2024 Week 16 DFS Coverage Shells

This writeup covers the Week 16 game slate. Now that the college regular season has finished, this week's scheduling is different from most.

We have two matchups on Saturday afternoon:

• Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 PM EST)

• Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (4:30 PM EST)

Team Defenses

Quarterback Values

Lucrative Passing Offenses

Wide Receiver/Tight End Values

ARI @ CAR

The Arizona Cardinals (7-7) aim to keep their postseason hopes alive on the road against the Carolina Panthers (3-11) at 1:00 PM EST. The Cardinals are currently 3.5-point road favorites and the game total is hovering around 46.5.

This is a battle between two former number-one overall quarterbacks, Kyler Murray ($6,100) and Bryce Young ($5,300). The former has a favorable coverage matchup.

Defensively, CAR allows the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to QBs this season (+2.9). They’re also deploying single-high coverage third-most in the league (63.4%).

Here are the pass catchers in this one:

TE Trey McBride ($6,200) and WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($5,400) both qualify as favorable plays from a coverage matchup perspective. I will add that CAR allows the third-most schedule-adjusted PPG to opposing TEs (+3.3) and just the 17th-most to opposing WRs (-0.6).

The Cardinals also own our highest-graded pass score this week, which compares offensive lines and opponent pass rushers:

On the other side of the ball, I also find it worth mentioning that CAR WR Adam Thielen ($5,600) and Jalen Coker ($4,200) both participated on >80% of the team’s routes last week and took home >20% target shares each. In last week’s article, I highlighted how that would be the first time they were essentially starting together in this Bryce Young makeover run to end the season.

Xavier Legette ($4,600) participated in 33.3% of the routes after participating in >90% in each of the team’s last four games.

CLE @ CIN

The Cleveland Browns (3-11) will take on AFC North foes the Cincinnati Bengals (6-8) at 1:00 PM EST this Sunday. The Bengals are currently 7.5-point home favorites, and the game total is hovering around 47 points. The Bengals own the third-highest implied team total on the Week 15 slate (27.25).

CLE is rolling with second-year QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($4,800) in place of Jameis Winston in this matchup against Joe Burrow ($7,500).

These teams last played in Week 7, where CIN won by a score of 21-14.

Here are the pass catchers in this matchup:

Defensively, CLE ranks second in single-high usage (65.4%) and fourth in man usage (38.0%).

CIN WR Ja’Marr Chase ($8,500) has wreaked havoc on just about everyone this season, but this has especially been the case vs single-high looks:

On the other hand, teammates Tee Higgins ($6,800) and Mike Gesicki ($3,300) each have made their marks against man coverage relative to Chase:

CLE deployed a very low amount of man vs CIN in Week 7, but that usage has climbed back up as the season has progressed:

It’s important to keep an eye on Higgins’ status throughout the weekend, but looks like he still has a decent shot at suiting up:

LA @ NYJ

The Los Angeles Rams (8-6) travel to the Meadowlands to take on the New York Jets (4-10) at 1:00 PM EST this Sunday. The Rams are currently 3-point road favorites, and the game total is hovering around 46 points.

Matthew Stafford ($5,900) is priced as the DK QB16, and Aaron Rodgers ($5,600) is priced as the DK QB21.

The Rams still have a chance at winning their division and the Jets haven’t played as poorly on offense as their record might suggest.

Defensively, NY ranks 7th in man usage (34.6%) and 9th in single-high usage (56.6%).

LA WR Puka Nacua ($8,000) closely edges out Cooper Kupp ($6,500) in man target share, but has been much more productive in fantasy on a per-route basis:

Similar takeaways against single-high looks:

An important personnel move to be aware of is the elevation of LA TE Tyler Higbee off IR. Assuming he plays, this will be Higbee’s season debut after suffering a torn ACL and MCL in the team’s postseason loss vs DET in 2023.

Defensively, LA ranks 9th in zone coverage usage this season (73.8%).

NYJ WR Davante Adams ($7,100) and Garrett Wilson ($6,600) each command a high target share vs zone and are similarly productive vs zone on a per-route basis:

LA allows the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to WRs lined up on the outside (+4.2), but allows the 4th-fewest to WRs lined up in the slot (-2.5).

Garrett Wilson has run about 60-67% of his routes out wide, both before and following the Davante Adams trade (Adams first game as a Jet was Week 7).

Since arriving in NY, Adams has run 51.3% of his routes from the slot. Throughout their time as teammates, Adams has been heavily targeted and more often when outside relative to Wilson.