trades involving Stefon Diggs to Buffalo, A.J. Brown to Philadelphia, and Tyreek Hill to Miami completely flipped that notion on its head. Now, we’re seeing similar value gains through free-agent signings. Teams are targeting players on the open market more aggressively and featuring them in new roles that accentuate their skills and abilities.
The overall scoring leaders reflect this shift in a major way. Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and many running backs are the obvious names to point out. But we’ve also seen significant gains from players who dynasty managers had largely written off. Examples include Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold at quarterback, Darnell Mooney at wide receiver, and Jonnu Smith at tight end. These are just a few players you could have acquired for your dynasty roster at an obscenely low cost.
As we approach the 2025 offseason, keep an open mind about how teams are spending their money in free agency, as well as the players they acquire via trade. Open your mind up that this new team may actually use this player in a more prominent and fantasy friendly role than their previous team did. For a mental exercise, consider your perception of Jerry Jeudy one year ago versus your perception of him now. This shift in perspective and open-mindedness and embracing new situations can provide a significant edge for dynasty managers moving forward.
Investing in Rookies in Dynasty Startups is a Cheat Code
The "wait-and-see-it-first" drafter will always be significantly disadvantaged in fantasy football. Players break through every single year. In dynasty, these particular managers are at a massive disadvantage, especially when it comes to rookie talent.
It’s easy for even the most casual drafter to get excited about players like Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Malik Nabers, and Marvin Harrison Jr when they were headed into their rookie seasons. These players become household names early and often. By the time dynasty startup season comes around, they have already established themselves as elite, must-draft assets — regardless of their NFL experience.
But what the past two years have reinforced is that rookie talent doesn’t end with the first few picks in your rookie draft. The willingness and openness to embrace the next tier of rookies can often lead to some of the most dramatic increases in dynasty value among all players. Embracing the unknown has its risks, but the rewards are undeniable.
Last season, dynasty managers could have easily ended up with players like Sam LaPorta, De'Von Achane, Tucker Kraft, and Jayden Reed — all within the same dynasty startup — without using early draft capital. This season, exceptional values were found in players like Bucky Irving, Tyrone Tracy, and Bo Nix. But it wasn’t just sleepers and non-first-round rookie picks who paid off. Players like Brian Thomas Jr. and Ladd McConkey were mid-round startup picks who have since gained rounds of value heading into 2025.
Embracing rookies is a cheat code that you should dive into in every startup, but this is even more of a potential payout if the startup occurs before the actual NFL Draft. There will be even more scared drafters who do not want to embrace a player without assurances of landing spot. This can turn a value into an exceptional one. Even a “bad” landing spot is more reassuring for these sort of skeptical overlay conservative drafters to deal with rather than the “unknown” spot. Take advantage of this and draft a potential steal.
The Age of the Instant Impact Tight End is Here
So, you’re excited about drafting Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland in your 2025 rookie draft? So am I. So is everyone. New players making instant impacts has become a recurring theme, and it’s happening in an unexpected place — especially for those who have played this game for a long time.
There’s been an onslaught of rookie wide receiver scoring over the past few seasons. Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Puka Nacua — the list continues. In years past, rookie running backs were embraced early and often by drafters looking for an instant edge at the position. Who can forget legendary rookie campaigns from players like Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott, and the dynasty championships they helped managers secure?
But one position that was never supposed to break through with rookies leading the scoring column was tight end. So many legendary tight ends, both in the NFL and in fantasy football circles, failed to deliver as rookies. Don’t believe me? Go check the rookie stats for Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham, Tony Gonzalez, and Antonio Gates.
But a funny thing happened on the way to fading rookie tight ends: Sam LaPorta, and now, Brock Bowers. Back to back seasons of rookie TEs not only finishing as TE1s, but as the TE1 overall.
Not even the wildest speculator will bet on Warren or Loveland becoming the overall TE1 next season. But many will be more open-minded to the idea of them finishing as top-eight scorers at the position. LaPorta and Bowers have opened a cascade effect that will be felt in both the NFL draft, redraft leagues, and dynasty rookie drafts alike. NFL teams have seen the value rookie TEs have provided and will be more willing to take shots on them with a role suited towards them making an instant impact. Fantasy managers — especially dynasty managers — will be even more aggressive when a talented player with strong draft capital becomes available in their rookie drafts and startups. Ties will start to break towards younger players at the position.
Before you brush this aside and say, “I disagree with this take. I’ll fade rookie tight ends next year. Bowers and LaPorta were just exceptions to a rule we should continue to follow, and their two-year run means nothing to my dynasty process,” consider this: Look at the type of players currently thriving at the tight end position. These are not your 6'6", 275-pound NBA power forward types who happen to choose basketball. These are mega-skilled, athletic, overgrown wide receivers — 6'4" and sub-250-pound playmakers.
This prototype is far easier to replicate than trying to hunt down the next Gronk or Graham.
In Warren’s case, he has throwback tight end size combined with eye-opening pass-catching ability and the production (88 receptions — a Big Ten TE record) to back it up.
Did I just talk myself into taking Warren early in my dynasty rookie drafts? One thing is clear — I won’t be the only one.
Offensive Systems and Playcallers: the Icing on the Cake for Player Evaluation
More and more fantasy managers are becoming educated about offensive systems, schemes, and play-callers every year. This is a good thing — you want to be one of these fantasy managers.
In the upcoming draft, certain players are "situation-proof." For example, if Ashton Jeanty is drafted by a team that already has a solid running back in place, it may be time to move on from that established player, as their value is about to take a major hit.
However, for many players in this upcoming draft class, the situation will matter a great deal. Play calling and touch distribution play a significant role in fantasy football outcomes. Just compare your perception of a player in an offense run by an innovative play-caller like Ben Johnson or Liam Coen versus one operating under a more conservative coordinator like Shane Waldron. Offensive tempo, creativity, and usage tendencies can have a significant impact on fantasy scoring output.
While talent, profile, and draft capital should remain your primary focus when evaluating players, understanding offensive context can give you a critical edge. Identifying players with the potential to thrive regardless of system — and knowing which players depend more on scheme and opportunity — can be the difference between winning and losing in fantasy football.
Forget what you know about the Age Apex
We need to have a conversation about the running back age apex. In the past, dynasty managers have been dogmatic in their approach, treating their rosters more like financial portfolios rather than collections of individual situations.
Some managers believe in numerical age indicators — fading a running back on principle once they hit 27 or 28 years old, depending on that manager’s long-standing beliefs. Others follow "touches" indicators, setting thresholds for career carries or total touches that trigger red flags for rostering running backs. The "curse of 1500" and other long-held dynasty and redraft tropes have been turned on their heads this season.
Exceptional seasons have been delivered by older running backs — plenty of them. Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, James Conner, and David Montgomery are all current RB1 (Top-12) scorers. Six of them are at least 27 years old. The lone exception is Josh Jacobs — a 26-year-old with over 1,500 career carries. All of them have gained dynasty value this season — yes, gained.
Look further down the list of RB fantasy point leaders and you’ll find even more older players. Tony Pollard, Aaron Jones, and — for a longer-than-anticipated stretch — Kareem Hunt all provided dynasty managers with significant value this season.
Should we embrace every older running back in dynasty? Certainly not. But should we be more open-minded about more players retaining value? Absolutely.
Oh, and that manager in your league who still firmly believes in the age apex? Send them a reminder that Barkley turns 28 in February.
There will be plenty of time for us to reflect on rankings changes, lessons learned and the offseason that lies ahead. But first, we need to finish this season — and do so with a few league championships. Here are a few players who gained and lost dynasty value this week.
Stock Up
Michael Penix, QB, Atlanta Falcons, 24 Years Old
Dynasty managers who ignored the “Penix won’t start for at least two seasons” narrative are quickly being rewarded. Kirk Cousins struggled mightily, and Raheem Morris is finally making the change. The dynasty managers who selected Michael Penix Jr. at a significant discount are now poised to reap the benefits. Not only do they have another starter, but they have a potentially exciting one for fantasy.
Penix Jr. was a record-setting quarterback who won games — a lot of them — during his time at the University of Washington. He set a Huskies single-season record with 4,903 passing yards, leading them all the way to the national title game before falling to a historically dominant Michigan team.
Now, Penix Jr. has a chance not only to start but to thrive in a situation tailor-made for quarterback success. He’s stepping into an offense that features Robinson, Drake London, and Darnell Mooney. Oh, and maybe he can even resuscitate the dynasty value of Kyle Pitts.
There’s a non-zero chance that Penix becomes a QB1 (Top-12 scorer) sooner rather than later in this newfound role.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars, 22 Years Old
So bold and brave of me to include Brian Thomas Jr. as someone gaining dynasty value. I really went out on a limb with this one. But when it comes to Brian Thomas Jr., we’re not just talking about gaining dynasty value — we’re talking about challenging for Top-5 positional value in the near future.
Would you rather roster Thomas or Nico Collins on your dynasty roster? How about Thomas or Malik Nabers? These are the types of on-the-clock decisions dynasty managers will be faced with during this upcoming startup season.
The last three weeks have showcased the type of target volume and ceiling outcomes that Thomas Jr. managers have dreamed of — and will continue to envision for 2025 and beyond. Over the last three games, he has evolved into an alpha WR1 in both production and usage. During this stretch, he averaged a 29.4% target share (10th among all WRs), a 46.7% air yards share (9th), and 22.6 PPG.
I have BTJ as the WR8 overall in my dynasty rankings. He’s giving off peak Josh Gordon vibes heading into the 2025 season.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals, 29 Years Old
Remember that age apex? James Conner is actually getting better after crossing it. The Arizona Cardinals rewarded him with a two-year extension and an annual salary of $9.5 million.
Another lesson learned for us in fantasy this season? Conner can actually stay healthy. After years of injury-plagued seasons, Conner has played in every game this year — and he’s thrived. He’s averaging 16 PPG, his highest mark since 2021. Last year, he set a single-season career high of 1,040 rushing yards — a number he’ll look to surpass over the next three weeks.
Despite Conner’s age, he appears poised for at least one more season of high-end production heading into 2025. Trey Benson — a heavily hyped prospect and a player I was personally excited about — has failed to make an impact on Conner’s usage. Conner managers can rest assured that, with this new contract, the Arizona Cardinals have no plans to move on from one of dynasty’s best values at the position this season.
Stock Down
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts, 25 Years Old
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. It felt strange to move Jonathan Taylor outside of my Top-10 running back rankings, but it was absolutely the right move. The 2021 RB1 overall has reached a turning point in dynasty. He will finish his third consecutive season with multiple games missed.
If Taylor were delivering his 2021 high-water mark of 22 PPG, dynasty managers could tolerate a few missed games. But this season, Taylor is averaging a pedestrian 14 PPG. After making significant progress as a receiver out of the backfield in 2021 and 2022 on a per-game basis, a combination of too much Anthony Richardson and a general lack of targets has Taylor sitting at a career-low 15 receptions heading into Week 16.
He has failed to deliver spike weeks this season, with only one Top-10 weekly finish — and that was all the way back in Week 3. A “Taylor bailout” in the fantasy playoffs is off to a rough start. Last week against Denver, he fumbled right before crossing the goal line on what would have been a touchdown run. Instead, it turned into a costly turnover. According to Yahoo Fantasy, 7.9% of managers who started him lost their first-round matchup because of that fumble.
Welcome to high-end RB2 land, Jonathan Taylor. Now, go prove me wrong next season. My dynasty shares are certainly hoping I am wrong on this correction.
Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans, 25 Years Old
The Will Levis era in Tennessee may not be completely over, but being benched for Mason Rudolph is certainly a bad omen and a sign that he could be on his way out the door.
Levis has some tools that fantasy managers can latch onto. He has a big arm and some mobility, but he also turns the ball over at an alarming rate. According to The 33rd Team, Levis' 1.6 turnovers per game is the highest average of any quarterback with 11 or more appearances since Jameis Winston in 2019. Unlike Winston, however, Levis hasn’t offset this futility with enough touchdown passes to keep his job.
Tennessee is now at a crossroads at the position. They should be in the market for Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward in the NFL Draft and could be aggressive suitors for Sam Darnold in free agency.
Watch List
Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars, 23 Years Old
Welcome back to the Watch List, Brenton. Earlier in the season, I was intrigued by Strange — a 2023 second-rounder out of Penn State — and his potential impact in the Evan Engram role in Jacksonville. Fast forward to Week 15, and we finally saw him do a great Engram impersonation. Strange led all TEs in targets (12) and catches (11). He has a chance to replicate this usage down the stretch as a complimentary piece to Thomas Jr. in the Jaguars passing game.
Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints, 22 Years Old
Alvin Kamara may be done for the season, and Miller has a chance to lead the Saints backfield. Head Coach Darren Rizzi has sung Miller’s praises. Expect a high-volume role in an offense decimated by injuries. Miller has a chance to regain much of his dynasty value over the next three games.
Jalen McMillan, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 23 Years Old
McMillan is on an absolute tear. He had some midseason hype when Chris Godwin was lost to a season-ending injury (OK, it was me who hyped him), and he delivered very little. Fast forward to the last two weeks, and McMillan is starting to thrive in his role opposite Mike Evans. Over the last two weeks, he has 9 catches for 133 yards and 3 TD grabs. He is a darkhorse flex candidate every week moving forward and a player whose trajectory is trending up heading into the offseason.
Chig Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans, 25 Years Old
Okonkwo could be a huge benefactor with the quarterback change to Rudolph. At one point, Okonkwo was a red-hot name in dynasty after a better-than-anticipated rookie season. He has seen increased usage in games that Rudolph appeared in, and is coming off of a season-high in targets (10) and catches in Sunday’s loss to Cincinnati.
