2024 Week 18 DFS Coverage Shells

We are now in the final week of the 2024 NFL regular season. That means all 32 teams playing on either Saturday or Sunday, but not all teams are playing their starters, and/or have incentives to win like others.

That means identifying matchups with aligned incentives for competitive football in all four quarters, along with favorable coverage matchups and favorable passing attacks.

Let’s get to it!

Team Defenses

Quarterback Values

Lucrative Passing Offenses

Wide Receiver/Tight End Values

CAR @ ATL

The Carolina Panthers (4-12) travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons (8-8) at 1:00 PM EST on Sunday. The Falcons are currently 8-point home favorites and the game total is hovering around 48.5, tied for the 2nd-highest game total on the entire Week 18 slate.

ATL still has a chance at the postseason. They need to win this game vs CAR and they need NO to beat TB to make the playoffs.

It’s hard to see CAR going down without attempting to play spoiler to their divisional foes in ATL.

Defensively, CAR allows the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing QBs this season (+2.4), while ATL allows the 6th-most (+1.0).

Bryce Young ($5,800) and Michael Penix Jr. ($5,400) are priced outside the top 15 DK QBs this week.

Here are the notable pass catchers in this matchup:

CAR deploys single-high coverage at the 3rd-highest rate among defenses (63.2%).

ATL WR Drake London ($6,500) commands the single-high target share and is the most productive fantasy pass catcher vs single-high on a per-route basis:

Additionally, CAR has interesting defensive splits vs WRs based on alignment. They give up the 6th-most schedule-adjusted PPG to WRs lined up on the outside (+1.3), but the 2nd-fewest to WRs lined up in the slot (-3.8).

London runs >60% of his routes from the outside. Over the last two games with Penix starting, London owns a team-high 34% target share, and Darnell Mooney ($5,100) comes in 2nd at 16%.

For ATL defensively, they allow the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted PPG to opposing WRs (+2.3).

They give up the most schedule-adjusted PPG to outside WRs (+3.7) and bottom-10 to slot WRs (-1.6).

ATL is diverse from a coverage standpoint, so these alignment splits stick out.

Rookie WR Xavier Legette ($4,200) leads the team in targets (53), yards (303), and PPR points (79.7) when lined up on the outside. Fellow rookie Jalen Coker ($4,100) leads in target share (22.9%), yards market share (34.1%), first-read target share (27.1%), and fantasy points per route run (0.38) from the outside.

WAS @ DAL

The Washington Commanders (11-5) travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys (7-9) in this regular-season finale. The Commanders are currently 5.5-point road favorites and the game total is hovering around 44.

No matter what happens in this game, WAS has already earned a playoff berth. But they do have control over seeding. If WAS defeats DAL, they earn the 6th seed and would avoid playing PHI. As it stands, and if WAS wins, they’ll play the #3 seed, likely being LAR or TB.

WAS HC Dan Quinn has stated the team will play its starters, and the markets reflect this.

Remember that these teams last played in Week 12, where DAL won 34-26. But don’t let that final score deceive you, as it was just 10-9 entering the 4th quarter.

Here are some of the notable pass catchers in this rematch. It’s important to note that DAL WR CeeDee Lamb is out for the season:

Defensively, DAL deploys single-high coverage at the 12th-highest rate in the league (55.8%) and two-high at just the 21st-ranked usage (44.2%). They don’t lean very heavily one way the other but generally have run more single-high looks.

WAS WR Olamide Zaccheaus ($4,500) has been a hot name in recent weeks. Teammate Noah Brown is on IR and hasn’t played since Week 13, and that is really where Zaccheaus began to take off.

Zaccheaus’ target share climbed from 10% during that final week with Noah Brown healthy, to 12.9%, 20.5%, and 25% in each subsequent game since:

If you buy into these trends, Zaccheaus is a good play, but if you weigh the DAL single-high preferability into the equation, WR Terry McLaurin ($6,800) comes back into play, as he is more efficient against single-high looks this season:

As for WAS defensively, they rank 4th in man coverage usage since their first matchup vs DAL (42.0%). On the season, WAS ranks 6th in man usage (34.8%). In a game with seeding implications and some leniency to take risks given the playoff berth no matter what, on top of WAS seemingly playing their starters, they do have some room to take risks generating pressure.

DAL WR KaVontae Turpin ($3,400) is an interesting play if you have an appetite for risk.

Turpin is far more efficient vs man than he is vs zone, and stands out compared to the rest of the available DAL pass catchers with CeeDee Lamb sidelined:

WR Brandin Cooks ($4,700) is the volume target with Lamb out, as he saw a team-high 27.6% target share without Lamb in last week’s game. But Turpin, Jalen Tolbert ($4,300), and Jake Ferguson ($3,900) all tied for 2nd in target share in last week’s game at 13.8% a piece.

If more opportunities have opened up with the absence of Lamb, Turpin’s man coverage splits are enough evidence to consider him as a diverse play in DFS formats.

NO @ TB

The New Orleans Saints (5-11) hit the road and get set to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) at 1:00 PM EST this Sunday. The Buccaneers are currently a whopping 14-point home favorite and the game total is at 43.5.

This game has a projected brutal game script, but the Buccaneers need to win the game to make the playoffs. There are also some incentives to keep an eye out for, particularly with TB WR Mike Evans ($8,000):

Here are the relevant pass catchers in this matchup:

Defensively, TB deploys the most zone coverage in the league (80.4%) and the 5th-most single-high looks (59.9%).

NO WR Chris Olave ($5,200) hasn’t played since Week 9, but has been a full participant in practice over the last few days:

With this being the last game of the Saints’ season no matter what, Olave being a full participant this late in the week could be seen as encouraging, presuming the Saints want to play him.

Olave is targeted on a high amount of his zone and single-high routes, and notably more often than the other NO pass catchers:

In Olave’s last full game in Week 8, he finished with 13 targets, 107 receiving yards and 18.7 PPR points (26.3 XFP). QB Spencer Rattler ($4,800) was the starter in this game.

For NO defensively, they deploy two-high shells at the 7th-highest rate in the league (52.6%).

Mike Evans is the best play among TB pass catchers, but Jalen McMillan ($5,100) or a healthy Cade Otton ($4,200) aren’t poor options vs two-high looks:

McMillan and Otton are notably more productive vs two-high on a per-route basis relative to single-high looks: