This is my second article for Week 13. The first write-up covered the Thanksgiving slate of games, while this piece will cover matchups apart from the Friday-Monday games.
Please note that this article may have slightly different market totals, points, projections, etc from the Thanksgiving writeup due to numbers/information arising throughout the week.
Team Defenses
Coverage rates heading into Week 13 pic.twitter.com/4b5MkjzEyx
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) November 26, 2024
Team Offenses
Quarterback Values
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
LAC @ ATL
The Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) hit the road and are set to take on the Atlanta Falcons (6-5) on Sunday. The Chargers are currently 1-point road favorites and the 48-point game total is the 3rd-highest on the slate.
LAC is coming off a tough loss on Monday Night Football while ATL is fresh off their bye week.
Kirk Cousins ($6,000) and Justin Herbert ($5,600) are priced outside the top-10 DK QBs.
This has a high total and a projected close game between two quarterbacks who aren’t strangers to big passing performances. There’s a chance these offenses pound the rock and limit the passing volume, but there’s certainly a wider range of outcomes regarding gamescript, production, etc.
Both offenses own above average neutral pass rates and play faster than expected. In a closely projected contest with a high total, this could drive up play volume overall.
Here are the notable pass catchers in this matchup:
Defensively, LAC has deployed the third-most zones in the league this season (78.3%) and ranks second in using two-high shells (60.8%).
ATL WR Darnell Mooney ($5,600) is an interesting value play, given the coverage matchup here. Mooney ranks inside the top ten out of 125+ qualifiers in fantasy points per route run (0.63) and yards per route run (2.71) vs two-high defenses.
ATL ranks 6th among defenses in zone usage (74.5%). They’re 25th in EPA per dropback allowed to opposing offenses this season, per rbsdm.com/stats (.129).
On a per dropback basis, Justin Herbert is one of the least efficient fantasy QBs vs man coverage, but ranks inside the top five in points per dropback vs zone:
Defensively, ATL is giving up +6.4 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs, which ranks 29th this season.
More specifically, ATL allows +5.5 to WRs lined up out wide (30th), but allow just +0.6 to slot WRs (18th). These alignment splits are valuable to take into consideration.
Most of you won’t be able to stomach rostering a LAC boundary-X receiver, so you might wonder if Ladd McConkey ($6,100) is a viable play.
Among 100+ qualifiers, McConkey is tied for 5th in expected points per route run when lined up on the outside (0.57). The problem is that he runs just 26% of his total routes out wide.
McConkey leads in zone target share, but ancillary weapons Quentin Johnston ($5,000) and TE Will Dissly ($4,000) aren’t far behind and have produced in fantasy on a per-route basis:
In general, I would prefer McConkey, but those are some low-floor, high-upside plays if you are buying this matchup game script and have a pallet for risky endeavors.
PHI @ BAL
The Philadelphia Eagles (9-2) travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens (8-4) for a 3:25 PM EST start time this Sunday. The Ravens are currently 3-point home favorites, and the 51-point game total stands as the highest on the entire Week 13 slate.
Lamar Jackson ($8,000) is priced as the QB1, and Jalen Hurts ($7,700) is priced as the QB3. They are the fantasy QB1/2 of the entire 2024 season up to this point. No matter the defensive matchup, either one could have elite production any given week. I do think there’s enough evidence to support a more lucrative week for Jalen Hurts vs BAL.
Against BAL, opposing offenses are dropping back to pass at a 63.8% clip in neutral situations, highest in the NFL. Further, BAL allows the most pass attempts (39.2) and passing yards (297.4) per game in the NFL.
Some of this is inflated by the back-and-forth game scripts BAL has played, but their secondary overall is still a suspect unit.
Over the last month, BAL (1.12) and PHI (0.87) have been the top two offenses in fantasy points per dropback vs. man coverage, but they're facing zone coverage at the top ten frequencies.
Jackson and Hurts are efficient against either coverage:
On the season, PHI is dropping back vs. zone (70.8%) and single-high (56.7%), both at the top-10 frequencies.
WR A.J. Brown ($8,300) is an expensive play but has been productive vs both zone and single-high on a per-route basis in fantasy:
PIT @ CIN
The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) hit the road and are set to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (4-7) in an AFC North showdown at 1:00 PM EST this Sunday. The Bengals are currently 2.5-point home favorites, and the game total is 47.5.
Defensively, PIT deploys the most single-high coverage in the NFL (71.6%).
CIN sees single-high looks at the second-lowest rate in the NFL offensively (41.6%), but averages the second-most fantasy points per dropback vs these looks (0.58).
QB Joe Burrow ($7,000), WRs Ja’Marr Chase ($8,600), and Tee Higgins ($6,600) are all viable individual plays from a coverage matchup perspective.
