Week 16 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, meaning Week 17 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 17 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.
Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 17 DFS:
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. CAR)
DraftKings: $6,900 (QB3) | FanDuel: $8,200 (QB4)
Mayfield has seven games of 25.0-plus DraftKings points – a mark that ties for the league lead with Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Jayden Daniels (none of whom are on the main slate). If Mayfield leads all slate-eligible QBs in ceiling games, is there any reason he should be $1,600 cheaper than the slate’s QB1 in a best-possible matchup?
Carolina ranks as the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs since Week 11 (+3.4 FPG) – and this game offers the highest total on the main slate at 49.5. Over the last two years, Mayfield has scored over 26.0 DraftKings points in four of his seven games with a total of over 46.5, averaging 23.5 DraftKings FPG in those contests. Tack on the great matchup, and it’s easy to call him one of the best tournament plays of Week 17.
Mason Rudolph, QB, Tennessee Titans (@ JAX)
DraftKings: $5,000 (QB16) | FanDuel: $6,700 (QB15)
Rudolph averages 17.8 DraftKings fantasy points per start, which ranks 7th-best among slate-eligible QBs. On top of being a strong technical value, Rudolph draws the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+5.1 FPG) against a Jaguars defense that has allowed the most passing YPG (276.5) and the most YPA (8.2). The pay-down options at QB are relatively weak on this eight-game slate, so why not embrace the holiday spirit and save some salary with Rudolph in a perfect matchup?
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts (@ NYG)
DraftKings: $7,900 (RB3) | FanDuel: $8,400 (RB5)
This feels almost too obvious – Taylor just recorded the 3rd-best RB fantasy performance of the season (42.8 DraftKings points), and now he gets a Giants defense that has struggled massively in defending the run. New York ranks as the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted rushing defense for opposing RBs (+2.3 FPG), allowing the 2nd-most rushing YPG (142.6) and the most yards after contact per attempt (2.60). Plus, the Colts are 8.5-point favorites, and Taylor averages +28% more FPG in Colts wins over the last two seasons. It’s hard not to get excited about Taylor’s upside in a must-win game for the Colts.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers (@ TB)
DraftKings: $7,000 (RB7) | FanDuel: $7,600 (RB10)
Hubbard just scored 35.5 DraftKings points on the 2nd-best RB workload of the week (23.3 XFP). It’s difficult to understate just how good his workload is – Hubbard leads all RBs in snap share (91%) and ranks behind only Chase Brown in backfield XFP share (95%) over the last three weeks.
The key caveat with Hubbard is that his workload massively depends on Carolina’s offensive competency. He averages 21.7 XFP/G and 21.8 FPG in the eight games Carolina has either won or lost by 13 or fewer points. In all other games, Hubbard averages just 11.2 XFP/G and 11.3 FPG. So, he’s a bet on the Panthers’ offensive success – but that’s a bet I’m a bit more willing to make with Bryce Young playing notably better in recent weeks.
Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings (VS. GB)
DraftKings: $6,200 (RB11) | FanDuel: $7,400 (RB11)
Jones earned an 82% snap share (his highest since Week 8) on top of 96% of backfield touches in Week 16. That’s incredible usage for a $6,200 RB – only Chase Brown, Chuba Hubbard, and D’Andre Swift earned a higher percentage of their team’s backfield XFP last week. This usage bump makes perfect sense; RB2 Cam Akers is averaging just 3.9 YPC, and Minnesota has a 21% probability to secure the No.1 seed in the NFC – so they need to ride their stars.
That starts with Jones, and it only helps (for fantasy purposes) that this game has the second-highest total on the main slate (49.0, +2.5 points higher than the next-highest game total). Given the game environment and the recent bump in playing time and usage, I expect Jones to be considered a cash game.
AJ Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (VS. DAL)
DraftKings: $7,800 (WR2) | FanDuel: $8,800 (WR2) Brown is coming off of the best workload of any WR in Week 16 (33.7 XFP/G), logging an absurd 54% target share and 68% of the team’s air yards. After Kenny Pickett took over for a concussed Jalen Hurts, Brown earned 13 of the team’s 21 targets.
Pickett’s relative lack of talent compared to Hurts could result in the classic “AJ Brown is down there somewhere” mentality – and we know Brown is capable of massive games when he gets the volume. Targets to Brown are worth 2.28 fantasy points per target, which ranks 7th-best of 54 qualifiers and makes a target to Brown worth more than a target to Justin Jefferson, Nico Collins, and Puka Nacua.
That said, the spread here (Philadelphia -9.5) indicates the market expects Jalen Hurts to play or for Philadelphia to blow out the Cowboys regardless of who is under center. But if Pickett starts, this game could be much closer than Vegas currently suggests, and that would almost certainly lead to a massive workload for Brown.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (VS. TEN)
DraftKings: $6,800 (WR7) | FanDuel: $7,500 (WR8)
Rookie WRs tend to break out in the 2nd-half of the season, and Brian Thomas Jr. is yet another example. Over the last three weeks, Thomas Jr. averages 24.6 XFP/G (WR2), 26.8 DraftKings FPG (WR4), and an absurd 45% first-read target share. All of those numbers would lead all pass catchers over the full season, so why is Thomas being priced as a mid-range WR1 on an eight-game main slate? I have no idea, but I know I want plenty of tournament exposure – even in a bottom-5 on-paper matchup.
Jalen McMillan, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (VS. CAR)
DraftKings: $4,600 (WR26) | FanDuel: $5,900 (WR26)
McMillan led all Tampa Bay pass catchers in XFP (14.0) on Sunday Night, benefiting from a mid-game hamstring pull from Sterling Shepard. McMillan has earned double-digit XFP in five of his last seven games, and he averages 20.0 DraftKings FPG over his last three games – a mark that would rank behind only Justin Jefferson among slate-eligible WRs over the full season.
This is a must-win spot for Tampa Bay (50% probability of winning the NFC South), and Carolina ranks as a fringe top-10 matchup according to recent schedule-adjusted numbers. If Sterling Shepard misses this game, McMillan is simply too cheap relative to his projected workload.
Chig Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans (@ JAX)
DraftKings: $3,600 (TE11) | FanDuel: $5,400 (TE7)
Okonkwo averages 9.5 targets per game and 17.0 XFP/G over Mason Rudolph’s last two starts, on top of a 36% first-read target share. Those numbers easily lead the Titans over this span and would put Okonkwo in the conversation as a high-end TE1 if he kept it up over a full season. And I don’t think it’s a coincidence; Okonkwo’s TPPR jumps from 0.13 in Will Levis’ starts to 0.25 with Rudolph under center.
This comes down to target depth. Okonwo’s aDOT is among the lowest on the Titans at 5.5 yards downfield. Levis ranks 12th among 43 qualifiers in aDOT (8.5), while Rudolph ranks 31st (7.3). A renewed focus on attacking short combined with a top-7 on-paper matchup against Jacksonville makes Okonkwo one of the best ways to punt TE this week.
