2024 Week 14 DFS Coverage Shells

The following teams are on a bye in Week 14:

• Baltimore Ravens

• Denver Broncos

• Houston Texans

• Indianapolis Colts

• New England Patriots

• Washington Commanders

Team Defenses

Quarterback Values

Lucrative Passing Offenses

Wide Receiver/Tight End Values

ATL @ MIN

The Atlanta Falcons (6-6) head up north to take on the Minnesota Vikings (10-2) at 1:00 PM EST on Sunday. The Vikings are currently 5.5-point home favorites and the game total is at 46.

This is the Kirk Cousins ($5,500) homecoming/revenge game. Cousins hasn’t played well in recent weeks, but this game has the potential to be fantasy-friendly for passing/receiving matchups on either sideline. Defensively, MIN has allowed the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing WRs (+7.4), while ATL is giving up the fourth-most (+5.4) this year.

Here are the notable pass catchers in this matchup:

Defensively, ATL deploys zone coverage at a top ten rate in the NFL (73.7%).

WRs Justin Jefferson ($7,800) and Jordan Addison ($5,300) are similarly productive vs zone on a per-route basis, but Jefferson commands a higher share of the targets:

MIN deploys two-high shells at a league-high 65.2% clip on defense.

ATL WRs Drake London ($6,400) and Darnell Mooney ($5,500) are similarly productive vs two-high looks on a per-route basis:

In recent weeks, London has seen his expected fantasy points per game climb, while Mooney’s and TE Kyle Pitts ($4,100) have been stagnant. Have to wonder if Mooney’s value is more closely affected by the performance/efficiency of Cousins:

LV @ TB

This next game is a cross-conference showdown between the Las Vegas Raiders (2-10) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6). The Buccaneers are currently 7-point home favorites with the game total hovering around 47.

This feels like one of those games that could go in any direction despite TB being favored by 7-points. Either way, there are pass-catcher matchups worth considering from a coverage matchup perspective, as well as notes on the QBs.

Defensively, TB is allowing +5.8 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs this season, 2nd-highest in the NFL. LV allows the 7th-most at +1.5.

Another similarity between these defenses is that they like to blitz. TB blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL (43.4%) and LV blitzes at the 4th-highest rate (34.3%).

QBs Baker Mayfield ($6,400) and Aidan O’Connell ($4,800) are both productive against the blitz from a fantasy perspective. O’Connell is notably much more productive on a per-dropback basis relative to non-blitzed dropbacks:

Here are the pass catchers in this matchup:

LV deploys man coverage (32.7%) and two-high shells (50.0%) at top ten rates in the NFL defensively.

Further, LV gives up the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs (+3.5), but just the 23rd-most to opposing WRs (-2.5) this season.

WR Mike Evans ($7,200) is never a bad play when he’s healthy. But if you’ve got an appetite for risk, TE Cade Otton ($4,400) is a cheap additional play.

Evans is the clear top target vs man coverage, but two-high opens things up for other ancillary weapons in that TB passing attack:

Since the season-ending injury for WR Chris Godwin in week 7, Evans owns an 18.2% target share vs two-high looks, while Otton owns a 17.1% share. Over that same time, Otton leads TB in two-high first-read target share at 20.0%, while Evans is at 18.8%.

Defensively, TB deploys zone coverage at the highest rate in the league (80.2%) and single-high looks at the 6th-highest rate (57.6%).

TE Brock Bowers ($6,500) has finished inside the top three DK TEs in 2 of 3 games since the Raiders’ bye in week 10. Bowers has finished inside the top five DK TEs in 7 of 12 games this season.

The rookie is on a roll and remains a weekly consideration given the weak target competition and negative game scripts.

WR Jakobi Meyers ($5,600) isn’t a bad option on the cheaper end. Meyers owns a higher target share and similar production on a per-route basis vs single-high looks:

BUF @ LA

The Buffalo Bills (10-2) take on the Los Angeles Rams (6-6) for a 3:25 PM EST kickoff this Sunday. The Bills are currently 4.5-point road favorites and the game total is at 49.

One area that could serve as a vulnerability to passing production is between the LA offensive line vs the BUF pass rush unit. BUF ranks 6th in PFF team pass rush grade (75.9) while LA owns the 31st ranked pass block grade (50.2).

It does look as though Rams LT Alaric Jackson is good to go for Sunday:

Defensively, BUF deploys both zone coverage (74.1%) and two-high shells (55.6%) at top ten rates in the league.

If you’re looking for the cheaper play, WR Cooper Kupp ($7,000) is nearly as productive as Puka Nacua ($7,700) vs. zone coverage, but separates himself vs. two-high looks:

Defensively, LA deploys zone coverage at the 10th-highest rate in the league (73.1%).

BUF WR Khalil Shakir ($5,900) owns the highest target share and is the most productive on a per-route basis vs zone coverage: