Production Profiles: Golden, Williams, Hudson

This piece marks the third edition of my 2025 NFL Draft wide receiver prospect series published throughout the offseason. You can find the most recent one here.

A quick note: I feature a WR in each “tier” in these writeups. Tiers are centered around public consensus and projected draft capital. I generally dive into their production relative to that and then analyze from there.

Tier 1: Matthew Golden | Texas

Height: 5’11” | Weight: 191 | Age: 21.6

Golden played in three college seasons from 2022-2024. His first two came at Houston, before he transferred to Texas for his final season in 2024.

He is projected to be a first-round pick and the second WR off of the board in April’s draft.

Golden is quite the late riser for a WR garnering Round 1 draft capital. His stock had been on a steady climb dating back to last summer before exploding as the 2024 college season progressed:

Here is Golden’s year-over-year production:

None of Golden’s individual seasons were uber-productive on their own. In my opinion, his play in marquee matchups towards the end of this past season swung the door wide open for first-round dialogue in the public square (PFF):

Weeks 1-14:

• 1.66 YPRR

• 1.43 YPTPA

• 0.16 TPRR

• 48.0 YPG

• 13.5% Target Share

Last 4 games (Clemson, Georgia, Arizona State, Ohio State):

• 3.37 YPRR

• 2.96 YPTPA

• 0.24 TPRR

• 102.8 YPG

• 21% Target Share

Although Golden popped off against some of the best competition you could ask for, his earlier 2024 numbers and Houston production just don’t meet the Round 1 threshold you would expect:

Golden ran a 4.29 40 at the NFL Combine and tested out well in other areas, but he didn’t do explosive testing like the broad jump or vertical. He also isn’t the biggest receiver for a guy primarily lined up on the outside. His contested-catch abilities were concerning up until his final year.

• 2022: 37.5% Contested Catch Rate

• 2023: 30.0% Contested Catch Rate

• 2024: 61.1% Contested Catch Rate

Matthew Golden’s 1.85 career YPRR would rank as the lowest by a Round 1 WR since Xavier Legette (1.75).

Some folks have tagged Brian Thomas Jr. as a reason to fade any Golden production questions up to date.

I get it — point at another young, athletic prospect who's fresh in our minds, someone who “beat the odds” achieving fantasy prowess despite subpar college production as a first-round selection.

While I was wrong about BTJ, I still think that is flawed thinking as it pertains to Golden. I'll still play both sides of the coin.

Golden did produce 10+ half-PPR points per game during every college season. He is better than the 50th percentile career HPG among all drafted WRs since 2019 (PFF).

Of that qualifying crop of WRs, the following ones own the lowest career targets per route run:

• D.K. Metcalf (.177)

• Brian Thomas Jr. (.181)

• Matthew Golden (.188)

That was an interesting pull. Those guys all tested well at the combine, but could Matthew Golden simply not be getting targeted enough? With first-round draft capital opportunity certainty, could he finally blow the doors on production in the right offense?

I’m not so sure. Metcalf and Thomas Jr. played alongside some dogs in A.J. Brown at Ole Miss and Malik Nabers at LSU, contributing to the lower target rates.

Another reason is usage. In college, Thomas Jr. had a 5.1% screen target percentage, Metcalf had 5.9%, and Golden had 16.8%.

Further, Metcalf and Thomas Jr. cleared 14 PPG and 2.0 YPTPA during their best seasons, while Golden (11.4 and 1.83) didn’t clear that level of output during his:

There are certainly things to like in Golden's profile. He’s a “true junior” with room to grow, blazing speed, and impressive footwork that all come together when you watch him play. He also did it against the best competition on the biggest stage in 2024.

I’m just not sure he can consistently produce WR1 output over long time horizons at the next level, as we have yet to see it up to this point. I’m interested to see where he lands in the draft!

Tier II: Savion Williams | TCU

Height: 6’3” | Weight: 222 | Age: 23.4

Williams played all five of his college seasons at TCU.

Williams is a projected Day 2 WR slated to be picked at the end of Round 3.

His overall production is alarmingly poor, given his expected draft capital and the fact that he’ll turn 24 years old as a rookie.

Here is his year-over-year receiving production:

Williams owns a 1.56 career yards per route run (PFF).

Among Day 2-3 selections since the 2019 draft, only the following WRs own a lower career YPRR than Williams:

Name	School	Draft	Round	YPRR
Jalen Brooks	South Carolina	2023	7	1.28
Ben Skowronek	Notre Dame	2021	7	1.31
Casey Washington	Illinois	2024	6	1.32
Joshua Palmer	Tennessee	2021	3	1.42
Michael Woods	Oklahoma	2022	6	1.47
Jonathan Mingo	Ole Miss	2023	2	1.48
Hunter Renfrow	Clemson	2019	5	1.51
Devaughn Vele	Utah	2024	7	1.51
Justin Shorter	Florida	2023	5	1.55
Jalen Hurd	Baylor	2019	3	1.55
Savion Williams	TCU	2025	-	1.56

And the following WRs are the only players with a lower career Receiving PPG (Half-PPR):

Name	School	Draft	Round	Half PPG
Jalen Camp	Georgia Tech	2021	6	3.5
Racey McMath	LSU	2021	6	4.0
Casey Washington	Illinois	2024	6	4.4
Cornell Powell	Clemson	2021	5	4.5
Tyrie Cleveland	Florida	2020	7	4.7
Derius Davis	TCU	2023	4	4.8
Freddie Swain	Florida	2020	6	4.8
Jalen Brooks	South Carolina	2023	7	5.0
Joshua Palmer	Tennessee	2021	3	5.2
Velus Jones	Tennessee	2022	3	5.2
Juwann Winfree	Colorado	2019	6	5.2
Tre Tucker	Cincinnati	2023	3	5.3
Justin Shorter	Florida	2023	5	5.4
Terry Godwin	Georgia	2019	7	5.8
Anthony Gould	Oregon State	2024	5	5.8
Riley Ridley	Georgia	2019	4	5.8
Lynn Bowden	Kentucky	2020	3	5.8
Cornelius Johnson	Michigan	2024	7	5.8
Jha'Quan Jackson	Tulane	2024	6	5.9
Jalen Hurd	Baylor	2019	3	6.1
Miles Boykin	Notre Dame	2019	3	6.1
Tejhaun Palmer	UAB	2024	6	6.2
Frank Darby	Arizona State	2021	6	6.2
Ben Skowronek	Notre Dame	2021	7	6.3
Elijah Higgins	Stanford	2023	6	6.3
Devaughn Vele	Utah	2024	7	6.3
Antoine Green	North Carolina	2023	7	6.4
Bo Melton	Rutgers	2022	7	6.4
Savion Williams	TCU	2025	-	6.4

It’s incredibly difficult to imagine Williams producing at a high level in the NFL … at wide receiver.

What helps drive his value and potential draft position is his versatility and athleticism at his size.

Williams had 51 rush attempts, 322 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns in 2024. 16% of his total offensive snaps came out of the backfield or from the QB alignment (PFF).

He was a threat in Wildcat and is a mawler with the ball in his hands. As a rusher, Williams forced 0.43 missed tackles per carry and forced 0.36 per offensive touch during the 2024 season.

Williams also has reps as a returner on special teams. According to PFF, he recorded 29 kickoff returns as a freshman in 2020, 3 combined kickoff returns from 2021-2023, and 7 returns during his final season. Perhaps a pivot back to special teams occurred to show what he could/was willing to take on at the next level.

As a pass catcher, Savion Williams has phenomenal contested catch abilities. Williams owns a whopping 75% career contested catch rate.

Not only is that the best in this year’s draft, but it’s also the highest among all drafted WRs since 2021 with at least 10 contested opportunities (PFF).

Williams has unique skills and athleticism given his 6’3”, 220-pound frame. He has earned legitimate volume as a rusher and elite success rates in contested situations as a receiver.

If Williams were to succeed at the next level, it would likely occur through high-variance fantasy performances in a Cordarrelle Patterson type of role.

Tier III: Kobe Hudson | UCF

Height: 6’1” | Weight: 193 | Age: 22.6

Hudson began college at Auburn in 2020, where he played his first two seasons before transferring to UCF in 2022 to play his final three seasons.

Hudson is projected to be a Day 3 pick. Here is his year-over-year production:

In 2024, Hudson notched 88 targets, which led UCF by a wide margin.

Four different UCF QBs recorded at least 100 dropbacks throughout Hudson’s final two years, which isn’t exactly a recipe for continuity as a receiver. He still posted 2.54 YPRR and 113.5 YPG over this time frame.

With all of that considered, you could still argue that Hudson’s most impressive year came as a sophomore at Auburn in 2021, given his age and the level of competition.

That season, Bo Nix was QB1. Hudson led Auburn in targets (77), receptions (44), and receiving yards (580).

What could Hudson accomplish with some continuity at QB at the next level?

One gray area in Hudson’s profile is his 12.1% career drop percentage, one of the worst you’ll find in this draft class:

Drops aren’t the sharpest metrics in the shed, but with additional context, they can help project future roles. Let me explain..

Hudson is an interesting player. In high school, he played WR as an underclassman but played QB during his junior and senior years. He also has a basketball background.

I want to share part of a high school scouting report on Hudson written by Barton Simmons in 2019:

“Has above average acceleration but doesn’t show elite long speed. More of an elite competitor than an elite athlete. Receiver tape shows good ball-tracking skills.”

These absolutely show up in the research process and on tape. Hudson wasn’t exactly a burner at the Combine:

But the acceleration is there. You can occasionally see it with almost basketball-esque footwork getting off the line of scrimmage. It’s as if his basketball and quarterback backgrounds are coming together and helping win routes early on to try and make up for that lacking long speed.

Here’s where the drops come into play. Hudson might win matchups early in routes via acceleration and nuanced footwork, but NFL corners will have the speed Hudson lacks to make up for any advantage downfield.

This could lead to more contested plays, which are less preferable than open separation regardless of the receiver, quarterback, or offense.

Hudson would be interesting to watch in an NFL landing spot featuring a structured passing game that gets the ball out on time. His strengths at the beginning of routes could complement a first-read approach.

Hudson will more than likely go undrafted in dynasty rookie drafts and is worth a bench stash during training camp.