Every week, I will be diving into the Fantasy Points Data to provide our readers with actionable and winning insights into your season. This week provided a lot of valuable data points for things going forward and showcased some of the major improvements players have made. I will focus mainly on ASS (Average Separation Score) but blend in plenty of metrics that offer a full picture, like first-read targets.
If you are new to the term ASS don’t worry — we have covered the ASS metric in great detail with What's the deal with ASS? and Our ASS Sleepers and Breakouts.
Top ASS Overall
(Minimum 150 routes run)
A.J. Brown (PHI)
Brown is having an insanely efficient year, and if this team needs to air it out, he’s ready to win them a game. The problem with Brown right now is that there’s no need for the Eagles to throw when they get close to the goal line. They’re rarely trailing by a significant margin, and even when they are, their pass rate is only 50%. Jalen Hurts hasn’t thrown more than 30 passes since Week 4, the week prior to their bye. While some of that can be credited to not having DeVonta Smith, this is how they should operate until a team can stop them from running the ball or scoring heavily on defense.
In games in which Brown has played over 70% of the snaps, he has a 30.8% target share, a 54.7% air yardage share, a 40.5% first-read share, and is averaging 3.86 yards per route run. Those metrics highlight just how elite Brown has been this year — they all rank near the top across the NFL. The separation metrics are just the icing on the cake. He is one of three WRs to run over 150 routes and have over a 24% win rate. He and Aiyuk are the only players in the NFL to run over 150 routes and achieve over a 30% win rate against Man coverage and a 20% win rate against Zone coverage.
This Eagles roster is top-tier in the NFL. They are putting it all together, and Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio are starting to learn how to best play their systems. I have them as my favorite to come out on top in the NFC.
Jerry Jeudy (CLE)
Jeudy has been on an exceptional run over the past few weeks, and while his separation metrics haven’t changed much from when he was playing with Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson last season, the key difference is having a quarterback who can find him over the middle of the field. Jeudy has posted over 70 receiving yards in three straight games on horizontally breaking routes, showcasing his improved understanding of route depth and his ability to capitalize on opportunities. Jeudy has always had the skill to become a good WR if you watch him run routes but the understanding of the game was crucial
Jameis Winston’s willingness to let him make plays has been a perfect fit for Jeudy’s skill set. Kevin Stefanski, a great offensive playcaller, has been hampered by a mismatched quarterback and an immovable contract. Hopefully, the team opts to go in a different direction at QB moving forward, which could unlock the full potential of their WRs and make the system more effective.
Courtland Sutton (DEN)
Bo Nix has proven to be the perfect fit for Sean Payton’s offense, though it took some time to fully execute the scheme at the required level and align everyone with its functioning. The WR rotation has been a key part of this success, employing diverse groupings that create opportunities for someone to make a play. Nix has excelled at identifying the correct target and protection pre-snap, demonstrating advanced decision-making for a rookie quarterback.
Courtland Sutton has also significantly stepped up his game, benefiting from adjustments that free him up at the snap. Whether it’s motioning another player outside of him or running deep crossers with speed receivers clearing space to that side of the field, the offense has maximized Sutton’s potential. Sutton has recorded six straight games with at least 70 receiving yards and has posted some of the highest win rates of the season. Among WRs since Week 8 with at least 100 routes, Sutton leads the league with an A.S.S. of 0.203, a win rate of 20.3%, and an average of 3.09 yards per route run.
Sutton is playing the best football of his career, thriving in a system that puts him in optimal positions, and his performance has been instrumental in Nix’s growth as a rookie QB. It’s remarkable to see Sutton develop into such an elite separator at this stage of his career. This transformation is reminiscent of the impact Nico Collins has had on C.J. Stroud, highlighting the synergy between a high-functioning veteran receiver and a young, talented quarterback. When the facts change, we should take note — and watching Sutton right now is a testament to his work, Sean Payton and Bo Nix. It’s wild to write that after the year with Russell Wilson but they were not the right fit.
Weekly Bad ASS
For once, being a "Bad ASS" isn't a compliment, and the wide receivers on this list have some work to do. In the NFL, separation is crucial — it's what makes a receiver effective.
Those with the lowest Average Separation Scores (ASS) struggle to get open, forcing quarterbacks to make riskier throws. Being on this list suggests issues with route-running, knowledge of how to beat coverage, speed, or timing with the quarterback.
For these receivers, improving their separation is vital to becoming more reliable targets. The coming weeks will be key as they aim to move off this list and show they're more than just "Bad ASS."
(Minimum 20 routes run)
George Pickens (PIT)
This was Pickens’ worst game of the season from a separation standpoint, marking his only negative score of the year. Despite this, the most impressive takeaway is that Pickens doesn’t need separation to make an impact. His 3.1% win rate in this game was enough to deliver the big play. Pickens leads the league in end zone targets and "Hero" catches with six, while ranking second in contested targets. Even when he’s tightly covered, he’s trusted to make a play.
The Bengals’ cornerbacks did an excellent job containing him to prevent any game-breaking performances, but their focus on Pickens opened up opportunities for the run game, Pat Freiermuth, and others to shine. Wilson has been an outstanding leader for this team, but one suggestion might be for him to tweak Pickens’ “first-down signal” from this past weekend so he doesn’t get penalized three times.
Jordan Addison (MIN)
Addison had his worst game of the season from a separation standpoint against the Cardinals. Their cornerbacks did an excellent job breaking on his routes and preventing him from winning deep. He posted a -0.154 separation score on vertical routes, which accounted for 36.1% of his overall routes. Additionally, he recorded just a 10% win rate on horizontal routes, his second-lowest of the season.
However, Addison still managed to capitalize on the Cardinals’ soft coverage, coming up with a few big plays despite the struggles. Overall, I’m not overly concerned about Addison. This performance appears to be more of an anomaly and reflective of a tough outing for the Vikings’ passing game as a whole.
Notable Weekly ASS
(Minimum 20 routes run)
Mike Evans (TB)
Evans looked fully healthy coming off his hamstring injury, and his 0.267 A.S.S. score highlighted just how well he performed. He’s a player I’ll be watching closely as the season winds down because he needs 479 yards to secure his 11th straight 1,000-yard season. To achieve that, he’d need to average 95.8 yards per game for the rest of the season. While it may seem like a lofty goal, Evans has been the second-best separator in the NFL this season according to overall A.S.S., and his performance in just his second week back from injury was another standout showing.
This Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, meanwhile, ranks among the worst in the NFL against the pass. That could work in Evans’ favor if their struggles continue to force the team into more passing situations. If that happens, Evans has a real shot at reaching this incredible milestone.
Xavier Legette (CAR)
The numbers aren’t overly impressive, with Legette having a target rate under 20% per route run and just one game all season where he’s averaged over 2.0 yards per route run. However, since Bryce Young took over as the starting QB and the trades of Jonathan Mingo and Diontae Johnson, Legette has posted a win rate of over 17% in five straight games. These are positive signs that he’s on track to become a good player.
In today’s NFL, the focus is often on weekly performance, leaving little room to prioritize the development of prospects. Legette was always projected as a developmental player for the Panthers, and I believe his year-two leap will come, especially with the foundation that’s being established.
The key for next season will be adding a complementary piece to play opposite Legette. As a Panthers fan, I’d love to see Tet McMillan in that role or overpaying for Tee Higgins. While it would make Legette the #2 WR, it would relieve some of the pressure on him and provide Bryce Young with the weapons needed to continue his growth. I wouldn’t buy Legette yet but the moment that they made the move for a WR I would ask the price.
Breakout Performance This Weekend
Christian Watson (GB)
Watson has been amazing over the last few weeks and the Lions are beat up on defense right now. The first game featured an injured Jordan Love and this matchup he is fully healthy. A combination of Love being healthy and the way Watson has been performing sets up for a big game. Watson has been one of the best overall separators of the year and this game sets up for multiple big plays going his way.
