Every week, I will be diving into the Fantasy Points Data to provide our readers with actionable and winning insights into your season. This week provided a lot of valuable data points for things going forward and showcased some of the major improvements players have made. I will focus mainly on ASS (Average Separation Score) but blend in plenty of metrics that offer a full picture, like first-read targets.
If you are new to the term ASS don’t worry — we have covered the ASS metric in great detail with What's the deal with ASS? and Our ASS Sleepers and Breakouts.
Top ASS Overall
(Minimum 200 routes run)
Christian Watson (GB)
Watson was a player I highlighted from a metrics standpoint in last week’s A.S.S. Report. I will continue to plead for patience with developmental prospects—players who require time to refine their talent and showcase their full potential. Watson is the definition of a developmental wide receiver: an FCS product who never had a 1,000-yard season, a standout at the Senior Bowl who impressed with his combination of size and speed, and a player who rose in the draft because of these traits combined with an exceptional combine performance.
Watson entered the NFL with lofty expectations after the Packers traded away Davante Adams. However, his early career was marred by issues, including drops and a lingering hamstring injury, significantly impacting his value. This offseason, my interest in Watson grew after learning about a study conducted by the University of Wisconsin, which revealed a 20% difference in muscle strength between his hamstrings. Now, he’s having a mostly healthy season—one free from constant rehabbing, allowing him to focus on playing and building chemistry with Jordan Love.
The only problem preventing an Alpha-level ascension for Watson is this incredibly frustrating, but justified, rotation at wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers. This group of players can contribute and perform in a variety of ways. Despite the rotation, Watson still has the potential to be the most critical piece in the Packers' passing game, much like Nico Collins is for the Texans. He’s not at the Collins level yet, but he is developing, and the strides he has made are extremely promising. While the production hasn’t fully matched his progress yet, his increased playing time in recent weeks has me optimistic that it’s coming.
Rashod Bateman (BAL)
Lamar Jackson is having one of his best seasons as a passer, and Derrick Henry’s contributions, along with the health and separation abilities of both Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers, have been key factors in that success. I do wish Bateman played in a more pass-friendly offense, but it’s encouraging to see the film align with the data: he’s winning on routes at a high level. However, the offensive scheme and overall functionality limit his production potential.
Bateman currently has a 14.8% first-read share, which pales in comparison to players like Wan’Dale Robinson (24.6%) and Hunter Henry (20.0%). Predicting Bateman’s spike weeks—like his standout performance against the Giants—remains challenging. That said, he stands out as the best separator against zone coverage, posting a 0.164 score and averaging 2.11 yards per route run. This weekend, the Steelers played a lot of man coverage against Lamar Jackson trusting their edge rushers and spy to hold Lamar down from scrambling. The following week against the Texans will be the better matchup if he can avoid Derek Stingley in coverage.
Weekly Bad ASS
For once, being a "Bad ASS" isn't a compliment, and the wide receivers on this list have some work to do. In the NFL, separation is crucial — it's what makes a receiver effective.
Those with the lowest Average Separation Scores (ASS) struggle to get open, forcing quarterbacks to make riskier throws. Being on this list suggests issues with route-running, knowing how to beat coverage, speed, or timing with the quarterback.
For these receivers, improving their separation is vital to becoming more reliable targets. The coming weeks will be key as they aim to move off this list and show they're more than just "Bad ASS."
(Minimum 20 routes run)
Elijah Moore (CLE)
Moore was completely shut down by the Chiefs' secondary this weekend, and the passing game struggled. He showed signs of trouble the previous week with a low separation score, but I expected a bounce-back performance in a more favorable matchup.
Now that Jameis Winston is no longer the starter, the Browns' wide receivers as a group are likely to take a significant hit. With Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the starting quarterback, this passing attack is poised to get much worse before it gets better.
Notable Weekly ASS
(Minimum 20 routes run)
Jalen McMillan (TB)
Since Week 12, McMillan has posted separation scores of 0.294, 0.033, 0.231, and 0.277, and over the last two weeks, that separation has translated into high-level production for the rookie wide receiver. While he doesn’t hold the full-time slot role I hoped for, he has been running routes from the slot over the past three weeks, producing splash plays from that alignment.
McMillan is now finally on the field for the majority of routes, and being paired with Mike Evans allows him to avoid facing primary boundary corners. I’m optimistic about McMillan’s future in Tampa Bay’s offense, particularly if offensive coordinator Liam Cohen stays with the team. His development within this system is already taking shape, and I expect him to solidify himself as the clear number two option in the passing game before the season ends.
With Chris Godwin out of the lineup, McMillan’s role becomes even more critical as the Buccaneers head into the playoffs. While Mike Evans can carry the load on his own, having another reliable option will be essential for both Baker Mayfield and this offense. McMillan’s recent production and separation scores show he is capable of delivering at a high level, and his continued growth could be a key factor for Tampa Bay’s postseason success.
Davante Adams (NYJ)
The Jaguars allowed Adams to run 22 routes against man coverage, where he posted an impressive 45.5% win rate and averaged 5.59 yards per route run. The Jets, however, will not have the same luxury against their upcoming opponents, as those teams are unlikely to play high rates of man coverage. That said, they do face some struggling secondaries, and with this season essentially meaningless, I expect Rodgers and Adams to focus on connecting as much as possible—potentially as a way to stay aligned heading into next season.
Since the bye week, Adams and Wilson have essentially been the Jets' passing game, accounting for a 68% first-read share and 55.6% target share combined. While their production likely won’t replicate what we saw against the Jaguars, this trend should continue. If you’re managing a best-ball or fantasy team that survived with Adams, you can still expect meaningful production down the stretch.
Breakout Performance This Weekend
Mike Evans (TB)
Mike Evans’ quest for another 1,000-yard season will require a big performance against the Cowboys. Dallas has become a much more aggressive defense lately, increasing their use of man coverage. Among players with at least 75 routes against man coverage this season, no one has a higher win rate than Mike Evans at 43.2%.
Coming off a massive 159-yard performance against the Chargers, Evans is well-positioned for another standout game. Given the Cowboys' depleted secondary, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him surpass that total and take a major step toward hitting the 1,000-yard mark.
