The A.S.S. Report: 2024 Week 16

Every week, I will be diving into the Fantasy Points Data to provide our readers with actionable and winning insights into your season. This week provided a lot of valuable data points for things going forward and showcased some of the major improvements players have made. I will focus mainly on ASS (Average Separation Score) but blend in plenty of metrics that offer a full picture, like first-read targets.

If you are new to the term ASS don’t worry — we have covered the ASS metric in great detail with What's the deal with ASS? and Our ASS Sleepers and Breakouts.

Top ASS Overall

(Minimum 250 routes run)

A.J. Brown (PHI)

I do not believe Kenny Pickett will hurt A.J. Brown’s production or ability to deliver a big game in the upcoming matchup against the Cowboys. In last week’s game against the Commanders, 13 of Pickett’s 24 targets went to Brown, and the Cowboys' defense appears to be even more exploitable. The main factor that could limit Brown’s performance is Saquon Barkley, but I anticipate Dallas will focus on containing Barkley by stacking the box and relying on their defensive backs to handle one-on-one matchups against Brown and DeVonta Smith.

While Pickett isn’t the best quarterback in the league, this defensive approach might force him to throw more, particularly in the red zone. In the first matchup against the Cowboys, Brown had an impressive win rate of 22.2% and averaged 4.04 yards per route run. If Jalen Hurts is unable to play, I expect Pickett to target Brown heavily once again, leading to production similar to what Brown achieved in their first meeting with Dallas.

Ladd McConkey (LAC)

McConkey is currently one of the best wide receivers in the NFL and has shown consistent improvement each week. Since Week 10, he has averaged 2.87 yards per route run with an average separation score of 0.158. While his stature might suggest he’s primarily a slot receiver, he has proven capable of making big plays out wide. He has no trouble winning on the perimeter — since Week 10, he has averaged an impressive 5.07 yards per route run out wide with an average separation score of 0.122.

This is a complete playmaker paired with one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league, and I’m excited about what McConkey will bring to the Chargers' offense in the long term. If the Chargers can pair him with a player like Tee Higgins and draft a running back like Ashton Jeanty, this offense could become one of the most dangerous in the NFL. The thought of McConkey, Jeanty, and Higgins together is enough to give opposing defenses nightmares.

With those offensive upgrades, the Chargers could focus on building out their defense with the right pieces to fit Jesse Minter’s scheme, a process they’ve already started successfully in last year’s draft. While I don’t expect the Chargers to make a deep playoff run this year, adding players like Jeanty and Higgins in the offseason could elevate them to elite contender status in the NFL.

Weekly Bad ASS

For once, being a "Bad ASS" isn't a compliment, and the wide receivers on this list have some work to do. In the NFL, separation is crucial — it's what makes a receiver effective.

Those with the lowest Average Separation Scores (ASS) struggle to get open, forcing quarterbacks to make riskier throws. Being on this list suggests issues with route-running, knowing how to beat coverage, speed, or timing with the quarterback.

For these receivers, improving their separation is vital to becoming more reliable targets. The coming weeks will be key as they aim to move off this list and show they're more than just "Bad ASS."

(Minimum 20 routes run)

Khalil Shakir (BUF)

Shakir was locked up by the Patriots’ defenders this weekend, resulting in his second-worst game of the season when seeing at least six targets. This performance raises concerns about his reliability in the postseason and underscores the importance of players like Amari Cooper, Dalton Kincaid, and Keon Coleman for the Bills’ playoff run. For the Bills to navigate the challenging postseason ahead, at least one of these players must perform at a high level in each game.

While Shakir cannot carry the offense on his own, he can still be an effective complementary piece, contributing to key plays that sustain drives. However, from a dynasty fantasy perspective, I recommend moving off Shakir if you can secure high value in return. He is a good player but not an elite one, and he appears to be replaceable. His win rate is below 5% out wide and under 10% from the slot, which indicates he struggles to create separation. While he has excellent hands, the film suggests he isn’t a high-value player, and much of his statistical production can be attributed to how exceptional Josh Allen has been as a quarterback.

Notable Weekly ASS

(Minimum 20 routes run)

Zay Flowers (BLT)

Flowers’ 0.609 score is the highest of any game this season for a player running 20 routes in a game, showcasing just how exceptional he is as a route runner. His quick-twitch style is unparalleled, and on routes that require horizontal breaks, his ability to change direction and create separation is unmatched. Additionally, his effectiveness on scramble drills, where Lamar Jackson breaks containment, poses a nightmare challenge for opposing cornerbacks to defend.

Though Flowers sustained an injury—hopefully a minor one—his recent performances alongside Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews are setting the Ravens up for a strong postseason run. With the team in position to secure home-field advantage if the Steelers falter, Flowers’ continued health and playmaking will be critical. He is currently one of the NFL’s top-tier separators, and his unique skills significantly elevate the Ravens' offensive dynamics.

This Ravens team is built for postseason success. The decision to move Kyle Hamilton to a full-time safety role has dramatically improved their pass defense metrics, a crucial adjustment as they prepare to face elite quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. If Flowers stays healthy and Hamilton continues to thrive in his role, the Ravens have all the tools to make a deep playoff run.

Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX)

Thomas has now logged four straight games with 10 or more targets, and this past weekend, he recorded the most receiving yards of his career. Interestingly, his separation metrics for this game were the third lowest of the season, and his win rate was just 2.9%. His big plays largely came from blown coverages, and even on routes where he succeeded, Mac Jones often missed him, as highlighted in the Baldy breakdown below.

This weekend’s game should be exciting for Thomas, as he’s facing a team against which he recorded his third-highest win rate earlier this season. The chemistry between him and Jones has improved since then, which could lead to even better results. Among players with at least 100 vertically breaking routes, Thomas has the second-highest separation score, trailing only Nico Collins. His yards per route run on these routes would likely be much higher if he had benefited from more consistent quarterback play earlier in the season, particularly with Lawrence’s struggles during that period. As the connection with Jones continues to develop, Thomas is poised to make a significant impact on championship weekend.

Breakout Performance This Weekend

Darnell Mooney (ATL)

Don’t just look at Michael Penix Jr.’s box score from his game against the Giants—turn on the tape, and you’ll see he was delivering strikes. This performance suggests we could see a breakout game from Darnell Mooney against a Commanders’ defense that will likely employ a lot of Cover 1 coverage, similar to what they used against the Eagles last weekend. Mooney’s skill set is perfectly suited for exploiting big-play opportunities, especially in a matchup like this.

In contrast, Drake London might face a tougher challenge against Marshon Lattimore or Mike Sarinstill, who bring a more physical style of coverage. Even so, I’m optimistic about the Falcons’ passing attack in this game. Penix has the tools to shine on the national stage, and this matchup offers a glimpse into what could become a fun rivalry in the years ahead.

With Mooney’s impressive 42.9% win rate against man coverage last weekend, I’m hopeful he can maintain that level of play with Penix. This game has the potential to be a high-flying showcase for Penix and the continued success of Jayden Daniels.