2024 Thanksgiving DFS Coverage Shells

This is the first of two articles I will be pumping out this week. In this one, I’ll cover the three Thanksgiving games, while the second article will cover the Friday-Monday games of Week 13. As usual, the second article will be published on Friday.

Team Defenses

Team Offenses

Quarterback Values

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

CHI @ DET

The first game of this triple-header begins in Detroit, with the Lions (10-1) hosting the Chicago Bears (4-7). The Lions currently own the highest implied team total on the entire Week 13 slate at 29.5 points and are 10.5-point favorites.

If this goes anything like the markets suggest, we’re looking at heavy rushing volume for DET in a positive game script, while QB Caleb Williams ($5,300) and the Bears are dropping back to pass.

Here are the pass catchers in this matchup:

Defensively, DET deploys man coverage more than any team in the NFL (43.8%).

CHI WR Keenan Allen ($5,100) is priced as the WR9 on the Thanksgiving slate. Allen owns a notably greater target share vs man coverage than he does vs zone coverage this season:

DET also ranks in the top 10 in usage of single-high coverage. Keenan Allen is targeted on a high amount of his routes vs man and single-high looks:

Additionally, DET is giving up a league-high +5.3 schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to WRs lined up in the slot, and this is where Allen has run most of his routes this season.

As for CHI defensively, they rank 5th in single-high usage (59.0%) and 7th in zone usage (74.1%).

DET drops back vs single-high more than any other offense (62.5%) and faces the 3rd-most zone coverage (71.9%).

DET WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000) is the most expensive WR on the Thanksgiving slate. St. Brown is targeted on a high amount of his routes vs zone and single-high looks:

CHI deployed zone on 85.7% of their coverage snaps vs DET last season, more than any other defense.

WR Jameson Williams ($6,100) is priced as the WR5 on the Thanksgiving slate and isn’t a bad cheaper alternative to St. Brown if you’re looking for exposure on DET pass catchers:

NYG @ DAL

The New York Giants (2-9) travel south to take on the Dallas Cowboys (4-7) for the second game on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys are currently 3.5-point home favorites, and the game total is hovering around 37.5.

This game isn’t pretty from a matchup perspective in the passing game. Both teams are rolling with backup quarterbacks Cooper Rush ($4,800) and Tommy DeVito ($4,500) on the depth chart.

Both offenses own bottom ten PFF pass block grades, while both defenses own top ten PFF pass rush grades.

Defensively, NY ranks 4th in single-high usage (62.7%) and 11th in man usage (31.5%).

This is interesting for a few reasons, but let’s take a step back first.

DAL quarterback Dak Prescott got injured and last played in Week 9 at ATL. Cooper Rush has started every game since Week 10.

From Weeks 1-9, DAL faced single-high at a top ten rate offensively (55.8%). They also faced man at the 12th-highest rate (29.2%).

With Cooper Rush starting, they’ve faced more zone than any offense (85.9%) and two-high shells at the 3rd-highest clip (66.4%).

Here are the pass catchers in this matchup:

If TE Jake Ferguson ($3,900) is once again sidelined as expected, Luke Schoonmaker ($3,400) becomes an aggressive, high-risk play if you’re into those.

Schoonmaker has been productive with Ferguson out in totality, but if we follow those previously mentioned coverage trends with Cooper Rush under center, DAL would be in line for more zone, and Schoonmaker is targeted far more often vs zone than he is vs man:

The same goes for two-high looks:

As for DAL defensively, there are coverage splits I find interesting with star pass rusher Micah Parsons.

Parsons played every game from weeks 1-4. He then missed all of weeks 5-9, then returned in week 10 and has played in every game since.

DAL deployed far more man without Parsons (weeks 5-9) than with a healthy Parsons:

When Parsons plays, DAL ranks 5th in zone usage (77.7%). Parsons is set to play this week.

These teams previously battled in Week 4 (Parsons active). NYG WR Malik Nabers ($7,100) garnered 15 targets, WR Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,700) garnered 14 targets, while the rest of the team saw a total of 9 targets.

MIA @ GB

The Miami Dolphins (5-6) travel north to take on the Green Bay Packers (8-3) at Lambeau Field on Thanksgiving night. The Packers are currently 3-point home favorites, and the game total is hovering around 47.5 points.

MIA is currently riding a three-game win streak, while GB is riding a two-game win streak. MIA has scored 30+ points in each of its last two games.

A potential problem with this game is that these offenses rank bottom two in neutral pass rate. The weather is projected to be in the low 30s. Dropback volume is certainly something to question, and if it turns out to be low, it will be important to have high-value targets and/or explosive plays executed in this one.

Defensively, MIA ranks 10th in two-high usage (49.6%) and 11th in zone usage (72.3%).

QB Jordan Love ($6,300) ranks 3rd in fantasy points per dropback vs zone coverage (0.48) and ranks 6th vs two-high shells (0.57).

WRs Jayden Reed ($5,700) and Romeo Doubs ($4,600) (who appears unlikely to play with a concussion) own higher target shares vs both zone and two-high looks:

QB Tua Tagovailoa ($6,000) finished as the DK QB1 in last week’s victory vs NE. Since returning in Week 8, Tua ranks 1st in EPA/play per rbsdm.com/stats (.354).

Defensively, GB ranks 8th in zone coverage usage (73.1%).

TE Jonnu Smith ($4,300) has been tearing up in fantasy. Smith has finished as a top three DK TE in each of the last two games. WR Jaylen Waddle ($5,400) finished as the DK WR2 last week, but before last week’s game, Waddle finished outside of the top 30 WRs in 9 of 10 games this season.

Smith has been more productive in fantasy on a per-route basis than Waddle and WR Tyreek Hill ($6,900).