2024 Week 12 DFS Coverage Shells

The following teams are on a bye in Week 12:

• Atlanta Falcons

• Buffalo Bills

• Cincinnati Bengals

• Jacksonville Jaguars

• New Orleans Saints

• New York Jets

Team Defenses

Quarterback Values

Lucrative Passing Offenses

BAL @ LAC

The Baltimore Ravens (7-4) travel to SoFi stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) in a battle between the Harbaugh brothers on Monday Night Football. The Ravens are currently 3-point road favorites and the 50 point game total stands as the second-highest on the Week 12 slate.

BAL QB Lamar Jackson ($8,000) is the most expensive player at his position and Justin Herbert ($5,400) is priced as the QB20. I find Herbert’s value to be interesting for a number of reasons.

First, opposing offenses are dropping back to pass a lot vs. BAL. BAL allows the highest defensive neutral pass rate in the NFL (63.8%).

Second, BAL allows 0.15 EPA per dropback to opposing offenses, which ranks bottom five among defenses.

Justin Herbert has been a superior QB post their Week 5 bye. Weeks 1-4, Herbert finished as the DK QB 25, 18, 28, 22.

Following the bye, Herbert has finished as the DK QB 22, 12, 12, 13, 8, 7. BAL allows the most passing YPG to opposing QBs this season (304.6).

Defensively, LAC has deployed the 2nd-highest usage of both zone (78.3%) and two-high coverages (61.3%) this season.

Lamar Jackson is far and away the most productive fantasy QB on a per dropback basis vs. both zone and two-high:

Here are the main pass catchers in this matchup:

BAL WR Zay Flowers ($6,700) owns the highest target share in each of these coverage splits, but isn’t as efficient as teammates Rashod Bateman ($4,300) or Isaiah Likely ($3,900).

PHI @ LAR

The Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) take on the Los Angeles Rams (5-5) at SoFi Stadium this week on Sunday Night Football. The Eagles are 3-point road favorites and the 49.5 point game total is currently the 3rd-highest on the slate.

Jalen Hurts ($7,800) is priced as the QB2 and Matthew Stafford ($5,900) is priced as the QB13.

Defensively, LAR deploys a top-10 rate of single-high looks (55.7%). More specifically, they deploy Cover 3 at the 8th-highest rate (35.1%).

PHI phenom A.J. Brown ($7,800) is the 3rd-most expensive WR of the entire week. Brown is dominant vs. single-high, but teammates DeVonta Smith ($5,800) and Dallas Goedert ($4,500) also eat vs. these looks this year:

Taking a closer look at production vs. Cover 3, Goedert has arguably been the most productive PHI pass catcher on a per-route basis:

As for the LAR pass catchers, it’s WRs Cooper Kupp ($7,500) vs. Puka Nacua ($7,100) vs. everyone else.

The first half of the season was a game of musical chairs. Cooper Kupp was sidelined from Weeks 3-7 with an injury, returning in Week 8, and hasn’t missed any time since his return.

Puka Nacua left the season opener with an injury in Week 1. Like Kupp, Nacua was sidelined through Week 7. Like Kupp, Nacua returned in Week 8 and has appeared in every game since.

Offensively, LAR continues to drop back vs. a steady dose of two-high shells with Kupp/Nacua back in the weekly picture:

Puka Nacua has been the more efficient weapon vs. single-high, while Kupp has done more damage vs. two-high:

ARI @ SEA

The Arizona Cardinals (6-4) travel north to take on the Seattle Seahawks (5-5) in an NFC West showdown. The Seahawks are currently 1-point home favorites and the 48 point game total stands as the 4th-highest on the Week 12 slate of games.

Kyler Murray ($6,200) is priced as the QB10 and Geno Smith ($5,700) is priced as the QB16.

SEA is coming off an impressive 20-17 divisional win last week in SF, while ARI is coming off their bye. This is the first time ARI and SEA are playing this season.

Defensively, SEA deploys man coverage at the 9th-highest rate on the season (32.7%). Their man usage has been even higher in recent weeks

Rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,100) dominates his team’s man coverage targets while simultaneously maintaining efficiency vs. man this season:

For ARI defensively, they rank 13th in zone usage (70.2%).

SEA WRs DK Metcalf ($6,600) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,300) are priced relatively closely and they both earn the vast majority of the team’s zone targets.

SEA has struggled in pass protection. They’re set to face an ARI defense that has the 30th-ranked PFF pass rush grade (55.8).

This potentially gives OC Ryan Grubb and the SEA offense some time to develop routes downfield, and we can see that Metcalf comfortably leads in zone first-read target share.