Every week, I will be diving into the Fantasy Points Data to provide our readers with actionable and winning insights into your season. This week provided a lot of valuable data points for things going forward and showcased some of the major improvements players have made. I will focus mainly on ASS (Average Separation Score) but blend in plenty of metrics that offer a full picture, like first-read targets.
If you are new to the term ASS don’t worry — we have covered the ASS metric in great detail with What's the deal with ASS? and Our ASS Sleepers and Breakouts.
Top ASS Overall
(Minimum 150 routes run)
Puka Nacua (LA)
Nacua is the only player this season to record a game with over 5.00 yards per route run and an A.S.S. score under 0.100. His ability to make catches in tight coverage is exceptional, and playing with a quarterback like Matthew Stafford has highlighted this at a high level. These two operate like yin and yang: Stafford places the ball where only Nacua can reach it, and Nacua makes incredible catches that few others could pull off, as demonstrated in the video below.
Puka Nacua, you are an absolute maniac. So insanely good in so many different ways. pic.twitter.com/wBDZfEuPOc
— Rams Bros. (@RamsBrothers) December 8, 2024
Now that Nacua, Kupp, and the Rams' offensive line are healthier, I expect to see a high-level offense as we round out the season. This team should be capable of putting up big numbers against any opponent moving forward. In my opinion, this is a team you do not want to see in the playoffs if you are the Lions or the Eagles.
Christian Watson (GB)
Since Week 8, Watson has posted the highest A.S.S. score in the NFL among players with at least 100 routes run. During this stretch, he has commanded a 42.8% air yard share and averaged an impressive 3.54 yards per route run. However, his target share sits at just 18.8%, with a first-read share of 22.2%. Despite battling numerous injuries and enduring a frustrating timeshare at wide receiver, Watson can deliver some explosive performances as the season winds down, setting the stage for a strong playoff impact.
For example, this weekend, the Packers take on a Seahawks' defense that has been outstanding recently, but they lean heavily on man coverage. Against man coverage since Week 8, Watson has excelled, averaging 4.64 yards per route run with a win rate of 36.4%. This matchup could present the opportunity for Watson to shine and deliver some pivotal performances.
Weekly Bad ASS
For once, being a "Bad ASS" isn't a compliment, and the wide receivers on this list have some work to do. In the NFL, separation is crucial — it's what makes a receiver effective.
Those with the lowest Average Separation Scores (ASS) struggle to get open, forcing quarterbacks to make riskier throws. Being on this list suggests issues with route-running, knowledge of how to beat coverage, speed, or timing with the quarterback.
For these receivers, improving their separation is vital to becoming more reliable targets. The coming weeks will be key as they aim to move off this list and show they're more than just "Bad ASS."
(Minimum 20 routes run)
CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
The quarterback play and the shoulder injury CeeDee Lamb is dealing with are significant reasons why he posted a negative A.S.S. score this weekend. Lamb is managing an AC joint sprain, which I imagine is making it difficult for him to effectively engage in hand fighting at the line of scrimmage and down the field. This marks the second consecutive week the Bengals posted a negative A.S.S. score with their number-one wide receiver. However, Lamb’s 17% win rate on key plays enabled him to produce a relatively productive outing. I am concerned that we may be approaching a point where the Cowboys decide to shut down Lamb, especially if they fall out of playoff contention. Only time will tell if that will ultimately be the case.
Notable Weekly ASS
(Minimum 20 routes run)
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
Chase posted a win rate of over 30% against both Man and Zone coverage this weekend, marking his best performance of the season from an A.S.S. perspective. The Cowboys allowed him to face a significant amount of one-on-one coverage throughout the game, and neither DaRon Bland nor Trevon Diggs could keep up with him. Chase is arguably the best wide receiver in football right now, excelling in a variety of ways.
He can beat defensive backs off the line and win with speed on a go route, take a slant pass and break multiple tackles for a long touchdown, or create separation with precision in the short areas of the field. Much debate centers around Higgins vs. Chase and who the true "alpha" is, especially since Higgins has out-targeted Chase in games they’ve played together. The reality is simple: these two are both alpha-level players who complement each other exceptionally well. While Chase can deliver jaw-dropping plays, Higgins provides an elite ability to win contested catches and dominate downfield in ways that are nearly impossible to defend one-on-one.
Adam Thielen (CAR)
Thielen dominated Cooper DeJean this weekend and might be on his way to being a league winner as we end the season. Over the past two games, he has had 10 or more targets in both, a first-read share at 31.5%, and he’s been Bryce Young’s safety blanket. In the fantasy playoffs, Thielen will face the Cowboys, Cardinals, and Buccaneers. Against these three teams, Thielen should be able to produce high-level fantasy games in PPR format, which will be a must-start. Against the Eagles, Thielen posted the 8th-highest A.S.S. score against their secondary, and among players with at least 20 routes from the slot, he had the highest score of the year. Young thrives on timing and precision, and right now, Thielen’s ability to separate will be a key feature of this offense to end the season.
Breakout Performance This Weekend
Elijah Moore (CLE)
The Chiefs' secondary has struggled to defend the slot in recent weeks. Josh Palmer recently posted a win rate of 21.7% and an impressive 3.39 yards per route run. Additionally, Xavier Legette and Adam Thielen exploited the Chiefs' slot defenders, delivering high-level production.
In this matchup, I expect Steve Spagnuolo to treat Moore as the third option, with the Chiefs' defensive focus primarily on Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku. This should allow Moore to face plenty of one-on-one matchups, creating opportunities for him to win and produce effectively. Both Jerry Jeudy and Moore appear poised for big games this weekend against the Chiefs' defense.
