2024 Week 11 DFS Coverage Shells

The following teams are on a bye in Week 11:

• Arizona Cardinals

• Carolina Panthers

• New York Giants

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Team Defenses

Quarterback Value Chart

Lucrative Passing Units

SEA @ SF

The Seattle Seahawks (4-5) travel to Santa Clara for their second matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (5-4) this Sunday afternoon. The 49ers are currently 6.5-point home favorites and own the 3rd-highest implied team total of the week (26.75).

These teams played on Thursday Night Football in Week 6, where SF went on to win 36-24.

SEA is coming off their bye week, while SF has some significant personnel differences to make note of since that Week 6 game.

WR Brandon Aiyuk is out for the season, RB Christian McCaffrey ($8,300) is set to play in his second game in 2024 after making his season debut last week, and first-round rookie WR Ricky Pearsall ($4,900) is set to play after not having appeared in the first matchup.

This game has some “coverage storylines” that are well worth covering.

SEA ranks 22nd in defensive two-high coverage usage on the season (44.3%). However, back when these teams played in Week 6, SEA deployed two-high more in that game than they have in any other game this year:

This is congruent with SF offensively. During the season, SF drops back versus two-high shells at the 6th-highest frequency among offenses (51.2%).

However, SF’s two-high dropback rate plummeted to the lowest individual mark in last week’s contest, notably Christian McCaffrey’s 2024 debut:

SF had a healthy McCaffrey for the entire 2023 regular season, and they saw the 4th-lowest rate vs two-high offensively.

So although SF has seen a heavy dose of two-high throughout 2024 (specifically vs SEA too), McCaffrey being back could draw heavier boxes and more single-high looks come Sunday.

CIN @ LAC

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) travel west to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) on Sunday Night Football. The Chargers currently stand as 1.5-point home favorites and the game total is hovering around 47.

Joe Burrow ($7,200) is priced as the QB5, while Justin Herbert ($5,300) is priced well outside of the top 15-20 QBs.

LAC HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman have been letting Herbert cook as the season has progressed. Going into their Week 5 bye, LAC ranked 2nd to last in neutral pass rate. Since their bye, LAC ranks Top 3 in neutral pass rate.

Whether it’s directly connected or not, LAC is dropping back vs two-high more often as the season progresses with a consistent uptick out of their bye, while CIN has deployed more two-high defensively over recent weeks:

Here are notable WR/TEs in this matchup:

And LAC pass catchers vs two-high coverage looks this season:

Defensively, LAC deploys the 2nd-most zone coverage in the NFL this season (81.2%), as well as the 2nd-most two-high looks (61.6%).

CIN drops back vs two-high the 2nd-most often this season among offenses (58.2%).

WR Ja’Marr Chase ($8,800) is coming off a >50 PPR point performance in last week’s game vs BAL. The big question, however, remains if teammate Tee Higgins ($6,300) will suit up vs LAC:

If Higgins plays and isn’t limited, he’s a better value than Chase, but neither of them are bad plays in vacuum:

BAL @ PIT

The Baltimore Ravens (7-3) travel to the Steel City to take on their rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2), in a highly anticipated AFC North showdown. The Ravens are currently 3-point road favorites, and the 48.5 game total is the 2nd-highest of the week.

There are a few pass catchers in this matchup that are new with their team’s following deals near the NFL trade deadline. BAL acquired WR Diontae Johnson ($4,800) from CAR, and PIT acquired WR Mike Williams ($4,100) from the NYJ.

Defensively, the Steelers deploy the most single-high coverage in the NFL (71.0%).

WR Zay Flowers ($6,900) owns a very high target share and is the Ravens’ most efficient pass catcher vs single-high looks this season:

Another coverage storyline in this game is the uptick in man for PIT defensively:

Could this be the official welcoming party for Diontae Johnson?

BAL QB Lamar Jackson ($8,000) played PIT once last season, In that game, PIT deployed single-high at a 78% clip and man coverage at a 47% clip.

On a per dropback basis, Jackson has been good against man but unbelievable against zone: